2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

Took a glance at the 10mb zonal winds and they have been steadily descending over the last couple months which is the reason why the QBO has been declining and in an easterly phase. I'm starting to believe that we will have an early major Stratospheric Warming event in December. This was a preseason gut feeling and there is early indication based on data I look at that may lead this to be a viable outcome. If this does happen, in order for North America to benefit from the outcome of this potential SSW event, it would need to take place over Siberia/Russia. I learned from past experience just last year when we had a torchy December. That year we saw a major SSW disruption over N Canada which flooded North America with warmth. This time, however, I don't see it happening over N.A. but instead across the Pole into Siberia/Russia. Interesting times ahead. Low Solar is certainly going to pay dividends this cold season.

 

 

 

True. It actually ended up stalling winter until late February and early March here. With ++QBO and uncooperative enso, it was a complete disaster. Not every season do you see your coldest temperature the 1st week of March. Lol.

[OKwx2k4]

The colors were peaking in far NMI this weekend! (but viewing conditions were anything but peak-constant rain/wind/mix/shsn). Nonetheless, I love this time of year and since you can't put 'em on hold, you do the best you can with what Nature throws down. Despite conditions, it was busier than I can ever remember. #goodtimes!

 

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Beautiful pictures and a neat piece of history! Nice tribute there to some of the hardest working, fearless types of men in American history as well.

[Tom]

As we head deeper into Autumn, I'm feeling pretty confident that the NW NAMER ridge is going to fire up and lock in for a while as we close out Octo-brrrr and head into Novem-brrrr?????  You guys know where I look to get an idea or clue where to look for troughs/ridges in the LR.  It's becoming clear to me that based on this 30mb animation below, the eastern CONUS is likely to get very cold late this month into November.  Notice the warming evolving across Siberia and western NAMER while cooling is evolving near the Aleutians & eastern N.A.  

 

 

 

 

I'd like to also mention, while the animation above verifies that something really interesting is happening in the Strat, the GEFS/GEPS are both on board in the extended that a minor disruption of the PV is to evolve very late in the month.  Check out the vectors off the 00z GEFS below...I know its La-la Land, but I will say with confidence, this will prob end up verifying due to the progression of this overall pattern.  This is getting freakin' awesome.  #CrossPolarFlow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hmmmm, I just happened to flip through the CFSv2 weeklies run and I "saw" something that looked similar to what we just experienced during the opening days of the new LRC....NE PAC ridge, SER, Archipelago Vortex....after what I see coming over the next several weeks, potentially Exhibit B of the LRC "NW Flow/Polar Vortex"...are we going to see the beginning of LRC cycle #2 during Week 3 of November (17th-23rd)???  It'll be interesting to see if this indeed is a clue going forward.  I thought I'd share with you what I'm looking at as I continue to study and analyze this fascinating pattern.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

..as we close out Octo-brrrr and head into Novem-brrrr?????

 

I remember snow flying on Halloween 2014 here Tom. Could we see a repeat? 

 

As for November. Last year, it traded places with December around SMI, highlighted by the big bliz/storm on 11/26

 

Now, we had a pair of Dec duds ('14 & '15), followed by a pair of rockin' Dec's ('16 & '17), then back to a dud month last year.

 

Unless nature's sticking with the pairs theme, I think we balance last year with a good December 2019. That's just old-school logic at work fwiw. Thoughts?

[Tom]

I remember snow flying on Halloween 2014 here Tom. Could we see a repeat? 

 

As for November. Last year, it traded places with December around SMI, highlighted by the big bliz/storm on 11/26

 

Now, we had a pair of Dec duds ('14 & '15), followed by a pair of rockin' Dec's ('16 & '17), then back to a dud month last year.

 

Unless nature's sticking with the pairs theme, I think we balance last year with a good December 2019. That's just old-school logic at work fwiw. Thoughts?

 

I've pondered about this for a while now and also weighed in on the ideas you described above.  Sometimes you need a bit of recent history and "the law of averages" to make this judgement call .  My original call was for a warm November.  Could it start off cold, warm up significantly mid-month (my Indian Summer call) and then finish off cold as the LRC begins to repeat into Cycle #2?  That's what I'm starting to think at this point for November.  As for December, there's a real good chance this month could be a real winner for our region.  I like what I'm seeing in the model world in terms of the Strat/PV Behavior, the overall surging and advancing snow cover across Canada/Eurasia over the next couple weeks, and finally, the way the LRC is developing.  All signs point to a good, if not, Great December. 

[jaster220]

I remember snow flying on Halloween 2014 here Tom. Could we see a repeat? 

 

As for November. Last year, it traded places with December around SMI, highlighted by the big bliz/storm on 11/26

 

Now, we had a pair of Dec duds ('14 & '15), followed by a pair of rockin' Dec's ('16 & '17), then back to a dud month last year.

 

Unless nature's sticking with the pairs theme, I think we balance last year with a good December 2019. That's just old-school logic at work fwiw. Thoughts?

 

BAM!  18z GFS with first little snow shower for mby @ h300 (lock it LOL)

 

[jaster220]

At the point when watching the LR models is getting interesting. Especially if you like to see 970's bombs on the East Coast 

[jaster220]

I've pondered about this for a while now and also weighed in on the ideas you described above.  Sometimes you need a bit of recent history and "the law of averages" to make this judgement call .  My original call was for a warm November.  Could it start off cold, warm up significantly mid-month (my Indian Summer call) and then finish off cold as the LRC begins to repeat into Cycle #2?  That's what I'm starting to think at this point for November.  As for December, there's a real good chance this month could be a real winner for our region.  I like what I'm seeing in the model world in terms of the Strat/PV Behavior, the overall surging and advancing snow cover across Canada/Eurasia over the next couple weeks, and finally, the way the LRC is developing.  All signs point to a good, if not, Great December. 

 

Latest Euro and UkMet seasonal have raging +AO/NAO w/zero blocking. Cueing in on the wrong signals you think? Funny that was actual conditions during 13-14 for both of those indices.

[jaster220]

Nice vid re-enforcing what Toms post above was keying in on.

 

Could New Pattern Change Unleash Chaos this Winter? (no hype, really)

 

 

[Niko]

Nice vid re-enforcing what Toms post above was keying in on.

 

Could New Pattern Change Unleash Chaos this Winter? (no hype, really)

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1183526229422592002

That must of hurt.....

[Tom]

Nice vid re-enforcing what Toms post above was keying in on.

 

Could New Pattern Change Unleash Chaos this Winter? (no hype, really)

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1183526229422592002

That's to funny...thanks for the good laugh this morning...always nice to start your day on a positive note with a smile and laughter.

[Tom]

Here are a couple climate models that have come out with their seasonal forecasts (IRI & JAMSTEC). Let's first start off with the IRI multi-ensemble which is suggesting a colder late Autumn into Winter period.

 

This model is definitely not shying away from the high-lat blocking this season. To the contrary, we have a few other notable models that are completely void of any blocking which I don't believe will happen this season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Late Winter/Early Spring...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last, but not least, we have the normally favored JAMSTEC model which for the 2nd run in a row is showing a cold winter east of the Rockies. Plenty of warmth in the Arctic regions suggesting Blocking.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2020.1oct2019.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2020.1oct2019.gif

 

 

SST configuration has backed off the Nino and more towards the ENSO neutral look every other model is suggesting with a Nino Modoki flavor.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2020.1oct2019.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1oct2019.gif

[jaster220]

That must of hurt.....

 

LOL, wrong link. That's my dumpster fire link. 

[jaster220]

Nice vid re-enforcing what Toms post above was keying in on.

 

Could New Pattern Change Unleash Chaos this Winter? (no hype, really)

 

Corrected link below

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lBszt0Egvk&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=3&t=0s

[Niko]

Corrected link below

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lBszt0Egvk&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=3&t=0s

Sounds good. Looks like we are in the jackpot! Hope it verifies amigo.

[OKwx2k4]

Latest Euro and UkMet seasonal have raging +AO/NAO w/zero blocking. Cueing in on the wrong signals you think? Funny that was actual conditions during 13-14 for both of those indices.

Theoretically, if the PAC is right, you don't even really need the NAO/AO coupled negative. It helps, but is not required if that makes any sense.

[jaster220]

Theoretically, if the PAC is right, you don't even really need the NAO/AO coupled negative. It helps, but is not required if that makes any sense.

 

Yep, just as 2013-14 proved! Nonetheless, high-lat blocking seems to be in the cards and makes total sense with the low solar, etc. I think the reason 13-14's jack-zone ended up being here in the lower lakes was due to the LACK of -NAO which normally favors the East Coast. So far, the NAO has been mostly negative much of the year and we see how that's causing all these lows along the EC. Cannot buy anything tracking up the OHV in a traditional sense. I may have to exist off of clippers/hybrids this winter with all the Big Dogs going left or right.  

[jaster220]

Corrected link below

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lBszt0Egvk&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=3&t=0s

 

From comments on vid:

 

My friend in Australia said they had the worse and longest winter in history this year. All of their weather always moves into the United States so I think we're in for major storms. Montana, Colorado, California has already proved that already.

[OKwx2k4]

From comments on vid:

Sign me up. I'd do worst in a hundred years. Anyone else?

[OKwx2k4]

@jaster, the entire so. Hemisphere strat was literally on fire all cold season. It's just now abating some and we're in their equivalent of June down there.

[Niko]

End of next week looks like a good shot of cold air coming down from Canada. Could be coldest of the season.

[Niko]

TWC on board.....Winter Outlook 2019-2020

[westMJim]

Here is a winter guess from a Cleveland Ohio TV station.

By: Mark Johnson

CLEVELAND — Get your warmest coats and your snow shovels ready!

That's according to News5 Chief Meteorologist Mark Johnson, who revealed his Winter 2019-20 Forecast on Tuesday.

Johnson said the odds favor a snowier and colder winter season for all of northern Ohio.

"My research shows that the current ocean-atmospheric conditions around the globe closely resemble those back in 1995, 2004 & 2013," said the 30-year forecasting veteran.

The winters that followed in those years averaged colder than normal and snowier than normal across our area.

The Winter of 2004-05 saw Cleveland measure its largest seasonal snowfall ever recorded - 117.9 inches. Akron and Canton shoveled 60 inches. Mansfield measured 86 inches.

The Winter of 2013-14 is well-known for its above-average snowfall and its bone-chilling cold! Major reporting cities around our area saw temperatures drop well below zero between 10 and 14 days that season. Brrrr.

[jaster220]

@jaster, the entire so. Hemisphere strat was literally on fire all cold season. It's just now abating some and we're in their equivalent of June down there.temp10anim.gif

 

Yeah, and I think they are still seeking a cause for that?? They know what causes it in the N Hemi, but down there?

[Tom]

The latest UKMET & ECMWF Super blend continue to show support for a very wet/active winter season...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1184844262879350785

[Tom]

NOAA's Winter Outlook...

 

 

The deeper we get into Winter, it seems the colder it will look...

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

The latest UKMET & ECMWF Super blend continue to show support for a very wet/active winter season...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1184844262879350785

 

any reason his image says "OLD" ??

[jaster220]

NOAA's Winter Outlook...

 

 

The deeper we get into Winter, it seems the colder it will look...

 

 

 

 

  Woah! First blues on a NOAA Seasonal winter map??  What will the lobbyists say 'bout that?  Loving the precip departures but it seems to fly in the face of many/most maps I've seen from other outlets that favor the OHV. 

[Tom]

any reason his image says "OLD" ??

It should say “Old” and then “New”

 

Edit: Go to @BenNoll Twitter

[westMJim]

  Woah! First blues on a NOAA Seasonal winter map??  What will the lobbyists say 'bout that?  Loving the precip departures but it seems to fly in the face of many/most maps I've seen from other outlets that favor the OHV. 

IF and that is a big IF at this time but if that precip were it verify that looks to be a lot of clippers. We shall see. As some long range guesses are hitting at a lot of east coast storms. 

[Niko]

NOAA's Winter Outlook...

 

 

The deeper we get into Winter, it seems the colder it will look...

 

 

 

Finally..NOAA might be putting out blue colors....Cant remember when the last time was when I saw that.

[Niko]

  Woah! First blues on a NOAA Seasonal winter map??  What will the lobbyists say 'bout that?  Loving the precip departures but it seems to fly in the face of many/most maps I've seen from other outlets that favor the OHV. 

[jaster220]

IF and that is a big IF at this time but if that precip were it verify that looks to be a lot of clippers. We shall see. As some long range guesses are hitting at a lot of east coast storms. 

 

Agree with you on that. I think this past 2 days of clipper/clipper hybrid (merging into an EC bomb cyclone at times) is certainly a prime feature of the developing LRC.  Wonder if they regretted not extending the + precip anom's further into NE the moment they hit the publish button 

[Andie]

Looks like Texas gets shut out. :/

[jaster220]

Looks like Texas gets shut out. :/

 

How were the common analog seasons for your region? 

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, and I think they are still seeking a cause for that?? They know what causes it in the N Hemi, but down there?

It's from solar. 100 percent. I already knew it was. Funny thing is they don't really include the so. Hem in a lot of models.

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like Texas gets shut out. :/

Drier in those scenarios could mean anything. It would be hard to keep a ridge in the NW and over west/central Texas. Also, they're just models, we know how "right" they are. Lol.

 

You could easily be slightly drier because of more snow and cold vs above avg temps and rain. More heat=more rain. You get what I'm saying?

[jaster220]

Drier in those scenarios could mean anything. It would be hard to keep a ridge in the NW and over west/central Texas. Also, they're just models, we know how "right" they are. Lol.

 

You could easily be slightly drier because of more snow and cold vs above avg temps and rain. More heat=more rain. You get what I'm saying?

 

We've seen this for real up here too. 1976-77 per the departure grids looks horrible up here, yet it's remembered for it's cold, constant snow OTG, and occasional bliz hits. One of the historic seasons in the Lakes region for sure. 

[OKwx2k4]

We've seen this for real up here too. 1976-77 per the departure grids looks horrible up here, yet it's remembered for it's cold, constant snow OTG, and occasional bliz hits. One of the historic seasons in the Lakes region for sure.

Snowiest and one of the driest in terms of actual water here was 2010-11. Snow takes less water. Cold air carries less water as well.

[OKwx2k4]

:) :)

 

Then there's this beauty. Holy Halloween batman!

 

That's going to retrograde and intensify some if the pattern of this mid-autumn holds steady. I'm thoroughly impressed. All smiles here if you didn't notice.