2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[jaster220]

The latest UKMET & ECMWF Super blend continue to show support for a very wet/active winter season...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1184844262879350785

 

Yeah, that's quite a nice improvement. Losing that Nino wet southland and moving it further north per La Nada is moving in the right direction. How often are those published do you know? Is that a 1 month interval? (btw, your link worked at home fine. May be some social media firewall at my office, Idk why the vid wouldn't play?)

[Tom]

Yeah, that's quite a nice improvement. Losing that Nino wet southland and moving it further north per La Nada is moving in the right direction. How often are those published do you know? Is that a 1 month interval? (btw, your link worked at home fine. May be some social media firewall at my office, Idk why the vid wouldn't play?)

Yup, once a month....dominant N stream seems to be a common theme.

[jaster220]

As a follow-up to Tom's seasonal maps

 

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north

[Andie]

Well, North Tx is on the line but it's not deep in the dry. That's okay.

We can handle somewhat warmer, it's the dry that gets us and we're in the equal chances area, so, I'll take it.

[jaster220]

OT kinda winter

 

I'm an alpine skier but these extreme dudes are more like death wishers 

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/B2Pv-fIhFuZ/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=embed_video_watch_again

[jaster220]

Chad's winter outlook from West Lafayette, IN

 

https://www.wlfi.com/content/news/Fall-Winter-Spring-2019-20-Outlook-560504641.html

 

Key thoughts:

 

Weak El Nino Modoki disguised as a La Nina at times heavy influence from other players on the field like MJO, PDO, PNA, NAO & AO will dominate the winter.  I think that sometimes it will look like full-fledged Modoki, then full-fledged La Nina. 

 

Many of the players will assert similar influence from last winter.  It will continue to be a low solar episode as sunspots will be lacking.

Thinking southeast ridge will keep temperatures warmer than normal there, but frequent Arctic intrusions into the Plains & Midwest will keep it colder than normal.

As for us, we will favor more cold than warm with a couple significant Arctic intrusions (like the past 2 winters) possible with lows to -23 to -19 & wind chills to -45 to -38.

Thinking December will be mild, but January to mid February overall rough with mild weather late February.

We will be right on the edge of the warmth & bitter cold frequently, resulting in active storm track, more winter cold & snow than normal (& potential of an even tighter temperature gradient than what the map shows).

There will also be a higher than normal number of significant temperatures swings, just like the past two winters.

Overall, many of the same patterns for the past former two winters will be repeating.

Although precipitation may run above normal here, the main corridor of heaviest precipitation for the winter is shaping up south & southeast of our area, per analog analysis.

[Madtown]

Locked n Loaded in Madtown! Let's get this party started!!!

[OKwx2k4]

Chad's winter outlook from West Lafayette, IN

 

https://www.wlfi.com/content/news/Fall-Winter-Spring-2019-20-Outlook-560504641.html

 

Key thoughts:

Weak El Nino Modoki disguised as a La Nina at times heavy influence from other players on the field like MJO, PDO, PNA, NAO & AO will dominate the winter. I think that sometimes it will look like full-fledged Modoki, then full-fledged La Nina.

Many of the players will assert similar influence from last winter. It will continue to be a low solar episode as sunspots will be lacking.

Thinking southeast ridge will keep temperatures warmer than normal there, but frequent Arctic intrusions into the Plains & Midwest will keep it colder than normal.

As for us, we will favor more cold than warm with a couple significant Arctic intrusions (like the past 2 winters) possible with lows to -23 to -19 & wind chills to -45 to -38.

Thinking December will be mild, but January to mid February overall rough with mild weather late February.

We will be right on the edge of the warmth & bitter cold frequently, resulting in active storm track, more winter cold & snow than normal (& potential of an even tighter temperature gradient than what the map shows).

There will also be a higher than normal number of significant temperatures swings, just like the past two winters.

Overall, many of the same patterns for the past former two winters will be repeating.

Although precipitation may run above normal here, the main corridor of heaviest precipitation for the winter is shaping up south & southeast of our area, per analog analysis.

Not bad but I don't much like his late 50s analogs. Not nationwide, at least. The rest I could see a blend of happening. I only dislike them because I think we're much further past a major Niño chronologically than the late 50s. I'm thinking 1961-65 ish era more applies. I doubt we're proceeding a large eastern Pac Nino either. Those years just make no logical sense to me.

[OKwx2k4]

Various comparable ENSO stuff for reference and general info.

Thought it may be useful to most of us given the term "modoki" being somewhat confusing at times. None are ever going to be exactly the same as this year (or any year the same) but it beats scratching your head when we reference it.

 

[OKwx2k4]

SSTAs from both Tidbits and OSPO for comparison to above post.

[OKwx2k4]

Kaplan's SST anomalies reconstruction back to 1856. Have fun!

https://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/DataAccess.pl?DB_dataset=Kaplan+Extended+SST+V2&DB_variable=Sea+Surface+Temperature&DB_statistic=Anomaly&DB_tid=76121&DB_did=80&DB_vid=1710

[Andie]

Looks like La Nada is going to shut out the southern tier.

Okwx may see some winter, but Texas is shaping up to be deadly dull.

I shudder to think I'll be looking at a dry winter. It's hard as hell on everything here.

[snowstorm83]

Late to the party but the NOAA youtube video on their outlook kind of explains it more: 

 

They get a lot of hate for always predicting above normal temps for seasonal outlooks - but they're usually right so it's understandable they'd go the safest route. It's for sure looking possible that the core of any below normal temperatures will be in the Upper Midwest again. Not that I think it'll be a carbon copy of last winter or anything, but the overall picture might be similar. But for Nebraska, the active pattern in southeast NE could easily shift back to the Norfolk area and we're back to a 15-20" season. 

[jaster220]

Various comparable ENSO stuff for reference and general info.

Thought it may be useful to most of us given the term "modoki" being somewhat confusing at times. None are ever going to be exactly the same as this year (or any year the same) but it beats scratching your head when we reference it.

 

consensus.jpg

Modoki_SST.jpg

1963_64sst_sep_MARCH.jpg

1994_95sst_sep_MARCH.jpg

1977_78sst_sep_MARCH.jpg

 

Of those, only 77-78 was good around SMI, so let's hope that's the one this mimics most closely, lol

 

UkMet wants to rock this region in Feb, at least precip-wise

 

[Niko]

Of those, only 77-78 was good around SMI, so let's hope that's the one this mimics most closely, lol

 

UkMet wants to rock this region in Feb, at least precip-wise

 

20191014 UkMET Snow Anom for FEB 2020.png

The EC gets creamed! Also Toms pl as well.

[Tom]

I've been talking about the Strat for a while now and showing what the models have been advertising.  I learned a lot from Judah Cohen and his Blog yesterday concurs with what I've been showing.  Quite an interesting read.

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Here's a tidbit from his Blog regarding the PV:

 

 

 

The plot of Wave Activity Flux (WAFz) or poleward heat transport shows mostly normal WAFz for this week but a new weak pulse is predicted for the last week of October (Figure 12). The weak pulse of WAFz the end of October is predicted to cause a minor disruption of the PV as seen by the warming of stratospheric PCHs and the negative trend in the stratospheric AO 

 

 

 

 

November Outlook....Could this season end up having Wall-to-Wall cold???

 

[jaster220]

I've been talking about the Strat for a while now and showing what the models have been advertising.  I learned a lot from Judah Cohen and his Blog yesterday concurs with what I've been showing.  Quite an interesting read.

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Here's a tidbit from his Blog regarding the PV:

 

 

 

 

 

November Outlook....Could this season end up having Wall-to-Wall cold???

 

 

Like 13-14, this may be a winter where "warm spells" are just a stretch of a few normal days. 

[Niko]

Cant wait to see the November, final Winter Outlooks when they come out.

[OKwx2k4]

I've been talking about the Strat for a while now and showing what the models have been advertising. I learned a lot from Judah Cohen and his Blog yesterday concurs with what I've been showing. Quite an interesting read.

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Here's a tidbit from his Blog regarding the PV:

 

 

 

 

 

November Outlook....Could this season end up having Wall-to-Wall cold???

 

When that flow finally jams up and connects under that ridge, we're all (anyone east of Denver CO.) in winter heaven. We have to realize that we are doing October on Polar input alone. It's hard to say how incredible this will be will all but guaranteed blocking out over the NE. That tropical system in our models, demonstrates the early season weak blocking pretty well. It literally turns right, hard over the ocean. Very cool!

[bud2380]

From DVN today.

 

 

Cool weather next week looks to possibly become active again towards
Thursday, as the ECMWF moves clipper type system from west to
east. That`s the type of system that the CPC outlook hints at,
that could be a common event this winter!

[hlcater]

Generally colder falls lead to warmer winters. Not fool proof, but a general rule of thumb

[jaster220]

Looks like La Nada is going to shut out the southern tier.

Okwx may see some winter, but Texas is shaping up to be deadly dull.

I shudder to think I'll be looking at a dry winter. It's hard as hell on everything here.

 

#FOUND! 

 

Most hyped-up bullish trash-talkin' pull-out-all-the-stops (& best scenario analogs) winter outlook to date.

 

And from DFW no less.   

 

POW! = Everyone's a winner winter forecast 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5W4Klvi8QY

[Niko]

#FOUND! 

 

Most hyped-up bullish trash-talkin' pull-out-all-the-stops (& best scenario analogs) winter outlook to date.

 

And from DFW no less.   

 

POW! = Everyone's a winner winter forecast 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5W4Klvi8QY

I will need 2 snowthrowers if it all comes to play. Holy macro.

 

We are in the jackpot zone w feet of snow and arctic air (coldest air) ova all of MI. Reminds me of Winter 2013-14 when they were showing these graphics back then in the Autumn of 13'. Hope it plays out amigo!

[jaster220]

Generally colder falls lead to warmer winters. Not fool proof, but a general rule of thumb

 

Was always my thoughts too, but there's a fair number that have gone on to be decent to great, and those are often the better ones for SMI.

 

Here's my short list for the Mitt, just from memory: 

 

1976, 1989, 1995, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2013

[jaster220]

I will need 2 snowthrowers if it all comes to play. Holy macro.

 

We are in the jackpot zone w feet of snow and arctic air (coldest air) ova all of MI. Reminds me of Winter 2013-14 when they were showing these graphics back then in the Autumn of 13'. Hope it plays out amigo!

 

Did you watch to the end? A question for my southern peeps. What's a McFarlan Signature?? 

[Niko]

Did you watch to the end? A question for my southern peeps. What's a McFarlan Signature?? 

[jaster220]

I will need 2 snowthrowers if it all comes to play. Holy macro.

 

We are in the jackpot zone w feet of snow and arctic air (coldest air) ova all of MI. Reminds me of Winter 2013-14 when they were showing these graphics back then in the Autumn of 13'. Hope it plays out amigo!

 

I actually preferred his prior outlook that was released on my b-day..

 

[jaster220]

Generally colder falls lead to warmer winters. Not fool proof, but a general rule of thumb

 

Was always my thoughts too, but there's a fair number that have gone on to be decent to great, and those are often the better ones for SMI.

 

Here's my short list for the Mitt, just from memory: 

 

1976, 1989, 1995, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2013

 

And here's the CIPS analogs centered around the 26th. Low and behold, I see several 6 from my list!

 

Hmm...and on 2nd look, only 2 went on to be qualified duds, 79-80 (not warm, just snowless) and 88-89 (a worse version of 2011-12 if you can believe that)

 

[jaster220]

While we hope to be chasing the ghost of 13-14, as you can see by this map, snow advance in Canada was nothing to write home about at this point. If Tom's hunch is correct, we may watch Canada fill with snow in an even more impressive way than six yrs ago. 

 

 

By Halloween (12) days later, the Hudson Bay vortex appears to have been making it's presence felt!

 

[Niko]

I actually preferred his prior outlook that was released on my b-day..

 

20190913 POW Winter Summary map.PNG

This map just gave me the chills. Gotta be the best looking map I've seen since Autumn 13'. Just beautiful!

[Niko]

While we hope to be chasing the ghost of 13-14, as you can see by this map, snow advance in Canada was nothing to write home about at this point. If Tom's hunch is correct, we may watch Canada fill with snow in an even more impressive way than six yrs ago. 

 

Oct19 2013 d292_usa.gif

 

By Halloween (12) days later, the Hudson Bay vortex appears to have been making it's presence felt!

 

Oct31 2013 d304_usa.gif

Notice how fast that snowcover expanded on southward by 31st of Oct 13'. It was a matter of time until that cold air just filtered on in that year. Kinda like a ticking bomb.

[Tom]

While we hope to be chasing the ghost of 13-14, as you can see by this map, snow advance in Canada was nothing to write home about at this point. If Tom's hunch is correct, we may watch Canada fill with snow in an even more impressive way than six yrs ago. 

 

Oct19 2013 d292_usa.gif

 

By Halloween (12) days later, the Hudson Bay vortex appears to have been making it's presence felt!

 

Oct31 2013 d304_usa.gif

 

It's interesting when you look at that snow map above from Oct '13 and you can get a sense of where nature was heading with the overall "flow" of things that year.  Western Canada and the Western CONUS (except for the mountains of course) lacked snow cover and that region overall ended up very warm from extreme ridging.  This year, something much different is happening across most of Canada and you can just sense that there will be widespread cold invading as the "Emperor From the North" will be visiting frequently this season.

 

Jan - Mar '14...

 

[jaster220]

Glad to see mega-ridging taking a break. We just had a very brief HP influence to get our chilly couple of nights but already next system influencing at 500mb  

Love it!

 

[OKwx2k4]

For jaster. Brought to you in part by Earl Barker's model page and the super long range CFSv2. Enjoy!

[jaster220]

It's interesting when you look at that snow map above from Oct '13 and you can get a sense of where nature was heading with the overall "flow" of things that year.  Western Canada and the Western CONUS (except for the mountains of course) lacked snow cover and that region overall ended up very warm from extreme ridging.  This year, something much different is happening across most of Canada and you can just sense that there will be widespread cold invading as the "Emperor From the North" will be visiting frequently this season.

 

Jan - Mar '14...

 

 

Thinking Canada's autumn outlook is kinda like a preview of our winter outlook further south.

 

Look familiar?

 

[jaster220]

For jaster. Brought to you in part by Earl Barker's model page and the super long range CFSv2. Enjoy!CONUS_CFS-NODE1_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_340HR.gif

 

Haha! That'd be a sweet one right there amigo - thx!

[OKwx2k4]

Haha! That'd be a sweet one right there amigo - thx!

I know it's a dream scenario but we have the pattern for it developing as we write. Thatd be an extreme storm by great lakes standards even for January.

[jaster220]

Ontario "sledder's outlook" 2019-20 is a great article, even if you don't ride. 

 

https://www.northernontario.travel/snowmobiling/winter-weather-forecast-2019-2020-ontario-snowmobilers-in-for-a-great-season-ahead

[jaster220]

I know it's a dream scenario but we have the pattern for it developing as we write. That'd be an extreme storm by great lakes standards even for January.

 

It would be, especially if it were to hit when we already had a decent snow cover such as the Jan 12th, 1918 bliz and ofc the CSB of '78

 

Here's my compiled list of Big Dog storms during my lifetime that impacted Marshall and the amounts/conditions based on everything I know for this city. As you can see, it will be 9 yrs since we had a "High Winds" or bliz-type of storm. I'm really hoping to see one this winter as they are my fave. Another point I'd make is that almost all our BD storms avg .75"/hr of snow. We rarely exceed that during winter biggies where it's cold enough to get typical ratios which tend to run 12 or 13:1 only a couple on that chart like Dec '00 did better. We will see 1-2"/hr during some portion of the event, usually beginning or end, but have a very difficult time maintaining such high rates for more than 3-4 hrs. 

 

[jaster220]

  Loved snow days when I was a student. Wouldn't mind one as a working adult tbh (still waiting).