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2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion


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"Where Legends Are Made"...this is the thought that popped into my mind this morning.  I think the Universe is trying to say something...sometimes we have to listen to our intuition and believe in our

Had the day off and decided to get out and enjoy the rainy day. Even tho it was mild here still, the overcast with on/off showers and breezes made it seem like the season. I guess the chilly morning w

Coeur d’Alene, Idaho/ Spokane, Washington, earliest accumulating measurable snow ever, over 100 years of records, 15 October 1930 1/2 inch of snow was recorded.

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No no, I know you weren’t drinking the kool-aid. It’s just surprising when you reread the last several years worth of winter outlooks and see what they say about December compared to how they actually played out. Not sure how it played out for your area, but around theses parts, we had several December’s that made a run at setting the all time snowless record. Quite the contrary to what was suggested.

Reading some of the main members of this thread in late NOV had me excited? (Not) for DEC. . It's probably a bias thing. Many of these people have a bias- and usually proves otherwise. HArdest thing to forecast is a bias agst your own bias. More truth in that than it seems.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This feels like a continuation of Autumn and the Winter that neva came so far. Hopefully, it does. I just hope not in April.

 

Book it! I'd enjoy these errant stretches of mild a bit more if I had some guarantee that It wasn't going to cost me an arm and leg later on when real spring weather is what I'm looking for, during actual spring. My money says we'll pay the high price for this like this past spring with miserable never-ending (-)AO/NAO chill. Thus double suckage in my book.  :rolleyes:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Reading some of the main members of this thread in late NOV had me excited? (Not) for DEC. . It's probably a bias thing. Many of these people have a bias- and usually proves otherwise. HArdest thing to forecast is a bias agst your own bias. More truth in that than it seems.

 

I will gladly say I look forward to snow in winter. I don't think I'm alone in being excited for snow as winter months (hello December) are approaching. Call it a bias if you need to, but my focus is/will always be on snow & cold during winter because that's what excites. Not interested in the other, since it can be had the majority of the calendar year. I'm very biased in what I like, so no you won't see me posting (positively) wrt torches, melt-offs, etc. I'd probably make a poor weatherman because of that so maybe it's just as well I never pursued the profession, lol. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Book it! I'd enjoy these errant stretches of mild a bit more if I had some guarantee that It wasn't going to cost me an arm and leg later on when real spring weather is what I'm looking for, during actual spring. My money says we'll pay the high price for this like this past spring with miserable never-ending (-)AO/NAO chill. Thus double suckage in my book.  :rolleyes:

Amigo..tbh, I have a veryyyyy strong feeling that we just might. :wacko:

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I think we have to.  The late Oct and Nov part of the pattern was no joke, I think we'll be in the freezer by the 7th of Jan if not sooner.

Hopes so amigo. :unsure: Seems like the cold gets pushed back by the models. Everytime 20s appear for highs in my 10 day outlook, them seemed to get replaced by 30s and or 40s (dare I saw 50s also). So, hopefully, the cold comes and stays when it does in Jan. I also have a strong feeling that sometime in January the pattern will flip crazy and deteriorate us w snow n frigid temps continuously right thru March b4 Spring arrives. :blink:

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Hopes so amigo. :unsure: Seems like the cold gets pushed back by the models. Everytime 20s appear for highs in my 10 day outlook, them seemed to get replaced by 30s and or 40s (dare I saw 50s also). So, hopefully, the cold comes and stays when it does in Jan. I also have a strong feeling that sometime in January the pattern will flip crazy and deteriorate us w snow n frigid temps continuously right thru March b4 Spring arrives. :blink:

 

 

Even if we do get an arctic intrusion, I can't imagine how it will have true staying power. This pattern/LRC is just waaayyy too up/down/up/down for that outcome. Perhaps OFA's "Polar Coaster" was a great term to coin..just sayin

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Even if we do get an arctic intrusion, I can't imagine how it will have true staying power. This pattern/LRC is just waaayyy too up/down/up/down for that outcome. Perhaps OFA's "Polar Coaster" was a great term to coin..just sayin

I agree.  I have seen thus far this season the cold in my extended forecast disappear n be replaced by warmer temps numerous times. Kudos to the models for seeing this torch from previous runs esrlier in the season. I was just hoping it was a fluke in them. Apparently, it was not.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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  • 2 weeks later...

NWS CLE

 

This is what we need(ed)

 

 

Winter 2010-2011.

It was a cold and snowy winter. A strong La Nina sent many storm systems across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A blocking pattern in Eastern Canada sent cold air southward.

The winter started slow, there was very little snow in November. Starting in early December the cold and snow was consistent.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The JMA seasonal came in last night and suggesting the SER flex's its muscle while a stout NE PAC ridge fires up which is a common denominator among the global climate models (CFS/EURO).  What they don't agree on, however, is the GOM ridge that the JMA is seeing.  I'm wondering if the Euro/CFS begin to start flashing the SER in the coming days/weeks as we get closer to FEB.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y202001.D0600_gl0.png

 

 

Temp pattern off the JMA...you can get the idea of a SW Flow regime which would end up being a much more favorable storm track across the board.

 

I added the Euro's run for Feb as well...

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y202001.D0600_gl2.png

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Super Bowl Sunday=Groundhog's Day=GHD III Storm? For anybody charting cycles, would it line up with anything? Tom, make it happen!

There's a big storm on the calendar a day or so before GHD this year...not quite on GHD but you never ya know at this distance.  Tonight's Euro Weeklies for yet another run in a row show a very favorable storm track across the Sub to close out Jan and open Feb.

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There's a big storm on the calendar a day or so before GHD this year...not quite on GHD but you never ya know at this distance.  Tonight's Euro Weeklies for yet another run in a row show a very favorable storm track across the Sub to close out Jan and open Feb.

 

Interesting. Meanwhile the grapevine elsewhere says the Euro weeklies look cold and boring and nothing interesting looms as far as the eye can see. I know you called for Vet's Day to have action, and it seemed to pop up out of nowhere. I suspect this potential will too if it indeed comes to fruition. Say, what past dates on your LRC calendar would this week's storm correlate with? Just curious. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Interesting. Meanwhile the grapevine elsewhere says the Euro weeklies look cold and boring and nothing interesting looms as far as the eye can see. I know you called for Vet's Day to have action, and it seemed to pop up out of nowhere. I suspect this potential will too if it indeed comes to fruition. Say, what past dates on your LRC calendar would this week's storm correlate with? Just curious.

Not around tonight to dig into it. I’ll try to remember in the morning for ya.

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Interesting. Meanwhile the grapevine elsewhere says the Euro weeklies look cold and boring and nothing interesting looms as far as the eye can see. I know you called for Vet's Day to have action, and it seemed to pop up out of nowhere. I suspect this potential will too if it indeed comes to fruition. Say, what past dates on your LRC calendar would this week's storm correlate with? Just curious. 

I have this weeks storm correlating with the storm we had on Dec 1 , and in the first cycle on Oct 13th.  Once again terrible teleconections may keep this storm from becoming the beast it could have been.

500_191013_12.gif

500_191201_12.gif

Jan 25-27th should feature another big storm, related to the Oct 21st storm.

500_191021_00.gif

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"Once again terrible teleconections may keep this storm from becoming the beast it could have been."

 

Story of this season? Gotta get all the players on the field and playing together. Seems a major challenge so far!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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"Once again terrible teleconections may keep this storm from becoming the beast it could have been."

 

Story of this season? Gotta get all the players on the field and playing together. Seems a major challenge so far!

No doubt about it!

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 Not to steal Tom's thunda (no offense meant to ya bud!)

 

 

OHWx has chimed-in on a potential coming colder/stormier pattern

 

 

I'm just here to spread false hope of a pattern change that'll never come default_wink.png (though we're already setting things in motion this week with a brief -EPO that does dump a good amount of cold into Canada and the eastern half of the U.S.)...

I don't totally hate the odds of a storm/event around the 23rd-25th across a good portion of the sub forum, with fairly strong ensemble support for a decent shortwave to eject out of the southwest.  With some bootleg blocking across Hudson Bay, lower heights over the southeast, and surface ridging over the top ahead of this feature, I think there's a good shot it's wintry.  850mb temperatures are near normal (after being cold for a few days prior) and are workable with the ensemble mean 0C line south of the Ohio River ahead of this wave.  If it deepens too quickly it would still cut and change the Ohio Valley to rain (or perhaps simply give them mostly/all rain), but places like Iowa/Wisconsin/Michigan, Chicago, Detroit, and maybe even Indy/Toledo/Cleveland would probably see a half decent amount of snow if an organized system can eject in this time-frame.  Places like Pittsburgh and Columbus/Dayton/Cincinnati still can snow but would likely need to root for a more strung out system, as the "blocking" to the north isn't strong enough to stop a stronger system from cutting too early for them.

 

As for the "pattern change", both the tropics and extra-tropics don't really say it should be here yet...I think the ensembles several days ago (and hence those of us rooting for a pattern change) rushed the change a bit, but things suggest it's probably still 10-15 days away from really being "there"...The MJO is at an extremely strong amplitude in phase 5/by tomorrow 6...these are not cold phases, though do usually end up being cold within 2-3 weeks of their occurrence. Here are lagged composites of what happens after a phase 6 MJO at an amplitude of 1 or greater...although the MJO accounts for something like 25% of the sub-seasonal variability observed over a large sample, this is a very strong MJO and will influence the pattern.  Each lag is 5 days. This does not suggest a more legitimate pattern change that dumps cold into the CONUS for another 10-15 days (though does suggest slightly faster high-latitude changes, which we are seeing).  Phase 7, which we'll reach in 5-7 days, leads to cold by lag 1 which is 5-10 days (and supports the timeline from a current phase 6) and is typically cold thereafter for quite a while.  Phase 8 is cold immediately and for quite a while. Basically, tropical forcing says we should not yet be cold and probably shouldn't be for another 10-15 days, so it's probably not that surprising that the mid-range guidance has delayed a persistent cold pattern but still shows one developing past day 10.  This should start moving up in time as the MJO keeps propagating. Global angular momentum (GWO, AAM, GLAAM, whatever your acronym) will rise soon, but it hasn't yet.  A low AAM is more typical of a La Nina, supports a strong stratospheric polar vortex/+AO, and trough over the western U.S.  We have been gradually climbing towards a more persistently positive AAM since the middle of fall, but it's been a slow climb, and I think the AAM slipping negative for most of December (after a couple of positive attempts in November) contributed to the strong stratospheric PV and +AO we are dealing with right now.  It spiked at the end of December, but the tropospheric pattern was horrible with a PV over Alaska and the stratospheric PV was too strong for that spike to significantly disrupt it. The strong MJO over the next two weeks, along with a fairly strong East Asian Mountain Torque (high pressure east of the mountains) will add a lot of momentum over the next two weeks, and we will see the strongest positive AAM spike of the fall/winter by far.  Here is the EPS sea level pressure anomaly forecast for hour 264 showing this strong mountain torque, along with the CFS AAM forecasts for the next month.This added momentum will help fuel an already active sub-tropical jet, will support some jabs to the stratospheric PV, and the MJO moving through the western Pacific as a +East Asian MT occurs will support significant amplification in the EPO/PNA domains.

Basically, I understand it's frustrating waiting a bit longer after over a month of really unfavorable conditions for snow for most of the sub and that it may seem like the models are perpetually pushing cold back, but there are reasons we didn't flip as quickly as the models suggested..basically the drivers didn't support it yet...and there are numerous reasons to expect it to still change soon.  The combination of factors we will see the rest of this month is unlike anything we've seen so far this fall/winter and I would be flabbergasted if it didn't result in a shakeup in the pattern.  I think the trick will be figuring out if we go back to warm in mid-late February, or if it's a more prolonged change that carries us through the rest of winter.  I don't know the answer to that yet. After the potential system around the 23rd-25th (that favors the northwestern 2/3rds of the sub) there may be a similar opportunity a few days later. Thereafter individual threats become murkier, but it should stay active and I think we see the EPO drop more than the EPS suggests in the 10-15, which will eventually push the baroclinic zone far enough south to favor the Ohio Valley over the Great Lakes. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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With only about 10 days left in the month of January, it's amazing how much the various global models differ for the month of Feb.  I took a glance at a few of them and some are cold while others are trending warmer.  With that being said, here are a few model outputs for the month of Feb:

 

1) CPC

 

t14.2c.gif

 

2) JMA Weeklies run from last week....

 

Y202001.D1512_gl2.png

 

3) CFSv2...while it has been trending MUCH warmer in recent days, suddenly, the last few runs have turn COLDER once again and are looking similar to the Euro Weeklies from yesterday.  Let's see if this is a trend or a blip.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Here is the average off the Euro Weeklies run from yesterday indicating a clear signal that the model is suggesting a building glacier smack dab across the heartland.  The model is also seeing a very active storm track across the MW/OHV.

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December to remember: yep, I’ll definitely remember enjoying drinks on the deck in shorts and tshirt the day after Christmas while trying to make another run at top 5 least snowiest on record

 

Historic January: yep, historically warmer than average with snow systems that leave you will less otg than what you started with

 

What’s the call for February - epic, legendary, monumental?

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December to remember: yep, I’ll definitely remember enjoying drinks on the deck in shorts and tshirt the day after Christmas while trying to make another run at top 5 least snowiest on record

 

Historic January: yep, historically warmer than average with snow systems that leave you will less otg than what you started with

 

What’s the call for February - epic, legendary, monumental?

Be careful..you could be making an "Odd Statement"  :lol: ;)

 

I am w you on this 100%........Cant wait to see what February holds for us.....

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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  • 5 weeks later...

I think we can put to rest the line of thinking that goes, "Oooh, look, a warm blob in the northeast Pacific!  Winter in the east is going to be awesome!"

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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