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2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion


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Definitely odd pattern but not in the realm of climate yet. Need a few more years for it to be climate shift. Will be interesting to see how this solar cycle plays into this because of lag time.

100 percent. When there is a longer pattern, I'd say we can qualify it. However, all the calling cards are showing up and they are pretty hard to refute. Warm N. Pac and a huge crash in ocean temps off the NE US within a week or 2 is a good sign.

 

I remember reading about dry air dominating the Atlantic tropical theater in 2013. That is something that bears similarity. When the Atlantic is suppressed, usually the Pacific fires off typhoons from now until December.

 

Everyone remembers the typhoon rule.

Good times ahead.

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"Where Legends Are Made"...this is the thought that popped into my mind this morning.  I think the Universe is trying to say something...sometimes we have to listen to our intuition and believe in our

Had the day off and decided to get out and enjoy the rainy day. Even tho it was mild here still, the overcast with on/off showers and breezes made it seem like the season. I guess the chilly morning w

Coeur d’Alene, Idaho/ Spokane, Washington, earliest accumulating measurable snow ever, over 100 years of records, 15 October 1930 1/2 inch of snow was recorded.

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Definitely odd pattern but not in the realm of climate yet. Need a few more years for it to be climate shift. Will be interesting to see how this solar cycle plays into this because of lag time.

 

There's also a lag time with the oceans as well. 

The water coming up from the deep ocean has not seen the sea surface since the Little Ice Age.  Maybe a coincidence, but I find it an interesting factoid.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ice, Ice, Baby...will be the theme going forward across the Archipelago region as we finish up Summer and head right into the Autumn months.  Boy, this may be a textbook signal that the early development of the "North American Vortex" for next cold season will be brewing up early and often during the month of Sept.  I firmly believe nature is going to provide us with some very early clues this month up north as temps are forecast to plummet at, or below, freezing across N Canada over the next couple weeks.  Early Ice and Snow buildup???  If the models are right, IMO, this is a tell-tale sign we will encompass "home brewed" cold across our continent.  What I'm anticipating is a vicious start to Winter across Canada that will undoubtedly introduce strong CF's across the lower 48 in September.  My worry for our farmers and early frosts/freezes is heightened based on the overall pattern going forward.  If you thought last Autumn was cold, this one may be even worse for our Sub.  

 

Let's take a look at what the CFSv2 is showing for Sept....textbook blocking "hook over the top" that screams #earlyautumn...I'm in agreement.

 

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20190802.201909.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20190802.201909.gif

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/fall-like-air-breaks-record-lows-from-early-1900s-in-parts-of-southern-us/70008881

 

Despite the 100* temps currently, the southern plains are still in the game for an early fall.

With cool air able to punch its way south, we just may have an early fall and be in Tom’s future posts!!

 

My question for now is how damp will that air be?

Last winter we were cold and it felt damp everywhere. Humidity penetrated the interiors of our home and it was miserable. But that tells me how close we are to possible snow in January.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ice, Ice, Baby...will be the theme going forward across the Archipelago region as we finish up Summer and head right into the Autumn months. Boy, this may be a textbook signal that the early development of the "North American Vortex" for next cold season will be brewing up early and often during the month of Sept. I firmly believe nature is going to provide us with some very early clues this month up north as temps are forecast to plummet at, or below, freezing across N Canada over the next couple weeks. Early Ice and Snow buildup??? If the models are right, IMO, this is a tell-tale sign we will encompass "home brewed" cold across our continent. What I'm anticipating is a vicious start to Winter across Canada that will undoubtedly introduce strong CF's across the lower 48 in September. My worry for our farmers and early frosts/freezes is heightened based on the overall pattern going forward. If you thought last Autumn was cold, this one may be even worse for our Sub.

 

Let's take a look at what the CFSv2 is showing for Sept....textbook blocking "hook over the top" that screams #earlyautumn...I'm in agreement.

 

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20190802.201909.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20190802.201909.gif

That's about like calling a 9th inning home run in the bottom of the 3rd. :) Perfection. I'm learning the true markers of a real winter to come instead of the "head fakes" I've fallen for the last 3 years. The evidence I've seen and mentioned agrees. Bring it on.

And the crowd goes wild.....

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/fall-like-air-breaks-record-lows-from-early-1900s-in-parts-of-southern-us/70008881

 

Despite the 100* temps currently, the southern plains are still in the game for an early fall.

With cool air able to punch its way south, we just may have an early fall and be in Tom’s future posts!!

 

My question for now is how damp will that air be?

Last winter we were cold and it felt damp everywhere. Humidity penetrated the interiors of our home and it was miserable. But that tells me how close we are to possible snow in January.

I think last winter was a taste test for the both of us.

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Nearing the 2012 record melt for Greenland this year. Hmmmm. Twice in 7 years. The North is baking. Usually means cold for the Great Lakes. Just kidding. Most signs point to a normal to above normal autumn temp wise.

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Nearing the 2012 record melt for Greenland this year. Hmmmm. Twice in 7 years. The North is baking. Usually means cold for the Great Lakes. Just kidding. Most signs point to a normal to above normal autumn temp wise.

Record build up of snow and ice the previous 2 years and minimal melt during summer season. #balance

 

Btw, I’m curious to hear what your seeing that points to warmth for autumn around the GL’s? IMO, after a cool/cold start to Autumn, Nov may end up on the wamer end. That’s just my first guess at this stage.

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Record build up of snow and ice the previous 2 years and minimal melt during summer season. #balance

 

Btw, I’m curious to hear what your seeing that points to warmth for autumn around the GL’s? IMO, after a cool/cold start to Autumn, Nov may end up on the wamer end. That’s just my first guess at this stage.

I would say I scour the message boards for all types of forecasts. Majority I’ve seen point to dry and warmer analogs. Nothing is set in stone when it comes to weather. I’d prefer a cooler dry fall to be honest. We’ve just been in such a cool pattern until July this year in the Great Lakes the law of averages says warm lol.

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I saw these tweets from @JudahCohen regarding the Snow Advance Index which concur to the idea of a rapid snow build up across Siberia.  This mirrors the ECMWF & UKMET super blend model precip anomalies through October in this region.  Interesting.  More clues to the cold season.  It also is seeing a weakened state of the PV early on during the development of the LRC which suggests to me blocking will be a common theme.

 

 

 

EA4tXsEWwAEkMyO.png

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Judah's posts got me thinking and digging deeper.  I've been studying the pattern and looking for more clues.  While doing so, I couldn't help but notice how much of the Northern Hemisphere is forecast to be covered with snow based off today's CFS run by Oct 1st.  I flipped through the last 10 runs and it practically paints a similar story so what we should be looking for going forward is consistency.  I'm intrigued by this bc last year the Northern Hemisphere broke records in terms of snow pack and if it starts fast right out of the gates per recent guidance, we may be in for quite a cold season.

 

See chart below...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

 

 

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Judah's posts got me thinking and digging deeper. I've been studying the pattern and looking for more clues. While doing so, I couldn't help but notice how much of the Northern Hemisphere is forecast to be covered with snow based off today's CFS run by Oct 1st. I flipped through the last 10 runs and it practically paints a similar story so what we should be looking for going forward is consistency. I'm intrigued by this bc last year the Northern Hemisphere broke records in terms of snow pack and if it starts fast right out of the gates per recent guidance, we may be in for quite a cold season.

 

See chart below...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

The way they write dates, that's actually 10/01/2019, right?

 

That's insane. Bring it on!

 

That's an entire snowed in N. Hemisphere. You all realize that. How crazy. It's a dream come true.

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The way they write dates, that's actually 10/01/2019, right?

 

That's insane. Bring it on!

 

That's an entire snowed in N. Hemisphere. You all realize that. How crazy. It's a dream come true.

Your correct, that date is in fact 10/01/19 which is nuts to think that nearly all of Russia/Siberia would have that much snow cover very early in October. I remember years past where it accurately predicted a slow start to the SAI index. The CFS model does a good job but I’d like to see these maps by Sept 1st showing a similar forecast.

 

Needless to say, there are more and more clues, just like last year, that sing on a similar tune and indicate a cold Autumn. I still believe there will be late warming in November as the cold pulls back. Hopefully we’ll end the phase of warm Decembers but if a PV disruption happens early in the Winter, then it’ll be a warm start.

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Your correct, that date is in fact 10/01/19 which is nuts to think that nearly all of Russia/Siberia would have that much snow cover very early in October. I remember years past where it accurately predicted a slow start to the SAI index. The CFS model does a good job but I’d like to see these maps by Sept 1st showing a similar forecast.

 

Needless to say, there are more and more clues, just like last year, that sing on a similar tune and indicate a cold Autumn. I still believe there will be late warming in November as the cold pulls back. Hopefully we’ll end the phase of warm Decembers but if a PV disruption happens early in the Winter, then it’ll be a warm start.

For October, that's about as snowed out as you'll ever see. You are correct. Theres going to have to be a pullback period if the early frost/freeze scenario works out.

Getting ready to go back in history and do some reading to see how a few of these situations ran out and refresh my memory a tad. Hard not to be excited though and a bit sad for the farmers. They haven't exactly had the lush "year of plenty" that I've experienced down here.

It's a twoedged sword I guess.

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I’m very concerned for our farmers and ranchers. Hard to keep going and food prices will jump a great deal, so I caution the excitement unless you have deep pockets.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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This is a couple weeks old but Terry Swails posted a pretty decent write up regarding the upcoming winter. Mentions 13-14 as a possible scenario.

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2019/07/22/SOME-CLUES-ABOUT-WINTER

Hope so, but I need that southern jet this time. I don't get lucky like I did in 2013-14 very often under that setup. It was just a significantly displaced Northern branch that worked for me.

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Well, if it flips to La Niña Texas is out of the winter running.

Hope it isn’t dry too.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Well, if it flips to La Niña Texas is out of the winter running.

Hope it isn’t dry too.

I don't think it will flip. I think we'll see what I call a hybrid. Think La Nina style blasts that get trapped against a west coast ridge with a jet extension underneath. It's going to be historic. (I think) The next month or so is very important to watch and those SSTS off Baja are pretty important as well for you and I. The rest of the folks are safely within reach of the Polar jet this winter.

If the pattern brings heavy rain back here in the next 3 weeks, we'll have an awesome winter. :)

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My step-daughter's visiting the grandparents in Russia a couple houra east of Moscow. She wrote me yesterday.."I am wearing a warm scarf on my head, my northface jacket, a hoodie and tights. Such nice summer here!" 

 

There's some chill out there boys-n-girls. Whenever it makes it's way back here, look out! For now, doing my best to ignore said mini-drought imby, and enjoy summer comfort while it's with us. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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As usual, I'm starting to look forward to Autumn this time of year, and even to a snowy winter.  There's been a lot of discussion above about how autumn will start cold, etc., suggesting that we'll all get the snow we want when winter eventually arrives.  I'm not trying to be contrary, but I think we all know that most of us on this forum look for signs of snow and cold vs. warm and dry in the Fall and Winter months. Our analysis might be a bit influenced by what we want to see happen.  So just for arguments sake, can anyone make a case for a warm/dry Fall and Winter?  What are the signs that might be showing that?  I just want to get a balanced look.  

 

Thanks!

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As usual, I'm starting to look forward to Autumn this time of year, and even to a snowy winter.  There's been a lot of discussion above about how autumn will start cold, etc., suggesting that we'll all get the snow we want when winter eventually arrives.  I'm not trying to be contrary, but I think we all know that most of us on this forum look for signs of snow and cold vs. warm and dry in the Fall and Winter months. Our analysis might be a bit influenced by what we want to see happen.  So just for arguments sake, can anyone make a case for a warm/dry Fall and Winter?  What are the signs that might be showing that?  I just want to get a balanced look.  

 

Thanks!

 

As for my ideas, I'm currently thinking it'll start cool to cold & wet across most of our Sub Forum (Sept/Oct) but then it relaxes as we head into November.  True Indian Summer may be in the cards this year before we see Winter comeback early on.  A real good chance that we may have a SSW event sometime in late Nov/early Dec which could be unprecedented.  This is a Big If, but there are signals I'm starting to look at that will impact the Strat this year. 

 

The SE ridge will be a big player to this season, as well as, high lat blocking which should aid in an active storm track once again across the Sub.  It's too early to say, but there are other factors I'm looking at which can bust the cold potential in October.  Even though the Euro Weeklies look very warm out in the 4-6 week range, I don't believe them.  The Euro is horrible at handling the warm SST's in the NE PAC.  This will be a season where knowledge of model behavior from the most recent winters of '13-'14 & '14-'15 can pay big dividends at forecasting the future for this season.  I recall vividly how bad the Euro wanted to keep placing troughs into western NAMER while the GFS handled it better.  Nonetheless, it should be a fun season so we'll just have to sit back and see what mother nature throws us.

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As usual, I'm starting to look forward to Autumn this time of year, and even to a snowy winter. There's been a lot of discussion above about how autumn will start cold, etc., suggesting that we'll all get the snow we want when winter eventually arrives. I'm not trying to be contrary, but I think we all know that most of us on this forum look for signs of snow and cold vs. warm and dry in the Fall and Winter months. Our analysis might be a bit influenced by what we want to see happen. So just for arguments sake, can anyone make a case for a warm/dry Fall and Winter? What are the signs that might be showing that? I just want to get a balanced look.

 

Thanks!

For my honest direct opinion, I'm going with warm dry September into cold, wet October down here. I still think the north is going to have issues with cold early, I've been on that train since June. Going to ride it till it crashes or blows. Lol.

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For my honest direct opinion, I'm going with warm dry September into cold, wet October down here. I still think the north is going to have issues with cold early, I've been on that train since June. Going to ride it till it crashes or blows. Lol.

Ya, I have to agree with you in terms of breaking down that ridge in Sept down south. It'll happen though later in the month of Sept when troughs get stronger.  

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As we approach the height of the sea ice melt season, I draw my attention up north into the Archipelago region of Canada. Whether you believe we are amidst of a climatic shift or not, I certainly have been intrigued by the resilience of ice cover over the past several years in this part of the world during the summer months. Keeping that in the back of my mind, the northern hemispheric pattern is going to be very favorable for the sea ice to maintain itself throughout the month of August. In fact, it may even begin growing later in August into early Sept. It's going to start getting cold up north (sub 32F) and snows are coming early. IMO, this is part of the reason why I firmly believe the early stages of the "North American Vortex" will brew up once again this cold season. "If you built it, they will come"...

 

Taking a gander at the current state of the sea ice chart below, the Northwest Passage of N Canada are solidly ice covered. Certainly looks like we will have another year where ships will not be able to pass through.

 

 

cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

Arctic temps have been running just about normal this season....

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

 

 

 

In my own opinion, models are having a devil of a time seeing cold in the longer range. More importantly, they are busting badly on where blocking is setting up. I maintain steadfast that Autumn is coming early and hard up north, farmers across southern Canada should be worried about crop failures as early freezes are in the cards. Similarly speaking, when looking back at the Autumn of '16, southern/western Canada saw very cold air build early and often, esp in October. I do anticipate this cold to build in Sept, not October, a month in advance of norm. Remember last year? We saw a similar tune. Autumn is coming...

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I'm ready. The next 3-4 days of 102* to 104* is making ANY front look very very nice.

 

Allergens are picking up down here too, for the first time since spring.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ya, I have to agree with you in terms of breaking down that ridge in Sept down south. It'll happen though later in the month of Sept when troughs get stronger.

I'm not excluding 4 days to a week of cool and crisp somewhere in the month either. That ridge keeps ping-ponging around and flexing back and forth, mostly due to NAO influence. Eventually it will lose the fight and connect with the Cali ridge. Then it will be lights out.

I think the EPS is running this pattern out a bit too long. There hasn't been 46 days like that at any time this year. There won't be in this round either. That's my $.02 worth. Lol.

 

I'd take September's version of today in a minute. :)

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As usual, I'm starting to look forward to Autumn this time of year, and even to a snowy winter.  There's been a lot of discussion above about how autumn will start cold, etc., suggesting that we'll all get the snow we want when winter eventually arrives.  I'm not trying to be contrary, but I think we all know that most of us on this forum look for signs of snow and cold vs. warm and dry in the Fall and Winter months. Our analysis might be a bit influenced by what we want to see happen.  So just for arguments sake, can anyone make a case for a warm/dry Fall and Winter?  What are the signs that might be showing that?  I just want to get a balanced look.  

 

Thanks!

I can tell you that you're in a winter forum so like you mentioned expect to always see probably somewhat skewed calls for crazy epic winters with things never seen before and predictions such as a new Ice Age coming with the planet going negative starting next year. :rolleyes:  I wouldn't ever expect a forecast for a dry warm winter anywhere in this forum even down in Texas.

I found this forum several years ago before finally creating an account last year I believe and I've never seen a call for a boring winter so it's always take things with a grain of salt I'd say. At the end of the day long term weather forecasts (60-90+ days) are still a crap shoot. Methods are getting better and it's interesting to see some of the techniques being used. I love snowstorms(not so much the cold), and that's why I hang out around here to see what's going on around the region and of course to hope for big storms this winter.

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Our focus right now, in terms of looking ahead should really be centered on watching the magnificent show of HP building over the next 240 hours in the Arctic and in Canada.

 

The tropical domain and subtropical down here are at their largest in terms of stable heat and heavy wet air. It's just the season. It's still August, no matter how desperately I want for it to be October. Lol.

 

Just watch Alaska/GOA, the Arctic, and far western NAO regions for the next 10. Fixing to watch earth's most beautiful thermo-regulation system kick in to perfection.

 

Canada may not see much above average temperatures for awhile. That's not a wish cast. There are telltale signs also when Alaska records mid-90s+ in July and they did this year.

 

In 40 days, our world down here will be a lot different, I believe. Particularly north of the Kansas border. Going to be a battle for me and Texas, possibly a rough Autumn severe season in the making too.

 

For us (Andie and I), thunder in autumn sounds ahead for winter. ;)

 

I'm excited. Very very, after looking up north today.

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I can tell you that you're in a winter forum so like you mentioned expect to always see probably somewhat skewed calls for crazy epic winters with things never seen before and predictions such as a new Ice Age coming with the planet going negative starting next year. :rolleyes:  I wouldn't ever expect a forecast for a dry warm winter anywhere in this forum even down in Texas.

I found this forum several years ago before finally creating an account last year I believe and I've never seen a call for a boring winter so it's always take things with a grain of salt I'd say. At the end of the day long term weather forecasts (60-90+ days) are still a crap shoot. Methods are getting better and it's interesting to see some of the techniques being used. I love snowstorms(not so much the cold), and that's why I hang out around here to see what's going on around the region and of course to hope for big storms this winter.

I know.  I get it.  I've been coming here for a few years now.  I just rarely post.  And I love to read all the gung-ho winter forecasts.  Every so often, I just like to see if someone will take the contrary view.  If nothing else, it helps me learn. I'm far more of an amateur than many here.  

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I know. I get it. I've been coming here for a few years now. I just rarely post. And I love to read all the gung-ho winter forecasts. Every so often, I just like to see if someone will take the contrary view. If nothing else, it helps me learn. I'm far more of an amateur than many here.

I've been drastically wrong in my state and points southeast of me for 2 winter seasons. I'm not self-preserving in the least, in regards to that. When I'm wrong I usually know it by January 1 and try to keep myself off here and from influencing opinion anymore if I miss. I still get sucked into the modeling, like everyone else. I hate that. I want snow. Shoot me. Lol.

 

One handicap I have in my region, (call it excuse or explanation, whichever you choose) is that out of the last 15 winters, I've really only had about 3 to study for the cold side. I have to go backwards to data from the 60s-80s (pre-climactic shift) and sift out what happened. Satellite era is 1979-present so you get where the problem is there. Not excuses, just learning and growing in wisdom here just as we all are. That is what makes it a challenge and a ton of fun. Even if I fail. I want to admit it and do better.

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First hint at snow in the lower 48?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_57.png

Autumn...is...coming....early...btw, if you’ve been watching the week 2 forecasts off the GFS/GEFS, they have been better than the EPS this summer. Surely, the Euro is better within day 5, but the GFS somehow does better D 7-14 oddly enough.

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Autumn...is...coming....early...btw, if you’ve been watching the week 2 forecasts off the GFS/GEFS, they have been better than the EPS this summer. Surely, the Euro is better within day 5, but the GFS somehow does better D 7-14 oddly enough.

Maybe the upgrade the GFS did is working :)

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The latest NMME run is out and it is now agreeing with the CFSv2 that ENSO neutral conditions look more and more probable as we enter Autumn.  I know the CPC gave its final El Nino advisory on 8/8 and mentioned ENSO neutral conditions are likely to prevail through Autumn/Winter.  Best case scenario???

 

 

 

 

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

 

 

 

After seeing the usually warm biased NMME painting an area of normal across the majority of our Sub Forum, I'm becoming more convinced now as data is starting to back up my ideas of a fast start to Autumn.  I've posted my reasoning a couple weeks ago, based on past experience, SST alignment across the N PAC and obviously what is transpiring right now up north in Canada.  We are going to see more data come in this week from the Japanese agencies and I'm really curious what they show this week.

 

 

I foresee a good, to great, probability of an enhanced "second severe wx season" as football season begins and strong troughs swing through our Sub.

 

 

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

 

 

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_lead1.png

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Over the years of "model watching", I don't think I've ever seen a 10-day snow map through the middle of August, painting this much snow up into the mountains of Alaska/NW Territories.  Is this the year that people shake their heads and say, "what on earth is happening?"  After seeing a very hot early/mid summer in Alaska, things are going to change abruptly to our neighbors up north.  

 

 

gfs_asnow_ak_41.png

 

 

 

 

 

Based off all the data that is coming in off the majority of the models, I'm convinced Autumn is coming a month early.  Something really peculiar is happening.  In almost La-Nina like fashion, western Canada is cooling abnormally fast and I believe this is going to be the foundation and source region of early cold outbreaks.  Snows are coming early, the cold is building early, the trends in the model world are backing up the ideas of ice/snow growing in Sept early and often during the month of Sept across Canada.

 

 

00z GEFS....I'm making a mental note of this temp anomaly come Sept-Oct...by the time we reach the heart of winter, boy oh boy, look out!

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_ak_6.png

 

 

 

I happened to notice that Tropical Tidbits now has snow weenie maps all the way out to 384hr...build that snow cover up across the N/NW portions of our continent early and often mother nature.  

 

 

gfs_asnow_namer_65.png

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Over the years of "model watching", I don't think I've ever seen a 10-day snow map through the middle of August, painting this much snow up into the mountains of Alaska/NW Territories. Is this the year that people shake their heads and say, "what on earth is happening?" After seeing a very hot early/mid summer in Alaska, things are going to change abruptly to our neighbors up north.

 

 

gfs_asnow_ak_41.png

 

 

 

 

 

Based off all the data that is coming in off the majority of the models, I'm convinced Autumn is coming a month early. Something really peculiar is happening. In almost La-Nina like fashion, western Canada is cooling abnormally fast and I believe this is going to be the foundation and source region of early cold outbreaks. Snows are coming early, the cold is building early, the trends in the model world are backing up the ideas of ice/snow growing in Sept early and often during the month of Sept across Canada.

 

 

00z GEFS....I'm making a mental note of this temp anomaly come Sept-Oct...by the time we reach the heart of winter, boy oh boy, look out!

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_ak_6.png

 

 

 

I happened to notice that Tropical Tidbits now has snow weenie maps all the way out to 384hr...build that snow cover up across the N/NW portions of our continent early and often mother nature.

 

 

gfs_asnow_namer_65.png

That's mid-September to early October weather for those folks.

Same with this long fetch of NW flow mixed with storms I've been under down here. In terms of sensible weather, it's like mid-September. The temps are warmer, of course because of sun angle. They won't be for long.

 

I'll add, the exposed water on that side of the arctic will absolutely help bury Canada in snow before fall even gets here. That's too cool. I've always read about this stuff. Fun to watch.

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The latest NMME run is out and it is now agreeing with the CFSv2 that ENSO neutral conditions look more and more probable as we enter Autumn. I know the CPC gave its final El Nino advisory on 8/8 and mentioned ENSO neutral conditions are likely to prevail through Autumn/Winter. Best case scenario???

 

 

 

 

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

 

 

 

After seeing the usually warm biased NMME painting an area of normal across the majority of our Sub Forum, I'm becoming more convinced now as data is starting to back up my ideas of a fast start to Autumn. I've posted my reasoning a couple weeks ago, based on past experience, SST alignment across the N PAC and obviously what is transpiring right now up north in Canada. We are going to see more data come in this week from the Japanese agencies and I'm really curious what they show this week.

 

 

I foresee a good, to great, probability of an enhanced "second severe wx season" as football season begins and strong troughs swing through our Sub.

 

 

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

 

 

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_lead1.png

This is a good correction and directly in line with my September prognosis I wrote the other day. I expect at least one 4-7 day period with some very cool (cold) dry air and early frosts and freezes. It's not a wish cast for me this year. I worry about the corn harvest and soybeans as they are our #1 and #2 national crops, respectively.

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More on the corn from Agweb:

""If they're six, seven, or eight million acres down on corn then that's 500 to 700 million bushels right off the carryout in one snap of the finger and that overshadows any demand cut," says Nellinger. "It's got the possibility for massive volatility on the 12th and to set the stage for further volatility all the way into harvest and this winter".

 

Given his expectations for volatility, Nellinger says now is not the time to ignore the markets.

 

"I think first and foremost, don't panic," says Nellinger. "We've seen a $.60 to almost $.70 break off the highs in corn and we've seen a fairly sizable break in beans".

 

Nellinger says farmers should always go back to what they know.

 

"Go back to what you think your yields are and what your crop insurance guarantee is and that'll help take some of the emotion out of this," says Nellinger. "Certainly though if we get rallies and some bullishness understand that there is a demand issue".

 

https://www.agweb.com/article/perspective-monday-biggest-report-20-years

 

I'll try to remember to check back in on it Monday afternoon. Should be interesting. If it comes down to weather at the end of the thing, the modeling is all pretty split right now in the 30-60 day range so I'm intrigued, to say the least.

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Taking a look at the Euro seasonal run for the Autumn months as a whole, doesn't it look very similar to last year???  Central CONUS trough??  Wet/cool across the Plains, inter-mountain west and SW???  SER???  Interesting...

 

 

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After reading some more material on the current state of the Strat, my understanding is that we are in fact descending into an easterly (-) QBO and the maps below clearly show this is happening.  Interestingly, earlier this year there were predictions we would see a westerly (+) state of the QBO but the atmosphere has decided to take a turn.  Is low solar the culprit?  I'm not sure to be honest, but what I do know is that a -QBO does increase the probability of a cold winter across North America and the Lower 48.  This is a big turn of events bc in the back of my mind I was inclined to think we would be enduring a +QBO which would only provide conflicting signals for a warmer winter. 

 

Needless to say, this only enhances our chances of a cold winter and at times, what I am starting to really lean towards, is another extreme Winter season.  Like last year, my gut was telling me that we would have a wild season.  I'm strongly leaning this way.  This is not hype as some are inclined to believe, but only, my own research as I see more and more clues that counter any ideas of a warm or boring cold season. 

 

In all honesty, I do feel very confident at this early stage, something really amazing is happening across the globe and there will be some unprecedented events this cold season across the N Hemisphere, esp in North America.  There will undoubtedly be heightened chances of multiple "Polar Vortex" intrusions and if the blocking pans out, look out for extreme cold to lock and hold.  This is going to be a fascinating winter season of 2019-2020.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif

 

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

 

 

 

 

You can monitor the state of the QBO here:  https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#uwind

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After reading some more material on the current state of the Strat, my understanding is that we are in fact descending into an easterly (-) QBO and the maps below clearly show this is happening. Interestingly, earlier this year there were predictions we would see a westerly (+) state of the QBO but the atmosphere has decided to take a turn. Is low solar the culprit? I'm not sure to be honest, but what I do know is that a -QBO does increase the probability of a cold winter across North America and the Lower 48. This is a big turn of events bc in the back of my mind I was inclined to think we would be enduring a +QBO which would only provide conflicting signals for a warmer winter.

 

Needless to say, this only enhances our chances of a cold winter and at times, what I am starting to really lean towards, is another extreme Winter season. Like last year, my gut was telling me that we would have a wild season. I'm strongly leaning this way. This is not hype as some are inclined to believe, but only, my own research as I see more and more clues that counter any ideas of a warm or boring cold season.

 

In all honesty, I do feel very confident at this early stage, something really amazing is happening across the globe and there will be some unprecedented events this cold season across the N Hemisphere, esp in North America. There will undoubtedly be heightened chances of multiple "Polar Vortex" intrusions and if the blocking pans out, look out for extreme cold to lock and hold. This is going to be a fascinating winter season of 2019-2020.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif

 

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

 

 

 

 

You can monitor the state of the QBO here: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#uwind

Same time as the persistent -AO started. May 1. Pretty nice to see.

I've read before that going post --qbo, or rising from max negative through the winter is ideal for an amazing winter. Need -NAO help, which I'm starting to see down the road. Rock on!

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Per the latest JMA seasonal run, it is practically lining up to a "T" what I had envisioned...cool/cold start, warm finish to Autumn???  In terms of the overall pattern as we approach Sept, a highly amplified pattern is poised to set up across N.A.  The CFSv2 is also suggesting a similar look for the month of Sept and into Oct.

 

Sept...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201908.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201908.D0900_gl2.png

 

 

Oct...one thing that stands out to me is the reversal of the current suppressed pattern across the GOM/Caribbean.  Could spell trouble in the tropics as the new LRC develops.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201908.D0900_gl0.png

 

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201908.D0900_gl2.png

 

 

 

Nov...if indeed the Autumn does turn out cool/cold, it's inconceivable that we see another cooler month as nature almost always has to balance itself out.  This may be the period where the pattern "reloads" and interesting things start happening in the Stratosphere.  I'm looking for an early and abrupt SSW.   This is just a gut feeling I have based on research I've done and I may be completely off.  What happens in the Strat is a crap shoot anyway and predicting a forecast is almost impossible.  Nonetheless, I like the look its showing for November as it suggest an "Indian Summer" finish to Autumn.

 

 

That's a nasty signal for a SER across the Aleutian Islands....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201908.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201908.D0900_gl2.png

 

 

 

3-month SST mean certainly favoring an ENSO neutral to possible weak La Nina???

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R90_1/Y201908.D0900_gls.png

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Courtesy to Ben Noll, here are his snowfall anomaly maps off the ECMWF through January....quite an interesting look out of the SW...early snows in the Plains???  Boy, the Rockies are looking pretty for another banner year.

 

 

ec_oct_snow.png?format=500w

 

 

 

 

ec_nov_snow.png?format=500w

ec_dec_snow.png?format=500w

 

 

ec_jan_snow.png?format=500w

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More on the corn from Agweb:

""If they're six, seven, or eight million acres down on corn then that's 500 to 700 million bushels right off the carryout in one snap of the finger and that overshadows any demand cut," says Nellinger. "It's got the possibility for massive volatility on the 12th and to set the stage for further volatility all the way into harvest and this winter".

 

Given his expectations for volatility, Nellinger says now is not the time to ignore the markets.

 

"I think first and foremost, don't panic," says Nellinger. "We've seen a $.60 to almost $.70 break off the highs in corn and we've seen a fairly sizable break in beans".

 

Nellinger says farmers should always go back to what they know.

 

"Go back to what you think your yields are and what your crop insurance guarantee is and that'll help take some of the emotion out of this," says Nellinger. "Certainly though if we get rallies and some bullishness understand that there is a demand issue".

 

https://www.agweb.com/article/perspective-monday-biggest-report-20-years

 

I'll try to remember to check back in on it Monday afternoon. Should be interesting. If it comes down to weather at the end of the thing, the modeling is all pretty split right now in the 30-60 day range so I'm intrigued, to say the least.

I’m reading some very bad economics for farmers. Deep debt and many will be out of business unless government bails them out. It’s looking very bad.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Taking a look at the Sea Ice Volume chart below, it certainly looks like we have turned the corner and plateaued as the Arctic has begun to cool off as Autumn begins to settle in up north.

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Tom, I'll be honest. If those maps are correct and Pacific forcing doesn't shift back east, the west will be the only place that sees winter this year. That's the only agreement with the euro that I have right now, as well. Looks like crap year number 4 coming for me on paper.

 

Early cold is looking sketchy as well unless its purely AO/NAO+GOM moisture feed.

 

I'm just being as objective as I can. The Pacific is starting to look like an enemy more than a friend to the south central and east folks.

 

I'm not being negative, just straight up honest. Time will tell.

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