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I want a 1978. 39 days of 1" or greater snow cover in this area would be enough to rest my hunger for a year or two. Lol.

I will have to look again, but I think that was the number of days with 20+ inches OTG in this region. 78 is #1 or 2 for double-digit snow cover days.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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"Where Legends Are Made"...this is the thought that popped into my mind this morning.  I think the Universe is trying to say something...sometimes we have to listen to our intuition and believe in our

Had the day off and decided to get out and enjoy the rainy day. Even tho it was mild here still, the overcast with on/off showers and breezes made it seem like the season. I guess the chilly morning w

Coeur d’Alene, Idaho/ Spokane, Washington, earliest accumulating measurable snow ever, over 100 years of records, 15 October 1930 1/2 inch of snow was recorded.

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Sorry for multi-posting, everyone.

 

I agree with this logic a lot. Snow in or before November is a novelty unless it's during Thanksgiving week. What I mean by that is that theres really no purpose for it and it doesn't last long. It's usually a nuisance and very ugly in a day or two.

Any time after November 20, you can hold cold longer. Mornings can drop to the low teens in November here with highs in the mid 30s during long cold stretches so it would be more worthwhile. Then you likely open December with REAL winter that lasts. My average here in November (pre-2010) used to be near one inch. I'm sure it will drop when we roll to 1990-2020 avgs here before long. Cold Thanksgivings bring families together. That's why I miss them so badly. People don't busy themselves with so many trivial things as they do in years where it's warm all winter long. In short, folks are selfish. It's sad, but true. People remember that they need one another in hard times. I wouldn't mind 10 years of hard winters just for that alone.

I miss the old days.

Couldnt have said it better!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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We did a lot of that last winter up here too, lol. Only difference here is that there are a lot of plow piles to remind one that it's still winter..

That is what makes it even more frustrating. :lol:

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Of course, you should take all this with a grain of salt, as extended weather forecasting can never be 100% accurate. Long before today's technology existed, people relied on nature to predict harsh weather—and some if it still holds true in modern times. Here are 20 signs that a rough winter is coming, according to folklore, so you can keep an eye out for more evidence:

 

1. Thicker-Than-Normal Corn Husks.

 

2. Woodpeckers Sharing a Tree.

 

3. The Early Arrival of the Snowy owl.

 

4. The Early Departure of Geese and Ducks.

 

5. The Early Migration of the Monarch butterfly.

 

6. Thick Hair on the Nape of a Cow’s Neck.

 

7. Heavy and Numerous Fogs During August.

 

8. Raccoons With Thick Tails and Bright Bands.

 

9. Mice Chewing Furiously To Get Into Your Home.

 

10. The Early Arrival of Crickets on the Hearth.

 

11. Spiders Spinning Larger-Than-Usual Webs and Entering the House in Great Numbers.

 

12. Pigs Gathering Sticks.

 

13. Ants Marching in a Line Rather Than Meandering.

 

14. Early Seclusion of Bees Within the Hive.

 

15. Unusual Abundance of Acorns.

 

16. Muskrats Burrowing Holes High on the River Bank.

 

17. “See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest.”

 

18. The Size of the Orange Band on the Woollybear (or Woollyworm) Caterpillar.

 

19. Squirrels Gathering Nuts Early to Fortify Against a Hard Winter.

 

20. Frequent Halos or Rings Around the Sun or Moon Forecasts Numerous Snowfalls.

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Of course, you should take all this with a grain of salt, as extended weather forecasting can never be 100% accurate. Long before today's technology existed, people relied on nature to predict harsh weather—and some if it still holds true in modern times. Here are 20 signs that a rough winter is coming, according to folklore, so you can keep an eye out for more evidence:

1. Thicker-Than-Normal Corn Husks.

2. Woodpeckers Sharing a Tree.

3. The Early Arrival of the Snowy owl.

4. The Early Departure of Geese and Ducks.

5. The Early Migration of the Monarch butterfly.

6. Thick Hair on the Nape of a Cow’s Neck.

7. Heavy and Numerous Fogs During August.

8. Raccoons With Thick Tails and Bright Bands.

9. Mice Chewing Furiously To Get Into Your Home.

10. The Early Arrival of Crickets on the Hearth.

11. Spiders Spinning Larger-Than-Usual Webs and Entering the House in Great Numbers.

12. Pigs Gathering Sticks.

13. Ants Marching in a Line Rather Than Meandering.

14. Early Seclusion of Bees Within the Hive.

15. Unusual Abundance of Acorns.

16. Muskrats Burrowing Holes High on the River Bank.

17. “See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest.”

18. The Size of the Orange Band on the Woollybear (or Woollyworm) Caterpillar.

19. Squirrels Gathering Nuts Early to Fortify Against a Hard Winter.

20. Frequent Halos or Rings Around the Sun or Moon Forecasts Numerous Snowfalls.

I literally just read that from the Farmer's Almanac! Here is the link with their Winter outlook☺

https://www.countryliving.com/life/travel/a28722622/farmers-almanac-winter-2019-2020-predictions/

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@ list

 

Twas familiar with most of those since a SMI guy (who really knows his trees and bugs) couldn't stop posting how overwhelming nature's signs were around here at this time six years ago. Turns out that they were "spot on" in fore-telling the worst winter in 134 years. Obviously, if we're not seeing those same signs presently, the thoughts of another '13-14 seems like a long shot. Cool stuff that wx folklore.. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Of course, you should take all this with a grain of salt, as extended weather forecasting can never be 100% accurate. Long before today's technology existed, people relied on nature to predict harsh weather—and some if it still holds true in modern times. Here are 20 signs that a rough winter is coming, according to folklore, so you can keep an eye out for more evidence:

 

1. Thicker-Than-Normal Corn Husks.

 

2. Woodpeckers Sharing a Tree.

 

3. The Early Arrival of the Snowy owl.

 

4. The Early Departure of Geese and Ducks.

 

5. The Early Migration of the Monarch butterfly.

 

6. Thick Hair on the Nape of a Cow’s Neck.

 

7. Heavy and Numerous Fogs During August.

 

8. Raccoons With Thick Tails and Bright Bands.

 

9. Mice Chewing Furiously To Get Into Your Home.

 

10. The Early Arrival of Crickets on the Hearth.

 

11. Spiders Spinning Larger-Than-Usual Webs and Entering the House in Great Numbers.

 

12. Pigs Gathering Sticks.

 

13. Ants Marching in a Line Rather Than Meandering.

 

14. Early Seclusion of Bees Within the Hive.

 

15. Unusual Abundance of Acorns.

 

16. Muskrats Burrowing Holes High on the River Bank.

 

17. “See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest.”

 

18. The Size of the Orange Band on the Woollybear (or Woollyworm) Caterpillar.

 

19. Squirrels Gathering Nuts Early to Fortify Against a Hard Winter.

 

20. Frequent Halos or Rings Around the Sun or Moon Forecasts Numerous Snowfalls.

Whether 100 percent true or not, you know I gotta love this post. :) I'm still a bit of an ozark wildman at heart. Can't help it.

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I've always been told that heavy thunderstorms in autumn foretells hard winter. 00z GFS tonight is back "on the money" if that is what I'm looking for. Its wave after wave from now till September 6th.

 

Also, I'm entering the period soon where average highs start to lose 1 per day or every other day. I CANNOT wait. I'm just hoping some of this humidity gets tamped down in the process.

 

Congrats to you folks up there who are going to be enjoying low 60s-mid 70s with brilliant sun on and off for the next couple weeks. That will feel like paradise, I'm sure.

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Here are some fun ones about thunder that I have heard. (Some I haven't, but it's thundering loudly out tonight and I can't sleep so sue me. :lol:)

 

http://superstitiondictionary.com/thunder-superstitions-folklore/

 

Thunder: Superstitions and Folklore

Posted by superstitious

…The speedy gleams the darkness swallow’d;

Loud, deep, and long the thunder bellow’d;

That night a child might understand

The devil had business on his hand.

 

from Tam O’ Shanter, by Robert Burns

 

Superstitions About Thunder

Thunder is usually a bad omen, as evidenced by the following sayings about thunder on the different days of the week:

 

If it Thunders on Sunday, the death of a great man will follow;

On Monday, the death of a woman is foretold;

On Tuesday in early summer, there will be a good harvest;

On Wednesday, the threat of war and the death of harlots;

On Thursday, an abundance of sheep and corn;

On Friday, a man of note will be murdered;

On Saturday, a great disaster is going to occur… pestilence and death.

 

An uneven number of thunder claps in quick succession will bring good luck.

 

Likewise, thunder from a clear sky foretells of good luck.

 

It is said that Thunder in February is followed by thunder on the same date in May.

 

Another superstition says that if it thunders in February, it will snow in May.

 

The number of times it thunders in January tells the number of frosts April will have.

 

If it thunders in December, there will be especially cold weather.

 

And likewise, when you hear thunder in the winter, it is a precursor to very cold weather.

 

The first thunder in spring is a sign that the winter is broken.

 

Likewise, the first thunder in spring wakes up the snakes.

 

It used to be believed that the ringing of bells could charm thunder away.

 

Making noise during a thunderstorm will cause bad luck. Playing music will bring extremely bad luck.

 

To prevent evil occurrences during a thunder storm, a candle should be lit and left to burn until the storm has passed.

 

If you have no candle, make the sign of the cross on your forehead or chest.

 

Strangely, dreaming of thunder or lightning is thought to be a good omen, foretelling good news from afar and an increase in wealth.

 

Thunder after a funeral means the spirit of the deceased has gone to Heaven.

 

A storm with thunder and lightning during a wedding ceremony foretells of bad luck for the couple.

 

Lightning and thunder will sour milk and cause eggs to rot.

 

Fish will refuse to bite when it’s thundering. However, many believe that it is best to fish for catfish while it’s thundering.

 

And finally, here’s an old superstition that is very counter-intuitive: “To have iron or steel about you during a thunder storm will bring good luck.” (Don’t try this at home)

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@ list

 

Twas familiar with most of those since a SMI guy (who really knows his trees and bugs) couldn't stop posting how overwhelming nature's signs were around here at this time six years ago. Turns out that they were "spot on" in fore-telling the worst winter in 134 years. Obviously, if we're not seeing those same signs presently, the thoughts of another '13-14 seems like a long shot. Cool stuff that wx folklore.. 

 

Just realized this. We get ants in this old place usually for a week or so during summer most years. They roam around and "meander" and we usually can tolerate their visit since it's short and any chemicals are also a danger to the pets. Plus we're a chem sensitive household besides. Well, this year was totally different in that the ants came on strong and were serious about their business marching in a line if you will. They lasted a bit longer than normal but have gone back into hiding about a week ago. Signs-n-signals from nature??

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Just realized this. We get ants in this old place usually for a week or so during summer most years. They roam around and "meander" and we usually can tolerate their visit since it's short and any chemicals are also a danger to the pets. Plus we're a chem sensitive household besides. Well, this year was totally different in that the ants came on strong and were serious about their business marching in a line if you will. They lasted a bit longer than normal but have gone back into hiding about a week ago. Signs-n-signals from nature??

Get those shovels dusted out  n ready and gas up your snowthrower buddy!! ;)

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The leaves are already starting to change around here quite quickly this last week and a half.  Probably the earliest I've ever seen or noticed before. Usually you'll have a few this time of year start turning due to heat stress and either too much or a lack of rain.  This year I'm thinking it's due to the cooler nights and days.  If the weather keeps up like this, fall definitely is coming early (I'm loving it!).  

20190827_101636.jpg

69108700_703831493465578_4937041589374550016_n.jpg

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I will have to look again, but I think that was the number of days with 20+ inches OTG in this region. 78 is #1 or 2 for double-digit snow cover days.

 

I was pretty close. I just looked and it was (only) 24 straight days with 20+ inch snow depth from 1/27/78 to 2/18/78. 

 

I didn't look at overall dbl-digit days but I'm pretty sure 2013-14 took and firmly holds that crown now. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@Madtown, we live about 45 min. north of the Twin Cities.  I will be going up to our cabin this weekend which is about 30 min. south of Duluth, so I'm very interested in seeing what the woods are looking like up there. I wouldn't mind leaves changing and falling early for the hunting season which starts in a few days. 

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Every year as we head into Fall the GFS starts advertising major cold fronts about 7-10 days out.  They only pan out about 1/4 of the time.  The GFS today compared to yesterday is way warmer over the next couple of weeks.  I guess I shouldn't be surprised.  

 

True dat. But I don't want mega-below normal in the first half of September anyways. A little below is just right. Can't control it, but if I could I'd save all the cold for when it counts. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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You guys know I like to use these maps to provide a clue in terms of LR thoughts and something rather intriguing is happening in the Strat.  I meant to make this post the other day but ran out of time in the day.  Take a look at what is beginning to happen over the Arctic regions at both 10mb & 30mb.  As we sit here on the last days of met Summer, there seems to be early signs of Strat warming starting to evolve.  This may be a reason why the PV is near record low strength according to Judah Cohen

 

 

More

As I mentioned in the blog the stratospheric #polarvortex (PV) is emerging from its summer hibernation near record weak. I find this surprising since increasing carbon dioxide cools the polar stratosphere which strengthens the PV and in the absence of dynamics should dominate.

 

 

 

 

EDD1YuIWsAUbW5Z.jpg

 

 

 

Here are the 10mb/30mb animations below...

 

 

temp10anim.gif

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

Notice where the warming is currently being driven and its clearly across NW NAMER and the Arctic regions.  This leads me to believe that there will be a lot of ridging in the right places that like to dislodge cold into the U.S.  What is the latest CFSv2 showing for this month???  An amplified N.A. pattern...right where the warming is currently occurring in the Srat.  Correlation???

 

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20190828.201909.gif

 

 

 

I've also attached the last 10 runs off the CFSv2 500mb and a clear signal is shining...

 

 

Diving deeper into the pattern and looking out into early October when the "new" LRC begins taking shape, I'm very encouraged to see the signals for an Aleutian Low/NW NAMER Ridge scenario to take shape.  This would lead to an increased possibility that we open October on a cold/active note.  My gut says we will have an amplified pattern and this will be one of the main Exhibits of the LRC.  I also do expect to see a SW ridge pop at times during this new pattern which will allow the N PAC jet to flow into the N Rockies as systems ride the northern stream into our Sub.  I have this vision in my mind of what I anticipate to see evolve during the Oct/Nov period.  In fact, I posted 500mb maps in the August Discussion of where we may be heading.  Needless to say, it involves an active N Stream with lots of blocking across Canada.  It's going to be an interesting Autumn.

 

 

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Taking a look at today's JMA weeklies we can get an idea of what the potential pattern may in fact look like as we open up October.  I'm going to pay attn to the N PAC pattern bc that is where we can use the BSR rule to sorta get an idea of what may lie ahead.  In the velocity map below, I posted the Day 17-30 range for specific reasons as it will bring us to the range where we can use this pattern (Sept 15th-28th) to get a gist of what the new LRC may hold (17-21 days out).  Check out the rising motion centered thoroughly across the the middle of the N PAC, from Hawaii on north.  This gives me an idea that the model is "seeing" a deep trough where storms will want to form...will this be the Aleutian Low??  The 500mb map below is suggesting a hint of a west coast & EC ridge with weakness across the center of the nation.  As mentioned before, I'm predicting a dominant NW Flow pattern to open up October coupled with very strong Autumn troughs/storms and early snows.  Giddy up Winter fans...this season is almost here...another memorable season is in the cards for our Sub but I'm not quite sure where the "golden spot" will end up.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201908.D2812_gl0.png

 

 

The temps map below is clearly showing anomalous warmth across the west coast and up into NW NAMER to close out the 2nd half of Sept.  It seems clear to me nature is starting to portray signs that Autumn is coming quickly this year and when it does, it may turn out to be quite harsh.  Early snow & cold will continue to build up in Canada which will not going to have any problem trying to push its way south in this type of 500mb pattern.  Migrating Canadian Geese will be plentiful flying through the air in their "V" shaped positions.  Will our northern members have some early snows to deal with along with Frosts/Freezes?

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201908.D2812_gl2.png

 

 

In terms of the SST pattern, the way its all coming together in the PAC as a whole is a textbook signal of one that screams "The Wild U.S. Winter of 2019-2020" if this holds.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R28_1/Y201908.D2812_gls.png

 

 

 

 

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I was outside yesterday and I happened to notice the biggest, I mean, the biggest spider web I've ever seen since I've lived here.  They had to be about 18" wide/tall.  It boggled my mind a bit to see such a huge web.  I've only seen them this size in a forest or somewhere near a lake/dock/etc.  That article from the Farmer's Almanac might have some validity of what is coming down the road.

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True dat. But I don't want mega-below normal in the first half of September anyways. A little below is just right. Can't control it, but if I could I'd save all the cold for when it counts. 

Agree100% :)

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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@  FA map

 

Noice!  :)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My local frost and freeze climo. This is 45 miles east of me in a "heat island" of Northwest Arkansas, but you get the idea.Screenshot_20190830-023019_Brave.jpg

 

I'm sick of 265 day grass cutting seasons.

Even after first frost, hard freeze is what counts to kill grass. My mower hasn't had many weeks off the last 4 years.

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My local frost and freeze climo. This is 45 miles east of me in a "heat island" of Northwest Arkansas, but you get the idea.attachicon.gifScreenshot_20190830-023019_Brave.jpg

 

I'm sick of 265 day grass cutting seasons.

Even after first frost, hard freeze is what counts to kill grass. My mower hasn't had many weeks off the last 4 years.

Kansas City somehow has a later first freeze date than it should.  Areas well south of us have earlier average first freeze dates.  KC's is October 28.  Springfield, MO is October 21.  Joplin, MO is October 24.  Topeka, KS is October 4!  Same latitude.  I guess there could be some heat island effect, but the airport is out in the boonies.  So that should be a mitigating factor.  

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Kansas City somehow has a later first freeze date than it should. Areas well south of us have earlier average first freeze dates. KC's is October 28. Springfield, MO is October 21. Joplin, MO is October 24. Topeka, KS is October 4! Same latitude. I guess there could be some heat island effect, but the airport is out in the boonies. So that should be a mitigating factor.

It's the same here. That's the "so-called official" date. I know better and anyone who lives here does also. Your climo isn't that much different from mine, in spite of being further north. I'm around a week to 15 days ahead of that chart some years, but if it's not recorded, well...guess it didn't happen.

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Farmers Almanac predicts a brutal Winter, but NOAA thinks differently, as usual (Warm) :rolleyes:

It always amazes me how pros can look at the same thing and get polar opposite forecasts. Guess it’s no big deal as there’s rarely any repercussions.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It always amazes me how pros can look at the same thing and get polar opposite forecasts. Guess it’s no big deal as there’s rarely any repercussions.

True. I have thought of that as well. I am not sure what details they look at that makes them trigger a different outlook from each other.

 

I do believe that its important to have similar outlooks because the consequences can affect a whole lot of people/places/farms and etc.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I did a quick look into where we are in terms of the QBO and the data continues to show we are in an easterly phase and sliding deeper into negative readings.  It will be interesting to see what the official reading will be for August when it comes out in the next few days.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

 

 

 

 

 

This is a big clue going forward in terms of what impacts we will see regarding the behavior of the Strat this coming cold season...Siberian Express???  Yes...I see you "Cross Polar Flow"...

 

 

 

 

The role of the QBO is determined by compositing seasons with easterly phase (QBO‐E) separately from seasons with westerly phase (QBO‐W). In response to the sea ice forcing in early winter, the polar vortex during QBO‐E weakens with strong stratosphere‐troposphere wave‐1 coupling and a negative Northern Annular Mode‐type response. At the surface, this results in more severe Siberian cold spells. For QBO‐W, the polar vortex strengthens in response to the sea ice forcing.
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My first stab at predicting the beginnings of the "new" 2019-2020 LRC is for a Split Flow pattern across N.A and the likelihood of an amplified NW Flow.  Unlike last year, around this time, I saw a strong signal for a SER to develop in early October due to a big ridge near and south of the Aleutians that formed during the month of September.  This years pattern across the N PAC will influence our sensible weather quite different.  A new year, a very new pattern is shaping up and one that will overwhelmingly support a dominant "North American Vortex".

 

Take a look at the N PAC SST's during mid-Sept, that blob south of the Aleutians supported a repeating SER over and over during last year's pattern.

 

anomnight.9.20.2018.gif

 

 

This year, it's taking on a different "look"...a larger area of cooler waters is starting to grow south of the Aleutians.  Not to mention, the warm blob in the E PAC that is hugging NW NAMER and the west coast, adding farther influence towards ridging into western North America...

 

anomnight.8.29.2019.gif

 

 

 

So, here we are, on this last day of met Summer, which has that Autumn-feel in the air, do not despair, "The Vortex will be with You"....

 

 

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According to forecasters the Southern Plains will be enjoying summer weather for another 7-10 days with a low likelihood of rain.

Hurrah, more heat.

:(

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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According to forecasters the Southern Plains will be enjoying summer weather for another 7-10 days with a low likelihood of rain.

Hurrah, more heat.

:(

I just saw that as well. Our changes down here are going to be a bit slower than the rest of the pack up north. But as Tom noted, as the Pac SSTs get their act together and begin to cause deeper toughing upstream, along with an amplified ridge off the SE coast of N.A. (blocking ridge vs a typical "Nina ridge",.. that more vertically oriented and tilted ridge I spoke of a few weeks back) we WILL begin to see the cooling. Its inevitable this time. You can almost re-draw the pattern over the US from the Pacific when the Nirthern latitudes uncouple from the southern latitudes. Then all you do is wait for the crashes over our states. Hence, severe wx this fall and great winter weather to follow.

I've been wrong a lot in the past, but I hadn't ever experienced a double positive qbo before either. No one had. It was chaos. It was the one out of 10 things and it messed up the whole thing for around 26-28 months when it should have relented after 12-18. I'm dead sure of cold coming this time. Just gotta get the pieces in place.

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Someone may know where to better source this and/or correct me, but I have just read that we may have had the earliest sea ice minimum date for the arctic in recorded history and we were over 900,000km2 above the hysteria year of 2012 as long with running slightly above the 11 year avg from 2007-2018.

It reversed in 10 days. That's the fastest in observed history.

 

Correct me if needed. I'm not here to present false statements.

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I just saw that as well. Our changes down here are going to be a bit slower than the rest of the pack up north. But as Tom noted, as the Pac SSTs get their act together and begin to cause deeper toughing upstream, along with an amplified ridge off the SE coast of N.A. (blocking ridge vs a typical "Nina ridge",.. that more vertically oriented and tilted ridge I spoke of a few weeks back) we WILL begin to see the cooling. Its inevitable this time. You can almost re-draw the pattern over the US from the Pacific when the Nirthern latitudes uncouple from the southern latitudes. Then all you do is wait for the crashes over our states. Hence, severe wx this fall and great winter weather to follow.

I've been wrong a lot in the past, but I hadn't ever experienced a double positive qbo before either. No one had. It was chaos. It was the one out of 10 things and it messed up the whole thing for around 26-28 months when it should have relented after 12-18. I'm dead sure of cold coming this time. Just gotta get the pieces in place.

I think you'll see a lot more cold than us.  Texas is far enough south to see the western influence hit us throughout our winters.  Olka seems to enjoy colder weather thanks to the northern push.  I think Texas will see mostly normal winter temps and perhaps a little more moisture.  But I'm not getting my hopes up this year.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I think you'll see a lot more cold than us. Texas is far enough south to see the western influence hit us throughout our winters. Olka seems to enjoy colder weather thanks to the northern push. I think Texas will see mostly normal winter temps and perhaps a little more moisture. But I'm not getting my hopes up this year.

Maybe not. For you, it depends a good bit on snowpack over KS, NW Okla, TX panhandle and that region, plus the state of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and a deepening low over NM and SW Texas to sort of throw or push the cold back and keep it from draining off to the east. I'm far enough away that I can catch a good bit of cold bleeding back off the Ozark Plateau (backdoor) here if it gets east of me and deep enough. It's the same weakness that causes ice storms here in some years (2009) as well.

 

If you like winter, I hope we both finally get one, but I definitely think you're right to use cautious optimism there. I think you'd probably take it as a win just to get that sorry ridge to diminish or migrate somewhere else for now. It will soon. It won't have a choice. If you want cold pulled down to you, in later cycles, that ridge shifting over the Desert Southwest is your friend as well. It's an anticyclone.

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Well, I'm ready for the weather to lighten up on us.

It's been quite wearing on us all. Maybe if it gets cooler or cold, they'll stop shooting each other, eh?

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It strikes me how consistent the CFS model has been at building up the Northern Hemisphere snow pack during this Autumn.  Of note, after one of the coldest Augusts in Moscow's long history, Mother Russia is going to build up her snow pack early and often in Sept which leads us into the all important month of October.  By the middle of Sept, or rather, within the next couple weeks, we'll already start seeing the snow build and expand in the heart of Eurasia.

 

Sept 17th...

 

19091700_0100.gif

 

 

Looking out another 2 weeks at the start of October and the model, along with other climate models, suggests it explodes across the entire Asian continent.

 

19100100_0100.gif

 

 

Finally, by Nov 1st, we may be setting Autumn hemispheric snow cover records if these maps come close to verifying, esp to our neighbors up north.  I've been monitoring these forecasts like a hawk and they have been steadfast.  Great signals overall.

 

19110100_0100.gif

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Summer 2019 summery

 

Grand Rapids summer 2019 summery. While it might have seemed that the summer of 2019 was hot and humid the numbers for the summer show that the summer was near average for Grand Rapids. The mean temperature at GR for this summer was 71.0 the 30 year average is 70.6 so the summer was +0.4° the highest temperature was 92 on 7/20 the 30 year average hottest day is 93, the lowest was 40 on 6/3 the 30 year average is 41. Precipitation 11.65” average is 11.14. Heating degree days 57 average is 65. Cooling Degree Days 636 average is 578. Wind average wind speed was 7.7 MPH the highest sustained wind was 44 MPH on 7/20 the highest gust was 69 MPH also on 7/20. The possible sunshine for the past summer was 63%  So all in all a summer that was near average.

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After a brief positive blip in the AO forecasting in the longer term, mostly due to a ton of activity in the bering sea and a massive hurricane Dorian, we should see the cooler trends come back to the models around day 5. I am disappointed that we didn't see the stacked cold waves verify for this month down here on the lower end of the sub, but my heart always has held that October will be the primetime showing for that and what (hopefully) the last week to 10 of September will preview for us.

 

The hints are all there, just gotta get this 4 corners ridge out of here and anchored where it can't come back.

 

To be continued....

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