Niko Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 I will tell you the way I read it. You don't want to see the words "wet" or "mix" or "average". You do want to see "snow" and/or "snowy". At least per these guy's map, we're lookin good partner. I agree... we are looking golden 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 The latest IRI seasonal multi-model ensemble has this look for mid/late Autumn into Winter...it typically has a warm bias... Late Winter... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Speaking strictly for Texas...........Stinks. We'll break out the shorts and light weight hoodies for winter. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Some interesting looking snow anomaly maps off the Euro seasonal... October...early CO snows and hints of snow near the GL's... Nov...Rockies off to a fast start.... Dec...to remember??? Jan... Feb... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 BAM Wx's analog package for the Winter... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Some interesting looking snow anomaly maps off the Euro seasonal... October...early CO snows and hints of snow near the GL's... Nov...Rockies off to a fast start.... Dec...to remember??? Jan... Feb... LOL for the Mitt. Euro says winter tries to get going...in Feb. IRI temps map(s) are not that far away from WxBell's early call tho. Something to consider. BAMwx's map looks more promising as well (very 2013-14 look) but it's all dependent on the SST's holding steady. Thx for posting these! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Wow I can't read those colored maps. The AN and BN look the same on that colored scale to my eyes. It doesn't help that I'm a bit color blind neither. LOL. I'm assuming most of the colors in the Sub are AN and if so that's awesome! Thanks for sharing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Some interesting looking snow anomaly maps off the Euro seasonal... October...early CO snows and hints of snow near the GL's... Nov...Rockies off to a fast start.... Dec...to remember??? Jan... Feb... I sure like the look of these for the Central Plains through January. Would make you think that there will be lows coming out of the Southwest US. That starts to get me excited as those can turn into potential bowling ball CO lows or sometimes cutters, though I know that doesn't always help those to the east and occasionally those cut west of here. Could be some fun times ahead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Some interesting looking snow anomaly maps off the Euro seasonal...Please for the love of God let every single one of those maps (except October) be wrong. I have a strong dislike for back-heavy Winters because it's harder to keep a snowpack in February than November or December due to sun angle 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Thank you for posting the maps Tom!! I always appreciate it. Theoretically, if we lose the rest of September to heat and dry, then the front half or more of October, (looking likely at this point, it DOES leave a large margin for a crash (or precursor wave, if you will) to cold at November's end. I'd like to deer hunt in the snow one season during Thanksgiving. It would be neat. I hunted in an ice and sleet storm in Nov 2013 or 14, but never in snow cover. I didn't rifle hunt in 2000 or I could've gotten in on the last big event we had in November down here. Either way, where's the fast forward button on this crappy season when you need one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Woah...BAM WX's October Outlook in terms of temps... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 I ended up with 7.21" while I was away. Impressive. Had a freakin' blast on the honeymoon, but I do wish I could have experienced all that rainfall back home too. We did get a little rain in Antigua. I was impressed with some of the rumbles of thunder I heard. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Woah...BAM WX's October Outlook in terms of temps... God I hope not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 That map makes sense. My highs are projected to be in the 70s early October and beyond. I would not be surprised to see some pockets of 80s. It can happen in October as Indian Summer arrives ( that is if we get our first frost first). I enjoy this type of weather in the Fall. For I.E.,you have time to prepare your yard, clean up a bit outside, rake some leaves, cover everything up and etc. Heck, even grill up some steaks and burgers for that matter. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Had a friend of mine, who is a farmer and also my asst. 7th grade basketball coach, tweet out the potential for a hard freeze at the end of the month if modeling is correct. Even some snow in the plains. Big interest for farmers. Here is the link if you're interested https://twitter.com/QTweather/status/1173646532928782337?s=20 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Woah...BAM WX's October Outlook in terms of temps... Lower right-hand corner says what I've said. It's a basic crapshoot for next month. Hard to measure. I'm at low confidence and 50/50 on anything for the next 60 days. If I had to throw something at the wall today, I'd say 4 more weeks of late summer/early fall weather through October. Down here, 2007 is probably a good year to use. I think we had relentless heat through September then a brief knockdown to comfortable mid 70s for a week, then stair stepped back up to a peak of 83, which is warm for October standards. FWIW:The winter that followed was anything but good here. Idk about anywhere north of here, but if that one makes the analog set, along with 2017, 2016 or 2012, I'm done legitimately with cold chances until late winter or early spring. Also of note, sea ice has taken a beating again since my last writing on it. Brings it to 2nd or 3rd lowest behind 2012 and 2016, if I recall. No attempts to sound negative here, but I'm not enjoying the last 3 weeks of info I'm looking at for cold weather. As in years past, October can "flip the script" in terms of what we see. Hence not pulling the trigger on a late autumn and/or winter forecast in September. Being objective. I hate what I'm looking at as of today. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 I sure like the look of these for the Central Plains through January. Would make you think that there will be lows coming out of the Southwest US. That starts to get me excited as those can turn into potential bowling ball CO lows or sometimes cutters, though I know that doesn't always help those to the east and occasionally those cut west of here. Could be some fun times ahead. Please for the love of God let every single one of those maps (except October) be wrong. I have a strong dislike for back-heavy NON-Winters because it's harder to keep imagine a snowpack in December thru February than November due to sun angle moderate Nino-type outcome. honestly! they look like a summary of last winter's disappointment. Nature gonna twist the knife left in my back from last year?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Had a friend of mine, who is a farmer and also my asst. 7th grade basketball coach, tweet out the potential for a hard freeze at the end of the month if modeling is correct. Even some snow in the plains. Big interest for farmers. Here is the link if you're interested https://twitter.com/QTweather/status/1173646532928782337?s=20That model he posted is from 2 days ago just a FYI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 That reminds me....Crop updates, as of yesterday per Reuters. https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/grains-corn-falls-on-us-crop-report-lower-crude-price Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Lower right-hand corner says what I've said. It's a basic crap-shoot for next month. Hard to measure. I'm at low confidence and 50/50 on anything for the next 60 days. If I had to throw something at the wall today, I'd say 4 more weeks of late summer/early fall weather through October. Down here, 2007 is probably a good year to use. I think we had relentless heat through September then a brief knockdown to comfortable mid 70s for a week, then stair stepped back up to a peak of 83, which is warm for October standards. FWIW:The winter that followed was anything but good here. Idk about anywhere north of here, but if that one makes the analog set, along with 2017, 2016 or 2012, I'm done legitimately with cold chances until late winter or early spring. Also of note, sea ice has taken a beating again since my last writing on it. Brings it to 2nd or 3rd lowest behind 2012 and 2016, if I recall. No attempts to sound negative here, but I'm not enjoying the last 3 weeks of info I'm looking at for cold weather. As in years past, October can "flip the script" in terms of what we see. Hence not pulling the trigger on a late autumn and/or winter forecast in September. Being objective. I hate what I'm looking at as of today. 2007 would be a good analog for a warm autumn, which it was even up this way. I clearly remember lots of mild sunny days well into color season. Not sure exactly when it turned a corner, but winter started on 12/15 with a major storm and a (cold) 10" of snow in Marshall, not the wet slushy stuff often seen at the book-ends of a winter season. 2013 was so mild, I'd given up on all the calls for a harsh winter. We were running above normal until the 3rd week of Oct. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Lower right-hand corner says what I've said. It's a basic crapshoot for next month. Hard to measure. I'm at low confidence and 50/50 on anything for the next 60 days.If I had to throw something at the wall today, I'd say 4 more weeks of late summer/early fall weather through October. Down here, 2007 is probably a good year to use. I think we had relentless heat through September then a brief knockdown to comfortable mid 70s for a week, then stair stepped back up to a peak of 83, which is warm for October standards. FWIW:The winter that followed was anything but good here. Idk about anywhere north of here, but if that one makes the analog set, along with 2017, 2016 or 2012, I'm done legitimately with cold chances until late winter or early spring. Also of note, sea ice has taken a beating again since my last writing on it. Brings it to 2nd or 3rd lowest behind 2012 and 2016, if I recall.No attempts to sound negative here, but I'm not enjoying the last 3 weeks of info I'm looking at for cold weather. As in years past, October can "flip the script" in terms of what we see. Hence not pulling the trigger on a late autumn and/or winter forecast in September. Being objective. I hate what I'm looking at as of today.I strongly beleave a big switch is coming a few years down the road as the solar minimum continues to deepens we are likey seeing the last of this warm period it gives more support that there is a leg effect and severe winters from this low solar may still be a few years away.I think many for get we never seen a case where we go from one of the strongest solar maximum cycles to now a very deep low cycle how the impending climate effects from this plays out remains to be seen.But it is in my opinion isnt going to be forecasted well and suspect the models are going to get even worse with accuracy over the next few years.bottom line enjoy the calm over all warmth because it will likey go the other way at some point in the next few years. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 19, 2019 Report Share Posted September 19, 2019 I strongly beleave a big switch is coming a few years down the road as the solar minimum continues to deepens we are likey seeing the last of this warm period it gives more support that there is a leg effect and severe winters from this low solar may still be a few years away.I think many for get we never seen a case where we go from one of the strongest solar maximum cycles to now a very deep low cycle how the impending climate effects from this plays out remains to be seen.But it is in my opinion isnt going to be forecasted well and suspect the models are going to get even worse with accuracy over the next few years.bottom line enjoy the calm over all warmth because it will likey go the other way at some point in the next few years. Oddly, on a smaller scale here in the GL's, I made a similar comment back in 2013. After 2010//2011/2012 trifecta of hot years, there was a serious sense (and a few hints) that nature was due to balance that situation, which it ended up doing during the next three years, all of which were cold. I remember saying basically something to the effect "we're going to miss this warmth". Next 3 summers, truly nice boater and beach days were counted on one hand. It was horrible! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 19, 2019 Report Share Posted September 19, 2019 2007 would be a good analog for a warm autumn, which it was even up this way. I clearly remember lots of mild sunny days well into color season. Not sure exactly when it turned a corner, but winter started on 12/15 with a major storm and a (cold) 10" of snow in Marshall, not the wet slushy stuff often seen at the book-ends of a winter season. 2013 was so mild, I'd given up on all the calls for a harsh winter. We were running above normal until the 3rd week of Oct.True. It (2013) was horrible looking until November 20th and then it never stopped til March 5th or after. I'm not really in great remembrance of what happened after the "false fall" of 2007. I think it ended up being an average winter here. I just remembered writing an 83 in my old weather book and being angry about it after seeing mid-60s highs the first week and thinking "early cold fall, early winter coming".... wrong. Bam, 83° A year I'm scared to death of though is 2008-09. I don't have any real reason to analog it this year, but I know part of descending into a colder regime would probably include a winter like that. The trees here have not experienced a severe ice storm in almost 11 seasons. We're overdue, to say the least. Either way, great feedback guys. I always enjoy it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2019 Are we going to enter Phase 1 of the MJO as the new LRC develops?? I've long believed those cold waters surrounding Australia will produce favorable MJO phases during the winter months, however, they don't necessarily produce the same results in the Autumn months. For instance, Phase 1 in Oct is shown below...I've watched the MJO cycle in 30-60 day cycles so something to ponder and consider this season moving forward. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif Phase 1 in Winter... Besides the MJO, the atmosphere is behaving in a Nino state (today's SOI reading is -35.30) while the central PAC ocean are in a La Nina base state. Just like last year, there will be conflicting signals as we were in a El Nino base state when looking at the oceans but the weather pattern behaved more like a La Nina season. This year, heading into the all important months of Oct/Nov those same signals are opposite of each other signaling another odd season of long range forecasting. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2019 Some very peculiar data is coming in that portrays an interesting potential pattern heading into the 1st week of October. Are the models going to trend towards big blocking up near the Arctic/NW Canada??? I'm seeing signals that indeed something is happening in the Strat that should translate towards a pattern that produces HP/Ridging across NW NAMER/Greenland heading into the 1st week of October when the new LRC is evolving. Check this out, at 10mb, we see warming over the last few frames Sep 13th-16th...this looks to continue...using this data, I find it useful in predicting where heights will rise 2-3 weeks in advance, leading us into the opening days of October. Now, check out both the GEFS/GEPS 500mb trends over the last 48 hrs.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 19, 2019 Report Share Posted September 19, 2019 Stepped out to cut the grass last evening. Crawling across my deck was a Woolly Bear. He was as close to full black as I've personally seen firsthand. Normally the brown in the middle is quite light, this was almost black. You had to squint to really tell it was a very dark brown. Does this mean anything? Idk, but I'll be remembering as we get into winter what i saw and see if there's any truth to that old saying or not? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 19, 2019 Report Share Posted September 19, 2019 Here is the CPC's updated guess for October https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ The fall season as a whole https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 November to December https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 The winter season https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3 And January to March https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4 We will see how this plays out. One year that I have read the winter of 2005/06 was used as a analog winter if that is the case we could see a front loaded leading to a warm January winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 19, 2019 Report Share Posted September 19, 2019 Stepped out to cut the grass last evening. Crawling across my deck was a Woolly Bear. He was a close to full black as I've personally seen firsthand. Normally the brown in the middle is quite light, this was almost black. You had to squint to really tell it was a very dark brown. Does this mean anything? Idk, but I'll be remembering as we get into winter what i saw and see if there's any truth to that old saying or not? 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 I'm being completely serious when I ask this question. In the last 10 years, have they ever predicted below normal temperatures anywhere? Surely they have? But I don't recall seeing it.They have not and only change when it actually happens. Cpc has a warm bias... for "reasons." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 CPC has nowcasted a lot of seasons in the last decade and a lot of NWS weather offices have now casted significant weather events and then went back and stated how right they were in hindsight. I've seen this before as well. It's truly dishonest really. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 The seasonal strengthening of the Polar Vortex has begun and will rapidly develop as we flip the calendar into October. By taking a look at the vectors in the animation below, western Canada and parts for the northern tier of the CONUS are likely to see the influence of early season cold. Our northern tier members may have to gear up and prep for shots of cold air which may bleed south at times as we see the pattern evolve into October. The question remains, how strong will the ridge be in the S/SE??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 October looks to start off sizzling in these parts. As it did last year, then we all know how cold it got for the rest of fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 October warmth is always welcomed by me as I enjoy this b4 the cold stuff arrive. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 I'm being completely serious when I ask this question. In the last 10 years, have they ever predicted below normal temperatures anywhere? Surely they have? But I don't recall seeing it.The links I posted last night did not work so here is the link to the CPC archive site https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/llarc.ind.php For seeing times when the CPC did have blue on their maps looks for the outlooks in past cold periods such as January 2014 and July 2009 ect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 I always hope to see no frost through mid October. That way I won't have to cover my garden while the hummingbirds are still here. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 Just quickly going through, they actually did have quite a few times when they predicted some below normal temps for certain areas. I guess that restores my faith somewhat. But I still feel like there's a definite warm bias. On a seasonal forecast, or just monthly or shorter? I think the original beef was with them never calling for a below normal season. Just saying.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 I always hope to see no frost through mid October. That way I won't have to cover my garden while the hummingbirds are still here.Hows the garden looking Hawkeye? My tomato plants are producing crazy as are the pepper plants. Cucumbers are on the last run and I have hardly starting digging my 168 hills of potatoes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 On a seasonal forecast, or just monthly or shorter? I think the original beef was with them never calling for a below normal season. Just saying..Exactly. Not once!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 Hows the garden looking Hawkeye? My tomato plants are producing crazy as are the pepper plants. Cucumbers are on the last run and I have hardly starting digging my 168 hills of potatoes. I only grow peppers, beets, and one tomato plant. The tomato(early girl) is just about crapped out already. The peppers are doing pretty well. The peppers turn red quickly this time of year so I'm giving a bunch to my neighbor. I prefer green. I just started to harvest the beets. My garden is mostly flowers for hummingbirds. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 20, 2019 Report Share Posted September 20, 2019 International Falls is already 7 days past its annual first freeze, with no freeze predicted for the next two weeks. It's latest first freeze ever was October 6, 1919. never good to be challenging futility records. Hopefully, it doesn't come to that Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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