2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[Niko]

I was the one who made the original beef.  Looking through, there were several times when they called for certain areas to have below normal temps for a three-month period, such as NDJ or DJF.  For example, in DJF 2017, they predicted below normal temps for the northern tier from Washington State into Minnesota.    

Even if they do predict BN temps (once in a lifetime that is), they will most likely end up changing it to AN temps eventually.

[jaster220]

I was the one who made the original beef.  Looking through, there were several times when they called for certain areas to have below normal temps for a three-month period, such as NDJ or DJF.  For example, in DJF 2017, they predicted below normal temps for the northern tier from Washington State into Minnesota.    

 

Thanks for looking back to confirm that. Needless to say, it's been quite rare. Seems any more, "Equal Chances" is as close to a cold winter outlook as one will see for the more populated eastern regions of the CONUS. 

[jaster220]

The links I posted last night did not work so here is the link to the CPC archive site

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/llarc.ind.php

 

For seeing times when the CPC did have blue on their maps looks for the outlooks in past cold periods such as January 2014 and July 2009 ect

 

Had a few min's to review. Couple things jumped out at me. Almost every time they called for a large swath of below normal east of the Rockies, it was down south when they were (apparently) expecting stronger Nino conditions to prevail. Did not see one instance of a DJF below normal centered over the GL's/OHV. Several times they called for above normal in this region and we went on to have a cold or very cold season (02/03, 08/09, 13/14). So basically, their track record on seasonal forecasting is so horrible as to not make their calls relevant imho. 

[westMJim]

Had a few min's to review. Couple things jumped out at me. Almost every time they called for a large swath of below normal east of the Rockies, it was down south when they were (apparently) expecting stronger Nino conditions to prevail. Did not see one instance of a DJF below normal centered over the GL's/OHV. Several times they called for above normal in this region and we went on to have a cold or very cold season (02/03, 08/09, 13/14). So basically, their track record on seasonal forecasting is so horrible as to not make their calls relevant imho. 

I have not had a chance to go thru a year by year to see how they did but they did get January and February 2014 right. They did get 2009 2003 and 2007 wrong.  But remember the statement that got me to look for their archive was 

"I'm being completely serious when I ask this question.  In the last 10 years, have they ever predicted below normal temperatures anywhere?  Surely they have?  But I don't recall seeing it" 

[OKwx2k4]

I have not had a chance to go thru a year by year to see how they did but they did get January and February 2014 right. They did get 2009 2003 and 2007 wrong. But remember the statement that got me to look for their archive was

"I'm being completely serious when I ask this question. In the last 10 years, have they ever predicted below normal temperatures anywhere? Surely they have? But I don't recall seeing it"

Lol. The topic kinda got derailed a smidge.

[jaster220]

Are we going to enter Phase 1 of the MJO as the new LRC develops??  I've long believed those cold waters surrounding Australia will produce favorable MJO phases during the winter months, however, they don't necessarily produce the same results in the Autumn months.  For instance, Phase 1 in Oct is shown below...I've watched the MJO cycle in 30-60 day cycles so something to ponder and consider this season moving forward.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

 

 

Phase 1 in Winter...

 

 

 

 

Besides the MJO, the atmosphere is behaving in a Nino state (today's SOI reading is -35.30) while the central PAC ocean are in a La Nina base state.  Just like last year, there will be conflicting signals as we were in a El Nino base state when looking at the oceans but the weather pattern behaved more like a La Nina season.  This year, heading into the all important months of Oct/Nov those same signals are opposite of each other signaling another odd season of long range forecasting.  

 

I'm curious about your comparison with a Nina. What ways (in your opinion) did we see Nina-like conditions? I feel that the early harsh conditions in Nov (flipped with Dec really) followed by a warm & dull Dec, then the mean storm track staying north in Feb was more like a moderate Nino. At least for here in MI. Were you meaning wrt the SER? Maybe it was like a "warm Nina" due to the SER being too strong? 

[jaster220]

I have not had a chance to go thru a year by year to see how they did but they did get January and February 2014 right. They did get 2009 2003 and 2007 wrong.  But remember the statement that got me to look for their archive was 

"I'm being completely serious when I ask this question.  In the last 10 years, have they ever predicted below normal temperatures anywhere?  Surely they have?  But I don't recall seeing it" 

 

Lol. The topic kinda got derailed a smidge.

 

Fair enough. I thought his questioning was specific to "seasonal outlooks", especially for DJF (i.e. Met winter). I do remember their "much below normal" monthly maps for 2014. Much easier to score on a monthly outlook imho. My prior post still stands though, basically that their history with winter seasonal outlooks is so poor I wouldn't get concerned one way or another with what their's shows. 

[Niko]

Fair enough. I thought his questioning was specific to "seasonal outlooks", especially for DJF (i.e. Met winter). I do remember their "much below normal" monthly maps for 2014. Much easier to score on a monthly outlook imho. My prior post still stands though, basically that their history with winter seasonal outlooks is so poor I wouldn't get concerned one way or another with what their's shows. 

They are very bad! Poor review by me.

 

Also ( I want to quickly bring up this), for I.E., how many times last year were you and I in a WWA instead of a WSW, meanwhile, more than 5" was in the forecast. I'd spit in their face, if I ever see one of them. They are a bunch of clowns.

[OKwx2k4]

Fair enough. I thought his questioning was specific to "seasonal outlooks", especially for DJF (i.e. Met winter). I do remember their "much below normal" monthly maps for 2014. Much easier to score on a monthly outlook imho. My prior post still stands though, basically that their history with winter seasonal outlooks is so poor I wouldn't get concerned one way or another with what their's shows.

Also very correct. It's like the Gov't sponsored version of the Farmer's Almanac. At least the almanac is somewhat entertaining and creative.

[Tom]

I'm curious about your comparison with a Nina. What ways (in your opinion) did we see Nina-like conditions? I feel that the early harsh conditions in Nov (flipped with Dec really) followed by a warm & dull Dec, then the mean storm track staying north in Feb was more like a moderate Nino. At least for here in MI. Were you meaning wrt the SER? Maybe it was like a "warm Nina" due to the SER being too strong?

In my eyes, during the entire cold season, it resembles a Niña and primarily bc of the stout SER. We also had exhibits of a dominant NW Flow mixed in with a SW Flow that contributed the Niño effect? It was certainly an interesting season for out Sub.

[OKwx2k4]

This picture explains this autumn to date....

 

What a ridge.

When you ask, "How much worse can it get?"

Tadaaa!! I have to laugh, this is awful but incredibly impressive at the same time.

[jaster220]

First WSWarning in the CONUS?

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Billings MT
309 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

MTZ067-211800-
/O.CON.KBYZ.WS.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190921T1800Z/
Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
Including the locations of Cooke City
309 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8
inches above 8000 feet, with locally heavier amounts on the
highest peaks.

* WHERE...Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains.

* WHEN...Until noon MDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travelers on the Beartooth Pass should be prepared for
rapidly changing weather conditions. Backcountry travel will be
difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...2 to 4 inches of additional snow is
expected on the Beartooth Highway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions, call 5 1 1.

Additional graphics for this hazard can be found at
http://www.weather.gov/billings

&&

$

[jaster220]

Of historical significance (but a bit OT) was this rare late Feb bomber over Ohio. 

 

 

It was an impressive Gulf Low similar to the Jan 1918 bliz. Amounts were not crazy huge, but I'll take dbl digit totals with legit blizzard conditions any time. Apparently Saginaw with 18" was one of the highest totals reported. Most like BC were in the 10-12" range. I was 5 mos old at the time and don't remember a flake, lol, tho my folks had a photo and I remember seeing it dated 1965. 

 

I cite this storm as the beginning of the 2 decade atmospheric pattern that brought historic strong storms/events to the GL's/OHV region during my youth. Sure would like to see those atmospheric fireworks return..

[Niko]

Of historical significance (but a bit OT) was this rare late Feb bomber over Ohio. 

 

1965022512.gif

 

It was an impressive Gulf Low similar to the Jan 1918 bliz. Amounts were not too high, but I'll take dbl digit totals with legit blizzard conditions any time. Apparently Saginaw with 18" was one of the highest totals reported. Most like BC were in the 10-12" range. I was 5 mos old at the time and don't remember a flake, lol, tho my folks had a photo and I remember seeing it dated 1965. 

 

I cite this storm as the beginning of the 2 decade atmospheric pattern that brought historic strong storms/events to the GL's/OHV region during my youth. Sure would like to see those atmospheric fireworks return..

That is a beauty of a LP area situated at that position. I'll take take anytime. Great map. Thanks for posting it.

[jaster220]

That is a beauty of a LP area situated at that position. I'll take take anytime. Great map. Thanks for posting it.

 

And it was friendly to Detroit area with 11.6" totals. Slightly more a bit northwest where I was (12.5" Lapeer, 13.2" Flint) at my folks place. My kind of storm with snow delivered on strong winds. 

[OKwx2k4]

Of historical significance (but a bit OT) was this rare late Feb bomber over Ohio.

 

1965022512.gif

 

It was an impressive Gulf Low similar to the Jan 1918 bliz. Amounts were not crazy huge, but I'll take dbl digit totals with legit blizzard conditions any time. Apparently Saginaw with 18" was one of the highest totals reported. Most like BC were in the 10-12" range. I was 5 mos old at the time and don't remember a flake, lol, tho my folks had a photo and I remember seeing it dated 1965.

 

I cite this storm as the beginning of the 2 decade atmospheric pattern that brought historic strong storms/events to the GL's/OHV region during my youth. Sure would like to see those atmospheric fireworks return..

Nearly every year but 1 or 2 of the 60s here was a real winter. Probably one of the best decades in winter history for eastern OK. Not necessarily monster seasons at all by any stretch, but all had snow and most were sufficiently cold from November to April.

[Niko]

And it was friendly to Detroit area with 11.6" totals. Slightly more a bit northwest where I was (12.5" Lapeer, 13.2" Flint) at my folks place. My kind of storm with snow delivered on strong winds. 

Im thinking Macomb surpass a foot or more........man, how I wish we can get one of those storms this upcoming Winter.

[jaster220]

Looks like the AO/NAO are hanging out neutral to positive thus not able to help deliver any true cold. Guess they spent all their efforts and energy delivering that miserably long drawn-out dismal spring. And (until proven wrong by something besides a d10 GFS run) I'm calling "false flag" on the forecasted negative dip going into Oct.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like the AO/NAO are hanging out neutral to positive thus not able to help deliver any true cold. Guess they spent all their efforts and energy delivering that miserably long drawn-out dismal spring. And (until proven wrong by something besides a d10 GFS run) I'm calling "false flag" on the forecasted negative dip going into Oct.

 

20190922 ao.sprd2.gif

 

20190922 nao.sprd2.gif

I'd say 50/50 on this. The NAO will likely verify due to amplification upstream and the massive block set to take place over the central then E/NE US over the period. Problem is it's a warm block. Not a cold one. It has no attachment to cold source.

 

Either way, you still get a -NAO out of the deal.

 

The more I study things, I'm not overly disappointed with the progression coming up. I'm seeing signs that this thing can't hold on forever. This is a pattern I haven't seen in a very long time, so it will be interesting to watch at least.

[Tom]

If these maps verify, one has to give props to the CFS model for forecasting a lot of snow weeks/months ago across Canada by Oct 1st.  Not to mention, the lower 48 is going to get there fair share.  Wasn't snow supposed to be a thing of the past???  Nature is going to show some intriguing signs that Ol' Man Winter is coming Fast for our friends up north....and parts of our Sub come October???  Hang on folks, bc IMHO, this season is going to be very difficult forecasting the Autumn/Winter months just by using analogs.  I have never seen such a diverse PAC ocean and the battle between the warm PDO and cool ENSO.  That reason alone, as JB has pointed out, has never happened in the SAT era.  We may be heading into the "unknown" as far as the weather pattern goes for the cold months ahead.  This is what excites me about the weather, while not "knowing" the future and living through something that has not been seen in many years, possibly decades or centuries...or maybe never??

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Central PAC SST's have cooled off quite a bit and with more cold waters building and lurking below, one has to be cautious to believe the models may be a bit to warm with their ENSO forecasts in the months ahead.

 

 

[Niko]

Looks like by the middle of next week, temps really start cooling off w nighttime lows falling into the 40s and highs in the 50s and struggling to be in low 60s.

[jaster220]

NMI...Autumn, "done right"

 

[jaster220]

If these maps verify, one has to give props to the CFS model for forecasting a lot of snow weeks/months ago across Canada by Oct 1st.  Not to mention, the lower 48 is going to get there fair share.  Wasn't snow supposed to be a thing of the past???  Nature is going to show some intriguing signs that Ol' Man Winter is coming Fast for our friends up north....and parts of our Sub come October???  Hang on folks, bc IMHO, this season is going to be very difficult forecasting the Autumn/Winter months just by using analogs.  I have never seen such a diverse PAC ocean and the battle between the warm PDO and cool ENSO.  That reason alone, as JB has pointed out, has never happened in the SAT era.  We may be heading into the "unknown as far as the weather pattern goes for the cold months ahead.  This is what excites me about the weather, while not "knowing" the future and living through something that has not been seen in many years, possibly decades or centuries...or maybe never??

 

 

 

 

 

I will gladly give props to you and the CFS if this plays out Tom. 

 

I have never seen such a diverse PAC ocean and the battle between the warm PDO and cool ENSO.  That reason alone, as JB has pointed out, has never happened in the SAT era.

 

Hmm.. I was not aware of this scenario. Yet again we find ourselves in rare territory, eh. I had to look up the PDO phases and sure enough, the +PDO corresponds with a Nino ENSO state. 

 

 

Doing some digging thru pre-1979 ENSO states and this chart should reveal the last time this combination occurred, right?

 

[jaster220]

As mentioned before, Autumn chill has been early and consistent at my In-law's region of W. Russia outside of Vladimir. I see they have Upr 30s to low 40s region-wide at roughly 8:30 pm

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Forecast hints at major changes by next Tuesday.  Highs may struggle to get out of the upper 50's and possibly 30's at night with rain around by Wednesday of next week.  This being 8 days away, I'm not assuming anything, just looks like a pattern change.  We'll see if it verifies.

[Niko]

You can definitely feel that Autumn-like feel today.

[Niko]

Forecast hints at major changes by next Tuesday.  Highs may struggle to get out of the upper 50's and possibly 30's at night with rain around by Wednesday of next week.  This being 8 days away, I'm not assuming anything, just looks like a pattern change.  We'll see if it verifies.

Same w my forecast. My highs may remain the the 50s as well. Nights look darn chilly. Hope it verifies.

[jaster220]

You can definitely feel that Autumn-like feel today.

 

Yep, very fresh out there amigo! 

 

[jaster220]

The real-deal autumn feel "up north" 

 

 

Can imagine how nice my hot Pumpkin Spice Latte would be tasting with those conditions..

[OKwx2k4]

If the last 7 of this GFS run (12z) verify, we'll all be all smiles.

 

Fingers crossed.

 

The GFS fits the progression out of this thing that I mentioned yesterday. A hard flip seems the only logical way out.

 

Bring it on.

 

Ensembles starting to become more supportive.

 

Let's see it get in that 5-9 day range over time here.

I'm a happy camper at this moment.

[OKwx2k4]

And this one's just for fun.

[OKwx2k4]

Know what this is called? Anyone?

If it holds, I call it WINNING.

Just need that ideal temperature banding right off the west coast and off Mexicali I'm looking for and "voila!".

 

With the September SOI, bumping the -30s for the majority of the month, and with low solar and (finally, after 3.5 years) descending QBO, not much to be sad about here.

 

1, 1.2 and 4 show no signs of warming in the near future while the classic Modoki region is as pretty as a picture.

 

Patience may finally pay off for once in this man's life.

[Andie]

10 day outlook is mid to high 90's. Dry.

 

Somebody give me some good news.

[weatherfan2012]

[jaster220]

And this one's just for fun.

gfs_T2m_us_61.png

 

Now that's more like it. And not centered west of the Mississippi for once. I've been peeking around and noticed that it's been abnormally cold over Russia for 2 months. We're not talking a week or two cold wave but consistent and drawn-out. I'm increasingly concerned that this finds it's way to our side during the winter months and just camps out. Also, I am more intrigued by this rare SST alignment that Tom brought to my attention with his post this morning. I'm not saying we see another 13-14 either just that a "cold one" is certainly not a stretch. I'm always reminded that just 4 yrs after the incredibly cold 77-78, we got 81-82 which actually holds the record for most days of double digit depth (61), had a higher total, and came within an inch of the max snow depth here in Marshall (26"). 

 

2013 DJF departures (just for fun):

 

[jaster220]

Notice at the end of this chart (circa 2014) where it reads "2019 colder?"

 

Maybe the low-solar/volcanism is indeed a harbinger as posted by others in here.

 

[Tom]

You know that Winter is coming early, when you go to Menards and they already have Christmas Lights/Decor on display! I’ve never seen them sell this early in the year. I thought last year was early when I saw Costco selling Christmas lights in October, but in late Sept?

[james1976]

You know that Winter is coming early, when you go to Menards and they already have Christmas Lights/Decor on display! I’ve never seen them sell this early in the year. I thought last year was early when I saw Costco selling Christmas lights in October, but in late Sept?

I was in Hobby Lobby in August and they had Christmas décor! I was like come onnnnn, lol

[jaster220]

What is seen preventing those Nor’easters and pushing the above-normal precipitation track further inland as opposed to right along the East Coast is the modest ridge just offshore the Southeast, which acts as a diverting mechanism for storms traversing the Southern Plains, forcing them northeast into the Ohio Valley instead of due east towards Georgia and Alabama. Also of note in this graphic is how the -WPO ridge and -NAO ridge are strong enough to force the tropospheric polar vortex to lower latitudes. We will discuss this more later on, but it is critical to know that there are essentially two ‘versions’ of the polar vortex: the stratospheric polar vortex, and the tropospheric polar vortex. Of course, when placed on a 3D scale they are one in the same, but given that we look at slices of the atmosphere rather than 3D graphics, it is better for us to think of two polar vortices as opposed to one. Again, this will be elaborated on later in the Stratosphere section.

 

From The Weather Centre's early winter outlook..