Clinton Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 New week but a very similar setup to what just occurred Friday. As of this moment there is a marginal threat Monday extending from central Texas up to KC. @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 ..SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the central and southern Great Plains late Monday afternoon and Monday night, posing some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Models suggest that large-scale mid-level ridging developing within the westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific will reach peak amplitude by the beginning of this period. As additional perturbations continue to dig to the east of this regime, inland of the Pacific coast, it appears that an amplifying lead short wave trough will pivot eastward across the Great Basin through Rockies vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream mid-level ridging is forecast to build across and to the east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley, while ridging also builds near and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, to the north of persistent mid-level subtropical ridging centered near the Yucatan Peninsula. This is expected to coincide with the initiation of strong cyclogenesis from eastern Colorado through western Kansas by late Monday night. A broad belt of strengthening southerly return flow will contribute to further low-level moistening across the lower Great Plains into Mississippi Valley, as far north as a stalling frontal zone in the wake of a short wave perturbation accelerating east-northeast of the Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes. This front is forecast to sharpen while slowly returning northward through southern portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late Monday night. At the same time, as a mid-level low of Arctic origins lingers near/southeast of Hudson Bay, associated cold surface air may begin to advance southward into portions of the northern Great Plains and upper Great Lakes region. The Tuesday threat looks to be slightly further SW from the previous storm and will likely included KC and Des Moines then east toward Chicago. KC has been in somewhat of a severe weather drought the last few years but with highs in the low 80s and a potentially well timed dry line there should be enough energy for some organized super cells. ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that the westerlies will become rather amplified across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America by late next week into next weekend. It appears that this will include building mid-level ridging centered near the Pacific coast, with downstream developments a bit more unclear. However, beneath at least a broadly confluent mid/upper flow, cold surface ridging may tend to prevail east of the Rockies, with generally low severe weather potential. Prior to these developments, strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed across the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday through Tuesday night, in response to a significant short trough emerging from the Intermountain West. It still appears that, as the center of the deepening cyclone migrates from the north central Kansas vicinity through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa during the late afternoon and early evening, a trailing dryline advancing across the Missouri/Kansas border vicinity might provide one focus for intense thunderstorm initiation. There remains at least some signal within the various model output that convection may initiate earlier within the open warm sector to the east, and it remains unclear what influence this might have on subsequent thunderstorm development. Barring this complication, a period of sustained, long track discrete supercell development may be possible, as strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow advects cells away from the dryline through the moist warm sector. This probably would be accompanied by potential for strong tornadoes and large hail. Thereafter, as a trailing cold front overtakes the dryline and surges eastward across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys, an organizing squall line may be accompanied by strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The cold side looks to produce heavy snow over the Dakotas and the snow could make its way over toward @Madtown. Hopefully we all get a little better drink of water than the previous system as things look to really dry out in the long range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 0z EPS...Big Snow targeting the Dakotas into @Beltrami Island back yard... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 Another dry slot for us in Nebraska. Hoping as we move forward in April we start getting something. Need a wet month around these parts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 How has anyone forgotten April 2nd for me and @Andie? Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 7 hours ago, Tom said: 0z EPS...Big Snow targeting the Dakotas into @Beltrami Island back yard... Oh I've been watching this. This thing better deliver the goods for solid double digit accumulation. It's a couple weeks too late to be happy with a garden variety 6-8" storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 7 hours ago, Iceresistance said: How has anyone forgotten April 2nd for me and @Andie? I haven’t…..oh wait. Anyway. Severe storms and risk of large hail and tornados along a warm front. Could get nasty. I think you might be in a higher risk than DFW but I won’t bet on it. Very nasty storm season this year keep your eyes open Ice!! 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, Andie said: I haven’t…..oh wait. Anyway. Severe storms and risk of large hail and tornados along a warm front. Could get nasty. I think you might be in a higher risk than DFW but I won’t bet on it. Very nasty storm season this year keep your eyes open Ice!! Reed Timmer, PhD @ReedTimmerAccu Increasing threat for gorilla hail and isolated #tornado in DFW area tomorrow evening! This is my target area. Stay tuned to watches and warnings in N Texas as this could go big tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 I can do without this ! Don’t need to replace a roof this soon much less windows!! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 6 hours ago, Andie said: I can do without this ! Don’t need to replace a roof this soon much less windows!! SPC has upgraded the Dallas/Ft. Worth area to an enhanced risk today. All hazards are possible but it seems like large hail is the biggest threat. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of very large hail, localized damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern Plains, with the greatest threat centered on north Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains during the day today, and into the Southeast tonight. In the wake of this feature, a large-scale upper trough will begin to amplify over the West. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across TX through the day, in response to a gradually deepening cyclone in the south-central High Plains. Later tonight, the warm front will move northward along the Gulf Coast and richer low-level moisture will begin returning to the lower MS Valley region. ...North/central TX and vicinity... As low-level moisture increases beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate to locally strong buoyancy will develop later today across much of central/north TX. Initially elevated convection is expected to develop by late morning or early afternoon from northwest TX into southwest OK, within a low-level warm advection regime ahead of the ejecting wave. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support some threat for hail with the stronger elevated cells as they spread eastward. With time, at least isolated surface-based storms are expected to develop this afternoon, as modest heating occurs near/south of the warm front, within a moistening boundary layer. Some initially elevated convection may become rooted in the boundary layer, while isolated supercell development will also be possible along an eastward-moving dryline. MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective shear of 50+ kt will support a threat of very large hail with any sustained supercell, along with a threat of isolated severe gusts. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of low-level flow/shear across the warm sector, but any sustained intense supercell would also pose some tornado threat, especially in closer proximity to the northward-moving warm frontal zone. An Enhanced Risk has been added across north TX, where the greatest storm coverage is currently anticipated within a favorable supercell environment. Storm coverage becomes increasingly uncertain south of the Enhanced Risk area into parts of central TX, but any sustained supercell in this region would pose a threat of very large hail as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 (edited) Mondays threat looks low as cool air will be in place north of I-70. Large hail is possible north of the warm front. The biggest and most widespread severe weather day is Tuesday. All hazards possible for many on here including the metropolitan areas of KC, Chicago, STL, and Little Rock again. SPC AC 020719 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the lower Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into portions of the Mid South. These could pose a risk for a few strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion ... As the mid-latitude eastern Pacific mid-level ridging gradually becomes suppressed, models indicate that downstream troughing will broaden from the Great Basin into the Mississippi Valley. The latter regime will be lead by a vigorous short wave trough, which is forecast to be accompanied by continuing strong surface cyclogenesis from the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest, and building downstream mid-level ridging across the Upper Ohio Valley into Ontario, as well as across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into Southeast. An intensifying southwesterly mid/upper jet (including in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb) nosing across the central Great Plains through Upper Midwest will contribute to strong deep-layer shear within the warm sector of the cyclone. At the same time, intensification of southerly lower-level flow (to 50-70+ kt around 850 mb) likely will contribute to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. This could potentially contribute to an environment conducive to supercells and organizing lines of clusters capable of producing strong tornadoes and damaging winds, where large-scale forcing for ascent and thermodynamic profiles can become favorable. ...Great Plains into Mississippi Valley... Currently, based on the latest model output, the quality of the low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is in some question. Surface dewpoints across much of the warm sector may mostly remain in the lower to perhaps mid 60s F, and the moistening boundary-layer may not become particularly deep. Corridors near/south of the warm frontal zone, to the north of the Missouri River, and ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front across Arkansas into southeast Missouri Tuesday evening, may become possible exceptions. During the day, models indicate a plume of high level moistening and large-scale ascent overspreading much of the warm sector, across the Ozark Plateau into middle Mississippi Valley. Forecast soundings suggest that this will be accompanied by destabilization and convection, which will contribute to saturation down into the mid-levels. It appears that this will not completely erode the capping elevated mixed-layer air, but thickening cloud cover aloft may inhibit surface heating and suppress potential thunderstorm development in the absence of lift to overcome the inhibition. Southeast of the deepening surface cyclone, near the intersection of the warm front and dryline, and beneath the dry slot, destabilization near/just ahead of the leading edge of the mid-level cooling seems to offer the best potential for the initiation of intense sustained thunderstorms. It still appears that this will be near the Missouri River, across parts of northeast Kansas/southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa/northwestern Missouri, by late afternoon. This probably will include discrete supercells initially, before convection eventually grows upscale into an organizing, eastward propagating cluster along and south of the warm front. Farther south, developments are a bit more unclear. To this point, however, there has been a persistent signal within the model output that a corridor of more substantive moistening, ahead of the cold front as it overtakes the dryline and surges southeastward into the Ozark Plateau, could provide a corridor of enhanced severe weather potential by Tuesday evening. It is possible that associated destabilization may become aligned with the strong deep-layer mean flow, possibly allowing for the evolution of one or two long track supercells, ahead of a developing squall line. Day 4 risk area includes the Detroit area. Edited April 2 by Clinton 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 Models are looking to crush the Dakotas with snow and blizzard conditions. There should be no shortage of water in the Missouri River this spring. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 I agree on the hail concern. From the local Mets it’s looks like DFW will be in the critical area of the clash overhead. I’m expecting 3-7/8 pm to be our go time. The real relief is these things tend to pick up speed as they pick up complex energy and sweep east. So, holding my breath. Just a few scattered small showers NW currently. But they can blow up fast. 76*. Humidity 67%. Cloudy Pressure 29.81 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 2 Report Share Posted April 2 It’s looking like Oklahoma/Texas line will get much of this storm. The DFW area will get some when the line develops more but as of right now nothing like people north of me. Some heavy rain, maybe some hail and that’s it unless it has some surprises in its pocket. Currently clouds are growing heavier but no rain. 3:30 Edit: Some large claps of thunder and it barely got our sidewalk wet. Oh well. Better luck next time. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 Tuesday could be quite the day. Long and detailed write up from EAX this afternoon. Attention turns to Tuesday as the deep H5 trough begins to lift out of the desert southwest with the 100+ kt jet rounding east of the trough axis. This develops a negative tilt throughout Tuesday morning, while dCVA and WAA remained phase ahead of the axis and allow the surface cyclone to continue to deepen. This strengthens southerly flow across the area. First off, this will result in another windy day. The gradient winds alone will begin to push advisory criteria, and if clouds clear late Monday Night, mixing during the early morning may help bring wind gusts to near 40 kts. This may also lead to elevated fire weather threat. Secondly, this robust synoptic setup is expected to result in a favorable severe thunderstorm environment. Ensemble probabilities for at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE are above 90 percent. This will be a rather robust warm sector, as temperatures are progged to reach the lower 80s with dewpoints eventually climbing the into the lower 60s. Throughout the day, the thermal boundary that stalled on Monday is pushed northward into Iowa. As the surface cyclone deepens, surface troughing extends across the Plains to east of the Mississippi River Valley. Most deterministic solutions continue to depict rapid pressure falls especially in the vicinity of the warm front. As the nose of the H5 100+ kt jet streak approaches, deep layer shear drastically increases, and will likely see bulk shear values in the 0-6km layer exceed 60 kts. For the most part, there is strong consensus among model guidance with the track of the surface cyclone. There are still differences in the strength of the surface cyclone, but only about 4-6 mb. These differences likely will not make a big difference in the impacts expected from this system. The main question is how long does it take for shower and thunderstorm activity to start. As was the case with this past Friday`s event, there will likely be a pseudo dryline that comes through prior to the main cold front, dropping dewpoints but keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Isentropic ascent may continue, and could foster some shower development Tuesday morning. Currently, synoptic scale models are not overly excited with producing rain Tuesday morning for our forecast area. Most of the QPF comes after 18z, essentially waiting for peak heating. Analysis of GFS model soundings does show a strong EML advecting in from 775mb and upward with the southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of the main trough, and provides a stronger a cap across a large portion of the warm sector that is ahead of the pseudo dryline. The convergence along the surface cyclone and cold front will likely be needed to lift parcels past this cap. Given the strong dynamics of this system though, would not be surprised if a weak vorticity max ejects from the main PV anomaly, and provides some forcing for elevated storms early Tuesday afternoon. However, the main show and severe weather threat will need to wait for surface based convection. Once the cap erodes, the warm sector throughout much of the lower Missouri River Valley will have mid-level lapse rates between 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, with nearly dry adiabatic boundary layers. With respect to wind shear, current model hodographs are showing strong cyclonic shear in the lowest 0- 1km in areas near the center of the surface cyclone, mainly where the surface winds are backed to the southeast. There are few points that also show a veer-back profile in the vicinity of the warm front and surface cyclone center. Right now, this is favored north of Hwy 36 from NE Kansas into southern Iowa (essentially the northern enhanced risk in the SPC Day 3 outlook). This would be the favored area for discrete supercell storm mode, with areas further south looking at more linear storm along the cold front. A secondary area south of Interstate 44 associated with a secondary vort max could also favor this, but this is not currently depicted in our forecast area. If the environment remains favorable for a discrete storm mode Tuesday afternoon into early evening, supercells will be capable of all threats. Areas along the cold front with the linear storm mode would mainly be damaging winds, but will need to monitor surges and inflections and how it orients with the 0-3km shear vector, as the bulk shear values in this layer will exceed 40 kts later in the evening as the LLJ kicks in. If the warm front does not surge as quickly, or the H5 short-wave closes off sooner and lifts differently then currently progged, this will likely change where favorable low-level cyclonic shear sets up, and could change the area of the discrete storm threat. The 00z CAMs this evening may provide us some of the first hints on this potential. The CAMs this evening will also provide the opportunity to dive into smaller scale details, storm motion, storm inflow, etc. Confidence is medium-high in the occurrence of strong to severe storms across the area, medium confidence in the specific threats and low-medium in timing. Severe storms could start early afternoon, and it is possible a severe threat continues into the late evening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 2 Author Report Share Posted April 2 18z NAMNST coming in hot 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 3 Author Report Share Posted April 3 Moderate risk area put out by the SPC, same areas hit last week. Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI....CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the lower Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into portions of the Mid South. These could pose a risk for a few strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid-level ridging over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific gradually becomes suppressed, models indicate that downstream troughing will broaden from the Great Basin into the Mississippi Valley. This will be lead by a vigorous short wave trough, which is forecast to be accompanied by continuing strong surface cyclogenesis from the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest, and building downstream mid-level ridging across the Upper Ohio Valley into Ontario, as well as across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into Southeast. An intensifying southwesterly mid/upper jet streak (including speeds in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb) nosing across the central Great Plains through Upper Midwest will contribute to strong deep-layer shear within the warm sector of the cyclone. At the same time, intensification of southerly lower-level flow (to 50-70+ kt around 850 mb) likely will contribute to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. This could potentially contribute to an environment conducive to supercells and organizing lines or clusters capable of producing strong tornadoes and damaging winds, where large-scale forcing for ascent and thermodynamic profiles can become favorable. However, among a number of substantive lingering uncertainties, the quality of the boundary-layer moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico remains in question. Due to (at least initially) relatively shallow boundary-layer depth, downward mixing of drier air might impact sizable pockets of the potentially broad warm sector through the day, based on model output. Also, ahead of the mid/upper troughing, destabilization associated with large-scale ascent and an influx of high-level moisture from the subtropical Pacific may contribute to convective development which tends to saturate and stabilize lapse rates down into the mid-levels, across much of the Ozark Plateau into middle Mississippi Valley. While it appears that this will not completely erode the capping elevated mixed-layer air, thickening cloud cover aloft may inhibit surface heating and suppress potential thunderstorm development in the absence of lift to overcome the inhibition. ...Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley... Both the latest NAM and Rapid Refresh appear increasingly suggestive that the dryline could surge east-northeastward across southwestern Iowa and northwestern/west central Missouri, at least above the surface, by mid to late afternoon, in response to the progression of at least one speed maximum within the mid-level flow. Model output generally indicates that largest CAPE will become focused ahead of this feature, and south of the warm front advancing northward across central Iowa/northern Illinois during the late afternoon. And the dryline might provide a focus for sustained discrete supercell development with the potential to produce strong tornadoes while propagating northeastward across northeastern Missouri and southeastern Iowa into northwestern and west central Illinois through early evening. In the wake of this activity, as the cold front begins to overtake the dryline and advance southeastward, various model output continues to suggest that the evolution of an organizing line or cluster of storms is possible. This may pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes while propagating east-southeastward across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity into Tuesday night. Farther south, developments initially along the dryline and then ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front remain a bit more unclear. However, there has been a persistent signal within the model output that a narrow corridor of more substantive boundary-layer moistening could provide a focus for enhanced severe weather potential by Tuesday evening. It is possible that associated destabilization may become aligned with the strong deep-layer mean flow, possibly allowing for the evolution of one or two long track supercells, ahead of a developing squall line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 3 Author Report Share Posted April 3 Storms, with the worst looking to be just NE of mby. Very dry air west of the dryline I wish Kansas could get a drink, that drought area will grow. Regardless it will be windy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 3 Report Share Posted April 3 0z Euro...cutting it a bit to far NW for our MN peeps to reel in the higher totals... @Beltrami Island 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 3 Report Share Posted April 3 The dreaded dry slot will lead to fire concerns and blowing dust in places with extremely high winds. I have been one of the lucky ones with winter precipitation, but many continue in the long drought. NWS Hastings says little to nothing for rainfall for the next 2 weeks. Unfortunately, we've seen this movie played way to often in the last 2 years. We have to hope that the coming El Nino will provide much better moisture around here going forward. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted April 3 Report Share Posted April 3 5 hours ago, Tom said: 0z Euro...cutting it a bit to far NW for our MN peeps to reel in the higher totals... @Beltrami Island Grand Forks hasn't committed to any amounts yet in my point forecast. Just to the east, the Duluth office has 11- 22 in the point forecast. Near 50 by the weekend is going to make for one heck of a mess even if 11 happens. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 3 Author Report Share Posted April 3 Anybody else going to be chasing tomorrow? @OmahaSnowFan Reed Timmer, PhD @ReedTimmerAccu Targeting Des Moines tomorrow to start for tornado outbreak. Sticking to the warm frontal zone. Dangerous storm chase once again but storm motions should be closer to 40 knots. Unfortunately, the same areas ravaged by Friday’s tornadoes could be impacted again. Stay tuned to watches and warnings tomorrow https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmer2.0/videos/243150154836258 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 Your map reminds me of an article I read a few days ago addressing how “tornado alley” has shifted. The spring storms in Texas have changed recently. They’re less prone to circulation. We get more threat of hail than anything and often it isn’t as bad as forecast. I would love for someone to weigh into why tornado alley has moved east after being in the center of the country for so long. And is it long term or a brief anomaly? 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 6 hours ago, Clinton said: Anybody else going to be chasing tomorrow? @OmahaSnowFan Reed Timmer, PhD @ReedTimmerAccu Targeting Des Moines tomorrow to start for tornado outbreak. Sticking to the warm frontal zone. Dangerous storm chase once again but storm motions should be closer to 40 knots. Unfortunately, the same areas ravaged by Friday’s tornadoes could be impacted again. Stay tuned to watches and warnings tomorrow https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmer2.0/videos/243150154836258 Yep, I’ll be out chasing again! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 @Timmy Supercell 2 Quote PWS DATA Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 4 Author Report Share Posted April 4 Impactful weather day ahead. The tornado threat for mby will depend on if any storms can break through the cap later this afternoon. A squall line will likely move through overnight and it looks like some to my NE could have tornados after dark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 4 Author Report Share Posted April 4 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A large area of severe potential will develop today into tonight, from eastern portions of the Plains into the Missouri and mid/upper Mississippi Valleys. Strong, potentially long track tornadoes are possible, in addition to large hail and damaging winds. Both afternoon and overnight potential is expected across various regions, including the risk of dangerous nighttime tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move from the Intermountain West/Rockies toward the Great Plains today. Within the large-scale trough, an upper cyclone will deepen as it moves northeastward toward the Dakotas. An 80-100 kt midlevel jet will overspread the central Plains during the afternoon/evening, while a secondary jet maximum intensifies through the day from the southern Plains into parts of the Midwest. At the surface, a broad cyclone will gradually consolidate and deepen as it propagates from the central High Plains toward western IA by early evening. A warm front will move northward into central/northern IA and northern IL by late afternoon, and into parts of WI/lower MI late tonight. A dryline will extend southward across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains, with a cold front expected to sweep through the Plains/Midwest this evening into the overnight. ...Iowa into parts of the Great Lakes states... Short-term guidance continues to vary greatly regarding the extent of mixing across the warm sector over parts of the Midwest later today. The typically overmixed RAP/HRRR drop surface dewpoints to near 60F south of the warm front as temperatures warm to near 90F, while the generally undermixed NAM maintains cooler temperatures and upper 60s F dewpoints across the warm sector, and is slower to advance the warm front northward. The current expectation is for the magnitude of mixing to be somewhere between these two extremes, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s in closer proximity to the warm front, with somewhat stronger mixing possible farther south. Considerable spread remains regarding convective evolution among regional/global guidance and CAMs. However, two areas of possible storm initiation this afternoon are evident. The first is near the MO/IA/IL border region, where substantial warming/moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will result in rapid destabilization near/south of the warm front. Any supercell that develops in this region during the afternoon will pose a threat of very large to giant hail. Very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of strong tornadoes as well for as long as any supercell traverses the warm sector along/south of the warm front. The second area of potential initiation will be farther west across west-central IA, closer to the surface low. Some uncertainty remains regarding the moisture quality this far west, but moderate buoyancy and very favorable wind profiles will support a threat of supercells capable of all severe hazards, including the potential for a strong tornado or two with any cell that can persist in the warm sector. Additional convection may develop later tonight in association with the cold front and move into the region, posing a threat of hail and damaging gusts. A conditional tornado threat will also persist overnight with any sustained supercells. Finally, storms capable of hail will be possible north of the warm front, where MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support elevated supercell potential, despite rather cold surface temperatures. ...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau... A very favorable severe thunderstorm environment will also reside across the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, beginning this afternoon and persisting overnight east of the dryline/cold front. Diurnal storm development along the dryline is expected to be isolated at best, with large-scale ascent remaining weak for much of the day. However, convection is expected to increase this evening and especially overnight from northeast TX into AR and southern MO, within a persistent low-level moist plume associated with a strong low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and very favorable wind profiles will support supercells, both with diurnal storms (if any develop) and nocturnal convection. Some nocturnal storms may be somewhat elevated (at least initially) and the mode may be a mix of discrete cells and clusters, but weak MLCINH will not prohibit surface-based convection, and the current expectation is for supercell potential to increase overnight. Any nocturnal supercells will be capable of all severe hazards, and the concern remains regarding the potential for nocturnal strong tornadoes from near the ArkLaTex region into parts of southern MO. Enhanced risk tomorrow for the lower lakes down through the Ohio Valley. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms posing a risk for strong tornadoes and large hail are expected in a corridor across eastern Illinois through Lower Michigan Wednesday, with organizing clusters or lines of storms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, across the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Within the more amplified branch of split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to migrate across and northeast of the Lake Superior vicinity before beginning to weaken Wednesday through Wednesday night. As this occurs, it appears that mid-level ridging centered along an axis across the Yucatan Peninsula into western Atlantic will remain a prominent influence across much of the Southeast, while short wave ridging also overspreads the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. Models indicate a corridor of deepening boundary-layer moisture overspreading the Ozark Plateau and middle Mississippi Valley, into the Lake Michigan vicinity, by early Wednesday. This is forecast to spread across much of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, while the trailing flank of the front stalls across the lower Mississippi Valley into northwestern Gulf coastal plain, beneath the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridging. ...Illinois through lower Michigan... Beneath a dry slot overspreading the region, south and east of an intensifying cyclonic mid-level jet (in excess of 120 kt around 500 mb), surface heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates are expected to contribute to sufficient destabilization for intensifying supercells. This may commence in a pre-frontal corridor as early as mid Wednesday morning across parts of central into northeastern Illinois, before developing into/across Lower Michigan and parts of adjacent northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio through late afternoon. It remains unclear what effect the cooler marine layer from Lake Michigan has on adjacent coastal areas, particularly into portions of western Michigan. However, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, in particular, indicate a rather potent thermodynamic and kinematic environment supportive of strong tornadoes. This includes sizable CAPE, strong deep-layer shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. It is possible that severe weather probabilities could still be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Ohio Valley... To the south of the dry slot (within a plume of seasonably high precipitable water, and generally aligned with a belt of 40-70 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer), models indicate the potential for more widespread convection, organizing into clusters or lines while overspreading much of the Ohio Valley through the day. While lapse rates may not be particularly steep, given the strong flow, with at least modest CAPE and the increased potential for heavy precipitation loading and organizing convection, the environment probably will become conducive to damaging surface gusts, in addition to some risk for tornadoes. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 Most of lower Michigan is now in the enhanced risk area for Wednesday. We shall see how this plays out. It also looks like Wednesday will be the warmest day of 2023 so far. Thursday looks to be windy and much cooler. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 I'm probably on the outside looking in by the look of things again today. A few cells could pop up over southeast OK in the warm sector this afternoon, moving northeast. The front will probably light up right as it passes my area near midnight. One of these days.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 A cluster of strong storms has popped over southeast Iowa and is moving into my area. It's pretty chilly outside so hail is the primary threat. 2 Quote season snowfall: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 crazy run by the HDRPS 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 The hail core of this storm just passed a mile or two to my east. I got pea size hail, but 1.00-1.75" hail fell from south to northeast Cedar Rapids and Marion. 3 Quote season snowfall: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 Tomorrow could be a very rare event for Michigan. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 2.50" diameter hail has been reported in Davenport. Quote season snowfall: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 2.50" diameter hail has been reported in Davenport. Now 3.00" hail and 80 mph wind in Davenport/Moline. 4 Quote season snowfall: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Now 3.00" hail and 80 mph wind in Davenport/Moline. That storm got big while the others weakened or died. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 And now it's tornado warned with temperatures only around 50⁰! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 The Quad Cities airport recorded a 90 mph wind gust. 1 1 4 Quote season snowfall: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 Pic of lightning from a video I took a few years ago. Sounded like a gun going off. We were so close to it you can see the streamers as it evaporated. Danger close! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 Huge hail here in Plano,il 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 1 hour ago, FV-Mike said: Huge hail here in Plano,il My sister reported 1” hail also… 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 4 hours ago, Hawkeye said: The Quad Cities airport recorded a 90 mph wind gust. Saw a delayed report of 4-inch hail in the Quad Cities 2 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 Wow look at the temperature contrast! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 16 minutes ago, Sparky said: Wow look at the temperature contrast! Is Northern Missouri literally hotter than Oklahoma?? Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macminey2 Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 Looks like a significant widening of the spc northern “moderate risk” zone. To including more of central Iowa. Surprised I’m under a tornado watch though - just doesn’t feel likely here in NW / NCentral IA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 Thundersnow at 1.5" down in the last hour 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Is Northern Missouri literally hotter than Oklahoma?? Kind of depends where in Oklahoma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 1 minute ago, Sparky said: Kind of depends where in Oklahoma. I'm in Central Oklahoma, but WOW! 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 25 minutes ago, macminey2 said: Looks like a significant widening of the spc northern “moderate risk” zone. To including more of central Iowa. Surprised I’m under a tornado watch though - just doesn’t feel likely here in NW / NCentral IA. Im hoping you’re right with the tornado part. I’d like some nice storms, but no thanks on tornados around here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 4 Report Share Posted April 4 Things don’t seem too crazy so far? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 4 Author Report Share Posted April 4 Severe thunderstorm watch for the KC metro. Models indicate a squall line pushing through around midnight. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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