Clinton Posted April 1 Report Share Posted April 1 New week but a very similar setup to what just occurred Friday. As of this moment there is a marginal threat Monday extending from central Texas up to KC. @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 ..SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the central and southern Great Plains late Monday afternoon and Monday night, posing some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Models suggest that large-scale mid-level ridging developing within the westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific will reach peak amplitude by the beginning of this period. As additional perturbations continue to dig to the east of this regime, inland of the Pacific coast, it appears that an amplifying lead short wave trough will pivot eastward across the Great Basin through Rockies vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream mid-level ridging is forecast to build across and to the east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley, while ridging also builds near and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, to the north of persistent mid-level subtropical ridging centered near the Yucatan Peninsula. This is expected to coincide with the initiation of strong cyclogenesis from eastern Colorado through western Kansas by late Monday night. A broad belt of strengthening southerly return flow will contribute to further low-level moistening across the lower Great Plains into Mississippi Valley, as far north as a stalling frontal zone in the wake of a short wave perturbation accelerating east-northeast of the Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes. This front is forecast to sharpen while slowly returning northward through southern portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late Monday night. At the same time, as a mid-level low of Arctic origins lingers near/southeast of Hudson Bay, associated cold surface air may begin to advance southward into portions of the northern Great Plains and upper Great Lakes region. The Tuesday threat looks to be slightly further SW from the previous storm and will likely included KC and Des Moines then east toward Chicago. KC has been in somewhat of a severe weather drought the last few years but with highs in the low 80s and a potentially well timed dry line there should be enough energy for some organized super cells. ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that the westerlies will become rather amplified across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America by late next week into next weekend. It appears that this will include building mid-level ridging centered near the Pacific coast, with downstream developments a bit more unclear. However, beneath at least a broadly confluent mid/upper flow, cold surface ridging may tend to prevail east of the Rockies, with generally low severe weather potential. Prior to these developments, strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed across the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday through Tuesday night, in response to a significant short trough emerging from the Intermountain West. It still appears that, as the center of the deepening cyclone migrates from the north central Kansas vicinity through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa during the late afternoon and early evening, a trailing dryline advancing across the Missouri/Kansas border vicinity might provide one focus for intense thunderstorm initiation. There remains at least some signal within the various model output that convection may initiate earlier within the open warm sector to the east, and it remains unclear what influence this might have on subsequent thunderstorm development. Barring this complication, a period of sustained, long track discrete supercell development may be possible, as strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow advects cells away from the dryline through the moist warm sector. This probably would be accompanied by potential for strong tornadoes and large hail. Thereafter, as a trailing cold front overtakes the dryline and surges eastward across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys, an organizing squall line may be accompanied by strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The cold side looks to produce heavy snow over the Dakotas and the snow could make its way over toward @Madtown. Hopefully we all get a little better drink of water than the previous system as things look to really dry out in the long range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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