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PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion


Cascadia_Wx

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4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Would be fun to wrap the cold season with some flakes in the air but I’m not really expecting it to happen. 

We’ve had a lot of snow in the air this year despite it only adding up to 7.6” at my house. I’d have to go and look at the exact number…but we’ve had flakes flying on atleast 25-30 different days from late November to early March. I’m ready for spring and looking outside today I’d say it’s here. 

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2 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

What game is that you were talking about on the previous month Jesse? 

Age of Empires. Looked like the second one. Great game. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks I would consider it a major rebuke for Tim if we can salvage 6-10” from this trough. Any accumulation though would be a real triumph. 

I am cheering for you!   Didn't even think there was a doubt that you would get significant snow.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ECMWF is the only model showing decent rain on Thursday and Friday.   And is also the most robust with the ridging that follows.  Those things might be related... but not sure.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

60s in WA 80 in Portland.

us_model-en_modez_2023040112_228_494_217.png

ECMWF cold bias near the Puget Sound will be in full force with this pattern.   If the 500mb pattern verifies then it will be warmer up here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

One big story is how wet Thursday/Friday have trended on the Euro. Meanwhile the warmest stuff keeps getting pushed back to the very last day of the run.

Not surprised. Seems like any major pattern change tends to be pushed back.

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GFS shows basically no rain Thursday and Friday... GEM shows very little.   But this is the second consecutive ECMWF run to show significant rain those days.   Probably best to assume the ECMWF will be right and personally that would be my preference.   But sometimes the GFS ends up being sneaky good with pattern changes.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Oh it does? Good to know. Didn’t think it made sense to just see 60s.

Definitely a cold bias... most pronounced on sunny days from April-October.    We have already seen it show up on numerous sunny days in March as well. 

I think it was @bainbridgekid who joked last summer that the ECMWF seems to think the waters of the Puget Sound are in the 30s all summer.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You can see that some GEFS ensemble members show the wet period Thursday Friday. Also liking the quicker breakdown of the ridge and decent agreement on the long range between the operational, control and mean. I say bring on a warm spike.

66902420-D443-4E2D-9EBE-4C8DB3AAC626.png

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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I'm currently running a 47/36 spread here at my house. When glancing at the 12z 3km NAM lapse rates depicted for right now, that translates to roughly 4-700j/kg of unrealized CAPE, which is on the upper end of average for these Springtime cold core convective setups. The only thing preventing any convection over the Seattle area is the northward displacement of the convergence zone. As of right now the metro area down to about Federal Way is under midlevel subsidence related to that, preventing deeper convection.

Some lift ahead of a main batch of PSCZ-related showers currently parked over the Olympic peninsula is currently spawning a low level cumulus field over Seattle with some very shallow pseudo-convective drizzle over Snohomish county; a pretty good indicator that the near surface environment is quite ripe and moist ahead of any impulses we see today. One thing to watch for is to see if this drizzle expands in coverage and disarms the environment via evaporative cooling.

CAM's are quite trigger happy with a branch of potent showers popping up over the central Sound and swinging through the north side of the city over the coming hours. The fast cell motion and strong westerly flow should allow the environment to overcome that PSCZ-related subsidence.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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FBCD3DE4-1DFD-423F-AC06-1B7FBA84005E.jpeg

Those are some boomers! They're perched across the Sound but those towers reach way above the horizon, and even the apartments around my house.

Clearing now, which is a good sign. Should prime the environment more

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

FBCD3DE4-1DFD-423F-AC06-1B7FBA84005E.jpeg

Those are some boomers! They're perched across the Sound but those towers reach way above the horizon, and even the apartments around my house.

Clearing now, which is a good sign. Should prime the environment more

Pretty sunny now with some more showers to the west. Hoping to finally see more than some distant lightning, it's been a few years

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5902DA80-866F-4332-8F73-37842D44CF62.jpeg

Divided sky.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Sunbreaks gonna get this thing cranking!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just heard some thunder. This thing is powerful. It looks and feels the part, with how divided the sky is and the structure of the cumulonimbus towers. On radar the whole thing is bowing out, with a nice pool of cold air reinforcing on the back side. Looks like this PSCZ is taking advantage of the speed shear left in the wake of the Olympics.

Currently enjoying the sunny subsidence region to the south of the 'zone. Getting windy as we're pushing past 50F and mix some of those strong SSW'lies to the ground.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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