PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was looking at the first half of April 1975 a lot yesterday. Man what a beastly pattern for cold nights and even cold days at the onset. Although even that month valley spots were flirting with 70 by the 10th or so. Tough to get enough of a continental BITE for the cold nights at this point without sacrificing some daytime chilliness.

Yeah, if you look at the past couple of decades it is pretty tough to get continental influence anymore in the early spring, when compared to that 50s-70s period. 2019 was a throwback in that sense. First sub-20 low at Silver Falls in March since the early 70s. Even though Silver Falls has had a lot of cold early spring months since 2006 (Mostly March, and a few April's), they have largely come on the back of cold highs caused by persistent cold onshore flow. 36/30 type days like we have seen this week. 

[Phishy Wx]

35 WC 31 at almost noon on 4/4

 

brrr

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phil usually owns up to his forecasts and will explain where things went wrong. I’ve never known him to delete a post to cover his tracks regarding a bust. All kind of ironic coming from you since you’re the one who likes to move on as if nothing happened and never face up to it when your thoughts are challenged here.

Just when Jesse seems like he’s on the right track…

[Deweydog]

HAIL

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Just when Jesse seems like he’s on the right track…

I calls em like I sees em. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Slushy Inch]

Cold trough on the 12th. With the big one behind it. Alaska to PNW express.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Up to 93.8” of snow on the season. Would be a shame to stop now…

That's crazy. Wow. You have me beat by 81.8" lol. Is that a record for you?

[Slushy Inch]

Quite the pool of cold air dumping south… April 2008 redux?

[Slushy Inch]

More of a winter looking trough. Great setup for a very strong convergence zone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That's crazy. Wow. You have me beat by 81.8" lol. Is that a record for you?

Getting close. 98.5" in 2011-12. That winter was much different though, much warmer overall, and far fewer days with snow on the ground. More just huge storms and then immediate melting. I would imagine 2007-08 and possibly 2008-09 had quite a bit more up here. 

Edited April 4, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[bainbridgekid]

41 degrees here at Noon despite near full sunshine the last several hours. Crazy for April.

[Gradient Keeper]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Getting close. 98.5" in 2011-12. That winter was much different though, much warmer overall, and far fewer days with snow on the ground. More just huge storms and then immediate melting. I would imagine 2007-08 and possibly 2008-09 had quite a bit more up here. 

A winter, and now early Spring to remember.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A winter, and now early Spring to remember.

The consistent cold anomalies from early November on are what I will carry forward with me. Really remarkable in our rapidly warming climate. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The consistent cold anomalies from early November on are what I will carry forward with me. Really remarkable in our rapidly warming climate. 

Right there with you brother. One love. ✌ 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The consistent cold anomalies from early November on are what I will carry forward with me. Really remarkable in our rapidly warming climate. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Can we get a little more of this plz?

[Cold Snap]

Made it down to 32 this morning. 77th freeze of the season. Looking like the festivities may not be done yet after some of the model runs this morning. Also here is a pic of another wintery scene this morning!

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, if you look at the past couple of decades it is pretty tough to get continental influence anymore in the early spring, when compared to that 50s-70s period. 2019 was a throwback in that sense. First sub-20 low at Silver Falls in March since the early 70s. Even though Silver Falls has had a lot of cold early spring months since 2006 (Mostly March, and a few April's), they have largely come on the back of cold highs caused by persistent cold onshore flow. 36/30 type days like we have seen this week. 

Here's a fun stat. Since 1982, OLM has only had three years with record lows in April: 2008, 2009 and 2022. 

2008 did it three times.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

41 degrees here at Noon despite near full sunshine the last several hours. Crazy for April.

Gorgeous spring (winter) day in Seattle.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Getting some mixed precip showers (rain/graupel) now.

[Ken in Wood Village]

There are a lot of pop up showers happening. Wonder if we could squeak out a thunderstorm or two with these showers 🌩

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 37, outside shot at 40 today!

[Phishy Wx]

sun popped out for a minute.  we hit 40!!!!

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Wonder how long before this post is quietly deleted.

Bruh I didn’t even delete my ice age/-30C 850s posts. This one is vanilla milquetoast by comparison.

FWIW, I made the call for mid/late April warm-up before models suggested it (albeit wrongly so). I didn’t see a reason to doubt a dateline MJO reflection, and neither did numerical guidance.

But alas, the climate system is resisting that type of evolution, which has bigger implications for ENSO/low pass evolution this year. Seems a quick, high amplitude transition into El Niño is less likely, where-as the likelihood of a gradual, prolonged transition is increasing. Definitely a “cold phase” tendency to the NH pattern now, which is dissociated from ENSO at the moment.

[Phil]

FWIW the CPC was originally projecting a warm/dry outcome in the West/Southwest this month. Even I was skeptical of the latter, particularly over the interior and Southwest.

So yeah, my prediction might end up being wrong, but if that’s the case, theirs is more wrong.  

[bainbridgekid]

Yesterday was my 3rd straight day with accumulating hail. I-5 was covered about an inch deep in South Everett as I drove home last night around midnight. 

[MossMan]

Had some frozen precip one year ago today. 

[Phishy Wx]

cells bubbling North and West of Spokane, wonder if we see some more GRAUPEL?

[Deweydog]

Hasn’t hailed here for hours. Kinda concerning.

[Olive1010]

I hope we can squeeze a thunderstorm out of these widespread showers. I'm here a little west of Portland and see towering cumulus clouds building upwards.

[Olive1010]

Lots of scud that look like funnels

[Phil]

OT but interesting. Have had a disturbing number of wildfires out here this spring. Many days filled with the pungent smell of smoke, to the point that you almost expect to smell it when going outside.

Soil is so dry most trees are still dormant despite the incessant torching. Have never seen anything like it. Feels like we’re the new CA.

 

[T-Town]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hasn’t hailed here for hours. Kinda concerning.

If this keeps up it will never hail again.  

[Ken in Wood Village]

The pictures are of the shower to my NE. Looks impressive

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Bruh I didn’t even delete my ice age/-30C 850s posts. This one is vanilla milquetoast by comparison.

FWIW, I made the call for mid/late April warm-up before models suggested it (albeit wrongly so). I didn’t see a reason to doubt a dateline MJO reflection, and neither did numerical guidance.

But alas, the climate system is resisting that type of evolution, which has bigger implications for ENSO/low pass evolution this year. Seems a quick, high amplitude transition into El Niño is less likely, where-as the likelihood of a gradual, prolonged transition is increasing. Definitely a “cold phase” tendency to the NH pattern now, which is dissociated from ENSO at the moment.

The original post was mostly sarcastic but probably didn't come off as such, and to that I do apologize Phil. 

Very interesting seeing as to how changes in the outlook reflect changes in the way the big-picture pattern is unfolding.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Bruh I didn’t even delete my ice age/-30C 850s posts. This one is vanilla milquetoast by comparison.

FWIW, I made the call for mid/late April warm-up before models suggested it (albeit wrongly so). I didn’t see a reason to doubt a dateline MJO reflection, and neither did numerical guidance.

But alas, the climate system is resisting that type of evolution, which has bigger implications for ENSO/low pass evolution this year. Seems a quick, high amplitude transition into El Niño is less likely, where-as the likelihood of a gradual, prolonged transition is increasing. Definitely a “cold phase” tendency to the NH pattern now, which is dissociated from ENSO at the moment.

Would be wonderful if we could switch out if the post 2013 regime, especially in the warm season, but that’s probably just wishful thinking.

[The Blob]

Fred Meyer has olive trees on discount.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like a shower is about to hit me

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looking like a part of Illinois could be having a tornado.