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PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion


Cascadia_Wx

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That would make sense. I remembered that was a crazy warm April, especially for back then. It was warmer than April 2016 at downtown Portland.

The data for that month at Salem is really crazy. They hit 87 twice in mid April in addition to the 82, 84, 83 , 91, and 93 at the end of the month. +8 departure overall.

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It’s amazing SLE will still end up with a below average month in which they hit 91. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Currently 78F outside. Warm but about 6 degrees less than yesterday.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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The next 60 hours are looking interesting. I wanted to look and see what the thunderstorm potential was for a friend who lives in Post Falls, ID. Looks like he could get hit multiple times and some of those thunderstorms could be severe. 

I actually love this time of year when we see thunderstorms. Again, if I had the money, I would storm chase 🤗⛈️

NAM-CONUS 3-km Metro Regions Northwest US Simulated Radar.gif

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Another silly overachiever today. Most guidance had PDX in the low 60s for highs and they have been at least 65-66 so far. Much like yesterday when around 80 was widely forecast but they hit 85. I always like weather patterns where we underachieve compared to guidance, seems they are pretty rare.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Remember the discussion about the exaggerated snowfall maps all winter distorting perceptions?  I really think the ECMWF cold bias is related to the perception that temps are always overachieving in the warm season.   

Today was not even that sunny but it appears that the ECMWF will end up too cold at SEA and PDX by about 4 degrees.   And I think the ECMWF is main source of local forecasts in the short range.   So if the ECMWF shows 65 and the official forecast is 65 then its all good.   But it showed 61.

And the same two will mock this post even though I am right... and they will continue to lament the overachieving temps.    Add 5 degrees to the ECMWF output and then determine if actual temps overachieved.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember the discussion about the exaggerated snowfall maps all winter distorting perceptions?  I really think the ECMWF cold bias is related to the perception that temps are always overachieving in the warm season.   

Today was not even that sunny but it appears that the ECMWF will end up too cold at SEA and PDX by about 4 degrees.   And I think the ECMWF is main source of local forecasts in the short range.   So if the ECMWF shows 65 and the official forecast is 65 then its all good.   But it showed 61.

And the same two will mock this post even though I am right... and they will continue to lament the overachieving temps.    Add 5 degrees to the ECMWF output and then determine if actual temps overachieved.

57 here today. Not much of an overachiever. And the snow maps were spot on here this winter. Resolution just becomes an issue below 500'. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Only 62 at SLE for a high today. Spent a few hours down at AG FEST and it was pleasant. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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850mb temps were right at normal today over Portland.    Onshore flow is weak with ULL offshore.   Normal high is 66 today and actual will probably be 65.   Seems like the high ended up right where it should with this pattern.  

But it is fun to watch the cold misers squirm and complain so I probably shouldn't be too logical about it.   😀

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

850mb temps were right at normal today over Portland.    Onshore flow is weak with ULL offshore.   Normal high is 66 today and actual will probably be 65.   Seems like this high ended up right where it should with this pattern.  

But it is fun to watch the cold misers squirm and complain so I probably shouldn't be too logical about it.   😀

Fact check. The high was 66.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Final April Stats

Max: 82

Min: 29

Avg Max: 50.6

Avg Min: 36.2

Mean: 43.4

Precip: 8.66"

Daily Precip Max: 1.82"

Snow: 10.6"

Days with measurable snow: 5

Days with precip: 22

Sub-freezing lows: 11

Sub-40 highs: 4

Sub-50 highs: 17

70+: 3

80+: 1

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Final April Stats

Max: 82

Min: 29

Avg Max: 50.6

Avg Min: 36.2

Mean: 43.4

Precip: 8.66"

Daily Precip Max: 1.82"

Snow: 10.6"

Days with measurable snow: 5

Days with precip: 22

Sub-freezing lows: 11

Sub-40 highs: 4

Sub-50 highs: 17

70+: 3

80+: 1

Good stuff Andrew.

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good stuff Andrew.

Thanks! Ended up a little warmer, drier, and less snowy than last April, but still #2 in those categories in the time I've been here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Weird, the only complaining I see from today on here is Randy about a little smoke from a controlled burn and a certain someone taking things a little too personal and lashing out and concocting a narrative that isn't even a thing today on the forum.

By the way, today was a nice day, some mist, high of 56!!

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Weird, the only complaining I see from today on here is Randy about a little smoke from a controlled burn and a certain someone taking things a little too personal and lashing out and concocting a narrative that isn't even a thing today on the forum.

By the way, today was a nice day, some mist, high of 56!!

I burn pretty much every day from whenever it dries out enough to get a pile lit, until it dries out and a burn ban gets put in place. I usually only light 1-2 big wet piles a year like the one Randy complains about. Usually I just burn in my fire pit, sometimes I keep it going for days, just throwing a little in at a time. Not sure how Randy would handle the grass field burning in late summer...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I burn pretty much every day from whenever it dries out enough to get a pile lit, until it dries out and a burn ban gets put in place. I usually only light 1-2 big wet piles a year like the one Randy complains about. Usually I just burn in my fire pit, sometimes I keep it going for days, just throwing a little in at a time. Not sure how Randy would handle the grass field burning in late summer...

To each their own, I am sure Randy has actual serious reasons why he takes issue with, which is understandable.  But for someone to create a narrative on the forum today that doesn't exist, is petty and childish.

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28 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Weird, the only complaining I see from today on here is Randy about a little smoke from a controlled burn and a certain someone taking things a little too personal and lashing out and concocting a narrative that isn't even a thing today on the forum.

By the way, today was a nice day, some mist, high of 56!!

Just offering some insights on the overachieving complaining.   Just like with the perception that we always underachieve with snow... its mostly related to model issues.

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29 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

To each their own, I am sure Randy has actual serious reasons why he takes issue with, which is understandable.  But for someone to create a narrative on the forum today that doesn't exist, is petty and childish.

I didn't complain about overachieving... I just theorized on a possible reason.   But If I was complaining about underachieving I am sure you would call me out for that too.     What you are doing seems petty and childish.   😀

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely a fan of the 18z GFS and ensembles.

IMG_0540.png

Could be a pretty special month as far as precip goes. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember the discussion about the exaggerated snowfall maps all winter distorting perceptions?  I really think the ECMWF cold bias is related to the perception that temps are always overachieving in the warm season.   

Today was not even that sunny but it appears that the ECMWF will end up too cold at SEA and PDX by about 4 degrees.   And I think the ECMWF is main source of local forecasts in the short range.   So if the ECMWF shows 65 and the official forecast is 65 then its all good.   But it showed 61.

And the same two will mock this post even though I am right... and they will continue to lament the overachieving temps.    Add 5 degrees to the ECMWF output and then determine if actual temps overachieved.

Yesterday was definitely an overachiever down here. A true blessing. To pull off an 85 degree day in April with those specs is pretty impressive. 

Edited by Deweydog
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11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So good to see.

Willamette Basin snow pack is still 232% of normal to date. Looks like it is tied with 1985 for 4th highest snow pack for the date, behind 1999, 2008, and 1982. 

Looks like this was the 3rd best snowpack in the Willamette Basin this century behind 2008 and 2002. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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In Eastern Oregon this was generally the best snowpack since 1989. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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May is a big month for rainfall in Central and Eastern Oregon. The upcoming pattern looks pretty solid for those areas. Going to be some great fishing out that way in the next few years if everything goes right. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm messing around with some things to try and get them back to a more normal feel/layout after the hack. Will try to test most changes on the non-production side but ya'll might still see some fluctuations for a little bit longer. 

Also, please shoot me a DM if you find any piece of the site that looks funky theme-wise over the next couple days so I can fix it. 

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The new font has livejournal vibes circa 20 years ago lol. But not bad.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I burn pretty much every day from whenever it dries out enough to get a pile lit, until it dries out and a burn ban gets put in place. I usually only light 1-2 big wet piles a year like the one Randy complains about. Usually I just burn in my fire pit, sometimes I keep it going for days, just throwing a little in at a time. Not sure how Randy would handle the grass field burning in late summer...

Here, you’re only allowed to burn yard waste 1 month in the fall and 1 month in the spring.  And you can only burn on days with an appropriate venting index.  You can bring yard waste to the dump for free anytime though, which has cut back noticeably on the amount of smoke from people’s yards. 

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24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Here, you’re only allowed to burn yard waste 1 month in the fall and 1 month in the spring.  And you can only burn on days with an appropriate venting index.  You can bring yard waste to the dump for free anytime though, which has cut back noticeably on the amount of smoke from people’s yards. 

There is a number we call to tell us if burning is allowed that day. Up here in the foothills it's generally open every day during backyard burn season which generally runs March 15-mid-June and then October through December 15th. But because we have over 2 acres we are exempt from some of those limitations too. Often when there is an inversion or light winds, burning will be restricted in the valley, but that's not much of an issue up here. Smoke must settle in Mossman's area. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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