PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Phil]

Man every time guidance hints at eastern troughing it gets snatched away upon approach. I can really empathize with the cold weather club on this forum now. Brutal.

Tbh this is starting to feel unnervingly similar to 2012 here. And I would’ve realized the similarities even if 2012 didn’t also attempt an east-based niño with a descending -QBO.  

Really need this niño transition to succeed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This could be special...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Man every time guidance hints at eastern troughing it gets snatched away upon approach. I can really empathize with the cold weather club on this forum now. Brutal.

Tbh this is starting to feel unnervingly similar to 2012 here. And I would’ve realized the similarities even if 2012 didn’t also attempt an east-based niño with a descending -QBO.  

Really need this niño transition to succeed.

I doubt many on here would be super excited about a 2012-13 redux either. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we go back to 1922 and look at the current BNO location, the Burns downtown station, and the Harney Branch station, this was the 2nd coldest November-March at Burns, coming in just behind 1928-29. It beat out 1992-93 for the coldest at BNO in the 1973-present POR. 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I doubt many on here would be super excited about a 2012-13 redux either. 

That season was amazing!! Had some slush in December, heavy frost in January, and snowflakes in the air in March!!!! 

[Deweydog]

12/21/12 was a total bust.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That season was amazing!! Had some slush in December, heavy frost in January, and snowflakes in the air in March!!!! 

The great fogversion of 2013 was the high point of that winter here. Mid-December through January was decent, but that was about it. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The great fogversion of 2013 was the high point of that winter here. Mid-December through January was decent, but that was about it. 

The fake cold that was real cold depending on your point of view was enough to freeze Lake Goodwin over! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On a side note, my wife went to Seattle yesterday for the first time in two years. She said she couldn't believe how much worse it was than even a couple years ago. I was kind of surprised because some folks on here have said it has been cleaned up quite a bit. Guess not, you are probably just getting used to it. 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

12/21/12 was a total bust.

Hmmm. I don’t have any pics of the 21st…But I do have the 20th and 22nd documented with some amazing shots! 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On a side note, my wife went to Seattle yesterday for the first time in two years. She said she couldn't believe how much worse it was than even a couple years ago. I was kind of surprised because some folks on here have said it has been cleaned up quite a bit. Guess not, you are probably just getting used to it. 

It’s bad…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It’s bad…

It's bad down here, so I don't know why I actually believed there had been some remarkable improvement up there. lol

[Phishy Wx]

might get some flakes over here tonight if you guys will allow it

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At SLE the November-March period was the 24th coldest since 1892. However, it was the 2nd coldest since 1985 with only 2007-08 edging it out. 

It was the 10th coldest Feb/March combo and coldest since 1989. Even with how "cold" February/March have been in recent years the only other ones at SLE in the top 30 this century are 2019 (21) and 2009 (25). Though much of that probably has to do with UHI... Well that's what I thought, but when I look at just average high temps, the 21st century picture is even more bleak. 

I think the climate might be warming Andrew. Anyway I did the same thing and went on an ACIS ADVENTURE yesterday. Looking at November to March rankings, November/December, February/March rankings, and what not. Been meaning to post some of my findings here. This winter was good, but how it sits contextually is definitely bleak! Lol!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think the climate might be warming Andrew. Anyway I did the same thing and went on an ACIS ADVENTURE yesterday. Looking at November to March rankings, November/December, February/March rankings, and what not. Been meaning to post some of my findings here. This winter was good, but how it sits contextually is definitely bleak! Lol!

Well, I prefer to take a glass half full approach. But it was pretty shocking to see how February and March have definitely not been as cold, in a historical context, as many of us probably assumed. It just seems that way when juxtaposed against the heart of our winter, specifically January. 

I was also pretty surprised to see how last winter was a historically warm winter for a lot of places further south and east of the Cascades.  

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On a side note, my wife went to Seattle yesterday for the first time in two years. She said she couldn't believe how much worse it was than even a couple years ago. I was kind of surprised because some folks on here have said it has been cleaned up quite a bit. Guess not, you are probably just getting used to it. 

I was there last week and I’d still say the DT area is far better off compared to Portland. 

WSDOT has taken a much harder line on camp removal this spring overall statewide. Anyone familiar with Swampton in the Orchards area (near the old United Grocers for the locals) it has been removed to the tune of 400+ tons of debris being removed and fencing being added. This happened after one of two major camps burned a few weeks ago which almost spread to a couple businesses. They’ve also done major sweeps of dozens of other smaller camps in the urban core down here which is unprecedented compared to the last five years or so.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the November-March period was the 29th coldest on record for Vancouver, WA, whose POR goes back to 1891. Average temp of 41.4F

That doesn’t sound too crazy, but it does make it the coldest such period of the 21st century so far, and the coldest overall since 1993. Number one by far was 1979 with an average temp of 37.1F

Edited April 2, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like the November-February period was the 29th coldest on record for Vancouver, WA, whose POR goes back to 1891. Average temp of 41.4F

That doesn’t sound too crazy, but it does make it the coldest such period of the 21st century so far, and the coldest overall since 1993. Number one by far was 1979 with an average temp of 37.1F

This was a throw back winter in the sense that even though we didn't have any crazy arctic outbreaks, it was consistently winter. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

For PDX, November 1-March 31 was the 20th coldest such period, and the coldest since 2017 (42.2F that year vs 42.5F this year)

Some missing data for downtown Portland but looks like it came out to 20th coldest and the coldest such period since 1985. 2017 was about a degree warmer for that period and in 37th place.

For Hillsboro it was the 9th coldest such period, with an average temp of 40.2F, and the coldest since 1985. Again 2017 was warmer there, in 30th place.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This was a throw back winter in the sense that even though we didn't have any crazy arctic outbreaks, it was consistently winter. 

Definitely. Although late December and late February were both notable in the Portland area which is what I’m mostly looking at. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

I could keep going all day with this stuff, but I’ll take a break for now as not to clutter up the homeless camps ️ discussion  

[ShawniganLake]

41F here.  Caught a few wet snow showers overnight but not much.   With the incoming super Nino we may have to wait until the winter of 2024-25 to see our next flakes. 

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I was there last week and I’d still say the DT area is far better off compared to Portland. 

WSDOT has taken a much harder line on camp removal this spring overall statewide. Anyone familiar with Swampton in the Orchards area (near the old United Grocers for the locals) it has been removed to the tune of 400+ tons of debris being removed and fencing being added. This happened after one of two major camps burned a few weeks ago which almost spread to a couple businesses. They’ve also done major sweeps of dozens of other smaller camps in the urban core down here which is unprecedented compared to the last five years or so.

They're removing camps over here too.  Camp Hope in Spokane has decreased by like 75%.  not sure where exactly they expect those folks to go?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

They're removing camps over here too.  Camp Hope in Spokane has decreased by like 75%.  not sure where exactly they expect those folks to go?

Straight to hell I say.

[MossMan]

Almost noon in April and it’s 37 degrees and raining…Impressive! .30” so far on the day. 

[T-Town]

Somebody is out looking for bunnies. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ventured down to the festering hellhole of Downtown Portland early last evening to snag some cherry blossom pics. Felt like the dark skies and distant showers added some nice contrast to the showy blooms 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major dumpage in progress...

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro looks WET for later this week. Over 3” of rain for the Portland area through next Saturday. Fantastic to see at this stage.

Puget sound area up to about Everett looks to do well too, then there’s some heavy Olympic shadowing moving north of there up I-5

[ShawniganLake]

Hail!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not bad for noon on April 2nd. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Would be fun if we could break out of the warm spike next Sunday-Tuesday with some thunderstorms. A cutoff piece of energy moving in to our south (seems to be the favored path lately) could offer a decent setup.

[MossMan]

Down to 36 with chunks now. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Tuesday looks like a MEGA MARINE PUSH day on this Euro run. Just two warm days, but mid to upper 70s are looking like a good bet down here.

Also, extrapolating from hour 240, it looks like the northern energy moving down the coast may win out for crashing the pattern, while the ULL hangs offshore. I am sure there will be many changes to this pattern in the coming daze though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Hailing again.

[Doinko]

38 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ventured down to the festering hellhole of Downtown Portland early last evening to snag some cherry blossom pics. Felt like the dark skies and distant showers added some nice contrast to the showy blooms 

 

I was there too yesterday earlier in the day, right during a sunbreak. Dark clouds, sun and the trees were really nice.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know its April when as soon as the snow stops a cascade of drips start coming off the trees. Looking out the kitchen window at the back hill and there are a tremendous amount of birds out there. Several Western Meadowlarks, numerous Juncos, and a pair of Stellar Jays. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

80% snowflakes now! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Slushy rain. 37.0˚F.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know its April when as soon as the snow stops a cascade of drips start coming off the trees. Looking out the kitchen window at the back hill and there are a tremendous amount of birds out there. Several Western Meadowlarks, numerous Juncos, and a pair of Stellar Jays. 

Our front door cam went from winter wonderland to sunny and bare with a dry patio in like 30 minutes.