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PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion


Cascadia_Wx

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Took a couple pics around campus this morning. Interested to see how different those spots will look a week from now and two weeks from now.

56F06D1F-5658-44C3-92BE-E34471282A8E.thumb.jpeg.24c049a2d8901f7837e968a467e713d7.jpeg4F8014DD-D6DA-4CFB-B9E4-7263005362CB.thumb.jpeg.0c7d2b4b0321fdc82832af10faa864c1.jpeg

Pretty sad deal for April 20th.    I bet those trees are still leafed out on November 20th.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Summer 1954 is pretty deserving, at least at KSEA. The warmest it got was 80F flat, which only occurred on a couple days. The summer itself averaged less than 60F, if you can believe it.

That is a crazy stat. Was it more summer stratus than normal or troughs all the way through summer? 

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sad deal for April 20th.    I bet those trees are still leafed out on November 20th.  

1B21039D-E715-4DFA-8F39-AF02CEE4DA74.thumb.jpeg.46b840596d5c587b8fec630af257bcd3.jpeg

This was Sisters, Oregon on 5/21 last year. Those little deciduous trees probably went from bare to leafed in a couple weeks, which isn’t unusual in continental climates.

All depends on how late the leafout finishes. Last year took until about mid-June for everything to finish up completely around here.

 

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The west has been blessed for the last half-year. Payback for the ridging last summer/fall?

I think we can manage a fairly “normal” pattern for the majority of 2023 that remains. Perhaps fewer extremes with conflicting PMM/ENSO phases.

 

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Don’t know much about this one. 

7792A235-1D4E-43A4-BBF2-55D93E9AE8B4.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

9E605B38-5947-4608-BA2E-29AFF2ED9DEA.jpeg

Good morning, all. This upcoming heatwave is going to prevent April from joining the ranks of last year or 2011, but at least there's some semblance of the 'other side of the coin' when it comes to our weather patterns. A heatwave seems somewhat earned.

Would feel more earned though if we didn't just smash a bunch of heat records last Summer and Fall. ;) Now it feels more like torch->chilly->torch, which admittedly is a huge improvement over torch->torch->torch.

Very theoretical since we haven’t gotten the chance to test it often in recent years (only 2019), but it can be argued that a warm pattern in NW North America during mid/late spring could be a “good” sign for a more zonal/less hot summer up there as well as the SW, assuming +ENSO remains SPMM-coupled (which this one should).

The way in which the relationship(s) to the axisymmetrical component(s) of the tropical forcing/circulation change is the reason for this, in addition to the 4CH influence. Saw it in 2019, 1997, 1993, 1957, 1952, etc.

Will be interesting to see if it holds true this year as well. But the patterns observed during May of those years interestingly resembles the upcoming pattern (though I don’t think 2023 will look quite like this, maybe the early part will, but timing a tad different).

IMG_3090.png

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3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

All things considered, the upcoming period looks like a modest warm spell, typical of most springs around here. It doesn't look like any record highs are going to be threatened, maybe a couple days in the low 70s at KSEA if we get lucky. 

 

 

And probably won't last more 3-4 days which is also typical no matter what the models show beforehand.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And probably won't last more 3-4 days which is also typical no matter what the models show beforehand.

Yeah looking short lived. 

55EB0BE1-A71C-4E04-B8A7-C296F6D4AC82.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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7 hours ago, Cloud said:

I don’t remember 2011 at all… but this April has been impressively chilly for average highs for first 18 days. Despite that, 2011 still beat this year out by 1F. 
 

Last April’s also on this list but mostly thanks to the 60 and 73 days on the 6th and 7th. Otherwise last April was also top tier cold. We haven’t come close to that territory this year yet. 
 

One more note about April 2011… the month ended with an average high of 52.2F. That was an incredibly chilly and wet month. And apparently we had no summer to follow. 

 

Different Andrew there.

Screenshot_20230420_101858_DuckDuckGo.thumb.jpg.e2a20f2d99848405b8e676ac4494774b.jpg

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like a wind advisory has been hoisted for almost me! I’m a half mile too south. 😞 

05EC4D62-F9A9-49D5-8490-875D1FB06822.jpeg

FC27102C-4B4A-4DD5-B01F-5F29A13EAC9E.jpeg.a4da82aaa9de82c20fbeec28d1503557.jpeg
Reminds me of this map, lol. I was in Sunriver when this happened. North Klamath and South Deschutes counties have basically the exact same climate and geography, but you know, imaginary line drawn on a map. We did get high winds out of that event.

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Summer 1954 is pretty deserving, at least at KSEA. The warmest it got was 80F flat, which only occurred on a couple days. The summer itself averaged less than 60F, if you can believe it.

Could you imagine the "discourse" if this took place in 2023

XmvagP02yh.png

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7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Could you imagine the "discourse" if this took place in 2023

XmvagP02yh.png

New Discourses. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Could you imagine the "discourse" if this took place in 2023

XmvagP02yh.png

Kind of crazy/terrifying that a map like that from only 75 years ago is from a different climate and will never be repeated in our lifetimes. The best we could hope for now is one of those shades of blue, and if that did happen there would probably have been so much persistent blocking that we would be surrounded by red on both sides. 

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9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Could you imagine the "discourse" if this took place in 2023

XmvagP02yh.png

Someone says the same thing every year at this time.   Last year supposedly had a decent shot to be similar.  😀

But even so... about half the days in July and August were in the 70s in Seattle that year.   So there was some nice weather mixed in.   If that is the low bar for worst summer... it's still better than an average summer in Anchorage!    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don’t know much about this one. 

7792A235-1D4E-43A4-BBF2-55D93E9AE8B4.jpeg

My guess is a clear and chilly start with an antecedent cold airmass, then overrunning precip moving in right around daybreak, maybe some cool east winds at PDX. Kind of like today…

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don’t know much about this one. 

7792A235-1D4E-43A4-BBF2-55D93E9AE8B4.jpeg

Think it was just a deformation band on the back end of a deep trough. Focused more squarely on NW OR. SEA was 52/38 that day and  BLI was 54/42.

Not nearly as interesting as the big 4/22/1961 deformation zone which had heavy enough precip rates in the morning that it dropped a couple inches of snow here.

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5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Good morning, all. This upcoming heatwave is going to prevent April from joining the ranks of last year or 2011, but at least there's some semblance of the 'other side of the coin' when it comes to our weather patterns. A heatwave seems somewhat earned.

Would feel more earned though if we didn't just smash a bunch of heat records last Summer and Fall. ;) Now it feels more like torch->chilly->torch, which admittedly is a huge improvement over torch->torch->torch.

Last12mTDeptWRCC-NW.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That was a cold one regionwide. Only summer in history that PDX didn’t hit 90 at least once. Max of just 86 that summer.

1954 is definitely the king of summers without summers in the PNW, at least in the airport era. Interestingly it was also an absolutely roasting summer out in the plains. Like dust bowl 2.0 status.

Indeed. Hottest pre-2000 July at DEN.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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5 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That was a cold one regionwide. Only summer in history that PDX didn’t hit 90 at least once. Max of just 86 that summer.

1954 is definitely the king of summers without summers in the PNW, at least in the airport era. Interestingly it was also an absolutely roasting summer out in the plains. Like dust bowl 2.0 status.

Wanted to put an addendum in here. The warm season high of 86 was on May 17th. June-September all topped out in the low 80s at the highest. Sounds pretty nice really.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I am intrigued at how much closer that energy to our east trended on this run. Almost cuts the ridge off entirely at points. Although at this range it could just be noise.

It is a thin section of warm anomalies on this run. Keto ridge 😂

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wanted to put an addendum in here. The warm season high of 86 was on May 17th. June-September all topped out in the low 80s at the highest. Sounds pretty nice really.

Exactly. Summer will never be wet in our region. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Think it was just a deformation band on the back end of a deep trough. Focused more squarely on NW OR. SEA was 52/38 that day and  BLI was 54/42.

Not nearly as interesting as the big 4/22/1961 deformation zone which had heavy enough precip rates in the morning that it dropped a couple inches of snow here.

It was in the 60s here that day. 
 

Places further north on Vancouver island recorded their largest mid April snowfall, since that 1961 trough, earlier this week.  There is still snow on the ground in some areas up around Campbell river. 

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20 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It was in the 60s here that day. 
 

Places further north on Vancouver island recorded their largest mid April snowfall, since that 1961 trough, earlier this week.  There is still snow on the ground in some areas up around Campbell river. 

How much snow has that area had this winter/spring?

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FWIW... the 12Z EPS is actually a little wider with the ridge late next week compared to its 00Z run.   Its been very consistent.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2683200 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Rainy day. We are gonna miss these. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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