PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yep. And the warm days are just that, normal warm days, a few degrees above average. Not much torching at the sfc.

Going forward definitely. Although at least down here the heatwave the last three days was pretty notable. And handful of spots in Oregon approaching or breaking all time April highs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Going forward definitely. Although at least down here the heatwave the last three days was pretty notable. And handful of spots in Oregon approaching or breaking all time April highs.

Yep. SLE hit 91, only a dummy like the guy who gave you a weenie reax would blow that off…

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

5/22/13?

Great winter on this side. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Watered for the first time this winter. Almost forgot how to program auto system. Hopefully will be able to turn it off after looking at the 12z for a few weeks.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yep. SLE hit 91, only a dummy like the guy who gave you a weenie reax would blow that off…

Waahhh.   I can hand out meaningless negative reactions just like you dummies.  

I started tracking that warm spell during the second week of April based on the MJO.    Was not surprise and so welcomed by the landscape.  Next one up in mid May.   We don't control the weather Andrew.

[Cascadia_Wx]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yep. SLE hit 91, only a dummy like the guy who gave you a weenie reax would blow that off…

Was that a new monthly record for SLE? I’ve been too lazy to look.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 hours ago, Blizzard777 said:

Looks like I missed the beautiful days back at home but being spoiled down in the SW .  Hope you’re all well.  Looking forward to T-Storm season !!!

Subway Cave Sedona

Gunlock Falls UT

Antelope Canyon tour

 

 

These are great! Well done

[ShawniganLake]

Back to the clouds today after the bountiful blessings of brilliant warm sunshine these past few days.  It was nice to see everyone so excited and energetic with the summer like weather. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Was that a new monthly record for SLE? I’ve been too lazy to look.

They hit 93 in 1926 I think

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

They hit 93 in 1926 I think

Yeah, thank the lord it wasn’t even a daily record!

Edited April 30 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

They hit 93 in 1926 I think

That would make sense. I remembered that was a crazy warm April, especially for back then. It was warmer than April 2016 at downtown Portland.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That would make sense. I remembered that was a crazy warm April, especially for back then. It was warmer than April 2016 at downtown Portland.

The data for that month at Salem is really crazy. They hit 87 twice in mid April in addition to the 82, 84, 83 , 91, and 93 at the end of the month. +8 departure overall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s amazing SLE will still end up with a below average month in which they hit 91. 

[LowerGarfield]

Currently 78F outside. Warm but about 6 degrees less than yesterday.

[Ken in Wood Village]

The next 60 hours are looking interesting. I wanted to look and see what the thunderstorm potential was for a friend who lives in Post Falls, ID. Looks like he could get hit multiple times and some of those thunderstorms could be severe. 

I actually love this time of year when we see thunderstorms. Again, if I had the money, I would storm chase

[TacomaWx]

Ended up with 76/52 yesterday and a much more seasonable 61/48 today. Despite the significant summer like warm spell to end the month we still finished -1.5F below average this month. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another silly overachiever today. Most guidance had PDX in the low 60s for highs and they have been at least 65-66 so far. Much like yesterday when around 80 was widely forecast but they hit 85. I always like weather patterns where we underachieve compared to guidance, seems they are pretty rare.

[TT-SEA]

Remember the discussion about the exaggerated snowfall maps all winter distorting perceptions?  I really think the ECMWF cold bias is related to the perception that temps are always overachieving in the warm season.   

Today was not even that sunny but it appears that the ECMWF will end up too cold at SEA and PDX by about 4 degrees.   And I think the ECMWF is main source of local forecasts in the short range.   So if the ECMWF shows 65 and the official forecast is 65 then its all good.   But it showed 61.

And the same two will mock this post even though I am right... and they will continue to lament the overachieving temps.    Add 5 degrees to the ECMWF output and then determine if actual temps overachieved.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember the discussion about the exaggerated snowfall maps all winter distorting perceptions?  I really think the ECMWF cold bias is related to the perception that temps are always overachieving in the warm season.   

Today was not even that sunny but it appears that the ECMWF will end up too cold at SEA and PDX by about 4 degrees.   And I think the ECMWF is main source of local forecasts in the short range.   So if the ECMWF shows 65 and the official forecast is 65 then its all good.   But it showed 61.

And the same two will mock this post even though I am right... and they will continue to lament the overachieving temps.    Add 5 degrees to the ECMWF output and then determine if actual temps overachieved.

57 here today. Not much of an overachiever. And the snow maps were spot on here this winter. Resolution just becomes an issue below 500'. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only 62 at SLE for a high today. Spent a few hours down at AG FEST and it was pleasant. 

[TT-SEA]

850mb temps were right at normal today over Portland.    Onshore flow is weak with ULL offshore.   Normal high is 66 today and actual will probably be 65.   Seems like the high ended up right where it should with this pattern.  

But it is fun to watch the cold misers squirm and complain so I probably shouldn't be too logical about it.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

850mb temps were right at normal today over Portland.    Onshore flow is weak with ULL offshore.   Normal high is 66 today and actual will probably be 65.   Seems like this high ended up right where it should with this pattern.  

But it is fun to watch the cold misers squirm and complain so I probably shouldn't be too logical about it.   

Fact check. The high was 66.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fact check. The high was 66.

Perfectly normal!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Final April Stats

Max: 82

Min: 29

Avg Max: 50.6

Avg Min: 36.2

Mean: 43.4

Precip: 8.66"

Daily Precip Max: 1.82"

Snow: 10.6"

Days with measurable snow: 5

Days with precip: 22

Sub-freezing lows: 11

Sub-40 highs: 4

Sub-50 highs: 17

70+: 3

80+: 1

Edited May 1 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cascadia_Wx]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Final April Stats

Max: 82

Min: 29

Avg Max: 50.6

Avg Min: 36.2

Mean: 43.4

Precip: 8.66"

Daily Precip Max: 1.82"

Snow: 10.6"

Days with measurable snow: 5

Days with precip: 22

Sub-freezing lows: 11

Sub-40 highs: 4

Sub-50 highs: 17

70+: 3

80+: 1

Good stuff Andrew.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good stuff Andrew.

Thanks! Ended up a little warmer, drier, and less snowy than last April, but still #2 in those categories in the time I've been here. 

[GHweatherChris]

Weird, the only complaining I see from today on here is Randy about a little smoke from a controlled burn and a certain someone taking things a little too personal and lashing out and concocting a narrative that isn't even a thing today on the forum.

By the way, today was a nice day, some mist, high of 56!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Weird, the only complaining I see from today on here is Randy about a little smoke from a controlled burn and a certain someone taking things a little too personal and lashing out and concocting a narrative that isn't even a thing today on the forum.

By the way, today was a nice day, some mist, high of 56!!

I burn pretty much every day from whenever it dries out enough to get a pile lit, until it dries out and a burn ban gets put in place. I usually only light 1-2 big wet piles a year like the one Randy complains about. Usually I just burn in my fire pit, sometimes I keep it going for days, just throwing a little in at a time. Not sure how Randy would handle the grass field burning in late summer...

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I burn pretty much every day from whenever it dries out enough to get a pile lit, until it dries out and a burn ban gets put in place. I usually only light 1-2 big wet piles a year like the one Randy complains about. Usually I just burn in my fire pit, sometimes I keep it going for days, just throwing a little in at a time. Not sure how Randy would handle the grass field burning in late summer...

To each their own, I am sure Randy has actual serious reasons why he takes issue with, which is understandable.  But for someone to create a narrative on the forum today that doesn't exist, is petty and childish.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 64/50 day here. Morning and early afternoon clouds with some spots of drizzle, then more in the way of sunbreaks later on.

Mostly sunny and 62 now, pretty nice evening.

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Weird, the only complaining I see from today on here is Randy about a little smoke from a controlled burn and a certain someone taking things a little too personal and lashing out and concocting a narrative that isn't even a thing today on the forum.

By the way, today was a nice day, some mist, high of 56!!

Just offering some insights on the overachieving complaining.   Just like with the perception that we always underachieve with snow... its mostly related to model issues.

[MossMan]

62/44 on the day. 
Currently 55. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Definitely a fan of the 18z GFS and ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

To each their own, I am sure Randy has actual serious reasons why he takes issue with, which is understandable.  But for someone to create a narrative on the forum today that doesn't exist, is petty and childish.

I didn't complain about overachieving... I just theorized on a possible reason.   But If I was complaining about underachieving I am sure you would call me out for that too.     What you are doing seems petty and childish.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely a fan of the 18z GFS and ensembles.

Could be a pretty special month as far as precip goes. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could be a pretty special month as far as precip goes. 

So good to see.

[Deweydog]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember the discussion about the exaggerated snowfall maps all winter distorting perceptions?  I really think the ECMWF cold bias is related to the perception that temps are always overachieving in the warm season.   

Today was not even that sunny but it appears that the ECMWF will end up too cold at SEA and PDX by about 4 degrees.   And I think the ECMWF is main source of local forecasts in the short range.   So if the ECMWF shows 65 and the official forecast is 65 then its all good.   But it showed 61.

And the same two will mock this post even though I am right... and they will continue to lament the overachieving temps.    Add 5 degrees to the ECMWF output and then determine if actual temps overachieved.

Yesterday was definitely an overachiever down here. A true blessing. To pull off an 85 degree day in April with those specs is pretty impressive. 

Edited May 1 by Deweydog

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So good to see.

Willamette Basin snow pack is still 232% of normal to date. Looks like it is tied with 1985 for 4th highest snow pack for the date, behind 1999, 2008, and 1982. 

Looks like this was the 3rd best snowpack in the Willamette Basin this century behind 2008 and 2002. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In Eastern Oregon this was generally the best snowpack since 1989. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

May is a big month for rainfall in Central and Eastern Oregon. The upcoming pattern looks pretty solid for those areas. Going to be some great fishing out that way in the next few years if everything goes right. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Why is the new logo so small?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Why is the new logo so small?

Looks like @iFred is playing with the layout again. Font has changed tonight. I like it better than that strange one that was in use the past several days.

[hawkstwelve]

I'm messing around with some things to try and get them back to a more normal feel/layout after the hack. Will try to test most changes on the non-production side but ya'll might still see some fluctuations for a little bit longer. 

Also, please shoot me a DM if you find any piece of the site that looks funky theme-wise over the next couple days so I can fix it. 

[LowerGarfield]

The new font has livejournal vibes circa 20 years ago lol. But not bad.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Some showers are popping up along the Cascades 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I burn pretty much every day from whenever it dries out enough to get a pile lit, until it dries out and a burn ban gets put in place. I usually only light 1-2 big wet piles a year like the one Randy complains about. Usually I just burn in my fire pit, sometimes I keep it going for days, just throwing a little in at a time. Not sure how Randy would handle the grass field burning in late summer...

Here, you’re only allowed to burn yard waste 1 month in the fall and 1 month in the spring.  And you can only burn on days with an appropriate venting index.  You can bring yard waste to the dump for free anytime though, which has cut back noticeably on the amount of smoke from people’s yards. 

[TT-SEA]

How about them Kraken!!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Here, you’re only allowed to burn yard waste 1 month in the fall and 1 month in the spring.  And you can only burn on days with an appropriate venting index.  You can bring yard waste to the dump for free anytime though, which has cut back noticeably on the amount of smoke from people’s yards. 

There is a number we call to tell us if burning is allowed that day. Up here in the foothills it's generally open every day during backyard burn season which generally runs March 15-mid-June and then October through December 15th. But because we have over 2 acres we are exempt from some of those limitations too. Often when there is an inversion or light winds, burning will be restricted in the valley, but that's not much of an issue up here. Smoke must settle in Mossman's area. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Strange storm track

[Front Ranger]

Been in Jackson Hole, WY the last few days. Visited Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks, both of which I'd been to many years ago but never in the spring.