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Rise in Stochastic Events


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I've decided to start this topic for those who are interested in discussing the vast amount of stochastic activity happening across the globe. Over the past year, we have seen several large scale volcanic eruptions both in the high latitudes and across the Tropics which spewed highly concentrated volcanic ash high into the atmosphere. The earth has awakened, earthquakes are becoming more active all around the world. I believe we are entering into a long period, perhaps years, of tremendous activity which will not only keep the earth rumbling but cause chaos for local communities or possibly larger scale events that ensue vast regions of the world into disorder.

 

Let's discuss....

 

Overnight, Australia just recorded a 6.6 magnitude earthquake...

 

https://www.news.com.au/national/66-magnitude-earthquake-hits-off-coast-of-wa/news-story/cda8f345f2ca0e6c963314d79805710d

 

 

More recently in the U.S., California experienced it's first major earthquake in over 2 decades which may have awaken the major fault lines. Some scientists believe this may even activate volcano's in the western U.S.

With 1215 viewers in 2 weeks I want to refocus this thread.

Tom and I have been talking behind the scenes and we know this thread is more than a just another thread. We know we are onto something. We both have many years of observations and reporting of either weather or earth science.

It is so important that posters stay focused on their observations or research that is responding to the Event. We welcome these. These are very early days but it is clear we're dealing with a new page in human history.

 

Bring your research, observations and data and add it to the pile. We aren't interested in politics or religion, just facts.

The facts will lead us to answers. That's what we're after.

This is a historic time in science and world events.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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With 1215 viewers in 2 weeks I want to refocus this thread.

Tom and I have been talking behind the scenes and we know this thread is more than a just another thread. We know we are onto something. We both have many years of observations and reporting of either weather or earth science.

It is so important that posters stay focused on their observations or research that is responding to the Event. We welcome these. These are very early days but it is clear we're dealing with a new page in human history.

 

Bring your research, observations and data and add it to the pile. We aren't interested in politics or religion, just facts.

The facts will lead us to answers. That's what we're after.

This is a historic time in science and world events.

Well said Andie. I’d love to see this topic grow in interest throughout the entire Forum and hopefully we get the approval from the “higher ups” to do so.

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Oh, I agree so whole heartedly. 

 

Further, I would Love to see people from the outside that are reading/lurking with research or knowledge that can enhance this effort  to see the big picture to join in as a poster and share their research, news, or thoughts.

 

Please, if you are currently involved in research in the area...if you are working (individually or with others) to gather information that would support documenting these early signs of major climate change due to the GSM, please join and post. 

 

We are getting attention by folks.  We'd really like to know who and we'd like to build this body of information.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Volcanos reported today

 

Volcanic Ash Advisory between 8,000 & 24,000 ft./Aviation Warnings

 

Etna-

Dukono

Reventador

Popocatéptl

 

Explosive Activity Reported

 

Sakurajima

Sangeang Api

Sabancaya

Popocatéptl

 

Earthquakes 5.0+

 

Papua New Guinea 5.2

New Zealand 5.1

Java, Indonesia 5.0, (4.8 Pre Quake)

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Volcanos reported today

 

Volcanic Ash Advisory between 8,000 & 24,000 ft./Aviation Warnings

 

Etna-

Dukono

Reventador

Popocatéptl

 

Explosive Activity Reported

 

Sakurajima

Sangeang Api

Sabancaya

Popocatéptl

 

Earthquakes 5.0+

 

Papua New Guinea 5.2

New Zealand 5.1

Java, Indonesia 5.0, (4.8 Pre Quake)

Those are the ones we're looking for. Punching the stratosphere. Awesome.

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Well, if you liked the book, you'll love the movie.

Space Weather experts gathered with NOAA and issued a report worth checking out.

_____________________

 

April 10, 2019: If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA’s annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026.

 

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp.

 

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

IMG_3840.PNG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Well, if you liked the book, you'll love the movie.

Space Weather experts gathered with NOAA and issued a report worth checking out.

_____________________

 

April 10, 2019: If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA’s annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026.

 

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp.

 

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

Well! That's impressive. The current data would reflect that, aside from a brief spike in activity last year, we've been near or below the minimum classification for nearly 18 mos. with 2 years or better to go. Would this be a fair assessment, based on data, in your opinion?

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I think in terms of predictions this is Phil's or Tom's territory.

I take many of the Solar scientists at their word that this next one will be lower, the sun quieter, and our planet will continue with part 2 of this Minimum.

Thing is, this may be the norm for a while if these folks are right. Cooler, wetter.

 

But here's a flash back to 2018 and an article on the mesosphere regarding increased water vapor.

https://nextgrandminimum.com/2018/08/15/a-mystery-in-the-mesosphere/

 

IMG_3841.PNG

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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As we move out into the jovian system the data is less. The current solar minimum Infuence is lost. Most of the energy source is tidal. This does, however, extend the 'Goldilocks zone' on both the macro and micro levels.

 

The best example is Io. A small moon with the most vulcanized surface in the solar system. A continuous resurfacing with no visible craters. This gross exaggeration of tidal process extends a heat source well beyond solar boundaries.

 

io03_sk12.jpg

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Ganymede is an ice moon of Jupiter. Water ice and possible microbic interaction with tidal heating is presented in this true color image. A subsurface ocean is possible, but depth is likely shallow. Recent impacts show surface water ice thickness.

 

ganymedeenhanced_galileo.jpg

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Wxmidatlantic, you're one of the few other people I know that knows the value of music. Theres more truth in music than there is in most other places or in loose words of today. That last one, the Big Fitz, that whole story, when researched out is both as mysterious as it is majestic and mighty. It was such a multifaceted collision of power of nature, power and enduring heart of man, etc.... it was an event that changed the hearts of men and still does to this day. If I ever go to the lakes and I don't get to go to the museum at Whitefish Point, MI, it would break my heart.

People speak of it as almost a holy place. It changes you.

It's one that just leaves you in awe and I wasnt even alive. Those guys wanted to be the best and beat the best every single time. Even if it was themselves. Nothing more American than that.

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A good deal of Volcanic Activity today. This is expected during a solar Minimum.

 

Volcanic Explosions up to 24,000' seen at:

 

Karymsky

Sangeang Api

Popocatepetl

Sangay

Reventador

Sabancaya

 

Strombolian Explosions seen at Stromboli and Shiveluch

 

Volcanic Ash seen at:

 

Fuego

Kerinici

Dukono

Aso

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Quakes >5.0

 

5.7 El Salvador

5.0 New Zealand

5.0 New Zealand

5.0 Southern Mid Atlantic

5.0 Vanuatu Islands

5.0 Crete, Greece

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Many thanks to IFred and Tom for organizing this forum and thread.

 

This topic will remain on the forefront of science for a very long time.

I hope readers will bring more information and join in. . This is going to be a big subject.

 

Remember, all off topic posts should go to the Off Topic forum.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Quiet day.

 

5.2 Unalaska, Alaska. Depth 22 km.

5.1 Philippines 10km

5.0 Java, Indonesia. 10kn

 

Explosive Volcanic Activity. (Relatively busy)

 

Karymsky

Uluwin

Dukono

Sangeang Api

Awu

Sabancaya

Nevados de Chillan

 

Volcanic Ash Advisory ...(1st 3 Japan)

 

Ebeko

Aso

Suwanos-jima

Popocatepetl

Reventador

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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As the climate gets colder and weather shifts.......

 

Humanity's next test: feed 10 billion without ruining Earth

 

https://phys.org/news/2019-08-humanity-billion-earth.html

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Feel free to jump in here and talk about this.

Lot's of opinions vary on the depths of this Minimum and many dispute the role of the sun, which confounds me.

We want people to weigh in on this. Bring news and studies.

This isn't just a news thread. It's about building a body of shared information.

Please share.

 

https://www.livescience.com/61716-sun-cooling-global-warming.html

 

Global Warming vs. Solar Cooling: The Showdown Begins in 2020

 

...it's unlikely that we'll see a return to the extreme cold from centuries ago, researchers reported in a new study. Since the Maunder Minimum, global average temperatures have been on the rise, driven by climate change. Though a new decades-long dip in solar radiation could slow global warming somewhat, it wouldn't be by much, the researchers' simulations demonstrated. And by the end of the incoming cooling period, temperatures would have bounced back from the temporary cooldown.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Can someone explain how we're getting these right now? I thought a quiet sun would prohibit these.

Just love them. Beautiful pictures Tom.

 

I hope to see these live one day. I understand they make sounds sometimes. Amazing things.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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There has been lots of talk about a big earthquake in Utah where I live at some point. Apparently up to 7.0-7.5 is possible. I've done my best to get ready but I hope it never comes. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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The science is pretty loose on the difference between solar cycle and CMEs but this gets close to explaining. No one is going to fully say what the sun does or does not do until the truthless generation passes away from our science.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-auroras-solar-cycle-minimum-maximum-related-2017-12

 

The knowledge behind this is that when solar activity is low, CMEs (coronal mass ejections) of plasma and particles increase, so I think in terms of Aurora, it cancels out. The signs of nature will always be. Always. They'll never lie either.

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Heres a good read on volcanism and climate cooling. Its evidence-backed. It makes you go "wow"...

 

https://www.washington.edu/news/blog/ice-cores-tree-rings-show-how-huge-volcanic-eruptions-cooled-the-planet/

 

A quote or excerpt that should stir the mind a bit.....

 

"Other co-authors on the paper translated and interpreted ancient and medieval documentary records from China, the Middle East and Europe that described unusual atmospheric observations as early as 254 B.C. These phenomena included diminished sunlight, discoloration of the solar disk, the presence of solar coronae and deeply red twilight skies.

 

Throughout human history, cooler climates from major eruptions have triggered crop failures and famines, contributing to pandemics and social unrest in agricultural communities.

 

The authors note that their findings may resolve a long-standing debate regarding the causes of one of the most severe climate crises in recent human history. The trouble began in 536, when a “mystery cloud” or dust veil observed in the Mediterranean appeared and persisted for 18 months. Authors linked this harbinger with a large eruption in the northern high latitudes.

 

A mere four years later, a second volcano erupted somewhere in the tropics and intensified the cooling effect. In the aftermath, unusually cold summers were observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere for nearly 15 years."

 

These people know this. Its indisputable. I don't know how to say it any more clearly. I just can't. I mean, theres no guessing. Ice, linked year-for-year with tree evidence and known volcanic eruptions. Undeniable, real physical evidence. Even complete with ash and sulfites, in most cases.

 

Remember in our US history, the year without a summer was only one year and it freaked everyone out. One year.

 

Without irradiance (red wavelength) the sun is already at it's coolest in low solar. That is fact also.

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The Gulf Stream is slowing.

It's hard to say whether the slowing of the Gulf Stream is related to the solar Minimum.

I'm going to post this here anyway. I read an article around 2004 about one of the columns or pumps in the North Atlantic slowing to a near stop. The study was by Cambridge Univ. I've looked for it many times but can't locate it.

 

Now this article surfaces and confirms much of what I read, although it doesn't mention the pumps.

My question is - is this a sign that the earth is going into a new phase?

Is it related to the GSM or is it part of an even more complex dynamic?

 

Read it in that context and tell me what you think.

 

https://phys.org/news/2019-08-gulf-stream-seas-hotter-florida.html

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Feel free to jump in here and talk about this.

Lot's of opinions vary on the depths of this Minimum and many dispute the role of the sun, which confounds me.

We want people to weigh in on this. Bring news and studies.

This isn't just a news thread. It's about building a body of shared information.

Please share.

 

https://www.livescience.com/61716-sun-cooling-global-warming.html

 

Global Warming vs. Solar Cooling: The Showdown Begins in 2020

 

...it's unlikely that we'll see a return to the extreme cold from centuries ago, researchers reported in a new study. Since the Maunder Minimum, global average temperatures have been on the rise, driven by climate change. Though a new decades-long dip in solar radiation could slow global warming somewhat, it wouldn't be by much, the researchers' simulations demonstrated. And by the end of the incoming cooling period, temperatures would have bounced back from the temporary cooldown.

 

Interesting that the creator of "web bots", himself a predictive analytics expert and not known for any weather forum, etc has been talking up an impending ice age. Pointing at 2024 as not only a Solar Minimum, but the nexis of the 400+ yr cycle which brought about the Maunder Minimum. He also stated that we're currently over-due on the larger cycle of approx. 100,000 years repeating of "cold periods" in our planet's history. His tone was fairly alarmist from a growing season concern standpoint. Again, from someone completely outside the professional weather community. I was quite surprised tbh. Unless we were to see a repeat of whatever conditions bring on the 100K cycle of cold, I'm leaning with others that the effects of this upcoming GSM will be less severe than the last time it happened due to the current warming period brought about by our cosmic position in the galactic ring. Interesting times nonetheless. "Don't touch that dial.."

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Interesting that the creator of "web bots", himself a predictive analytics expert and not known for any weather forum, etc has been talking up an impending ice age. Pointing at 2024 as not only a Solar Minimum, but the nexis of the 400+ yr cycle which brought about the Maunder Minimum. He also stated that we're currently over-due on the larger cycle of approx. 100,000 years repeating of "cold periods" in our planet's history. His tone was fairly alarmist from a growing season concern standpoint. Again, from someone completely outside the professional weather community. I was quite surprised tbh. Unless we were to see a repeat of whatever conditions bring on the 100K cycle of cold, I'm leaning with others that the effects of this upcoming GSM will be less severe than the last time it happened due to the current warming period brought about by our cosmic position in the galactic ring. Interesting times nonetheless. "Don't touch that dial.."

it will be interesting to see what happens Robert Filex certainly would agree and has been stating that the cycles of the next ice age cycle are due at any time.Alot of people are as you may know are after Robert and I'm sure he knows many our after him.only time will tell in the end who will prove correct.
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So what are the individual opinions on this forum?

 

I’m very interested in everyone’s point of view.

 

I believe we’re headed to a cool wet period. It will affect the agriculture industry and that will trickle into the economy and ultimately society changes.

Not the end of the world but challenging long term

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Everyone's been incredibly quiet lately. Tell me, there have been over 65 earthquakes in Kansas and Oklahoma over the past week.

Now, to put it plainly, ...that ain't normal.

 

As this is a solar Minimum thread perhaps we should consider that this might be a side effect of the GSM. Quakes pick up during that period, as does volcanic action which has been pretty stable lately. Something's always popping off, but no big ones as yet. The next solar cycle is forecast to be lower than this last one. So, maybe things are just getting warmed up.

 

I'll ask again....any thoughts on this? Or are you just content to read and not think and share?

 

It's getting weird out there. And it will affect us all.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Everyone's been incredibly quiet lately. Tell me, there have been over 65 earthquakes in Kansas and Oklahoma over the past week.

Now, to put it plainly, ...that ain't normal.

As this is a solar Minimum thread perhaps we should consider that this might be a side effect of the GSM. Quakes pick up during that period, as does volcanic action which has been pretty stable lately. Something's always popping off, but no big ones as yet. The next solar cycle is forecast to be lower than this last one. So, maybe things are just getting warmed up.

I'll ask again....any thoughts on this? Or are you just content to read and not think and share?

It's getting weird out there. And it will affect us all.

it would indeed be nice to here others input as one thing about grand solar minimums are the increase in volcano eruptions.It will be interesting to see how this plays out.Robert Filex has been stating that the cycles of the ice age are all due.
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