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One could possibly say that the solar era around 1918-2018 is officially over. I don't know any other years in that span as low as what we have seen this year. Someone may be able to correct me on that.

 

I, for one, am anxious to see the effects of this.

 

This looks like it will come in lower than the deep three cycle minimum in the late 19th century through 1914.  That was the lowest activity since the Dalton minimum and this minimum plus the last one were deeper than any of the three minimums during that span.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Snow_wizard, this is what I thought also. The thing now will be timing the lag effect of this to see where we end up in say 3, 7, 15 or 30 years down the road. We know that some effects are near immediate but others show a lag in the data.

 

I hate that agenda driven science has hampered open research and made it more difficult over the last 10 years to just go and reference raw data like I could when I was younger.

 

I'd like to find the full sea ice records from 1949-1980 somewhere if I could but I doubt that will ever happen.

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x-ray flux has now dropped to A4.0 after being in the A6.0 to A7.0 range for quite soime time.  A4.0 is the lowest in many months.  It has now been over three months since there was a major sunspot or a C class flare.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Snow_wizard, this is what I thought also. The thing now will be timing the lag effect of this to see where we end up in say 3, 7, 15 or 30 years down the road. We know that some effects are near immediate but others show a lag in the data.

 

I hate that agenda driven science has hampered open research and made it more difficult over the last 10 years to just go and reference raw data like I could when I was younger.

 

I'd like to find the full sea ice records from 1949-1980 somewhere if I could but I doubt that will ever happen.

 

I would guess more extreme atmospheric blocking is one of the more immediate effects and global cooling will be more of a lag.  We are probably still seeing a lag effect from the recent grand maximum.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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"We are probably still seeing a lag effect from the recent grand maximum."

I agree with this wholeheartedly. If this is the case, may have to wait another 5-10 years for real effects to show up from the sun's part alone.

 

The volcanism, blocking, weather variances and earthquakes should start nearly anytime over the next 6 months though. (Technically they're mostly all underway already) The southern hemisphere has just experienced some of the most radical stratwarming in observed history if my research is still on point. That says a lot, in my opinion. 2002 was close, but apparently this one is "off the chain". It just doesn't happen. Will be interesting to see if our northern friend can do the same this winter.

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As the end of the growing season is fast approaching, I"m worried about our ag belt up across the northern CONUS. If we get a Freeze to hit, it'll be devastating for the farmers.  

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-farmers-battered-by-low-commodity-prices-and-trade-war-brace-for-things-to-get-much-worse-2019-09-11?mod=mw_latestnews

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Interesting. That should be New Madrid area. Or at least a kissin' cousin.

 

Now this: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2091-six-quakes-hit-near-great-smokies/?do=findComment&comment=487849

 

I have no idea if this is part of the big picture. It is, however, uncharacteristic.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Interesting. That should be New Madrid area. Or at least a kissin' cousin.

 

Now this: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2091-six-quakes-hit-near-great-smokies/?do=findComment&comment=487849

 

I have no idea if this is part of the big picture. It is, however, uncharacteristic.

Yeah. That's Cherokee, NC on that map.

Lol@Arkansas puns...."kissin cousins". :lol:

Poor Arkies, can't catch a break. :lol:

 

Jokes aside, yes, those are very clearly the edges of new Madrid area. Big earthquakes for the time we're in. There's no outside influence whatsoever in the NC area. So it can't be from fracking or the like.

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I just don't recall hearing much regarding quakes in NC and I've followed US quakes a long time.

East coast quakes are pretty few and far between.

 

Actually, I like Arkansas. Nice place to get away from all the city clutter.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I just don't recall hearing much regarding quakes in NC and I've followed US quakes a long time.

East coast quakes are pretty few and far between.

 

Actually, I like Arkansas. Nice place to get away from all the city clutter.

Yeah. Southwest, west-central and south central Arkansas are pretty awesome places. Truly beautiful. Northwest Arkansas is beautiful also but the people are becoming sketchy as heck. Lot of progressivism and major immigration area.

 

I don't think I've ever heard of an earthquake near Cherokee, NC in my life. Pretty amazing.

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I would guess more extreme atmospheric blocking is one of the more immediate effects and global cooling will be more of a lag.  We are probably still seeing a lag effect from the recent grand maximum.

one could make an argurement that perhaps that one reason why we haven't seen the cooling really take off yet we never really seen to many cases where we go from one of the highest solar maxumums cycles to now going into a very low ones.so how this all plays out is still very much an open question.
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one could make an argurement that perhaps that one reason why we haven't seen the cooling really take off yet we never really seen to many cases where we go from one of the highest solar maxumums cycles to now going into a very low ones.so how this all plays out is still very much an open question.

I agree also. In my mind, it's tantamount to grabbing the string on a pendulum and pulling it the opposite direction. Going to get a different direction out of it, but the bottom of the pendulum won't just stop that easily.

 

Fanciful way of saying that I believe we'll see a snap back, or swing back effect after forward momentum ceases. Especially if all our concurrent cycles all cross one another.

 

I personally believe that the anomalous double qbo and warm pooling in the NPAC over parts of the last decade are effects of this change, with more to come.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Lol, I won't, promise.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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  • 2 weeks later...

Sorry to be gone so long.

Health stuff plus publishing a book has had its complications.

 

Anyway, this is an awesome article from 2013 on the coming cooling epoch.

Noted Russian solar scientist Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov wrote the article and good science knows no publishing date.

 

Check this out.

 

https://www.climatedepot.com/2013/12/04/new-paper-russian-solar-physicist-by-habibullo-abdussamatov-predicts-another-little-ice-age-within-the-next-30-years/

 

"The Sun is the main factor controlling the climatic system and even non-significant long-term TSI variations may have serious consequences for the climate of the Earth and other planets of the Solar system. Quasi-bicentennial solar cycles are the key to understanding cyclic changes in both the nature and the society. The sign and value of the energy imbalance in the Earth-atmosphere system over a long time span (excess of incoming TSI accumulated by the Ocean, or its deficiency) determine a corresponding change of the energy state of the system and, hence, a forthcoming climate variation and its amplitude. That is why the Earth’s climate will change every 200±70 years; and it is the result of bicentennial cyclic TSI variation."

 

IMG_3962.JPG

 

Also Re: warming on Mars measured over a decade ago.

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20070306233723/http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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There was a lot of great evidence posted and published pre-1014 before the bigger propaganda pushes took over. Those articles line up well with stuff I have found as well.

 

The CP Niños, volcanism (last check 200% of normal), low solar, all point to one thing, the end of a warm "epoch" or era. The fact that sometimes these can drop us 2°c in a matter of 3 years should have every person at attention.

 

Yet, like the grasshopper (the Left) in the story of preparing for winter, I think their plan is to take from the ants instead of doing the right things when disaster comes. If we go colder and faster than the descent from 1957-1961 period (which all evidence says we will, the next 3 years are going to be devastating in many places.

 

Significant changes on tap by 2021

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There was a lot of great evidence posted and published pre-1014 before the bigger propaganda pushes took over. Those articles line up well with stuff I have found as well.

The CP Niños, volcanism (last check 200% of normal), low solar, all point to one thing, the end of a warm "epoch" or era. The fact that sometimes these can drop us 2°c in a matter of 3 years should have every person at attention.

Yet, like the grasshopper (the Left) in the story of preparing for winter, I think their plan is to take from the ants instead of doing the right things when disaster comes. If we go colder and faster than the descent from 1957-1961 period (which all evidence says we will, the next 3 years are going to be devastating in many places.

Significant changes on tap by 2021

Robert Filex posted this just now on his blog site https://www.iceagenow.info/temperatures-now-lower-than-during-most-of-the-last-630-million-years/#more-29729 and also these very recently https://www.iceagenow.info/why-will-this-solar-minimum-be-different/ and plus this one https://www.iceagenow.info/the-handwriting-for-a-super-grand-solar-minimum-is-on-the-wall/ interesting to say the least.But Robert is always very interesting and a good read to follow.
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Robert Filex posted this just now on his blog site https://www.iceagenow.info/temperatures-now-lower-than-during-most-of-the-last-630-million-years/#more-29729 and also these very recently https://www.iceagenow.info/why-will-this-solar-minimum-be-different/ and plus this one https://www.iceagenow.info/the-handwriting-for-a-super-grand-solar-minimum-is-on-the-wall/ interesting to say the least.But Robert is always very interesting and a good read to follow.

Good share. Thank you.

 

I'll add, in my original post I (obviously) meant 2014, not 1014. Lol.

 

He takes that last one a smidge far, but you'd almost say he read my mind. It's so easy to see the truth if you look.

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Sorry to be gone so long.

Health stuff plus publishing a book has had its complications.

 

Anyway, this is an awesome article from 2013 on the coming cooling epoch.

Noted Russian solar scientist Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov wrote the article and good science knows no publishing date.

 

Check this out.

 

https://www.climatedepot.com/2013/12/04/new-paper-russian-solar-physicist-by-habibullo-abdussamatov-predicts-another-little-ice-age-within-the-next-30-years/

 

"The Sun is the main factor controlling the climatic system and even non-significant long-term TSI variations may have serious consequences for the climate of the Earth and other planets of the Solar system. Quasi-bicentennial solar cycles are the key to understanding cyclic changes in both the nature and the society. The sign and value of the energy imbalance in the Earth-atmosphere system over a long time span (excess of incoming TSI accumulated by the Ocean, or its deficiency) determine a corresponding change of the energy state of the system and, hence, a forthcoming climate variation and its amplitude. That is why the Earth’s climate will change every 200±70 years; and it is the result of bicentennial cyclic TSI variation."

 

attachicon.gifIMG_3962.JPG

 

Also Re: warming on Mars measured over a decade ago.

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20070306233723/http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0

 

Amazing how man caused CO2 on Earth is able to find it's way to Mars!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I posted this in the Solar thread, but readers will find this interesting here if they missed it. It's all connected.

 

https://watchers.news/2018/03/30/study-suggests-modern-grand-solar-minimum-in-2020-2053/

 

(Video accompanying)

 

"We verify the extrapolated activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries. We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053, which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity compared to MM. We argue that Sporer minimum (1450-1550) derived from the increased abundances of isotopes 14C and 10Be is likely produced by a strong increase of the terrestrial background radiation caused by the galactic cosmic rays of powerful supernovae."

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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In time, Felix will be exonerated. He's been tracking this trend for 20 yrs at least. People laughed at him. They said he was an extremist and a fringe climate nut. Well, don't look now, but the big guys in climate study have joined the conversation.

It's gonna get colder.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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  • 2 weeks later...

Just for fun, I thought it would be interesting to look at solar radiation reaching Earth. Axial tilt and Prescession contribute greatly.

Scroll through the pages and (re)familiarize yourself with the work of Milutin Milankovitch.

.

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Milankovitch

 

Milankovitch dedicated his career to developing a mathematical theory of climate based on the seasonal and latitudinal variations of solar radiation received by the Earth. Now known as the Milankovitch Theory, it states that as the Earth travels through space around the sun, cyclical variations in three elements of Earth-sun geometry combine to produce variations in the amount of solar energy that reaches Earth:

 

"Variations in the Earth's orbital eccentricity—the shape of the orbit around the sun.

Changes in obliquity—changes in the angle that Earth's axis makes with the plane of Earth's orbit.

Precession—the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation, i.e., the axis of rotation behaves like the spin axis of a top that is winding down; hence it traces a circle on the celestial sphere over a period of time"

 

"Using these three orbital variations, Milankovitch was able to formulate a comprehensive mathematical model that calculated latitudinal differences in insolation and the corresponding surface temperature for 600,000 years prior to the year 1800. He then attempted to correlate these changes with the growth and retreat of the Ice Ages. To do this, Milankovitch assumed that radiation changes in some latitudes and seasons are more important to ice sheet growth and decay than those in others. Then, at the suggestion of German Climatologist Vladimir Koppen, he chose summer insolation at 65 degrees North as the most important latitude and season to model, reasoning that great ice sheets grew near this latitude and that cooler summers might reduce summer snowmelt, leading to a positive annual snow budget and ice sheet growth."

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Paleoclimatology_Evidence

 

"Evidence supporting Milankovitch’s theory of the precise timing of the ice ages first came from a series of fossil coral reefs that formed on a shallow ocean bench in the South Pacific during warm interglacial periods. As the ice ages came, more and more water froze into polar ice caps and the ocean levels dropped, leaving the reef exposed. When the ice melted, the ocean rose and warmed, and another reef formed. At the same time, the peninsula on which the reefs formed was steadily being pushed up by the motion of the Earth’s shifting tectonic plates. Today, the reefs form a visible series of steps along the shore of Papua New Guinea. The reefs, the age of which was well-defined because of the decaying uranium in the coral, measured out the millennia between ice ages. They also defined the maximum length of each ice age. The intervals fell exactly where Milankovitch said they would."

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Interesting article today from the site SpaceWeather.com....you have to wonder if low solar is contributing to the crashing temps in the Stratosphere...

 

 

POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS: The Arctic season for polar stratospheric clouds has begun. "The rare clouds made their first appearance over Stockholm earlier this afternoon (Dec. 2nd) and shone brightly against the evening sky," reports photographer Peter Rosén, who had no trouble seeing the clouds from the brightly-lit downtown area of Stockholm:

 

psc3_strip.jpg

 

Polar stratospheric clouds are a sign that the Arctic stratosphere is getting cold. Very cold. They require temperatures around -85ºC to form.

 

The stratosphere is extremely dry, which makes it hard for clouds of any type to form. Only when the air up there becomes extremely cold do widely-spaced water molecules coalesce to form ice crystals--the "stuff" of PSCs. High-altitude sunlight shining through these ice particles produces the clouds' characteristic bright iridescent colors, as shown in this close-up from Peter Rosén:

psc2_strip.jpg

People who see them generally agree, they are the most beautiful clouds on Earth. "Polar stratospheric clouds far outshine and have much more vivid colours than ordinary iridescent clouds, which are very much poor relations and seen frequently all over the world," writes atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley. "Once seen they are never forgotten."

As the winter solstice approaches and plunges the northern stratosphere into deeper cold, these clouds will appear with increasing frequency. Arctic sky watchers, submit your photos here.

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Should look at the long range graph. We are far from any kind of discernable trend there. Maybe if we drop below -3 for the first time since the 1920's there could be something.

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The video taken close up is frightening. With upwards of 100 people on the island and 27 missing and 5 dead at this post. it's humbling that we are all at the mercy of forces of this planet which can be beyond our control and our ability to wrap our heads around quickly.

 

New Zealand is a very active set of islands. The northern island has many volcanos and active sites. I visited a number of years ago and I was amazed at how the landscape reflects this heritage of Volcanic activity. It is also subject to active faultlines, as we saw at the Christ Church earthquake a few years ago.

 

It will be interesting to see what new activity occurs in the area. This was said to be a release of gases not magma, but those affected don't care about that detail.

 

The SE Asia area has been very active with quakes between 4 and 5's lately and you can't help but wonder what's next?

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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From the above article. This says a lot. We're entering uncharted territory.

I have no idea what may happen, but no doubt we may find out.

 

"Dr. Ciaran Beggan, a geophysicist and geomagnetic specialist from the BGS, told FT that the movement of the pole has been “much faster” since the 1990s “than at any time for at least four centuries,” and that scientists “really don’t know much about the changes in the core that’s driving it.”

 

With the pole passing the Greenwich (prime) meridian and continuing its race east, humanity is entering the unknown, scientifically speaking."

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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  • 4 weeks later...

Mother Earth is suddenly becoming very active in terms of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. 

It is not unusual for activity to pick up in solar minimums and so we are right on track.

 

Volcanic Activity

 

In the Philippines Taal Volcano suddenly erupted and began to gush lava, ash, and steam 6 to 9 miles into the atmosphere.  Manila's Airport had to shut down and villagers evacuate. Authorities are warning that the activity is anything but over and the worse may be yet to come.  Authorities are warning of a hazardous explosive eruption.

 

In South America, Sabacaya volcano blasted a plume of ash 24,000 feet into the air. Bueno Aires warned of the ash plume that rose an estimated 24,000 feet.

 

Mt. Popocatepetl shot ash 4 miles into the air and spewed lava. The volcano is only 40 miles southeast of Mexico City and 26 million people.  In history, the volcano buried Aztec cities in super-heated mud and ash. Popo has been active since the 90's but it has been growing in activity.

 

In Alaska, Shishaldin Volcano roared to life with an initial blast of ash 19,000 feet. During the increase, the volcano spewed ash 25,000 feet high.  That's 5 miles.

 

Earthquakes

 

Puerto Rico has experienced over 1000 earthquakes. Three were over 5.0 with one of those over 6.0  Buildings have been collapsing and many residents have resorted to sleeping outdoors for fear of dying in the homes.

 

GSM's are known for increasing activity around the world and this minimum is no exception. 

These are only the major volcanos waking up.  There are many more that are active but not in a major way.  As I write this morning 17 volcanoes are listed as Active globally and 10 are listed under Warning.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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There are debates going around on the causes why we are not seeing the -nao dispite the low solar.My idea is it could well be that for one we been in a over all nino like regem the past few years but the qbo has been in bad phases in a nino your want to see a Eastestly Qbo for big negative nao winters because the qbo has been westerly along with the poSitive iod messing up the mjo we been sort of stuck in a rut of sorts.Another factor again debatable but this low phase solar cycle is coming after one of the strongest solar maximum cycles.with the releases of all the heat in the oceans it should not be a surpised that the cooling is slower to come on vers if we had a weak solar maximum cycle followed by this cycle the cooling likey would have been much faster.it will be very interesting to see where we go the next few years if the cooling starts to speed up Once the heat releases of the oceans is complete.ps I was looking back at Phils ice age thread from 2012 good times and memory's there for sure lol,

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  • 2 weeks later...

A rare 7.7 earthquake struck between Jamaica and Cuba on Jan. 28th. The quake was felt in southern Florida and buildings in Miami swayed terrifying residents.

A 7.6 hit Eastern Turkey last week with an enormous amount of damage to buildings. Many people were trapped in the rubble and numerous deaths reported.

 

The GSM expectation of increased quakes seems to be in play as the area near Cuba has been shaking and there has been and marked increase in Volcanic activity.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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A rare 7.7 earthquake struck between Jamaica and Cuba on Jan. 28th. The quake was felt in southern Florida and buildings in Miami swayed terrifying residents.

A 7.6 hit Eastern Turkey last week with an enormous amount of damage to buildings. Many people were trapped in the rubble and numerous deaths reported.

The GSM expectation of increased quakes seems to be in play as the area near Cuba has been shaking and there has been and marked increase in Volcanic activity.

It will be interesting if we see a temperture drop in global temperatures in the next few years once we get past the ocean warming releases.
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