August 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Grand Island just got hit with the best storm I've seen in the 3 years I've lived here. 80 mph winds that prompted the sirens to sound. This went on for a solid 30 minutes and there are trees uprooted all over the city. Power was out for 4 hours. I was awake when it came in around 2:30 AM and I honestly thought we were getting a Tornado when the sirens started going. It looked and sounded like it. I live in an apartment so this was extra nerve racking. I walked around and it looks like the storms I remember as a kid. It's been lame for years here but this one was a classic.

Not that I want to root for damage, but I'm glad you were able to score a solid severe storm this season.  You've been yearning for one for a long time.  It's good to hear your experience was worth the wait.

[Hawkeye]

I just watched the overnight radar loop from central Nebraska and that was a real whopper of a storm.  It looks like there was a nice hail core as well.

[OKwx2k4]

I win....

[Andie]

Ouch!

 

We have the same picture in Texas. One hot Mama !!!

 

Where's that early Fall? oh man.

[Niko]

Another beautiful day here in NYC w tons of sunshine. Some storms could popup later today and tanite. Temps will be in the upper 80s. Currently, temp is at 75F w sunshine and a tad humid.

[Stacsh]

Signs of torchiness mid-August showing up.  

[Tom]

Both Thursday & Friday mornings will have that Autumn "feel" across the Upper MW....very low DP's are in the forecast...

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Hvy downpour just came down. Really hvy! Temp now in Queens, NY is 81F. 

[Minny_Weather]

Not bad for early August. 84.7°F, DP 59°F. Isolated clouds.

[Andie]

Currently 102* feels like 112*

 

Thurs 102

Fri. 103

Sat. 104

Sun. 104

Mon. 104.

Ties. We may see 99

 

Yeah. Somebody give me some good news.

[clintbeed1993]

Not that I want to root for damage, but I'm glad you were able to score a solid severe storm this season.  You've been yearning for one for a long time.  It's good to hear your experience was worth the wait.

 

 

Yes it was definitely something I'll never forget. There was an 87 mph wind gust at the GI airport before power went out You just don't see this kind of power in non tornadic thunderstorms very often. Mother Nature is amazing.

[Tom]

I was awoken by that line of storms that raced south out of S WI and clipped NE IL.  Had some brief heavy rain (.36") and lightning/thunder along with somewhat strong winds from the outflows.  Much needed moisture for my lawn and plants before another drier period settles in. 

 

On a side note, what is becoming more noticeable, is when I get up around my usual time (5;:00am) each day is the darkness is holding on longer each and every day.  It was only a few weeks ago that by this time (5:23am) the sun would be rising.  I only see a glimmer of daylight emerging to my east at the moment.

[Tom]

I've been really enjoying the sunny stretch we've endured over the past several weeks and it will continue...

 

 

[Tom]

There's a battle brewing in the extended...Euro/JMA vs CFSv2...who wins???  Today's JMA weeklies have shifted the overall pattern in the extended into a warmer one, esp later in Week 2-4 which look similar to Monday's Euro Weeklies.  On the flip side, we have the CFSv2 painting a much different picture.  So, here we are, and take it FWIW...one thing is for certain, Autumn is ramping up into high gear across western/central Canada this month.  Look for large, wound up storms to start showing up on the models and some snow in the higher country of western Canada.  A big clue of the pattern going forward into Sept.

 

Week 2 temps/precip...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201908.D0712_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201908.D0712_gl0.png

 

 

 

Week 3-4 temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201908.D0712_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201908.D0712_gl0.png

[westMJim]

Just 0.24" of rain here last night. With cloudy skis the current temperature here at my house is 66.  Since June 21 a total of 48 days the coolest high here in Grand Rapids has been 78. 42 of the days have been 80 or better. The warmest high so far this summer has been 92.

[Stormy]

Time to celebrate...maybe? Nice little cell about to hit. The first two just grazed to my north and northeast.

[Stormy]

Time to celebrate...maybe? Nice little cell about to hit. The first two just grazed to my north and northeast.

Yay, it’s pouring at least for a little bit. What a surprise and there was no rain in today’s forecast this morning! The NWS even had to update their HWO.

My brother in laws place a half mile ne. got one half inch before I even had one tenth from 2 previous cells.

[Stormy]

This last TINY cell probably had the highest rain rate of all. Had strong half inch before this last downpour.

[Stormy]

Just thought I’ll share a few photos of the other storms that mostly missed.

 

The middle photo is looking east, and if you look closely you’ll notice my anemometer on that windmill just above the trees.

The other photos are looking wnw.

 

 

 

[james1976]

Glad you got some rain. DMX did mention yesterday pm disco that S IA would have a chance today.

[james1976]

Quite comfortable today. Currently 77 and no humidity.

[Stormy]

Glad you got some rain. DMX did mention yesterday pm disco that S IA would have a chance today.

Thank you!

I ended up with 0.71”. That last tiny cell dumped 0.20” in 4 minutes with maximum rainfall rate of just under 5” per hour briefly. My brother in law just across the field claims they got 1.20”.

 

For my location I can actually say it began raining in the first half of August, especially if we can get more next week, when it is looking a bit more active.

 

Back to sunshine and still warm and humid.

[Hawkeye]

Quite comfortable today. Currently 77 and no humidity.

 

The humidity has been slow to fall in central and southern Iowa today.  We started the day with a dew of 64 and it's still 62 at 2pm.  I was hoping for better.

[St Paul Storm]

77/46 under bright blue skies. Simply amazing today.

[james1976]

77/46 under bright blue skies. Simply amazing today.

That is a low DP for August!

[St Paul Storm]

I’ve only received 0.7” of rain so far this month. Today was the first time this summer that I noticed some browning of the grass. We might not see any precip for the next week plus either. Best chance is 40% on Saturday.

[St Paul Storm]

That is a low DP for August!

Very low for August. Humidity currently at 32%. Quite the change from the last few weeks. It hasn’t been terribly hot by any means. But the dew point has consistently been in the 60s and 70s.

[OKwx2k4]

77/46 under bright blue skies. Simply amazing today.

That's a win. Nice!

[Iowawx]

Desptite getting some decent rains on Monday ( I got 1.3"), we were not removed from the adnormaly dry area on the drought monitor. I thought we got enough to get us out of that, but I guess that we are still in it because the rainfall for July was well below normal.

 

The good news is that we look to get into somewhat of a more active pattern heading into next week. DVN mentioned that the set up is favorable for MCS's to move across the area, and also mentions stronger cold fronts as a possiblity. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Another warm, muggy, and dry day here. We've only had .04" of rain this month. Watered my lawn for the first time this summer this week as well. So far for the month we're running about 2 degrees above normal. Would love to see some severe storms as eastern Nebraska just seems to miss out on everything this season. All the rain has been west, north, or south of us for the last few weeks it seems. Last 3 weeks, my rain gauge has received only about .30" of rain.

[Stormy]

Another warm, muggy, and dry day here. We've only had .04" of rain this month. Watered my lawn for the first time this summer this week as well. So far for the month we're running about 2 degrees above normal. Would love to see some severe storms as eastern Nebraska just seems to miss out on everything this season. All the rain has been west, north, or south of us for the last few weeks it seems. Last 3 weeks, my rain gauge has received only about .30" of rain.

That’s no fun, especially being so close to a lot of action recently.

[Bryan1117]

Another warm, muggy, and dry day here. We've only had .04" of rain this month. Watered my lawn for the first time this summer this week as well. So far for the month we're running about 2 degrees above normal. Would love to see some severe storms as eastern Nebraska just seems to miss out on everything this season. All the rain has been west, north, or south of us for the last few weeks it seems. Last 3 weeks, my rain gauge has received only about .30" of rain.

We are officially in the abnormally dry category on the drought monitor. After an amazingly moist Winter and early Spring, it’s been very tough to get appreciable moisture around here.

 

It’s getting borderline ridiculous how we keep getting missed by 25-30 miles each direction. I haven’t seen more than one inch of rain during a singular event in my backyard since May, that’s pretty unusual around this area during the summer months.

[Minny_Weather]

We're "supposed" to get down to 54*F tonight, but with the humidity still in the air I heavily doubt that happens. 67.5*F.

[Tom]

Before I hit the sack last night, I opened up some windows and when I came downstairs it felt refreshing.  Another gorgeous "Summer Sunrise" earlier this morning with a very comfy Temp/DP of 58F/55F.  #TGIF

 

An interesting wx pattern is setting up early next week as models are suggesting a potent PAC wave coming off the Rockies and tracking up and over the central plains ridge, aka, the "Ring of Fire".  I like our chances up this way to benefit from this system and receive some decent storm chances and precip.  Most, if not, all global models are painting a corridor of 1-2"+ of rain from I-80 on north.

[OKwx2k4]

Went from hot and humid but dry to flooding risks today. Pretty drastic changes. I'd say the 46 day euro posted recently has already failed miserably.

 

When it's that wrong on d14, I have pretty low expectations of it holding at d40.

[Andie]

Well, we're sitting at hot, humid and miserable to extremely hot, blistering and dangerous.

 

It's looking like the weather is going to have some surprises up its sleeve.

[Niko]

Back in Mi

 

Currently at 72F w tons of sun. No rain in sight!

[OmahaSnowFan]

It's been crazy to see the change in the dewpoint here in Omaha. This morning it was a warm and comfortable with a dewpoint of only 58 at 1135a on my weather station. By 245 it rose to a dewpoint of 69. It's been sunny all day long, but the humidity has risen from 44% at 1135a to 57% at 245p. So far have hit a high of 87 with a heat index of 91.

One of the things I love about having a backyard weather station with a website/app where I can go online and look at all the data and the little changes in the atmosphere from minute to minute.

[Stormy]

I thought the latest DVN AFD was interesting.

 

LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

 

A warm up through Sunday will also carry an increasing threat for

shower and thunderstorms. Initially, there may be new convection

firing over the CWA Saturday night, in the decayed are of storms

which may be over the area. This is not a synoptically evident

feature, and will be a mesoscale process, thus it is handled with

low pops for now. Sunday this may continue to repeat, prior to a

consistently forecast wave of low pressure along the front Sunday

night through early Tuesday. This should drive a significant wave of

thunderstorms over the region, and is forecast by all guidance.

However, the placement is varied north and south. I do believe it

will traverse more east than northeast, given the zonal flow aloft

found in all model data. A northeasterly moving MCS is rare, and for

this, I believe the NAM and ECMWF have more skill than the GFS GEM.

In fact, the southern periphery of that MCS over our CWA is likely

stronger than indicated by models given the intense Midwest heat

dome just to the south. For that reason as well, a wind producing

MCS is possible.

 

Following the event Monday, dry air is expected to move back in for

Tuesday PM through Thursday, with high pressure. After that high

moves east, warm air is likely to arrive again late week, with

possible chances for storms as well.

 

DMX’s take....

 

LONG TERM.../Saturday night through Friday/

Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

 

Confidence: Medium

 

Another challenging period early on in the extended, with another

MCS expected to track more into Iowa than tomorrow's MCS. The

upper level ridge will flatten slightly by Sunday night and this

should allow for a more southerly placement of the expected system

and associated MCS. That being said, the models still have

varying solutions. The one constant in all three NAM/GFS/Euro is

the possibility of heavy rainfall. With the pooling of higher

moisture to our south/west remaining over the region through

Monday, forecast PWATs again increase to 2 to 2.5 inches late

Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Also quite impressive are the

GFS forecast warm cloud depths of over 5000m for Monday. Current

confidence on the placement of the mesoscale system (MCS) is still

somewhat low, so refinements in rainfall placement/amounts and

timing will be needed into the weekend forecast. As for severe

weather chances, shear and instability parameters suggest the

potential for wind gusts with the passage of the system Monday.

At this time, despite a potential for locally heavy rainfall in

the range of 2 to 4-5 inch amounts, hydro issues should mainly be

limited to urban runoff, due to the rather dry conditions in place

for the past few weeks. If a few locations receive heavy rainfall

tomorrow afternoon and evening or the MCS tracks slowly over the

region Monday, an increase in hydro issues will need to be

addressed in later forecasts. After warm days over the south

Sunday and Monday in the 80s to lower 90s, a return to drier and

cooler weather will occur from Tuesday through Wednesday across

the entire forecast area. Warmer and more active conditions are

expected toward next weekend as highs build back toward the 90s.

[OKwx2k4]

According to Barron's, USDA is doing a resurvey of corn. Largely due to discrepancy in reporting and a wide range of forecasts for yield.

 

If you didn't invest in those futures 2 months ago, you missed on an opportunity to gain 20% on your money. Possibly more with an early frost/freeze or any other adverse conditions to come.

 

Stay tuned.... Revised report comes Monday.