August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

I’m beginning to get the feeling we’re living in a warming climate.

 

It's funny because it's actually really obvious that our climate has been warming for a long time! LOL!

[Deweydog]

It's funny because it's actually really obvious that our climate has been warming for a long time! LOL!

It’s about to stop though...

[Jesse]

0.36", to be exact! Yeah, it's been dry.*

 

* Stay tuned for pages upon pages of maps, charts, graphs, and tables in support of this contention.

That’s even better than I thought. I just looked at the six hour total and missed the .10” that fell before that.

[Omegaraptor]

It’s about to stop though...

1945-1977!

 

1880-1915!

 

#ItsAllCyclical

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It’s about to stop though...

1945-1977!

 

1880-1915!

 

#ItsAllCyclical

Get ready!

 

[Omegaraptor]

Get ready!

Both of those periods were the result of a glacial extension causing a cool period.

 

However 1880-1915 also came with a mini grand solar minimum as well (3 cycles of well below normal activity) which made it a chilly period for the Northern Hemisphere overall. The legendary winter of 1892-93 put 1949-50 to shame.

[Phil]

[Phil]

I’m beginning to get the feeling we’re living in a warming climate.

Sounds like a personal issue.

[Deweydog]

Yet another GFS run showing a cool down after the warm up...

[Front Ranger]

It did actually used to happen on occasion. Pretty easy to see the distinction between something like August 1968 and what would be possible in the current climate.

 

Not sure why a warming climate would prevent rain totals like that.

 

Sep 2013 is PDX's wettest on record, and Jun 2012 is second wettest on record. Heavy warm season rain can still happen, just hasn't been supported by warm season patterns since then.

 

Fun fact: 2019 has seen the first back to back wetter than normal July and August at PDX since 1995.

[Front Ranger]

Get ready!

 

 

It was supposed to be the 2020s a few years ago...  <_>

[Jesse]

Get ready!

 

That’s the cover photo from Phil’s phacebook page!

[TT-SEA]

It was supposed to be the 2020s a few years ago... <_>

At one point it was 2017.

[Front Ranger]

At one point it was 2017.

1/10/17.

[BLI snowman]

Not sure why a warming climate would prevent rain totals like that.

 

Sep 2013 is PDX's wettest on record, and Jun 2012 is second wettest on record. Heavy warm season rain can still happen, just hasn't been supported by warm season patterns since then.

 

Fun fact: 2019 has seen the first back to back wetter than normal July and August at PDX since 1995.

 

Nah, the expanded midsummer Western high pressure of today pretty safely corresponds with fewer rain opportunities than before in that stretch of calendar. The fringes of the warm season during wavelength change season are a bit of a different animal, as large scale pattern drivers can still produce some variance as we saw earlier this decade when the Pacific wasn't yet an inferno. 

 

PDX was also just in the perfect location for a few of the showers this summer. It's been drier than average just up the road.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1/10/17.

Add to that what occurred this past winter and I think we're on our way to colder and snowier winters. Going to need to see some follow though through this next decade. The stage is set with this solar minimum.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got up into the upper 80s early this afternoon but it’s dropped into the upper 70s now. Breeze came through temps dropped and got about 0.02” of rain here so far. Was breezy for only about an hour, totally calm and cloudy now with some sprinkles.

[Jesse]

Add to that what occurred this past winter and I think we're on our way to colder and snowier winters. Going to need to see some follow though through this next decade. The stage is set with this solar minimum.

Hotter summers and colder winters ahead! Just like we had in the 1950s and 1890s! (minus the hot summer part, summers were actually way cooler then)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Very nice rain for a while.  It's stopped currently but maybe we can get a little more in showers?

[High Desert Mat?]

Got a very nice steady light rain for about 4 hours today. Picked up .30 in the bucket. Not bad for August in central Oregon without a t-storm.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like we picked up 0.15” back at home. Up to 0.77” for August. Up to 1.93” for the meteorological summer. Good chance this will be it until September in Tacoma unless the rain on the 18z gfs for the 31st pans out.

[Deweydog]

REAL rain drops!!!

[Perturbed Member]

Just logging in to b*tch about the bust. I just briefly glanced at the GFS text output yesterday and saw at least 0.20 in QPF for PDX, didn't look at anything else feeling fairly confident that there is no way this will be way off in the ultra short range. Pretty annoying to see the front split up and shaft SW WA and NW OR like that. Could be worse I suppose, imagine if this was supposed to be a snow maker. Would probably result in even more protests in downtown Portland by marauding weather nerds. 

 

 

Washington County donut hole yet again. Is this ever a surprise?

 

I know my feeling about this is probably a bit irrational and maybe not entirely consistent with the evidence, but I feel like WA county has been getting screwed left and right with subpar precip in recent years. 

[Requiem]

Looks like CPC has us under a high risk of extreme heat for late-August into early September.

[Front Ranger]

Nah, the expanded midsummer Western high pressure of today pretty safely corresponds with fewer rain opportunities than before in that stretch of calendar. The fringes of the warm season during wavelength change season are a bit of a different animal, as large scale pattern drivers can still produce some variance as we saw earlier this decade when the Pacific wasn't yet an inferno.

 

PDX was also just in the perfect location for a few of the showers this summer. It's been drier than average just up the road.

This, from the guy who ruled out a Dec 2008 happening in the modern climate...in early 2008.

[Deweydog]

Delayed but not denied!!!

 

My drought-fueled tantrum while in line at Baja Fresh worked!

[Jesse]

This, from the guy who ruled out a Dec 2008 happening in the modern climate...in early 2008.

I don’t see the value in resorting to ad hominem here. What he said seemed pretty reasonable, accurate.

[Front Ranger]

I don’t see the value in resorting to ad hominem here. What he said seemed pretty reasonable, accurate.

It's not ad hominem. It's an example of him making a similar "can't happen in the modern climate" statement that was quickly proven wrong.

[TT-SEA]

This, from the guy who ruled out a Dec 2008 happening in the modern climate...in early 2008.

He also mocked me last January for saying that cold and snow were coming. ENSO dictated that winter was over. Period.

 

And there was no way this July and August could end wetter than normal.

 

He has incredible knowledge of local weather history... but I think that also gets in his way.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

71F and some puddles from our nice little event.

[Front Ranger]

He also mocked me last January for saying that cold and snow were coming. ENSO dictated that winter was over. Period.

 

And there was no way this July and August could end wetter than normal.

 

He has incredible knowledge of local weather history... but I think that also gets in his way.

I think it's safe to say at this point that Mother Nature really enjoys proving Justin wrong.

[Dave]

We've lost 4 WR and a tight end to injuries. At least Auburn is starting a true frosh QB.

 

I peed in one of those puddles.

[SouthHillFrosty]

What’s a good camping place for labor weekend?

[Jesse]

It's not ad hominem. It's an example of him making a similar "can't happen in the modern climate" statement that was quickly proven wrong.

Seemed like his post was more about explaining recent tendencies than about ruling out any particular stand alone weather event entirely.

 

It’s whatever though. Seems like you have just been looking for fights here the last week or so. Tried with me a few times, then Tim, now Justin.

[Requiem]

What’s a good camping place for labor weekend?

Ecola State Park is gorgeous, and you can camp nearby. Stunning views, and if the forecasts are right a refuge from the heat.

[El_Nina]

Most substantial rain of the day falling now.

[Jesse]

We’ve been in a good spot out here on the east side of Vancouver today. Approaching .20” now with some moderate rain at times. It’s been at very least lightly raining or drizzling much of the last five hours.

[Jesse]

PDX up to .12”

 

Puts them over an inch for August.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ecola State Park is gorgeous, and you can camp nearby. Stunning views, and if the forecasts are right a refuge from the heat.

thanks man

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What’s a good camping place for labor weekend?

I'm heading down to Harris Beach State Park down in Brookings for Labor Day Weekend. Never been there but friends say it's absolutely gorgeous down there.