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August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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It's kinda seeming like your area isn't doing great in our new climate regime. A lot less winter snow, much hotter, much more prone to drought and also a drop in summer convection.

An elder was just telling me not long ago how when she was younger, she would have trouble seeing past the snow banks at intersections just to turn there in Klamath Falls. Says that was a normal winter phenomena.

 

Don't think there's a "drop" in convection. If I hadn't failed to video my last event on 08/10 you'd think otherwise. Also two years ago I took one of my best youtube videos during that season.

 

In terms of supercells, maybe a little drop since the 90's but look at my vicinity severe t'storm list, the area still sees a lot. Folks in Keno and in Bonanza have likely experienced lots of crop damage due to hailstorms over the last several years since I have been here. Sometimes it seems like downtown K-Falls is in a pocket less probable to be slammed by that sort of storm lately.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It's kinda seeming like your area isn't doing great in our new climate regime. A lot less winter snow, much hotter, much more prone to drought and also a drop in summer convection.

An elder was just telling me not long ago how when she was younger, she would have trouble seeing past the snow banks at intersections just to turn there in Klamath Falls. Says that was a normal winter phenomena.

 

Snow can be debatable in the cascades last decade or so. Let's not forget winters like '15-'16 where Crater Lake NP broke their December snowfall record during that one or my Jan 4 2017 storm that dumped probably as much snow as the 1993 storm in January many people here do talk about. 

 

If we're speaking purely frequency, maybe, just maybe it's not as common but impressive snows can indeed still happen.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Snow can be debatable in the cascades last decade or so. Let's not forget winters like '15-'16 where Crater Lake NP broke their December snowfall record during that one or my Jan 4 2017 storm that dumped probably as much snow as the 1993 storm in January many people here do talk about.

 

If we're speaking purely frequency, maybe, just maybe it's not as common but impressive snows can indeed still happen.

The frequency, duration, and amount of snow is dropping overall as time goes on. Seems the same is happening with convection. But as I am typing this, it seems that this is the reality of everywhere.
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Still 66F here as well. Clouds around.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The frequency, duration, and amount of snow is dropping overall as time goes on. Seems the same is happening with convection. But as I am typing this, it seems that this is the reality of everywhere.

 

Yeah, there has been a lessening average of severe weather events in southern Oregon, I'm sure I'm not the only one who has noticed this.

I would like to believe it's a phase and this will come back soon. 

 

One of the best GIF's somebody could have on their profile did come from one of my recent videos so it gives me hope  :P

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Yeah, there has been a lessening average of severe weather events in southern Oregon, I'm sure I'm not the only one who has noticed this.

I would like to believe it's a phase and this will come back soon.

 

One of the best GIF's somebody could have on their profile did come from one of my recent videos so it gives me hope :P

That is true it is a cool GIF.

And I've always had the hope too that despite the warming trend, maybe it'll reverse one day. This year hasn't been so hot yet.

It's just started to rain.

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Lots of frequent lightning to my north for the past 40 minutes now at least. It can't be too close since I can barely hear it but some impressive lightning and plenty of cloud to ground stuff going on too. Although it isn't close to me, this is a much more impressive display than any of the other thunderstorms I had this summer or the last. Being at night also makes the light show more dramatic of course. 

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Lots of lightning to the south- was woken up by some loud thunder earlier.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Seeing quite a few flashes, but not much thunder yet.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Quite the sunrise this morning! Radar looks pretty active, some decent cells on radar about to move through. Not expecting a lot of rain, looks like it didn’t amount to much in NW OR and SW WA.

D59583DE-DD2C-4062-90CC-BCB57C60BDF2.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Quite the sunrise this morning! Radar looks pretty active, some decent cells on radar about to move through. Not expecting a lot of rain, looks like it didn’t amount to much in NW OR and SW WA.

Models show initial band falling apart and then a stronger band develops this afternoon and pushes all the way through the Seattle area this evening.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Models show initial band falling apart and then a stronger band develops this afternoon and pushes all the way through the Seattle area this evening.

probably will start fizzling after it passes to the north of here or just before. I wasn’t paying attention to the models close enough apparently, was not anticipating any rain chances this AM only PM.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Nothing exciting here.  Some brief showers but that's it as far as I know.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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New update on Hurricane Dorian.

 

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue

 

UPDATE: National Hurricane Center now forecasts Hurricane #Dorian to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane on its approach to Florida on Monday. Still considerable uncertainty about where along (and if) Dorian will make landfall ... average solution is Melbourne.

 

g7Es7YY.png

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167087358610681856

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Driving to work from Ridgefield to Beaverton around 5am was incredible. Lightning in every direction. It was pretty distracting but incredible.

 

Best nocturnal display I've seen since I've been in my current location (4 years).

 

Picked up about .15" of precip so far, convective models show one more round developing soon.

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Definitely felt the earthquake. 6.4 MMS 170 miles off the coast of Bandon.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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New update on Hurricane Dorian.

 

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue

 

UPDATE: National Hurricane Center now forecasts Hurricane #Dorian to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane on its approach to Florida on Monday. Still considerable uncertainty about where along (and if) Dorian will make landfall ... average solution is Melbourne.

 

g7Es7YY.png

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167087358610681856

I still have a hunch he’s gonna make the north turn before FL..been running well north of guidance since formation and despite a stronger storm tapping into upper level steering which would be more zonal than poleward, that weakness between the anticyclones (with the one over the intermountain west becoming dominant) looks like a decent roadmap to me.

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Wow, I'm suppose to go camping on the Southern Oregon Coast in a few days for Labor Day weekend. This is way too close for comfort.

Big earthquakes like this happen every few months or one a year on the subduction zone. Pretty active fault line but mostly isn’t notable just light shaking on the coast.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Still fighting dry air in the mid levels. But the new hot towers going up outside the typical diurnal maximum period are likely indicative of upcoming strengthening as pressure has continued to drop.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso2&product=ir

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Definitely felt the earthquake. 6.4 MMS 170 miles off the coast of Bandon.

 

Don't tell me you still haven't had a t'storm since Aug 2006.  :P

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Don't tell me you still haven't had a t'storm since Aug 2006.  :P

 

I have, just haven't seen a bolt of lightning since then.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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I still have a hunch he’s gonna make the north turn before FL..been running well north of guidance since formation and despite a stronger storm tapping into upper level steering which would be more zonal than poleward, that weakness between the anticyclones (with the one over the intermountain west becoming dominant) looks like a decent roadmap to me.

Yeah, I don't think it's headed into the Gulf of Mexico. Will curve north, just a matter if it makes it's way into Florida.

 

FWIW, here is what Joe Bastardi is thinking. Would not be a good track for those living on the east coast of FL. Still possibly a hurricane as it heads into SE Georgia.

 

2XN4jOg.png

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1167108877898436614

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