TT-SEA Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 And least smoky. Indeed... almost no smoke. Probably not normal either. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 This goes to show that ground zero in the model world 5 days out rarely ends up being reality. We have seen that so many times with snowstorms here! I'm just thankful Puerto Rico didn't get hit after the fiasco that ensued after their last one. They totally mishandled the aid we sent them and blamed it on Trump.No politics, please Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted August 31, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Indeed... almost no smoke. Probably not normal either. Not sure about PNW... but it was the least active wildfire season in CA since 1998. Not over yet though. https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/08/23/why-california-is-having-its-mildest-fire-season-in-20-years/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Not sure about PNW... but it was the least active wildfire season in CA since 1998. Not over yet though. https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/08/23/why-california-is-having-its-mildest-fire-season-in-20-years/ Yeah... fires and smoke are a natural part of the warm season in western North America since long before humans arrived. To have almost no smoke is a rare treat but certainly not normal or to be expected every summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 No politics, please Sorry, but that whole situation just galls me. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Sorry, but that whole situation just galls me. There are lots of things on both sides that gall me. If you were being honest and calling it fairly... you would say the same thing about Trump's behavior. Stupidity abounds. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Sorry, but that whole situation just galls me.Yeah, there are certainly things out there that I’d love to rant about. Guess it’s just human nature. But I shy away from it these days because it’s almost ruined a few good friendships. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 https://media1.tenor.com/images/91a25dd815a14270b8466cbfcd1d2578/tenor.gif?itemid=12513617 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 There are lots of things on both sides that gall me. If you were being honest and calling it fairly... you would say the same thing about Trump's behavior. Stupidity abounds. Yep! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 What a waste of a hurricane.Trended too far east. Thanks a lot Phil.Not a total waste. Hurricanes are quite beneficial for our environment. Even more so when it just tracks over the ocean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Just got back from camping below the sourdough gap near chinook pass last night. Real cold last night with clear skies at 6000’. Was really good visibility this morning on the way out and at sunset last night. Could see St. Helens, Adams and even the top of Mt. Hood to the south this AM. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 https://media1.tenor.com/images/91a25dd815a14270b8466cbfcd1d2578/tenor.gif?itemid=12513617 Pretty bad fail on the catch attempt there. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Clowney and Ansah for our de’s with our linebacker core? Best front 7 in the game hands down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Clowney and Ansah for our de’s with our linebacker core? Best front 7 in the game hands down. Texans are going to be hot garbage for years now. They made an even dumber trade earlier trading 2 first round picks to the Dolphins for players worth a 3rd round pick each lol. Seahawks front should be great as long as Clowney and Ansah actually stay healthy, both have injury history. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Nice day. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Oh my. after all the media hype you may end up proven right about the coaster skimmer idea if so fantastic call Phil when most everyone was calling this a Florida hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted September 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Looks like our first shot of fall weather is in the 8-10 day range. Ensemble support has increased from 12z to 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Trended too far east. Thanks a lot Phil. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Unflagged sonde reports a 153kt wind just 6mb above the surface. That’s almost 180mph. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Hopefully people in Florida aren’t letting their guard down. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 after all the media hype you may end up proven right about the coaster skimmer idea if so fantastic call Phil when most everyone was calling this a Florida hit.Ha, we’ll see. It’s early..the pattern is such that it could easily wander about, miss the fetch, and plow into the outer banks/delmarva. Not much support on guidance right now but just few tiny tweaks would turn this into a nightmare for a lot of people that aren’t expecting anything right now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Well August is over basically. Monthly rain total 1.57”, 75/57 average, 7 80+ days, 0 85+ days. High temp of 76 today, had a little shower pass through earlier as well today. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted September 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Well August is over basically. Monthly rain total 1.57”, 75/57 average, 7 80+ days, 0 85+ days. High temp of 76 today, had a little shower pass through earlier as well today.Yeah certainly a wet August. If the rain event on 8/21 had hit as per the models, it would have been the wettest since 2004. After the last two bone dry summers it’s kinda weird to see 1.57” fall in Tacoma. I’ll calculate the average temps for PDX and HIO later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Ha, we’ll see. It’s early..the pattern is such that it could easily wander about, miss the fetch, and plow into the outer banks/delmarva. Not much support on guidance right now but just few tiny tweaks would turn this into a nightmare for a lot of people that aren’t expecting anything right now. exackly these sort of patterns are the most challenging to pin down which is why no one can put there guards down because these things can throw a real cerve ball.alot of times its the small factors that ultimately become the big determination of the whole track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Yeah certainly a wet August. If the rain event on 8/21 had hit as per the models, it would have been the wettest since 2004. After the last two bone dry summers it’s kinda weird to see 1.57” fall in Tacoma. I’ll calculate the average temps for PDX and HIO later.Wasn't exactly a wet month for the region. Wetter than normal some areas, drier than normal others. Tacoma was one of the wetter spots. Most of the area between Eugene and Portland was dry, as well as areas north of Seattle. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Woah. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Wasn't exactly a wet month for the region. Wetter than normal some areas, drier than normal others. Tacoma was one of the wetter spots. Most of the area between Eugene and Portland was dry, as well as areas north of Seattle. MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png makes up for this spring when the south sound was constantly rain shadowed. Recent rain in the area has helped out the balance a bit I guess. We had 1.44” of rain in March, but 1.57” in August lol. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Wasn't exactly a wet month for the region. Wetter than normal some areas, drier than normal others. Tacoma was one of the wetter spots. Most of the area between Eugene and Portland was dry, as well as areas north of Seattle. MonthPNormWRCC-NW.pngLots of purple. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 makes up for this spring when the south sound was constantly rain shadowed. Recent rain in the area has helped out the balance a bit I guess. We had 1.44” of rain in March, but 1.57” in August lol.I imagine only a handful of years have accomplished a drier March than August. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 I imagine only a handful of years have accomplished a drier March than August. The Cedar Lake station near me almost had a wetter August than March as well. And March averages 4 times as much rain as August. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 March was much drier than August here and August was still drier than normal, though just barely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Woah. Thank God it looks like Dorian will recurve out to sea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Thank God it looks like Dorian will recurve out to sea. There might not be anything left of the Bahamas by time that happens. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 I imagine only a handful of years have accomplished a drier March than August. Id have to go back and look but it wouldn’t surprise me if it hasn’t happened at all or only a couple times. Last few months have had interesting precip totals since March. MAR 1.44” APR 2.29” MAY 0.52” JUN 0.17” JUL 0.99” AUG 1.57”. Uncommon spread. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Uh, guys... @MJVentrice14m14 minutes ago Here's the latest from our 18Z #IBM MPAS run. Despite the ECMWF(euro) offshore trend over the past 24 hours, our MPAS model stalls Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast for a few hours and slowly brings it onshore. [link to twitter.com (secure)] (I copied and pasted) Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Should be a Cat5 by the 11pm update. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Uh, guys... @MJVentrice14m14 minutes ago Here's the latest from our 18Z #IBM MPAS run. Despite the ECMWF(euro) offshore trend over the past 24 hours, our MPAS model stalls Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast for a few hours and slowly brings it onshore. [link to twitter.com (secure)] (I copied and pasted)Florida landfall still seems quite possible to me. Steering causing the N and E turn looks pretty weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Should be a Cat5 by the 11pm update.Steady at 150mph. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Steady at 150mph. 135 to 144. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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