August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 12z ECMWF is really putting the kibosh on any sustained heat.

Its inevitable this year... the models always back off.

[Requiem]

Its inevitable this year... the models always back off.

I call it “PDX snow syndrome”- the models always showing something, but as we get closer in time removing it or knocking it down to almost nothing.

[jcmcgaffey]

There will be 5” of rain in your neighborhood while the rest of the region will be strangely dry.

again?!

[TT-SEA]

The moderated ECMWF solution would set us up nicely for the holiday weekend though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 12z ECMWF is really putting the kibosh on any sustained heat.

 

Praise the ancestors!

[Kayla]

Praise the ancestors!

 

It gets there in the end but the consistent delay makes it feel like this is just another 2019 summer mirage.

[MossMan]

I'll smoke 2-3 cigars a year, but never a cigarette.

 

With pot I only smoke it, I hate vaping, and always overdo it with edibles.

Edible Whoppers! It is very easy to overdo them however like you say.

[Phil]

It gets there in the end but the consistent delay makes it feel like this is just another 2019 summer mirage.

Shocker..

[Front Ranger]

Edible Whoppers! It is very easy to overdo them however like you say.

The only bad highs I've ever had came from edibles. Like most people.

[Deweydog]

The only bad highs I've ever had came from edibles. Like most people.

Apparently you hadn’t been appropriately warned about Haribo gummies.

[Jesse]

Shocker..

Weren’t you calling for a ridgy autumn?

[Deweydog]

It’s August 22nd.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I rarely feel much from edibles. I use them before a plane ride but that’s about it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Surprised nobody has been talking about the fires in the Amazon here. Looks like the lungs of the earth are gonna start looking like Tiger's and I's pretty soon.

Looks really bad. Saw this tweet from Ryan.

 

Ryan @RyanMaue

 

Climate change is NOT the cause of the fires. However, the negative effects of the rain forests burning will have regional & global impacts upon the climate going forward.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1164591916786356225

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I rarely feel much from edibles. I use them before a plane ride but that’s about it.

 

Do you ever try to take weed through security?

[Jesse]

It’s August 22nd.

Just nine days to go. Euro range!!

[El_Nina]

I rarely feel much from edibles. I use them before a plane ride but that’s about it.

They don't really do much to me either.

[TT-SEA]

This should put the summer cloudier/rainier/etc. discussion to bed once and for all.

 

Although, it doesn't totally align with what I've been saying soo... FAKE NEWS.

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/this-summer-seeming-too-wet-and-gloomy-youre-all-spoiled

This summer been pretty normal overall.

 

The mid-June to mid-July period was much cloudier than normal out here... with many days in that period not clearing at all and sometimes actually getting darker in the afternoon. But even just 4 or 5 more days with partial afternoon sun in that month-long timeframe would have made it a much more typical cloudy period.

 

The amount of sun and rain and cloudy periods since the middle of July has been much more typical of summer as well. And the first half of June was quite sunny and dry. So it averages out to around normal.

 

The nights have been generally warmer than normal... and the high temp departures have been a little below normal. Again... fairly close to averaging out.

 

Here is the overall temperature departure for the last 60 days:

 

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah normal summer temp-wise if not a bit warmer than normal, even discounting nights. Definitely not a 2011, 2010, etc.

 

The rain distribution was really good this summer leading to almost no wildfires. I’m currently in Ashland, it’s August 22, and the sky is clear and blue with no smoke. Not a frequent occurrence in the last several years.

 

(I did see burned trees by Milepost 97, however.)

 

Really good summer overall, and I really shouldn’t have complained about the cool early July.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS:

 

5-10 day period:

 

 

 

10-15 day period:

 

 

 

Obviously the EPS has been over-promising warmth all summer... but the signal is stronger and more persistent this time.   Hopefully this means we at least get an extended period of generally sunny, pleasant weather.     But I doubt there will be an sustained heat given the model tendencies this year to back off as the time approaches.

[Front Ranger]

I rarely feel much from edibles. I use them before a plane ride but that’s about it.

 

You have to snort them for full effect.

[Front Ranger]

This summer been pretty normal overall.

 

The mid-June to mid-July period was much cloudier than normal out here... with many days in that period not clearing at all and sometimes actually getting darker in the afternoon. But even just 4 or 5 more days with partial afternoon sun in that month-long timeframe would have made it a much more typical cloudy period.

 

The amount of sun and rain and cloudy periods since the middle of July has been much more typical of summer as well. And the first half of June was quite sunny and dry. So it averages out to around normal.

 

The nights have been generally warmer than normal... and the high temp departures have been a little below normal. Again... fairly close to averaging out.

 

Here is the overall temperature departure for the last 60 days:

 

 

Not for meteorological summer. They've averaged a little above for most areas...the 60 day map doesn't capture it because it starts on 6/24. But the 90 day does.

 

 

Even OLM is running over +1 for average high anomaly this summer.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Do you ever try to take weed through security?

 

Edibles sometimes but that's it.  Too risky, even travelling to other west coast states.

[Jesse]

They don't really do much to me either.

The key is having them right before a meal.

[Jesse]

Low 70s with afternoon sunshine, some puffy clouds and a cool NW breeze this afternoon. A nice little September preview.

 

With clearing tonight I could fall below 50 for the first time since mid-July.

[Deweydog]

Backdoor action on the 18z!!!

 

Edible for some folks, but I’m not into that...

[TT-SEA]

Day started out here with thick low clouds and drizzle that lasted most of the morning... but now its mostly sunny and pleasant.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

75F, clear and sunny in downtown Springfield.  Can take the kiddos to the park tonight.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny here again today. Low 70s. Nice day.

[El_Nina]

The key is having them right before a meal.

I've tried everything. Even put straight cannabutter into my coffee on an empty stomach in the morning. Just makes me tired.

[Deweydog]

Suppository?

[Phil]

Weren’t you calling for a ridgy autumn?

Is it autumn yet?

 

FWIW I believe I said I’m leaning drier than average, not necessarily “ridgy”. Though it might turn out that way.

[jakeinthevalley]

Suppository?

After a butt chug

[TacomaWaWx]

Beautiful sunny day here in NE WA. Looks like it got up to 68 degrees today back at home. Should be hot by the time I start headed home as well in Tacoma.

[Phil]

This should put the summer cloudier/rainier/etc. discussion to bed once and for all.

 

Although, it doesn't totally align with what I've been saying soo... FAKE NEWS.

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/this-summer-seeming-too-wet-and-gloomy-youre-all-spoiled

[Jesse]

Is it autumn yet?

 

FWIW I believe I said I’m leaning dry, not necessarily “ridgy”. Though it might turn out that way.

Figure we’re getting close enough to wavelength change time that some early autumn pattern tendencies may be starting to show their hand soon.

 

I’ve been expecting for things to flip hotter (or at least ridgier) late August into September for awhile now.

[MossMan]

Beautiful sunny day here in NE WA. Looks like it got up to 68 degrees today back at home. Should be hot by the time I start headed home as well in Tacoma.

You over hanging out with Snowmizer?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I've tried everything. Even put straight cannabutter into my coffee on an empty stomach in the morning. Just makes me tired.

That sounds delicious. Do you make your own?

[Phil]

Figure we’re getting close enough to wavelength change time that some early autumn pattern tendencies may be starting to show their hand soon.

 

I’ve been expecting for things to flip hotter (or at least ridgier) late August into September for awhile now.

Seems that would be favored this autumn with subsidence likely dominating the E-IO/Indo-Pacific.

[Jesse]

Seems that would be favored this autumn with subsidence likely dominating the E-IO/Indo-Pacific.

So I guess the answer to my original post could have just been yes.