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August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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I’ll throw 13-14 out there too. Great winter down this way. All time record low tied at -10F after several inches of snow in early Dec, then a Willamette Valley special in early Feb.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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66F and clear. Stars are beautiful again. Was another picture perfect summer day.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Totally agree with Cliff on this one.

 

Severe drought is just a stupid classification for the current situation.  

 

Current streamflow?  Most sites are near normal  

 

Wildfires are below normal across the State this year, as is smoke. 

 

What about water resources?  All the major urban areas have plenty of water, without any drought restrictions.  Seattle's reservoirs are slightly below normal, with no water issues

 

The origin of the drought declaration is from the relatively dry winter we had last year.  Southeast Washington was wetter than normal, but the coastal zone and the western Cascade slopes were drier than normal.   But having a location that normally gets 100 inches a year, now receive 80 inches, is a far cry from a severe drought and the impacts are very modest at best.  

 

80% of normal precipitation does not represent an extreme drought and has occurred many times during the past 50 years.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I’ll throw 13-14 out there too. Great winter down this way. All time record low tied at -10F after several inches of snow in early Dec, then a Willamette Valley special in early Feb.

If only we could have gotten some snow up here with the December Arctic Blast. Then it would be up there with 16-17 and 08-09 for me.

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Got down to 63 here and 58 back at home. Cloudy here in NE WA as well. First 3 days I was here it was pretty hot out and sunny but since Wednesday, temps have been cooler down to the mid 80s and more clouds. Been breezy on the lake as well out of the south, making boating pretty interesting with choppy water.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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OT, but does anyone else have snakes? I've got at least 10 living under my patio. Here's a few of them chilling together from a couple of days ago.

Yep, lol. Snakes, lizards, dragonflies, and cicadas all having their annual end-of-summer orgy.

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Check this out!  Major cooling along the West Coast while the warmest SST anoms are pushing further offshore.  Not surprisng when you consider the much higher surface pressure that has developed over the NE Pacific in recent days.  I like the prospects for farily chilly weather (in relation to normal) in the near future.

 

 

post-222-0-13706100-1566659715_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Jaws music time?

 

As Flatiron pointed out, hurricanes seem to love Republican presidents. It’ll probably find a way. ☹️

 

KjCviSQ.jpg

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Jaws music time?

 

As Flatiron pointed out, hurricanes seem to love Republican presidents. It’ll probably find a way. ☹️

 

KjCviSQ.jpg

 

It's been an incredibly quiet season so far so it would be surprising if one doesn't get going very soon.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No matter how you slice it we have a highly elevated chance of seeing a decent winter this year.  Just based on solar alone we are in fantastic company.  Now that ENSO has come around and the warm water over the NE Pacific has begun to shift westward we're in great shape.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Based on small scale fluctuations in NPAC SSTs?

 

Those cold, extratropical SSTs do tell us something about the low frequency (long term) behavior of the system, but there is zero evidence that they can force the pattern/wavetrain behavior to any measurable degree.

 

The North Pacific still retains the look set by the low pass mode of circulation. But remember that, as latitude increases, the importance of these SST anomalies (as far as their ability to couple to/influence the troposphere) generally decreases.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

The warm subtropical North Pacific (+PMM) is an important, coupled system component, through which the PDO/PNA system can arise, and of course, the tightness of the latitudinal SST gradient can be important over particular latitudes and timeframes, but in general the SSTAs themselves hold less importance as you go poleward.

 

I think the warm SST anoms right along the coast have played a role in the warm minimum temps we have seen this summer.  During onshore flow periods the high SSTs result in higher dew points.  I guess my point is the recent shift from low pressure off the West Coast to high pressure will eventually result in cooler air from the NW making its way in here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No matter how you slice it we have a highly elevated chance of seeing a decent winter this year. Just based on solar alone we are in fantastic company. Now that ENSO has come around and the warm water over the NE Pacific has begun to shift westward we're in great shape.

Definitely appears to be elevated chances of high latitude blocking this winter, barring any significant geomagnetic storming in the S/O/N period or a belated seasonality in the tropics. For the PNW, early indications are dry, but I have no idea on temps..could be a cold/blocky dry or ridgy depending on a multitude of factors that are not decipherable to me yet.

 

Also need to see how the IPWP/WP evolves through the cold season, and whether we do indeed trend more +ENSO as the winter progresses.

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I think the warm SST anoms right along the coast have played a role in the warm minimum temps we have seen this summer. During onshore flow periods the high SSTs result in higher dew points. I guess my point is the recent shift from low pressure off the West Coast to high pressure will eventually result in cooler air from the NW making its way in here.

Oh, gotcha. I don’t know enough about your climate to form an opinion re: SSTs/dews/nighttime lows, so I’ll trust your interpretation of that over mine.

 

As did the pattern, I agree there should be an intraseasonal scale cool pattern starting sometime during the first week of September. But of course, it’s not driven by the NPAC SSTs, lol. And 4-5 weeks from now, this exact mode of tropical/subtropical forcing will likely produce a different wave train structure locally due to the seasonal alterations to the boundary conditions through which the dynamics arise from/via.

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If only we could have gotten some snow up here with the December Arctic Blast. Then it would be up there with 16-17 and 08-09 for me.

 

Salmon Creek where my folks are had 2" going into that event. Enough to keep it white through the whole week. Then over a foot there with the February storms. Areas away from the strong outflow did much better that winter.

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