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August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Camping at Nannie peak at 6,000ft tonight.

14275ft in Colorado. Pretty good walk.

Quite the hailstorm in Central and Eastern Oregon!   Dave Steckler @DaveSteckler @NWSPendleton 6" hail on ground tumalo   https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSPendleton/status/1159993878423863296   Garret H

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after all the media hype you may end up proven right about the coaster skimmer idea if so fantastic call Phil when most everyone was calling this a Florida hit.

Ha, we’ll see. It’s early..the pattern is such that it could easily wander about, miss the fetch, and plow into the outer banks/delmarva. Not much support on guidance right now but just few tiny tweaks would turn this into a nightmare for a lot of people that aren’t expecting anything right now.

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Well August is over basically. Monthly rain total 1.57”, 75/57 average, 7 80+ days, 0 85+ days.

High temp of 76 today, had a little shower pass through earlier as well today.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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Well August is over basically. Monthly rain total 1.57”, 75/57 average, 7 80+ days, 0 85+ days.

High temp of 76 today, had a little shower pass through earlier as well today.

Yeah certainly a wet August. If the rain event on 8/21 had hit as per the models, it would have been the wettest since 2004. After the last two bone dry summers it’s kinda weird to see 1.57” fall in Tacoma.

 

I’ll calculate the average temps for PDX and HIO later.

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Ha, we’ll see. It’s early..the pattern is such that it could easily wander about, miss the fetch, and plow into the outer banks/delmarva. Not much support on guidance right now but just few tiny tweaks would turn this into a nightmare for a lot of people that aren’t expecting anything right now.

exackly these sort of patterns are the most challenging to pin down which is why no one can put there guards down because these things can throw a real cerve ball.alot of times its the small factors that ultimately become the big determination of the whole track.
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Yeah certainly a wet August. If the rain event on 8/21 had hit as per the models, it would have been the wettest since 2004. After the last two bone dry summers it’s kinda weird to see 1.57” fall in Tacoma.

 

I’ll calculate the average temps for PDX and HIO later.

Wasn't exactly a wet month for the region. Wetter than normal some areas, drier than normal others. Tacoma was one of the wetter spots. Most of the area between Eugene and Portland was dry, as well as areas north of Seattle.

 

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

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Tim's hot girl summer.

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Wasn't exactly a wet month for the region. Wetter than normal some areas, drier than normal others. Tacoma was one of the wetter spots. Most of the area between Eugene and Portland was dry, as well as areas north of Seattle.

 

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

makes up for this spring when the south sound was constantly rain shadowed. Recent rain in the area has helped out the balance a bit I guess. We had 1.44” of rain in March, but 1.57” in August lol.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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makes up for this spring when the south sound was constantly rain shadowed. Recent rain in the area has helped out the balance a bit I guess. We had 1.44” of rain in March, but 1.57” in August lol.

I imagine only a handful of years have accomplished a drier March than August. :)

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Tim's hot girl summer.

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I imagine only a handful of years have accomplished a drier March than August. :)

 

 

The Cedar Lake station near me almost had a wetter August than March as well.

 

And March averages 4 times as much rain as August.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Thank God it looks like Dorian will recurve out to sea.

 

There might not be anything left of the Bahamas by time that happens.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I imagine only a handful of years have accomplished a drier March than August. :)

Id have to go back and look but it wouldn’t surprise me if it hasn’t happened at all or only a couple times. Last few months have had interesting precip totals since March. MAR 1.44” APR 2.29” MAY 0.52” JUN 0.17” JUL 0.99” AUG 1.57”. Uncommon spread.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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Uh, guys...

 

@MJVentrice

14m14 minutes ago

 

Here's the latest from our 18Z #IBM MPAS run. Despite the ECMWF(euro) offshore trend over the past 24 hours, our MPAS model stalls Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast for a few hours and slowly brings it onshore.

 

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

 

(I copied and pasted)

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Uh, guys...

 

@MJVentrice

14m14 minutes ago

 

Here's the latest from our 18Z #IBM MPAS run. Despite the ECMWF(euro) offshore trend over the past 24 hours, our MPAS model stalls Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast for a few hours and slowly brings it onshore.

 

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

 

(I copied and pasted)

Florida landfall still seems quite possible to me. Steering causing the N and E turn looks pretty weak.
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Very warm evening. 66 outside currently. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like some signs of fall on the 00z. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Its as if Trump has deployed some kind of deflector shield over Palm Beach.   Dorian comes in heading straight west and gets right up to the Florida coast and makes a sharp right turn.

 

The Bahamas are screwed though.

 

ecmwf-florida-gust-sw-ath-mph-7598400.pn

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hard RIGHT!

 

Does this mean Trump is a lock for a 4th term?!

 

Honk Honk

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Holy guacamole...

 

 

@splillo

4 minHá 4 minutos

Mais

Latest recon pass through #Dorian's eye and the NW eyewall shows another pressure drop, with min extrapolated pressure of 922.5mb.

Additionally, 159kt flight level winds - the highest measured thus far.

 

 

 

@pppapin

2 minHá 2 minutos

Mais

#Dorian keeps intensifying. Most recent set of recon obs in the NW quad have max flight level winds at 159kt & SFMR (which may have a high bias) at whopping 172kt!

 

Minimum extrapolated pressure is down to 922.5-hPa too. Almost at #GreatAbaco island in the #Bahamas.

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Michael Fischer

@MikeFischerWx

This dropsonde profile from the ongoing Air Force mission into Hurricane #Dorian is incredible. Mean winds in the lowest 150 m of 157 kt (180 mph). Peak winds of 192 kt (221 mph).

 

 

Latest pressure reading 913mb!

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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You can see the 'stadium effect' in the eye this morning...

 

dor.png

 

 

The eye will pass right over Marsh Harbour and Elbow Cay in the northern Bahamas... likely wiping these places off the map entirely.    Hope nobody is left there.

 

dor2.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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EUG finished the month +2.9F and -0.06" rain.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Wind already up to 128 mph at Marsh Harbour... suspect this will be the last update from there.

 

mh.png

There is a storm chaser tweeting from there. Sounds like is is held up in a school and there are people including children.

 

“11:40 am. Pounding. CRASHING. Boards prying off windows. We're moving children to a safe space, wrapping them in blankets. 969 mg. #DORIAN”

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OMG..the new advisory has Dorian with 185mph sustained winds, and gusts to 220mph!

 

G2gwCV6.jpg

 

Weird hurricane season.  Deader than a doornail and then one storm that will more than make up for that from an ACE perspective.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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