September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

70/68 currently. It’s a complete shock to the system compared to the cool mornings lately. Our stretch of no 80s is in jeopardy today with a forecasted high of 79. Still on track for 2-5” or more of rain tonight through Thursday. All severe modes possible tomorrow.

 

I really dig those snow maps,Tom. Soon.....

[Niko]

Jaster- How much water did ya pick up last night?

[OmahaSnowFan]

Had the best storm of the year last night and wasn't even expecting anything. I believe there was a 30% of storms last night and I figured once the storms went up in Iowa everything was going to be east of here. I wasn't expecting any new development so late in the evening so these storms and the coverage definitely overachieved.

About 1000 last night, I noticed some cells popping up back to my southwest between here and Grand Island. It looked like they were heading right towards me and were pretty active with lightning. About 11, I went to my spot where I get a good view to the west and took some lightning pics. Of course, all the lightning was cloud to cloud (sheet) lightning. I swear this happens about 80% of the time.

A warning was issued at one point for about 25 miles west of here for winds to 60 mph, but those storms weakened. I went home about 1130 and it was just starting to rain pretty good with some thunder and lightning. 

I stayed up until around midnight and was going to go to bed. I kept checking the radar and cells were still developing and popping up all over, but nothing looked too crazy. Saw a few reports of small hail pop up on Spotter Network too.

All the sudden about 1245a, the lightning and thunder became more intense and then the power went out. We have fans in all of our bedrooms, so of course now the house was deafeningly quiet except for the thunder and the rain pouring on the roof. Our girls though immediately started crying bc the fans went off, so we went to go check on them.

When I got back to my 4 year old's room though and opened the door, it was VERY LOUD in there! The winds were blowing like crazy and the rain and small hail was hitting her west facing window. Didn't help she's on the 2nd floor too. Poor thing had her hands over her ears and was screaming in terror

So the 2 girls slept in mommy and daddy's room last night. The power was out all the way until 6am. It actually stormed off and on for a few more hours as well so we were woken up by the occasional loud thunder. Believe I saw there were about 3k people without power in our part of town. Local meteorologist here showed a velocity image around that time of winds estimated 55-60 mph.

This morning, on the way to taking the girls to school, there were some large branches broken and even a couple of smaller trees uprooted in our neighborhood.

Ended up with 1.4" of rain in my rain gauge as well. Wish I would have been able to see outside when the storm hit. However, it seems like we always get these storms in the middle of the night anyway.

[Tom]

Had the best storm of the year last night and wasn't even expecting anything. I believe there was a 30% of storms last night and I figured once the storms went up in Iowa everything was going to be east of here. I wasn't expecting any new development so late in the evening so these storms and the coverage definitely overachieved.

About 1000 last night, I noticed some cells popping up back to my southwest between here and Grand Island. It looked like they were heading right towards me and were pretty active with lightning. About 11, I went to my spot where I get a good view to the west and took some lightning pics. Of course, all the lightning was cloud to cloud (sheet) lightning. I swear this happens about 80% of the time.

A warning was issued at one point for about 25 miles west of here for winds to 60 mph, but those storms weakened. I went home about 1130 and it was just starting to rain pretty good with some thunder and lightning.

I stayed up until around midnight and was going to go to bed. I kept checking the radar and cells were still developing and popping up all over, but nothing looked too crazy. Saw a few reports of small hail pop up on Spotter Network too.

All the sudden about 1245a, the lightning and thunder became more intense and then the power went out. We have fans in all of our bedrooms, so of course now the house was deafeningly quiet except for the thunder and the rain pouring on the roof. Our girls though immediately started crying bc the fans went off, so we went to go check on them.

When I got back to my 4 year old's room though and opened the door, it was VERY LOUD in there! The winds were blowing like crazy and the rain and small hail was hitting her west facing window. Didn't help she's on the 2nd floor too. Poor thing had her hands over her ears and was screaming in terror

So the 2 girls slept in mommy and daddy's room last night. The power was out all the way until 6am. It actually stormed off and on for a few more hours as well so we were woken up by the occasional loud thunder. Believe I saw there were about 3k people without power in our part of town. Local meteorologist here showed a velocity image around that time of winds estimated 55-60 mph.

This morning, on the way to taking the girls to school, there were some large branches broken and even a couple of smaller trees uprooted in our neighborhood.

Ended up with 1.4" of rain in my rain gauge as well. Wish I would have been able to see outside when the storm hit. However, it seems like we always get these storms in the middle of the night anyway.

I must say, this was a very interesting read and I felt like I was in your house during the storm! Nice write up and thanks for sharing your story. Glad your family is alright. This will be a moment you’ll never forget.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I must say, this was a very interesting read and I felt like I was in your house during the storm! Nice write up and thanks for sharing your story. Glad your family is alright. This will be a moment you’ll never forget.

Thanks! I always feel like I over explain things or give too much detail so it was nice to hear a compliment.   My wife is always telling me my stories take too long to tell 

[Bryan1117]

Thanks! I always feel like I over explain things or give too much detail so it was nice to hear a compliment. My wife is always telling me my stories take too long to tell

Nice write up, sounds like you got lucky to get under a good storm last night.

 

I am definitely jealous that you got a decent thunderstorm. Where I live (Millard area) I heard some distant thunder last night and got a few rain drops at best.

[jaster220]

Feeling your pain here where I live too (SW side of Omaha). We have been missed by every direction in my backyard seemingly the last few nights. Missed out on decent storms by 10 2 miles to the south over the weekend, and then by 10 2 miles to the north last night.

 

Over the last week I have seen barely 0.10” 0.20" of rain, this pattern sucks. What a lousy summer for storms here.

 

There, corrected for mby...some have (had) it worse than you believe it or not. 

[jaster220]

Jaster- How much water did ya pick up last night?

 

Don't have a rain guage, and the airport a mile south missed most of this small cell (0.01" there, again). It was heavy, but brief. if I had to guess I'd say 0.15-20"

 

Better than nothing and I can hope for more this week now..

[CentralNebWeather]

Humidity is back.  85 feels like 91 with a 70 dew.  It is now Sept. 10th, this gets more difficult to take the farther we get into September.  

[Stormy]

[westMJim]

Getting some thunder here at this time. Odd went thru most of the summer without a thunderstorm and now there is one just to my west. current temperature here is 82 and cloudy with that thunder. 

[james1976]

Mid 80s and humid out to the middle of next week. It can stop anytime now.

[Minny_Weather]

Today was miserable. Currently 87.1*F with a DP around 70, but it was worse earlier in the day.

[Minny_Weather]

In other news, the first WWA of the season in the CONUS just got issued. 

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Billings MT
245 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

MTZ067-112045-
/O.NEW.KBYZ.WW.Y.0028.190911T0600Z-190912T1200Z/
Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
245 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 8000 ft. Total snow accumulations 6
to 8 inches expected. Localized heavier amounts on the highest
peaks.

* WHERE...Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Travelers
on the Beartooth Pass should be prepared for rapidly changing
weather conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

For the latest road conditions, call 5 1 1.

Additional graphics for this hazard can be found at
http://www.weather.gov/billings

[OmahaSnowFan]

Nice write up, sounds like you got lucky to get under a good storm last night.

 

I am definitely jealous that you got a decent thunderstorm. Where I live (Millard area) I heard some distant thunder last night and got a few rain drops at best.

That stinks. The storms were pretty cellular and would strengthen and weaken it seemed like, so they were spotty in some cases for sure. I actually thought we would have had more rainfall than 1.4". It sure seemed like it rained more than that

[Niko]

Don't have a rain guage, and the airport a mile south missed most of this small cell (0.01" there, again). It was heavy, but brief. if I had to guess I'd say 0.15-20"

 

Better than nothing and I can hope for more this week now..

Wow...like you said above in your statement, I guess that's betta than nothing. I think you have a shot this week, hopefully.

[Niko]

Man, its a warm, humid evening out there. Kinda feels nice though. Its not terribly bad tbh. Temps are holding in the 70s under partly cloudy skies. No storms today. Lets see if any will fire up tomorrow.

[Niko]

The next 2 weeks are looking warm. Afterwards, it will start cooling off. In the meantime, 70s and 80s for highs w some humidity. I'd say that is perfect weather to have in September. Makes no sense to look for chilly to cold weather this early in the season. Now, come October, then, that's a different story. Halloween just around the corner.

[jaster220]

82F H.I. at 10 pm here in Marshall. AC in full swing for a good night's rest. I really didn't mind the heat this evening. Wife and I had a nice walk without a hot sun beating down like JJA. Hey, -NAO/AO stole our June so we deserve and need September to make up for that. I remember plenty of miserably hot days when school started post-LDW and we didn't have AC until high school in my small town way back then.    

[Tom]

82F H.I. at 10 pm here in Marshall. AC in full swing for a good night's rest. I really didn't mind the heat this evening. Wife and I had a nice walk without a hot sun beating down like JJA. Hey, -NAO/AO stole our June so we deserve and need September to make up for that. I remember plenty of miserably hot days when school started post-LDW and we didn't have AC until high school in my small town way back then.    

Tell me about it Jaster.  I don't mind having a little bit of "extended summer" in Sept but I'm sure those out in the Plains would fair better without them.  It's a soupy morning here 73F/71F...been a while since I can remember waking up to such a humid house.  My A/C doesn't really turn on much overnight and holds its temperature pretty good.  I'm going to enjoy the next 10 days or so of warmth bc I know what's coming down the piper.

[Tom]

Today, we remind ourselves of the innocent lives that were taken away from us on 9/11/01, a day I will never forget.  Our nation is the strongest in the world.  Hands down.  We have come a long way since those attacks and we cherish those who risked their lives for our safety and freedom.  #neverforget

 

 

An interesting week if you study numerology as this is "Palindorome Week"...today is a very powerful day in the world of #'s and it's energy.

 

[Tom]

I'm seeing some very encouraging signs that Autumn is going to snap right back, after our extended delay in Autumn weather, which will continue through mid-Sept before BIG changes occur.  The storm which has been on the calendar, is now showing up on all the models around the 20th/21st with various solutions, all of which, are suggesting a strong storm targeting the N Rockies and then cutting NW.  The pattern in the extended is definitely looking very different from the past year's LRC and starting to take on a dramatically different look.  For instance, the SER is likely to fade post 21st and into October as troughing is to replace the "resilient ridge" in the SE.

 

The models over the past few days have been indicating a tropical system re-curving east of Japan and then towards the Aleutian Islands in the Day 6-10 range.  This, my friends, may be our 1st storm system of the "new" LRC pattern around Oct 5th-8th.  At this point in time, my best guess in terms of track and location of this potential system, I feel there will be blocking across western Canada and we'll have a "cutter" type storm coming out of the Plains states.  Get ready for an exciting autumn and tracking storm systems.

[james1976]

Today, we remind ourselves of the innocent lives that were taken away from us on 9/11/01, a day I will never forget. Our nation is the best in the world. Hands down. We have come a long way since those attacks and we cherish those who risked their lives for our safety and freedom. #neverforget

 

 

An interesting week if you follow numerology at all as this is "Palindorome Week"...today is a very powerful day in the world on #'s and it's energy.

 

I'll never forget that day. I was thinking about it on the way into work this morning.

[Andie]

Today, we remind ourselves of the innocent lives that were taken away from us on 9/11/01, a day I will never forget.  Our nation is the best in the world.  Hands down.  We have come a long way since those attacks and we cherish those who risked their lives for our safety and freedom.  #neverforget

Amen Tom. We all enjoined and became a nation united to honor and serve Liberty that day.

It's been a dificult 18 years for Americans, but we won't stand down just because the job is hard.

 

Never Forget

[westMJim]

First off a short prayer in remembrance of 9/11/2001.

Yesterdays H/L at Grand Rapids was 86/63. Yesterday I recorded 0.18” of rain fall while at the airport they reported 0.21”.  The overnight low here at my house was 61 while at GRR the official low was 64. The record high for today is 94 set in 1931 and the record low is 32 set in 1943. The warmest minimum was 71 in 1931 and the coldest maximum was 55 set 1940. Last year on this date the H/L was 76/52

[Niko]

Currently at 72F w sunny skies. Its gorgeous outside. Had my sprinklers running and enjoyed watching them run, while drinking my morning coffee and laptop next to me. Hopefully some severe storms today.

[Niko]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI351 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-351 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightA moist and unstable airmass will lead to numerous thunderstormsdeveloping this afternoon, continuing through much of tonight as afrontal boundary hangs around. The thunderstorms will be strong tomarginally severe, capable of producing wind gusts of 50-60 MPH andvery heavy rainfall which may cause urban and small stream typeflooding. The storms look to be strongest in the 3-10 PM window.Average storm motion will be east around 25 mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through TuesdayThere is a continued chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday,with a marginal risk of severe storms on Friday.

[OKwx2k4]

I'll never forget that day. I was thinking about it on the way into work this morning.

  

Amen Tom. We all enjoined and became a nation united to honor and serve Liberty that day.

It's been a dificult 18 years for Americans, but we won't stand down just because the job is hard.

Never Forget

Today, we remind ourselves of the innocent lives that were taken away from us on 9/11/01, a day I will never forget.  Our nation is the best in the world.  Hands down.  We have come a long way since those attacks and we cherish those who risked their lives for our safety and freedom.  #neverforget

 

I'm thankful every day that I breathe because of this day. Not because we lost and because of the pain or the lives lost, but because 285 million Americans were unified. If only for one day, we were United as patriotic sons and daughters of God, who remembered what it was to be the strongest nation on earth. 2977 people passed away. I was 16 years old and whatever ounce of child or innocent I was left at that moment left me. This is one of the 4 days of my life that is hardest to reflect on because it changed so much. I'll never tell a man that he went to Iraq for nothing. Those men went for me. They put their lives down went to war because it was right and just.

When they say never forget, I haven't. I haven't forgotten one single solitary moment of what it felt like to be so proud to be an American and yet have such a broken heart. Never forget. Never ever. No matter what history is revised to. It's not wrong to love this nation or love the men and women who fight for it.

[Hawkeye]

The longer the showers and clouds can fester across Iowa today, the better it should be for my area tonight.  The latest HRRR brings a boundary down to the CR/IC area tonight and pops some storms.  The 3k NAM keeps it just north and east.

[Niko]

Jaster- this looks like your week buddy as numerous storms will be firing up. Hope you score big with these cells.

[Stacsh]

Looks even warmer next week.  

[Niko]

Looks even warmer next week.  

It gets much cooler the following week.

[Niko]

Currently at 79F w a dew of 73F. Now, its getting too uncomfortable for my taste. Hate the humidity. RF is at 85F.

[jaster220]

Is mby's losing streak about to go down in flames?? Do droughts REALLY end with a flood?

 

Let's see how well my rain dome holds up against this "threat":

 

 

Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1111 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...Heavy Rain may lead to Ponding on Roadways and Flooding through
Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms with torrential rainfall are possible
this afternoon through the overnight hours across all of western
Lower Michigan. With the very humid airmass in place, several
inches of rain may fall in a quick amount of time leading to
ponding on roadways and flooding in low-lying areas. Total
rainfall amounts may exceed 3 inches in locations repeatedly hit
by thunderstorms by sunrise Thursday. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible through Friday, as well.

[Tom]

A taste of Winter has arrived in the central Rockies as parts of Utah experienced their 1st snows of the season...

 

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2019/9/10/20859003/utah-snow-utwx-weather-bald-mountain-photos

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR is showing something like what DVN is talking about.  The front sags south to near CR, then storms pop and train just north of the front.  Like DVN says, though, the front has to sag down here.

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1110 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

A very challenging forecast is in store for tonight. Though I am
still very much in the coordination and interrogation stages of
making this forecast, I would like to pass on some mesoscale
things our forecast will hing on. First, the outflow arriving from
the west is oriented parallel to the flow below 700mb, and should
not be the focus for storms tonight. The mesoscale models all
support an exceptionally heavy rain tonight over our northern 1/2
or so. That hinges on the central Wisconsin MCS outflow moving due
south, pushing the effective warm front into our northern 1/2. If
that does not happen, then the event may not happen tonight in
our north. Still, this is a possible high impact scenario, we will
need to be ready for as the day progresses. A flash flood watch
may be issued for our northern counties if confidence increases,
as they are most prone to water problems due to recent wet
weather. We will begin social media on this threat soon, but
again, low confidence exists due to the mesoscale forcing, that is
not yet showing it's hand.

[jaster220]

I'm seeing some very encouraging signs that Autumn is going to snap right back, after our extended delay in Autumn weather, which will continue through mid-Sept before BIG changes occur.  The storm which has been on the calendar, is now showing up on all the models around the 20th/21st with various solutions, all of which, are suggesting a strong storm targeting the N Rockies and then cutting NW.  The pattern in the extended is definitely looking very different from the past year's LRC and starting to take on a dramatically different look.  For instance, the SER is likely to fade post 21st and into October as troughing is to replace the "resilient ridge" in the SE.

 

The models over the past few days have been indicating a tropical system re-curving east of Japan and then towards the Aleutian Islands in the Day 6-10 range.  This, my friends, may be our 1st storm system of the "new" LRC pattern around Oct 5th-8th.  At this point in time, my best guess in terms of track and location of this potential system, I feel there will be blocking across western Canada and we'll have a "cutter" type storm coming out of the Plains states.  Get ready for an exciting autumn and tracking storm systems.

 

Interesting.. Is that a little tropical system coming inland at the FL panhandle? Heads almost due north towards NOH, like it gets picked-up by the stronger Plains system. All I can say is that the #wx can only get more interesting for my place vs the last (10) weeks. 

 

Here we go..

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1049 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

 

Confidence is increasing that thunderstorms with damaging winds,

small hail, and torrential rainfall will occur starting as early

as 2 PM but mainly after 4 PM through midnight across all of western

Lower Michigan. A non-zero tornado threat may also develop as

well, mainly north of I-96. The threat is expected to wane after

sunset and especially toward midnight. For interested parties, a

more technical discussion is provided below.

[jaster220]

Paul Harvey (Jr) is now working for GRR. The rest of the story..

 

With continued diurnal heating and modest moisture advection into
the early afternoon hours, thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and south of the aforementioned backdoor front (which will
probably end up more of a differential heating boundary than
anything else) perhaps as early as 2 PM this afternoon but more
likely after 4 PM, generally south of US-10 and east of US-131.
All the same, increasing mesoscale forcing associated with the
shortwave trough in Wisconsin will likely introduce a second area
of convection into western Lower Michigan by early evening, with
hints of a linear complex already developing from Stevens Point to
the Dells as of this writing. Even while mid-level lapse rates
are progged to be meager this afternoon and the low-level jet
should stay further west tied to a more appreciable trough across
the western US, effective bulk wind shear of 30-35 kts (some
forecasts push 45-50 kts), strong forcing, and favorable diurnal
timing leverage concern for thunderstorms to become severe with
damaging winds/downed tree limbs and marginally severe hail as the
main threats. Given the potential magnitude of the shear, a
supercell or two is also possible which would increase the hail
threat as well as present a a brief/weak tornado threat,
especially along the heating boundary where low-level shear and
ambient baroclinity will be maximized. As such, the upgrade to a
Slight Risk for severe weather by the SPC is appropriate.
Thunderstorms should wane in intensity with each hour after sunset
in the absence of a low-level jet to replenish diurnally-lost
instability.

Not to be forgotten, any thunderstorm this afternoon will produce
torrential rainfall with localized ponding on roadways and in
low- lying areas given PWATs > 1.75". Note that the 00Z 9/11 SPC
HREF 24- hr ensemble localized probability-matched mean indicated
the potential for several swaths of 2-3" amounts by the time
convection wanes toward sunset.

Updated products will be sent soon.

[jaster220]

Jaster- this looks like your week buddy as numerous storms will be firing up. Hope you score big with these cells.

 

Thx buddy. Same back atcha!  I think you'll do well further eastward. GRR saying the storms fire mainly east of K'zoo so they won't have too much time to get going strong (35 miles or one county) before they're past my place. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks we get a nice cold front to come through overnight with a much cooler and hopefully drier airmass.  What I have noticed so far in the last month or so, we may get a front to come through, but it just doesn't scour out enough of the humidity and then when the front comes back north we are left with upper 60's to mid 70's dews.  In years with not nearly as much rainfall, when those fronts come back north they bring a hot and dry wind with fairly low dews.  Just my 2 cents of what I am seeing around here this year.