September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Its a balmy night out there currently and quite humid  w readings reading this 70/68.

[jaster220]

Its a balmy night out there currently and quite humid  w readings reading this 70/68.

 

Temps next week look to be about 10 deg's lower than this week's been. Touched 86F here today, lower 70's in my grid after Monday. Monday might stay in the 60's but we'll see. Just like July, the below normal is all hanging out on the other side. My inlaws are already wearing coats. I remember visiting there in Sept of '08 while it was still warm here (like this yr) and it was 40-ish for a high. Had to break out the portable space heater in the apt since their steam heat system hadn't been fired up yet for winter. 

[Tom]

I busted badly on the anticipation of a cooler pattern for this month.  Didn't see the amount of heat/warmth that has come and is forthcoming to close out the month.  With that being said, overnight temps have been torching the last 2 weeks.

 

 

 

 

The last 2 weeks have literally erased any BN departures for our entire Sub, esp up north where it started off really cold.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

GEFS is making it seem like there is finally an end in sight to this awful ridge. It's still a couple weeks away though lol

[OKwx2k4]

I busted badly on the anticipation of a cooler pattern for this month. Didn't see the amount of heat/warmth that has come and is forthcoming to close out the month. With that being said, overnight temps have been torching the last 2 weeks.

 

 

 

 

The last 2 weeks have literally erased any BN departures for our entire Sub, esp up north where it started off really cold.

 

 

The good news....if theres any to be had, is that usually (I say 'usually' because it's not a forecast or a guess, on my part) this pattern breaks and reverses into the total opposite over the course of a month or 2. That would put the coldest anomalies anywhere directly back in the dead-center of the CONUS.

 

We'll see what happens. Here's hoping I'm correct.

[OKwx2k4]

Aside from some light rain yesterday and some wind lingering around today, tropical storm really had no effects up this way. Cooler, windier morning today is nice though.

[Niko]

Currently at 65F w sunny skies. Dew is at 69, so, yes, I would say that is a bit uncomfortable for my taste.

[Hawkeye]

Right on cue, the first batch of heavy rain is missing southeast.  The CAMs continue to show much of the rain this weekend missing southeast.  This has been a frustrating summer.

[Niko]

Temps next week look to be about 10 deg's lower than this week's been. Touched 86F here today, lower 70's in my grid after Monday. Monday might stay in the 60's but we'll see. Just like July, the below normal is all hanging out on the other side. My inlaws are already wearing coats. I remember visiting there in Sept of '08 while it was still warm here (like this yr) and it was 40-ish for a high. Had to break out the portable space heater in the apt since their steam heat system hadn't been fired up yet for winter. 

It cooled off a bit in my forecast as well. Highs in the upper 60s to near 70F.

 

Back in history, old record still stands for Detroit being 30F, set back in 1974 on this date, lowest eva so early in the season. Keep in mind, average is still in the 70s, so don't expect cold air in September. Doesnt happen too often.

[jaster220]

I busted badly on the anticipation of a cooler pattern for this month.  Didn't see the amount of heat/warmth that has come and is forthcoming to close out the month.  With that being said, overnight temps have been torching the last 2 weeks.

 

 

 

 

The last 2 weeks have literally erased any BN departures for our entire Sub, esp up north where it started off really cold.

 

 

 

Glad you're honest wrt your bust. Looks like leafs should be popping in New England tho. They've remained below normal this entire time. 

[jaster220]

It cooled off a bit in my forecast as well. Highs in the upper 60s to near 70F.

 

Back in history, old record still stands for Detroit being 30F, set back in 1974 on this date, lowest eva so early in the season. Keep in mind, average is still in the 70s, so don't expect cold air in September. Doesnt happen too often.

 

Nope, but interestingly, that autumn led to an historically early winter mega-storm (2nd largest in Detroit's history), and the snowiest Dec on record for Motown. As I said earlier, while we are in the era of "quick flips", I'd still rather see a trend of chill vs setting warmth records, or chasing futility of latest freeze records, etc leading into winter.

 

We've seen some warm autumns turn-around into some really great winters, so it's not impossible that we do it again. But those years when autumn's chill and storminess made it clear that we were heading into a serious winter are the stuff of legends. This list of cold "precursor autumns" comes to mind for SMI: '74, '76, '81, '89, '00, '02, '08, '14. You could argue that by October of those years, the handwriting was on the wall for the upcoming winters. (2013 was tardy, not showing it's hand until the 3rd week of the month, but once flipped, it remained and didn't pull-back like 2014 and last year).  

[Niko]

Nope, but interestingly, that autumn led to an historically early winter mega-storm (2nd largest in Detroit's history), and the snowiest Dec on record for Motown. As I said earlier, while we are in the era of "quick flips", I'd still rather see a trend of chill vs setting warmth records, or chasing futility of latest freeze records, etc leading into winter.

 

We've seen some warm autumns turn-around into some really great winters, so it's not impossible that we do it again. But those years when autumn's chill and storminess made it clear that we were heading into a serious winter are the stuff of legends. This list of cold "precursor autumns" comes to mind for SMI: '74, '76, '81, '89, '00, '02, '08, '14. You could argue that by October of those years, the handwriting was on the wall for the upcoming winters. (2013 was tardy, not showing it's hand until the 3rd week of the month, but once flipped, it remained and didn't pull-back like 2014 and last year).  

Good point

 

I think Autumn 2013 was mild to warm right up until mid November or so and then, all of sudden, all hell broke loose and remain in tact until April. I remember getting my first accumulating snowfall in late Nov. Last time I saw grass was in late April and into early May. Man, that was such a sweet Winter.

[Tom]

Models are coming in rather aggressive with waves of showers/storms starting later tonight throughout Sunday/Sunday night.  LOT seems like its upping the ante on flooding rains...

 

[jaster220]

Models are coming in rather aggressive with waves of showers/storms starting later tonight throughout Sunday/Sunday night.  LOT seems like its upping the ante on flooding rains...

 

 

GRR says things will not get out of hand in SWMI and are not expecting flooding. I have about a 60% chance of 1" qpf which would be ideal for mby. Kzoo to GR and west will get the brunt of this one as has been the history the past year's pattern. Hopefully your place tolerates lots of water better than mine. 

[Niko]

GRR says things will not get out of hand in SWMI and are not expecting flooding. I have about a 60% chance of 1" qpf which would be ideal for mby. Kzoo to GR and west will get the brunt of this one as has been the history the past year's pattern. Hopefully your place tolerates lots of water better than mine. 

I think the latest models were pushing some of the heaviest bands a little further south, no?! Hopefully, it does. I can use some water for my lawn. Luckily, we are out of the "Abnormally Dry" title, but still, some needed rainfall is welcomed.

[jaster220]

Good point

 

I think Autumn 2013 was mild to warm right up until mid November or so and then, all of sudden, all hell broke loose and remain in tact until April. I remember getting my first accumulating snowfall in late Nov. Last time I saw grass was in late April and into early May. Man, that was such a sweet Winter.

 

Technically, we flipped to Below Normal in the 3rd week of Oct. November continued the theme but the synoptic snows kept missing SMI. I've been thinking how much more awesome that winter would've been had we received even (1) decent synoptic snow across SMI during Nov. As it were, I was working in St. Joseph that Nov and that region (N. Berrien Cnty) was hit with a pair of bigly LES events of 17" (13th) and 16" (27th) jackpot amts. I got to see/enjoy some crazy early deep snows that made me feel like I was living back in NMI again! 

 

Oct 2013:

 

[westMJim]

I Just got back from my walk and while it was nice and cool at the start it got warm and very humid by the end.  Yesterdays H/L at GRR was 83/61 and for the month Grand Rapids is now has a mean of 66.9°. The next 10 days will determine where this September ends up but at this time GR is running as the 8 warmest in GR history. The record high for today is 95 set in 2017 and the record low is 32 set in 1962. The warmest minimum is a very warm 76 set in 1931 (it must have been humid that day?) the coldest maximum was a cool 49 in 1913. Last year the H/L was 79/55

[james1976]

Yeah I think my avg is 74/49 now but we haven't had any 40s yet. Lately it's been in the upper 60s for lows. Currently its 72 but very thick cloud cover and breezy. Looks a bit more like fall with the leaves falling and some are changing color.

[Niko]

Technically, we flipped to Below Normal in the 3rd week of Oct. November continued the theme but the synoptic snows kept missing SMI. I've been thinking how much more awesome that winter would've been had we received even (1) decent synoptic snow across SMI during Nov. As it were, I was working in St. Joseph that Nov and that region (N. Berrien Cnty) was hit with a pair of bigly LES events of 17" (13th) and 16" (27th) jackpot amts. I got to see/enjoy some crazy early deep snows that made me feel like I was living back in NMI again! 

 

Oct 2013:

 

2013 Oct Temp Departs.jpg

Thanks for the maps amigo.

[Andie]

Very breezy this morning. Cloudy.

83*. Heading for mid 90's.

 

DP 72*

Humidity 74%. ....yeah

 

No rain in sight.

[james1976]

DMX seems a bit more excited about AN temps next week than local mets do.

 

Looking ahead to next week, Iowa seems to be setup for westerly to

southwesterly flow. This suggests above normal temperatures will

likely continue, with several rounds of precip possible. As such,

have begun to boost daytime temperatures versus model guidance. At

this time, Tuesday into Wednesday, and both Friday and Saturday are

the most favored time-frames for precipitation. Further, there is a

non-zero severe weather threat for Friday and Saturday.

[jaster220]

Storms popping in SMI (Niko??) much sooner than expected. Also, GRR fail calling for "nothing to see here" wrt to rainfall.

 

NOAA/NCEP begs to differ:

 

 

GRR playing catch-up, has now changed my grid to "Heavy Rain" vs just showers, for (3) periods beginning tonight.
 

 

[james1976]

I'm getting missed by all the rain to my SE but I'm not disappointed. I'm enjoying the overcast and breezy weather. Although temps are about normal or just a touch above, it still feels a bit like fall for once.

[OKwx2k4]

Technically, we flipped to Below Normal in the 3rd week of Oct. November continued the theme but the synoptic snows kept missing SMI. I've been thinking how much more awesome that winter would've been had we received even (1) decent synoptic snow across SMI during Nov. As it were, I was working in St. Joseph that Nov and that region (N. Berrien Cnty) was hit with a pair of bigly LES events of 17" (13th) and 16" (27th) jackpot amts. I got to see/enjoy some crazy early deep snows that made me feel like I was living back in NMI again!

 

Oct 2013:

 

2013 Oct Temp Departs.jpg

Those first two maps look about like the next 2 weeks in model land. Hmmmm... is it a sign of what's to come?

[Stormy]

Right on cue, the first batch of heavy rain is missing southeast.  The CAMs continue to show much of the rain this weekend missing southeast.  This has been a frustrating summer.

Just the past few days and wks were frustrating here. I would rather see the heaviest to my southeast for once though as that part of Ia had very little rainfall lately. The main conveyor of rain so far today was kind of over Johnson (my county) and Washington counties, but I keep getting shafted somewhat with the heaviest cells all around me. Last I checked I only had 0.36". I might be nearing a half inch now. Also attm appears like the more intense downpours are developing more southeast of the first band. Hopefully I can squeeze out another half inch before everything shifts east.

[Stormy]

Awhile ago Ottumwa airport already had around 1.73". Probably 2"> now

[Niko]

Storms popping in SMI (Niko??) much sooner than expected. Also, GRR fail calling for "nothing to see here" wrt to rainfall.

 

NOAA/NCEP begs to differ:

 

20190921 noaa d2.gif

 

GRR playing catch-up, has now changed my grid to "Heavy Rain" vs just showers, for (3) periods beginning tonight.

 

Yup....got a quick downpour (real hvy) lasted for a few minutes.

 

Enjoy the hvy rainfall bud. I should end up w an 1", maybe more. Main event late tomorrow afternoon into night.

[Minny_Weather]

Only one day close to normal (Thursday) over the next 10 days. Vomitrocious.

[bud2380]

My rain gauge broke so I don’t have a measurement of the rain we got at my house today. But the nearby high school reported 0.91”. It rained on and off all day. NAM and 3K NAM show 2”+ tomorrow for Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. Looks like a good day to relax and watch some football

[Stormy]

My sister who lives approximately 7 miles se. of me said they got 1.50" today while I only had 0.69". And yesterday morning they had 0.70" while I had only 0.06". Their total is around 2.20" and mine is 0.75". I knew I was getting shafted, but didn't figure it would be that bad. I enjoy heavy rain especially if we need it.

[Bryan1117]

Wow, I have picked up two inches of rain this evening in my rain gauge from some unexpected thunderstorms here in the Omaha metro. I was expecting everything to go south but at the last minute the activity pulled back north.

 

After a very dry last month, this week has been amazing!

[Stormy]

Only one day close to normal (Thursday) over the next 10 days. Vomitrocious.

I'm just loving this warm weather and I know the farmers who planted late are rejoicing at getting as many growing degree days as possible. I'm probably about the only guy on here that likes this warmth! We'll eventually cool off anyway, unless we go directly into winter sometime. And there's no point in getting snow before December as it usually doesn't stay around long earlier than that in my area anyway.

[Stormhunter87]

So big bust on forecast of heavy rain in northern MO. It has shifted over us. We don't need it now.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm just loving this warm weather and I know the farmers who planted late are rejoicing at getting as many growing degree days as possible. I'm probably about the only guy on here that likes this warmth! We'll eventually cool off anyway, unless we go directly into winter sometime. And there's no point in getting snow before December as it usually doesn't stay around long earlier than that in my area anyway.

Snow in November isn't always completely pointless. When accompanied by BN temps, a snowpack originating in November actually has the potential to stick around for a while due to low sun angle. I'd rather see November snow than March snow.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Picked up over an inch of rain tonight! Nice thunderstorms!

[snowstorm83]

Close to 1.5" this evening in Lincoln. First decent rain in a while, we've been getting nickeled and dimed a lot lately. 

[OKwx2k4]

Lots of rainfall coming into the picture for a fair number of us over the next 6 days starting tomorrow. (OK and points north and lightly east) this is a difference in the pattern from the last few weeks before a really strong ridging episode for the time of year tries to overtake the pattern for 4-6 days. Although models are showing higher than average temperatures east of the Rockies for the majority of the reasonable model run, it goes without saying that with the rain, although highs may be 4-6° above avg for most of us, they'll be short-lived on most days when rain falls.

 

May be a sign this pattern is on it's heels after all and that fall is truly finally well on it's way. This summer has felt like a 15 round bout that was only scheduled for 12 though. I'll be glad when its over.

[Hawkeye]

While the rain, overall, has tracked solidly across Iowa so far, I'm still getting very unlucky.  Overnight, the band of red cells moving in from central Iowa totally split and went around Cedar Rapids.  A band of very heavy rain tracked from central Iowa up through Waterloo and into sw Wisconsin.  1-2+ inches has fallen in that band.  Some of those locations have already received 10+" over the last two weeks.  More heavy stuff has tracked south, with North Liberty adding nicely to their total from yesterday.  The nickel & dimer rain events this month have kept the lawns nice and green, so we don't need the rain.  It's just that getting missed by all the heavy cells all this month is really bugging me.

 

Here's the storm total rainfall.  That relative dry slot that goes through the nw half of Cedar Rapids is right over my house.  

 

[Stormy]

While the rain, overall, has tracked solidly across Iowa so far, I'm still getting very unlucky.  Overnight, the band of red cells moving in from central Iowa totally split and went around Cedar Rapids.  A band of very heavy rain tracked from central Iowa up through Waterloo and into sw Wisconsin.  1-2+ inches has fallen in that band.  Some of those locations have already received 10+" over the last two weeks.  More heavy stuff has tracked south, with North Liberty adding nicely to their total from yesterday.  The nickel & dimer rain events this month have kept the lawns nice and green, so we don't need the rain.  It's just that getting missed by all the heavy cells all this month is really bugging me.

 

Here's the storm total rainfall.  That relative dry slot that goes through the nw half of Cedar Rapids is right over my house.  

 

dry slot.png

I agree we don't really need much rainfall especially when a lot more is possible in the next week, and I know what you mean about the "bugging" part. Lol

[westMJim]

Here at my house I have recorded 0.35” of rain overnight. But, the bigger story is the rain to come.  And so far the overnight low at Grand Rapids so far looks to be just 70 (68 here at my house) if the temperature stays at or above 67 until midnight that will set a new warmest minimum for September 22. The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 85/64. GR has now seen 12 days in a row of above average temperatures. The record high for today is 95 set in 2017. The record low is 33 set in 1976. The current warmest minimum is 67 set in 1931 and the record coldest maximum is 50 set in 1995. Last year the H/L was 65/46.