Niko Posted September 29, 2019 Report Share Posted September 29, 2019 Here comes some Summertime action: Hazardous Weather OutlookHazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI400 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-301000-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-400 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...This Afternoon and TonightThunderstorms are possible tonight as warmer and more humid airmoves back into southeast Michigan. The strongest storms will becapable of frequent lightning and heavy downpours while movingsouthwest to northeast at 30 mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through SaturdayThere is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday as acold front moves through the region. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted September 29, 2019 Report Share Posted September 29, 2019 Clouds actually kept temps down today, but temperatures are supposed to rise overnight and tomorrow will still be pretty bad, 90 is likely. Dews could shoot to 70 as far north as Central Minnesota. Then Fall-ish weather finally. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 29, 2019 Report Share Posted September 29, 2019 I think we hit a high of 90 today. Dews have been up 70 with south winds gusting over 45 mph. Not a pleasant day for much of anything. Even had a heat index of 95 earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 29, 2019 Report Share Posted September 29, 2019 Raining moderately w temps in the upper 50s. A chilly day indeed. Defintely a nice little soaker. My lawn needed it. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 29, 2019 Report Share Posted September 29, 2019 I think we hit a high of 90 today. Dews have been up 70 with south winds gusting over 45 mph. Not a pleasant day for much of anything. Even had a heat index of 95 earlier. Raining moderately w temps in the upper 50s. A chilly day indeed. Defintely a nice little soaker. My lawn needed it. Quite a contrast across our sub. I wonder if this will happen much over the winter too? 0.73" of rain here today in Marshall. Nothing like some have had but a good soaker nonetheless, especially with the autumn chill of a 58F afternoon. I see the temps are actually rising into the low 60s now after the rain has moved out. Thinking I pro-actively turn on the a/c when I leave for work in the am. Crazy stuff..thought we were done with that, lol 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 29, 2019 Report Share Posted September 29, 2019 Speaking of others getting drowned with inches and inches of rain. It's noticeable how these systems have actually targeted Chicago and SOUTH with the jackpot vs Chicago and north (like most of the past 10 months). I'm keeping a close eye on trends now as we approach the changing of the guard wrt the LRC. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Quite a contrast across our sub. I wonder if this will happen much over the winter too? 0.73" of rain here today in Marshall. Nothing like some have had but a good soaker nonetheless, especially with the autumn chill of a 58F afternoon. I see the temps are actually rising into the low 60s now after the rain has moved out. Thinking I pro-actively turn on the a/c when I leave for work in the am. Crazy stuff..thought we were done with that, lolExactly, i.e., it felt rather coolish inside my home today, but knowing that heat n humidity is coming tomorrow and staying for 2 days, I kept my AC switch still on. I think by weeks end, I will have to change it to Heat, as temps drop into the 30s. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 8:30 pm on this Sunday evening. Temp is 80 feels like 85 with a 70 Dew. Very lovely July I mean late September night. South winds are still howling over 30 mph. I think we’ll be close to record high minimum temps overnight only dropping into the low 70’s when average low is 43. Amazing. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Clouds kept temperatures down to 77 today but won't tomorrow. Hot and humid for one day. Picked up quite a bit of rain this morning . Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Models continue to vary widely with the rain event Tuesday/Wednesday. The 3k NAM is on the GFS's side, showing little to nothing in east-central/southeast Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Rain has finally ended. Breaks in the overcast later tanite w readings holding in the 50s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNTonka Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 I spent the weekend at a cabin in northern Minnesota a bit south of Ely. I don’t know what it got down to officially Friday night, but it was definitely a pretty hard freeze. Saturday was cool, but very pleasant. Made for some great photo ops. Leaves are about a week away from peak I believe. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 27F was the low in Ely,MN Saturday AM. You probably were not too far away as the Ely airport is also on the South side. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 It's a foggy morning here (64F/64F), quite damp out there but this will burn off quickly as temps soar into the mid/upper 80's! Bust out the shorts and cut-offs...suns out, guns out! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Yesterdays official reported high at GRR was 61° this was reported just before midnight last night. While most of west Michigan did not get out of the 50’s. That reported H/L of 61/53 still was the first below average day at GRR in 19 days. And the coolest high at Grand Rapids since May 21st. The mean for the month of September at GR is now 66.2 and it looks like GR will end the month with as the 12th warmest September of record. For today the average H/L is now down to 67/47. The record high for today is 85 set in 1971 and the record low is 30 set in 1993. The warmest minimum is 64 set in 1905 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 1899. Last year the H/L was 50/42. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 It's a foggy morning here (64F/64F), quite damp out there but this will burn off quickly as temps soar into the mid/upper 80's! Bust out the shorts and cut-offs...suns out, guns out!The current temperature here at my house is now 57. While the official high here at GR yesterday was a reported 61 (just before midnight) it did not get out of the 50's here at my hose and has been 56 or 57 since yesterday afternoon. it is now just 66 in the house. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Amazing. A winter CE in Sept Civil Emergency MessageMTC035-073-301730-URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDCIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGEENTER NAME OF AGENCY REQUESTING PRODUCTRELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT1130 AM MDT SUN SEP 29 2019THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF PONDERACOUNTY DISASTER AND EMERGENCY SERVICES AND THE BLACKFEET NATIONEMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.AS OF 1130 AM ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29, PONDERA COUNTY DISASTER ANDEMERGENCY SERVICES AND THE BLACKFEET NATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONSCENTER HAS STATED ROADS ARE DANGEROUS AND REQUESTED LIMITED TRAVELTO EMERGENCY VEHICLES ONLY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 We'll have a High of 96* on this last day of September. October begins with a High forecast of 97*. Ugh. Our first cool front won't make it until next Sunday. We should see 89* this coming Sunday, then wake to low 60's! Several days in the low 80's with low 60's morning. Rain in the forecast as well. Bring it, Baby! Bring - it - on !! 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 The current temperature here at my house is now 57. While the official high here at GR yesterday was a reported 61 (just before midnight) it did not get out of the 50's here at my hose and has been 56 or 57 since yesterday afternoon. it is now just 66 in the house.That's a little too chilly in the house for this thin blooded Texan! But I'm so glad to see the heat break. I thought we would see an early Fall and more rain this late summer, but woah, missed that bus! 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 27F was the low in Ely,MN Saturday AM. You probably were not too far away as the Ely airport is also on the South side.Saturday morning I had a forecast low of 30, but only got to 38. Clouds moved in during the night. Places in northern Minnesota that stayed clear had a freeze. Obviously Ely stayed clear. On another note, it can't seem to stop raining around here. Over 7.5" the last 3 weeks. Some spots near me measured 7"+ in 24 hours on Sept 20-21 and stories of 9"+ going around from that day/night. If it were June the warm air and heart of the growing season would help dry things up. It being late September drying things up is a slow process dependant on clay soils that absorb slowly and gravity drainage in this flat area. Farmers might need the ground to freeze to harvest wheat and soybeans around here. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Last night I went to bed shivering it was so chilly in the house. Now it’s already 71/69 headed up to 84F. It’s quite swampy out there. Picked up about 0.75” of rain with the storms last night. First flakes for N MN by mid-week? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Currently 57F w cloudy skies. Highs are projected to be in the mid 70s today and mid 80s tomorrow. Then, Autumn returns by late week.. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNTonka Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 27F was the low in Ely,MN Saturday AM. You probably were not too far away as the Ely airport is also on the South side.27f or so sounds about right. It stayed clear the entire night. We were south of Ely, and east of Babbitt in the middle of nowhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 27f or so sounds about right. It stayed clear the entire night. We were south of Ely, and east of Babbitt in the middle of nowhere.Stayed up near Farm lake a couple weeks ago. Love it up there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Still cloudy and temps holding at 63F. Looks like that WF has not made through yet. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 For several days, this heavy rain band was predicted to be centered right through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Now it's yet another on-the-edge event. Earlier this month Dubuque received 5" of rain in one night. Even though it has been raining all month here as well, it has taken all month to get 5" in my yard. James is in a great spot for heavy rain. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Good, let's keep it NW of here this go-round Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Today's record is in danger. Forecasted high of 86*F, record at TOL is 85. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 For several days, this heavy rain band was predicted to be centered right through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Now it's yet another on-the-edge event. Earlier this month Dubuque received 5" of rain in one night. Even though it has been raining all month here as well, it has taken all month to get 5" in my yard. James is in a great spot for heavy rain. Hope you guys score bc I don’t need or want the rains! It’s crazy wet for late Sept standards around here. Grass is so lush and green. After these couple summery days, it’s going to grow like weeds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Just got back from my walk. At this time it feels and smells like a warm winter's day in south Florida. The current temperature here at my house is 76 with a dew point of 72. So it is warm and very humid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 We just hit the highest PWAT ever for this date. 1.59” for the last day of Sept is pretty crazy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 We just hit 91 with Dew in the low 60's, so it isn't terrible outside. Cold front is to my northwest. Rain and t storms ramp up this evening through tomorrow evening. Tomorrows forecast has falling temps all day. Looks like 30's by Thursday morning. Forecasters aren't calling for frost. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 For several days, this heavy rain band was predicted to be centered right through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Now it's yet another on-the-edge event. Earlier this month Dubuque received 5" of rain in one night. Even though it has been raining all month here as well, it has taken all month to get 5" in my yard. James is in a great spot for heavy rain. The Euro this afternoon appears to have shifted the heaver rains back into the Cedar Rapids area. It has 2-2.5" of rain in the Cedar Rapids area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 I have a temperature of 83 here with a DP of 72 for a very warm end of September. Will have to see what GRR comes up at the top of the next hour. The last reading there was 80° This is the 12th time the temperature has reached 80 or better on this date since 1892 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 30 to 90+ Even in spring that's not an every day occurrence, not @ 3 pm 8 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Jaster you beat me to it. Currently 88F with a heat index of 94F in Caledonia, MN. Meanwhile it’s 46F with a wind chill of 39F in Flag Island, MN. Crazy spread 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Mesoscale discussion out for possible watch this evening. Kind of caught me by surprise. I suppose some key ingredients are place today with this heat and humidity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Now we also have a new record for the highest dew point this late in the year. Hit 72F dew point at 4pm. Heat index of 90F. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted September 30, 2019 Report Share Posted September 30, 2019 Pretty crazy forecast discussion from OAX this afternoon. FFW with potential up to 5" of rain or more by Wednesday morning. The Gulf/tropical moisture available is above the climate recordsfor early October; above 2". Some of the model precipitable watervalues in southeast Nebraska exceed 2.5". NAEFS show some 3.5 to 6standard deviations related to PW and water vapor influx comparedto the climate normals. The combination of the slow moving front,favorable thickness diffluence that promote back- building ofstorms, warm cloud depths in excess of 4km that promote highlyefficient storms all favor heavy rainfall. Much of the area is inthe moderate category for excessive rainfall and we have a flashflood watch in effect until Wednesday morning. Current rainfallamounts are in the 1 to 3 inch range and we can expect some 1 to 2inch per hour rates, thus 5+ inches in spots is possible. Some ofthe models hint at a mesolow tracking northeast along the frontTuesday afternoon. Features like this can quickly increaserainfall rates. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.