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September 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Here comes some Summertime action:

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI400 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-301000-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-400 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...This Afternoon and TonightThunderstorms are possible tonight as warmer and more humid airmoves back into southeast Michigan. The strongest storms will becapable of frequent lightning and heavy downpours while movingsouthwest to northeast at 30 mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through SaturdayThere is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday as acold front moves through the region.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clouds actually kept temps down today, but temperatures are supposed to rise overnight and tomorrow will still be pretty bad, 90 is likely. Dews could shoot to 70 as far north as Central Minnesota. Then Fall-ish weather finally. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Raining moderately w temps in the upper 50s. A chilly day indeed. Defintely a nice little soaker. My lawn needed it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I think we hit a high of 90 today. Dews have been up 70 with south winds gusting over 45 mph. Not a pleasant day for much of anything. Even had a heat index of 95 earlier.

 

Raining moderately w temps in the upper 50s. A chilly day indeed. Defintely a nice little soaker. My lawn needed it.

 

Quite a contrast across our sub. I wonder if this will happen much over the winter too? 0.73" of rain here today in Marshall. Nothing like some have had but a good soaker nonetheless, especially with the autumn chill of a 58F afternoon. I see the temps are actually rising into the low 60s now after the rain has moved out. Thinking I pro-actively turn on the a/c when I leave for work in the am. Crazy stuff..thought we were done with that, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Speaking of others getting drowned with inches and inches of rain. It's noticeable how these systems have actually targeted Chicago and SOUTH with the jackpot vs Chicago and north (like most of the past 10 months). I'm keeping a close eye on trends now as we approach the changing of the guard wrt the LRC.

 

20190929 ORD Rainfall graphic.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Quite a contrast across our sub. I wonder if this will happen much over the winter too? 0.73" of rain here today in Marshall. Nothing like some have had but a good soaker nonetheless, especially with the autumn chill of a 58F afternoon. I see the temps are actually rising into the low 60s now after the rain has moved out. Thinking I pro-actively turn on the a/c when I leave for work in the am. Crazy stuff..thought we were done with that, lol

Exactly, i.e., it felt rather coolish inside my home today, but knowing that heat n humidity is coming tomorrow and staying for 2 days, I kept my AC switch still on. I think by weeks end, I will have to change it to Heat, as temps drop into the 30s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Models continue to vary widely with the rain event Tuesday/Wednesday.  The 3k NAM is on the GFS's side, showing little to nothing in east-central/southeast Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Rain has finally ended. Breaks in the overcast later tanite w readings holding in the 50s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I spent the weekend at a cabin in northern Minnesota a bit south of Ely. I don’t know what it got down to officially Friday night, but it was definitely a pretty hard freeze. Saturday was cool, but very pleasant. Made for some great photo ops. Leaves are about a week away from peak I believe.

4A677EA8-CC5F-466E-842E-A912A58AE753.jpeg

E0FE5E64-CD72-4228-80DF-0E5BC6EDA341.jpeg

4633DB91-65DD-4419-A624-09E5598F5D7F.jpeg

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Yesterdays official reported high at GRR was 61° this was reported just before midnight last night. While most of west Michigan did not get out of the 50’s. That reported H/L of 61/53 still was the first below average day at GRR in 19 days. And the coolest high at Grand Rapids since May 21st.   The mean for the month of September at GR is now 66.2 and it looks like GR will end the month with as the 12th warmest September of record.  For today the average H/L is now down to 67/47. The record high for today is 85 set in 1971 and the record low is 30 set in 1993. The warmest minimum is 64 set in 1905 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 1899. Last year the H/L was 50/42.

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It's a foggy morning here (64F/64F), quite damp out there but this will burn off quickly as temps soar into the mid/upper 80's!  Bust out the shorts and cut-offs...suns out, guns out!

The current temperature here at my house is now 57. While the official high here at GR yesterday was a reported 61 (just before midnight) it did not get out of the 50's here at my hose and has been 56 or 57 since yesterday afternoon. it is now just 66 in the house.

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Amazing. A winter CE in Sept

 

 

Civil Emergency Message

MTC035-073-301730-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
ENTER NAME OF AGENCY REQUESTING PRODUCT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT SUN SEP 29 2019

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF PONDERA
COUNTY DISASTER AND EMERGENCY SERVICES AND THE BLACKFEET NATION
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.

AS OF 1130 AM ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29, PONDERA COUNTY DISASTER AND
EMERGENCY SERVICES AND THE BLACKFEET NATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
CENTER HAS STATED ROADS ARE DANGEROUS AND REQUESTED LIMITED TRAVEL
TO EMERGENCY VEHICLES ONLY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

 
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We'll have a High of 96* on this last day of September.

October begins with a High forecast of 97*. Ugh.

 

Our first cool front won't make it until next Sunday.

We should see 89* this coming Sunday, then wake to low 60's!

Several days in the low 80's with low 60's morning. Rain in the forecast as well.

 

Bring it, Baby! Bring - it - on !!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The current temperature here at my house is now 57. While the official high here at GR yesterday was a reported 61 (just before midnight) it did not get out of the 50's here at my hose and has been 56 or 57 since yesterday afternoon. it is now just 66 in the house.

That's a little too chilly in the house for this thin blooded Texan!

But I'm so glad to see the heat break.

 

I thought we would see an early Fall and more rain this late summer, but woah, missed that bus!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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27F was the low in Ely,MN Saturday AM. You probably were not too far away as the Ely airport is also on the South side.

Saturday morning I had a forecast low of 30, but only got to 38. Clouds moved in during the night. Places in northern Minnesota that stayed clear had a freeze. Obviously Ely stayed clear.

 

On another note, it can't seem to stop raining around here. Over 7.5" the last 3 weeks. Some spots near me measured 7"+ in 24 hours on Sept 20-21 and stories of 9"+ going around from that day/night.

If it were June the warm air and heart of the growing season would help dry things up. It being late September drying things up is a slow process dependant on clay soils that absorb slowly and gravity drainage in this flat area. Farmers might need the ground to freeze to harvest wheat and soybeans around here.

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Currently 57F w cloudy skies. Highs are projected to be in the mid 70s today and mid 80s tomorrow. Then, Autumn returns by late week..

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Still cloudy and temps holding at 63F. Looks like that WF has not made through yet.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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For several days, this heavy rain band was predicted to be centered right through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  Now it's yet another on-the-edge event.  Earlier this month Dubuque received 5" of rain in one night.  Even though it has been raining all month here as well, it has taken all month to get 5" in my yard.

 

James is in a great spot for heavy rain.

 

EFtVIv2WoAAVY_a.jpg

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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EFtVIv2WoAAVY_a.jpg

 

Good, let's keep it NW of here this go-round

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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For several days, this heavy rain band was predicted to be centered right through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Now it's yet another on-the-edge event. Earlier this month Dubuque received 5" of rain in one night. Even though it has been raining all month here as well, it has taken all month to get 5" in my yard.

 

James is in a great spot for heavy rain.

 

EFtVIv2WoAAVY_a.jpg

Hope you guys score bc I don’t need or want the rains! It’s crazy wet for late Sept standards around here. Grass is so lush and green. After these couple summery days, it’s going to grow like weeds.

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We just hit 91 with Dew in the low 60's, so it isn't terrible outside.  Cold front is to my northwest.  Rain and t storms ramp up this evening through tomorrow evening.  Tomorrows forecast has falling temps all day.  Looks like 30's by Thursday morning.  Forecasters aren't calling for frost.  

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For several days, this heavy rain band was predicted to be centered right through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  Now it's yet another on-the-edge event.  Earlier this month Dubuque received 5" of rain in one night.  Even though it has been raining all month here as well, it has taken all month to get 5" in my yard.

 

James is in a great spot for heavy rain.

 

EFtVIv2WoAAVY_a.jpg

The Euro this afternoon appears to have shifted the heaver rains back into the Cedar Rapids area. It has 2-2.5" of rain in the Cedar Rapids area. 

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30 to 90+   Even in spring that's not an every day occurrence, not @ 3 pm

 

20190930 3pm temps.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Pretty crazy forecast discussion from OAX this afternoon. FFW with potential up to 5" of rain or more by Wednesday morning.

 

The Gulf/tropical moisture available is above the climate records
for early October; above 2". Some of the model precipitable water
values in southeast Nebraska exceed 2.5". NAEFS show some 3.5 to 6
standard deviations related to PW and water vapor influx compared
to the climate normals. The combination of the slow moving front,
favorable thickness diffluence that promote back- building of
storms, warm cloud depths in excess of 4km that promote highly
efficient storms all favor heavy rainfall. Much of the area is in
the moderate category for excessive rainfall and we have a flash
flood watch in effect until Wednesday morning. Current rainfall
amounts are in the 1 to 3 inch range and we can expect some 1 to 2
inch per hour rates, thus 5+ inches in spots is possible. Some of
the models hint at a mesolow tracking northeast along the front
Tuesday afternoon. Features like this can quickly increase
rainfall rates.

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