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September 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Absolutely gorgeous outside. Deep blue skies and warm temps. Readings are in the 70s(72F) ,along w a sultry dew of 70F. Hello Summer!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Euro this afternoon appears to have shifted the heaver rains back into the Cedar Rapids area. It has 2-2.5" of rain in the Cedar Rapids area. 

 

The HRRR is just getting into range.  It has heavier rain farther southeast as well, although it has a sharp gradient... from 0 in Iowa City to 2-4" in Vinton.  The HRRR and 3k NAM both have some Tuesday morning activity getting into east-central Iowa.  Maybe that stuff can tug the front a bit more south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Currently partly cloudy and mild w temps at 68F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Severe Thunderstorm in NE producing tennis ball sized hail. amazing for the last day of Sept.

  SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 700 PM CDT, tennis ball           sized hail was reported 6 miles northwest of Rockville.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Believe it will be 3rd warmest Sept on record here at DSM. ( I knew it was warm, but surprised me how far up the chart it will be).

 

39.32" total precip this year. A full 10" ahead of normal and on pace for top 5 wettest years on record. Not looking forward to the upcoming rain as ground is nearly saturated and expecting some basement wet spots.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Growing line of storms headed into the west metro. Growing in size and intensity. Heat index still 90F at 6:35pm.

 

I think you said you live in northern St. Paul?  If so, the storms appear to be splitting around you.  The southern metro cell looks pretty potent.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I think you said you live in northern St. Paul? If so, the storms appear to be splitting around you. The southern metro cell looks pretty potent.

Yep I’m 4 mi north of downtown St Paul. Best cells going north and south at the moment. Steady rain and a good light show though. That south cell is trying to expand north. We’ll see if it gets here in time.

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Yep I’m 4 mi north of downtown St Paul. Best cells going north and south at the moment. Steady rain and a good light show though. That south cell is trying to expand north. We’ll see if it gets here in time.

 

Rain, rain...and more rain...lots of it.  That's what this storm cell is pretty much producing in my neck of the woods aside from a good lightning show and light rumbling of thunder.  No gusty winds or hail, which I'm ok with.  But man, am I getting tired of this rain!  Last night's storm was quite impressive though, especially for lightning and thunder! It was probably one of the the best from this season so far. Kind of concerned about our cabin though.  They were in the flood warning this morning, so hoping boats on the lift didn't sink or float away like 2012!

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Rain, rain...and more rain...lots of it.  That's what this storm cell is pretty much producing in my neck of the woods aside from a good lightning show and light rumbling of thunder.  No gusty winds or hail, which I'm ok with.  But man, am I getting tired of this rain!  Last night's storm was quite impressive though especially, for lightning and thunder! It was probably one of the the best from this season so far. Kind of concerned about our cabin though.  They were in the flood warning this morning, so hoping boats on the lift didn't sink or float away like 2012!

Yeah this summer has been a constant rainstorm it feels like. Last time I checked about 2 weeks ago we were nearly 11” above normal on precipitation for the year. I’m looking forward to some cool, dry weather for a bit. Although the dry part might not happen. A decent chance of rain for the next few days. The storms last night were rocking here too.

 

Good luck with the cabin. Where’s that located?

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I like how some of the CAMS and global models have shifted the heavy stuff southeast with the jackpot again from sw. to east central Iowa. The Euro isn’t that great yet. CR. could really get clobbered according to some models. From my county on to the northwest is now included in a flash flood watch. Looking like I’m going to be right on the edge and it might be a deluge or not. It’s looking interesting including a severe threat. It’s very wet here and we don’t need rain right now, but as a storm enthusiast I’m looking forward to seeing how this evolves and hoping I can score a good strong storm.

 

Still tropical-like here today. Yesterday I had highs of 87°/75° with a max heat index of 95° !

https://www.weather.gov/dmx/dsshydro

 

DVN doesn’t sound to optimistic though for rainfall because of the warm air aloft and EML. Hopefully the front doesn’t stall to the north to far.

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Yeah this summer has been a constant rainstorm it feels like. Last time I checked about 2 weeks ago we were nearly 11” above normal on precipitation for the year. I’m looking forward to some cool, dry weather for a bit. Although the dry part might not happen. A decent chance of rain for the next few days. The storms last night were rocking here too.

 

Good luck with the cabin. Where’s that located?

 

Just west of Moose Lake about 20 miles in Cromwell.  I know the Soo Line trail got beat pretty hard around Moose Lake and washed out in quite a few areas. Hoping our logging road we take to go hunting didn't get washed out too bad, but I'm thinking it did in areas as well. 

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My September stats from my backyard:

 

Average low: 62.6

Average hi: 83.5

Last I saw we were running 7 degrees above normal, so sure that's going to be close to a record/top 10 etc.

Coldest low: 48.0 (28th)

Warmest hi: 93.9 (15th)

Rainfall: 8.43" ***** disclaimer: my wireless rain gauge has been running "hot". Can't figure out what the problem is... I have a Stratus tube rain gauge that is next to it and I try to note what that shows on each event. Based on that my total would be closer to about 6". Still an impressive total.

Had our first tornado watch of the year on the 24th. Had my first severe tstorm of the year with 60 mph winds and some tree damage on the 10th. Also had a severe tstorm watch (21st) and 2 flood watches and a flash flood warning (19th).

What a crazy month!

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My September stats from my backyard:

 

Average low: 62.6

Average hi: 83.5

Last I saw we were running 7 degrees above normal, so sure that's going to be close to a record/top 10 etc.

Coldest low: 48.0 (28th)

Warmest hi: 93.9 (15th)

Rainfall: 8.43" ***** disclaimer: my wireless rain gauge has been running "hot". Can't figure out what the problem is... I have a Stratus tube rain gauge that is next to it and I try to note what that shows on each event. Based on that my total would be closer to about 6". Still an impressive total.

Had our first tornado watch of the year on the 24th. Had my first severe tstorm of the year with 60 mph winds and some tree damage on the 10th. Also had a severe tstorm watch (21st) and 2 flood watches and a flash flood warning (19th).

What a crazy month!

Yeah I don’t trust electronic rain gauges. They can be very accurate for awhile and also quite ‘off’. I still use one and like it to show when, how fast, and how much, but I always have other gauges out for backup in case it acts up. What I really like about mine is I can calibrate it to make it show what my other gauges read. Also can edit amounts on the wireless console.
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Yeah I don’t trust electronic rain gauges. They can be very accurate for awhile and also quite ‘off’. I still use one and like it to show when, how fast, and how much, but I always have other gauges out for backup in case it acts up. What I really like about mine is I can calibrate it to make it show what my other gauges read. Also can edit amounts on the wireless console.

It's been pretty disappointing to have these issues. I have an Ambient weather station and the wireless rain gauge was one of the things I really liked bc I wanted to get electronic records of rates and totals, etc. I only got this weather station last November, so this is the first warm season I've had to use it to measure rain and it's been wrong the entire time.

I've been dealing with Ambient and they keep telling me to check the base and rain bucket for dirt or spider webs, and to make sure everything is level. They also say it could be caused by vibrations, but it's sturdy, and if there's vibrations that are made this easy and are strong enough to tip the bucket than that is their fault.

I put up with the issue all summer and finally took down the weather station last week and sure enough there was some dirt inside the bucket. I cleaned it out, hopeful that was the cause, but the very next rainfall we had, it said I had 7"/hr rainfall rates for a brief period and gave me a total of 1.2" of rain when it only rained .43"!! You can calibrate these gauges so I was keeping track to see how much I should adjust it but there hasn't been a specific "pattern" on how much it is off each time.

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My Davis station is pretty trustworthy and accurate most of the time. I’m probably just to particular. But both new stations I bought over the years were factory calibrated a little low it seems compared to my manual gauges, so I turned them up a hair to match my 4” diameter cocorahs style gauges.

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Overall, finished September with an avg High of 86. While in the top of the last 20 years of Septembers, it was on par with a few good late autumns/winters down the road and one bad one. 2000-87°, 2002 and 2013-86° and 2016, (the bad year) was 86° as well.

 

Lowest temp 64°. Avg lowest temp for month °69

 

There have been years that have recorded 105°to open September here and bounced on the extremes thereafter but no extremes were even grazed in the overall category of total heat, nor the cold categories. Rainfall was totaled at 6.26 (or within 10ths, if I'm not exact there) so that makes for one of the wettest overall Septembers of the last 25 years. Interesting month to "feel" so hot, be so wet and still never break a record.

 

Just goes to show how important it is to look at data in comparison to our memories. Not much different in overall temperatures than the last 3 Septembers.

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My Davis station is pretty trustworthy and accurate most of the time. I’m probably just to particular. But both new stations I bought over the years were factory calibrated a little low it seems compared to my manual gauges, so I turned them up a hair to match my 4” diameter cocorahs style gauges.

I would have LOVED to have bought a Davis station, but wasn't in the budget (according to the wife :D)

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ORD's mean temp ended up being 69.4 which places it at the #2 spot of warmest Septembers.  Interestingly, it ties 2017 in the #2 spot but 2017 had many more 90's which leads me to believe overnight lows really skewed temps this month.  2016 holds as the warmest Sept on record by just 0.2 of a degree (69.6).

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An odd stat but 63° for the lowest recorded temperature of the month of September and 91° for the highest temperature makes for the smallest spread of any September here since at least 1997.

 

That's a true testament to how much humidity plays a role in temperature stabilization at lower latitudes. I'd bet over 90 percent of Septembers here record a temperature lower than 50°. Unusual month.

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ORD's mean temp ended up being 69.4 which places it at the #2 spot of warmest Septembers.  Interestingly, it ties 2017 in the #2 spot but 2017 had many more 90's which leads me to believe overnight lows really skewed temps this month.  2016 holds as the warmest Sept on record by just 0.2 of a degree (69.6).

 

Everybody's been acting like our warm September was unheard of. More like the new norm. 3 of last 4 hold top position for all-time warmest?? That IS the story imho. And yes, these warm nights (78F at midnight on 10/2 is obscene) seem to be a fixture of our era. The one index that "may" have a correllation with our former era of colder morning lows is the AMO. It was strongly in it's NEG phase during the 70's and it's not gotten back to that since. (just one theory as to why we no longer seem to have cold HP's dropping down on us as in era's past)  :unsure:  :wacko:  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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