September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Iowawx]

Outflow got here around 5:00pm. Feels good. Two severe warned cells to my west and southwest.

 

WPC 7 day QPF has a lollipop over or near Kansas City. Rainfall looks to be almost as heavy in Mo. as in east Tx!

It would be great eastern Iowa could be under that heavy rain. We could really use it. 

[james1976]

I'm in the clear right now so I'm gonna mow the lawn. Looks like some boomers later tonight. Flood Watch just to my west. Saturday setup still looks pretty intriguing!

[james1976]

I just got put in a Flash Flood Watch 5mins ago from the Des Moines NWS!

[Hawkeye]

Saturday setup still looks pretty intriguing!

 

I don't know what to expect Saturday/night.  The latest UK and Euro clobber some locations to the southwest, but barely drop anything here.

[james1976]

GFS is trying to get interesting toward the end of the month and beginning of October. Long range obviously...

[jaster220]

Outflow got here around 5:00pm. Feels good. Two severe warned cells to my west and southwest.

Edit: Actually those storms really weakened already.

 

WPC 7 day QPF has a lollipop over or near Kansas City. Rainfall looks to be almost as heavy in Mo. as in east Tx!

 

(wrong thd, ikr) but cannot help but think how that looks like a snowfall map for GHD1 

[Stormy]

Some boomers seem to be gathering some steam in eastern Nebraska now. The storms in eastern Iowa really dissipated once the sun set.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow! I have not been on here in forever. Who's ready for another exciting winter coming up?!

[Hawkeye]

Well, Omaha is getting hit pretty good this morning.  Unfortunately, it appears the evening HRRR runs were right about the rain band getting stuck over northern Iowa and making little progress south.  The 3k NAM consistently dove this line south through Iowa, with the line reaching CR by around 6am.  That ain't happening.

[Tom]

By the end of this month, the 00z GFS is predicting plenty of western North American snowfall.  Overall, the Northern Hemisphere is experiencing a fast start into the cold season with many places (China, Sweden, Russia) all seeing very early snowfall.  #winteriscoming

 

 

The big storm on the calendar later this month is poised to dump some heavy snows across the N Rockies.  A banner year is in the works for the central/northern Rockies.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

By the end of this month, the 00z GFS is predicting plenty of western North American snowfall.  Overall, the Northern Hemisphere is experiencing a fast start into the cold season with many places (China, Sweden, Russia) all seeing very early snowfall.  #winteriscoming

 

 

The big storm on the calendar later this month is poised to dump some heavy snows across the N Rockies.  A banner year is in the works for the central/northern Rockies.

 

 

 

 

I think it will be pretty brutal when it does finally get down to our latitudes. We've had plenty of below normal months and other regions around the N. Hemi have had unusually cold periods (for their respective regions). 

[Hawkeye]

Well, Omaha is getting hit pretty good this morning.

 

1.5-3" has fallen across the Omaha area.

[East Dubzz]

I had 0.75" of rain in my gauge this morning. Was wondering if that was a mistake, but my parents' gauge also picked up 0.87", so I feel more confident in that now. Doesn't totally surprise me, I guess. It was absolutely pouring there for a while this morning.

 

And it looks like more is on the way..

[Niko]

Currently sunny skies w temps at 62F. Absolutely gorgeous outside.

[East Dubzz]

I had 0.75" of rain in my gauge this morning. Was wondering if that was a mistake, but my parents' gauge also picked up 0.87", so I feel more confident in that now. Doesn't totally surprise me, I guess. It was absolutely pouring there for a while this morning.

 

And it looks like more is on the way..

 

Coming down real good again. Parents' gauge is already up to 1.30" for the day. 

[Iowawx]

Massive bust in Cedar Rapids... Again. We aren't going to get any rain today. 

[Andie]

Some areas in SE Texas received 4 ft. of rain. This is one of the worst Tropical storms they've had. All of east Texas will receive heavy rain.

The DFW area is a bit west to get the heavy stuff, but we'll receive up to an inch through Friday.

Temps will drop into the high 80's.

 

It's an ugly storm system.

[Hawkeye]

It appears the CR/IC area may just get some scattered showers or sprinkles this morning.  This weekend much of the rain may be south.  

 

It's official... KGAN has declined to renew Terry Swails' contract after five years.  Swails suggests they've even eliminated the chief met position at the station.  He must make quite a good salary.  His last three employers declined to extend his contract.  Some of these smallers market stations just don't want to put a bunch of money into one met position.  They could probably hire a few young, inexperienced mets with that money.

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids now has had 9 days in a row of above average temperatures and today will be the 10^th. Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 81/56. The over night low at GRR was 58, the low here at my house was 56. For today the average H/L is 72/51. The record high is 91 set in 1908 the record low is 36 set in 1979. The warmest minimum is 68 set in 1965 and the coldest maximum is 54 set in 1991. Last year the H/L was 79/58

[Niko]

Looks like it cools off next week, but not by much. Temps remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s for highs right after the CF rolls on through late Sunday into Monday.

 

Lets not forget TS Jerry. It is gaining strength in the Atlantic Ocean.

[james1976]

Dubuque getting hammered again

[Niko]

 

Big storms seem to be heading for the Chicago area as shown above. Hopefully they can make the trip IMBY by Sunday. They look intense!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Ended up with 2.55" of rain at my place from last night's storms. Stormed pretty much from about 330a-700a. Had some pretty intense lightning at times too. I remember rolling over in bed and kind of glancing out the window right when a lightning bolt struck. It was so close there was the immediate house shaking boom and the color of the lightning was more yellow than white.

Reports of 6-8" of rain a few counties north of here as well with some flooding. A creek that I drove over on my way to work is normally a few feet wide and probably 1-2 feet deep was nearly up to the bottom of the bridge this morning. I'm guessing it's up 10 feet at least from all the water draining down from the counties north of us.

 

Edit: I found a river gauge measurement that shows it was running at about 3 feet deep and has gone all the way up to 19.92 feet! Flood stage is 23.5 feet. It hit 25.6 feet in March when we had all the bad flooding...

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=oax&gage=ohan1

[CentralNebWeather]

We would have sure have liked some of that rain in Eastern Nebraska.  Getting awfully dry in town with the very warm and windy temps that have turned some grass from green to yellow.  I had to start watering the yard last night.  Very hard on the top.  Hopefully the chances in the next few days materialize.  

[East Dubzz]

Up to 2" on the day. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Here's the text output of that river gauge I shared above. Crazy to see how fast it rose once it really started raining!

For example from 645a-655a it rose nearly 2 feet and from 645a-745a it rose 7 feet!

 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph_to_xml.php?gage=ohan1&output=tabular

[Hawkeye]

The rain is trying to avoid CR this morning.  The outflow has pushed well southeast, but now more concentrated rain has developed west and is lifting nw of CR again.

[CentralNebWeather]

Really hoping that today is our last day we are pushing 90 this year.  NWS Hastings said it has been a very strange year with how long the heat and especially high dews have lingered into Sept.  We are again close to a 70 Dew at 11 AM as we are getting to the 3rd week of September.  Today we should be 75 and 48 for averages.  

[Minny_Weather]

Once again, my old area in Houston (Kingwood) has flooded. Since Harvey, the river has risen and it now floods at even the smallest rain events.

 

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
AT THE REQUEST OF HARRIS...MONTGOMERY...LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS
OEM...
Relayed by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
909 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF
HARRIS...MONTGOMERY...LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS OFFICES OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT....

DUE TO FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN NORTHEAST HARRIS COUNTY
INCLUDING KINGWOOD AND HUMBLE, MONTGOMERY COUNTY, LIBERTY COUNTY
AND CHAMBERS COUNTY, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REQUEST RESIDENTS TO
STAY PUT AND SHELTER IN PLACE. DO NOT VENTURE ON TO ANY ROADS IN
THESE AREAS. PEOPLE TRAVELLING ON AREA HIGHWAYS NEED TO AVOID THIS
AREA AND CHANGE TRAVEL PLANS. IF YOU ARE TRAPPED IN YOUR HOUSE
DUE TO FLOODING CALL EMERGENCY PERSONEL FOR EVACUATION RESCUE.

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1057 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY,
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS, SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY, AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS
COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in League City has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 1054 AM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding
occuring in the warned area due to persistent heavy rain. Numerous
road closures, water rescues, and structural flooding. Flash
flooding is already occurring. Residents are urged to stay put and
do not venture out on roadways.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY,
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS, SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY, AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS
COUNTIES. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND NOW!

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Humble, Spring, Kingwood, Barrett, Crosby, northern Mont Belvieu,
Patton Village, Roman Forest, Woodbranch, Old River-Winfree, Plum
Grove, Woodloch, Atascocita, Lake Houston, Porter Heights, New
Caney and Porter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

[Hawkeye]

*sigh*  The last cell this morning is mostly hitting the north side of CR.  I'm getting very little.

[Iowawx]

Pouring here now. Pretty good thunder and lightning as well. 

[Andie]

Houston and parts east and northeast are really struggling. Many evacuations, even hospitals are being evacuated. 2' of rain in Houston, more east and northeast. Like Dorian, it hasn't moved fast.

 

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Looks like one more little round of rain before it ends... can't say I saw this coming. 

[Bryan1117]

1.5-3" has fallen across the Omaha area.

Picked up a little over 2 inches of rain this morning in my backyard from the thunderstorm complex that impacted Eastern Nebraska. The rainfall rates were impressive early this morning around here with the storms, on the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times.

 

The heavy rainfall experienced this morning will only exacerbate the flooding issues along the Missouri River this week, however the moisture was much needed in my backyard. It’s been feast or famine lately, with not much in between.

[Niko]

Currently sunny and 73F. Spectacular day!

[East Dubzz]

Looks like we are going to finish the day with 2.22", per my parents' rain gauge. What a soaker, and lasted longer than I originally expected. 

[Hawkeye]

The latest Euro is just a bit amplified by day 10.

 

[james1976]

The latest Euro is just a bit amplified by day 10.

 

Biggest ridge ever

[CentralNebWeather]

Just checked current conditions, we are at 89 with a 67 dew and heat index of 92.  Keep hoping next week is cooler but they keep increasing temps that were once supposed to be in the 70's, are now forecasted to be low 80's.  Maybe 10 days from now a definitive cool shot.  We'll see.

[OKwx2k4]

Biggest ridge ever

Yep

Hate is not a strong enough word for that image. Only hope is that it gets parked over either ocean somewhere down the line or I'm screwed.