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September 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Read where they issued a civil emergency. Tough times there. Lots of water.

It's a rough go south and is moving slow. Sitting over Houston. I've had overcast skies 90% of the day. A little sun breaking out right now but they've upgraded our rain tonight to 50% chance. A 1/2" is likely all I'll get this far North and West.

 

Currently 84*

DP 69*

Humidity 59%

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1DE55628-E7C5-495F-99DD-96AE8EDC786C.jpeg
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I just was awakened by some thunder from storms that are popping up. Maybe some of the CAMS will be right after all. I think DVN did mention that this is a nowcast event. First they sounded optimistic that storms will fire once again tonight, then they backed off from that idea since the HRRR was backing off. I hope I can get something once. I'm tired of storms always dying off just as they reach my area and endIng up with just a trace or a few hundredths, as happened the previous two days and to often to count this summer!

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It's a rough go south and is moving slow. Sitting over Houston. I've had overcast skies 90% of the day. A little sun breaking out right now but they've upgraded our rain tonight to 50% chance. A 1/2" is likely all I'll get this far North and West.

 

Currently 84*

DP 69*

Humidity 59%

Wow, in light of the present weather we've experienced down on this end of the forum, that's a beautiful afternoon. At least its below 90° anyway.

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It was a beautiful even yesterday to grill some sausages on the grill over a fire...then it was bonfire time....

You had quite the bonfire going and it looks like you're burning pallets! (Bottom photo) Also it doesn't appear like you're in Chicago. Probably wouldn't be room for a bonfire there, or at least not allowed! I'm guessing you're at a friends place.

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@ Clinton, looks like your area (including KC) up into the lower lakes region is in a good position to get some real heavy rains.  The 00z Euro is showing 4"+ from N MO/SE IA/N IL through Mon am.  Some spots may pick up 7"+ if the storms end up training over the same areas with torrential rains.

 

Meanwhile, Winter is looking to make an abrupt visit down into the Lower 48 across the N Rockies later next weekend as the pattern will lambaste the mountains with FEET of snow.  All the global models are latching onto the late month system that I've been on the look out for.  Historic snowfall may be in the cards for this region.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_43.png

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You had quite the bonfire going and it looks like you're burning pallets! Also it doesn't appear like you're in Chicago. Probably wouldn't be room for a bonfire there, or at least not allowed! I'm guessing you're at a friends place.

Yes, I was at my sisters place not far from where I live.  Her neighbors are not nosy and don't mind at all when we have bon fires like these.

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I'm sorry Tom, but I don't like that outlook for Texas. Can I have another one ?!
Drier and Warmer than average. Really not wanted around here.



***** Don't Forget To Post Your Rain Totals in the Separate Thread as We Near the Close of 2019 *****S
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2044-2019-rain-totals-for-great-lakes-great-plains/

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Currently at 66F w beautiful sunny skies. It will be getting increasingly humid as well, especially on the weekend. Temps will be in the 80s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's starting to look possible that Lincoln will end the month without any temperatures below 50, which has never happened before. It could be worse. I could be back in Memphis where models are starting to show upper 90s for the end of September into October, which is really bad even for there. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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It's starting to look possible that Lincoln will end the month without any temperatures below 50, which has never happened before. It could be worse. I could be back in Memphis where models are starting to show upper 90s for the end of September into October, which is really bad even for there. 

Wow.  I think here we may have officially gotten down to 48 or 49 one night.  What an odd month and unfortunately very warm.

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More trees are now starting to show some color. I don't think last year any colors were showing up at this time.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The H/L yesterday at GRR was 84/57 that 84 is tied for the 14th warmest September 19th in Grand Rapids history. The overnight low at GRR was 61 if it stays above 61 until midnight that will make September 19th 2019 the 16th warmest minimum for the date.  For today the average H/L is 71/51 the record high is 90 set in 1931 and the record low is 33 set in 1956. The warmest minimum for today is 69 set in 1978 and the coldest maximum is 54 set in 1927. Last year the H/L was 83/65.

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I received only 0.07" early this morning as the cells mostly went around me.  Once the line moved off to the northeast a bit, it stalled and continues to bubble up.  We've kinda been on the edge of everything this month, unable to get anything too heavy.

 

I'm having trouble being optimistic about this weekend.  Models are really wanting to keep much of the rain south and east of Cedar Rapids... even though the front will be well to the west... because of course.  If we can get an inch that would be a win.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@ Clinton, looks like your area (including KC) up into the lower lakes region is in a good position to get some real heavy rains.  The 00z Euro is showing 4"+ from N MO/SE IA/N IL through Mon am.  Some spots may pick up 7"+ if the storms end up training over the same areas with torrential rains.

 

Meanwhile, Winter is looking to make an abrupt visit down into the Lower 48 across the N Rockies later next weekend as the pattern will lambaste the mountains with FEET of snow.  All the global models are latching onto the late month system that I've been on the look out for.  Historic snowfall may be in the cards for this region.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_43.png

We have a flash flood watch through the weekend, looking like a good soaker.  Could next weekend be the beginning of the new LRC?  I think so.

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We have a flash flood watch through the weekend, looking like a good soaker.  Could next weekend be the beginning of the new LRC?  I think so.

Might be a bit early for the new LRC pattern, but could actually start seeing some bigger differences late month and esp the opening days of October.

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Looks like Sunday into Monday brings my next chance of rain and then thereafter t'stm activity as warm air stays put. It gets a little cooler at the beginning of the week, but temps rise in the mid to upper 70s later on.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This morning's Euro lifted this weekend's heavy rain (2-4+") up through east-central Iowa, but I'm not buying that.  The 3k NAM and WPC keep the heaviest stuff southeast.  The Euro lifts a wave of general rain through the area Sunday, but the NAM keeps all the precip well south with the heavy storms, which is the way it typically works.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We h it 97* today with humidity a surprising 39%  Windy

 

A line of thunderstorms are NW of the DFW area stretching back from the Panhandle to Arkansas, however it's moving NE. With only a 30% chance of rain, I doubt we"ll catch any action.  Imelda has fallen apart and now it's back to early fall weather.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It's looking like the leaves on the trees are turning color here a week eariler then they did last year. It's crazy how much they have turned just within this last week!  One of our maples is dropping quite a bit of leaves already, our driveway where it's located is pretty well covered in them.

 

Today compared to 2018 and 2017:

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/fall_colors/compare.html

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Gorgeous evening w clear skies and warm conditions. Back to dews again w current (D) at 68F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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DMX is now going with above normal temps next week and is saying model output is too cool. Man I'm sick of it. September is turning out to be more summer like than what summer actually was. I guess nature always balances its way out.

What is your average H/L temp for this time of the yr

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This morning's Euro lifted this weekend's heavy rain (2-4+") up through east-central Iowa, but I'm not buying that.  The 3k NAM and WPC keep the heaviest stuff southeast.  The Euro lifts a wave of general rain through the area Sunday, but the NAM keeps all the precip well south with the heavy storms, which is the way it typically works.

I hope that happens. After all, Cedar Rapids is still in a moderate drought which just won't go away. Things are still dry here. I. hope for at least an inch which shouldn't be too much to ask for. Hopefully everything can come together just right for heavy rain here. 

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CPC eyeing the end of month system:

 

 

hazards_d8_14_contours for 9-28 to 10-4.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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