September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Currently at 72F and mostly cloudy skies. A decent amt of rain could be in my forecast for later today and especially at night.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.72" overnight from the general rain.  If the rest of the rain shield holds together I may be able to hit an inch.

[Iowawx]

I picked up 0.72" overnight from the general rain. If the rest of the rain shield holds together I may be able to hit an inch.

I am at 0.82” of rain so far. I think we should get over an inch. There is a big blob of rain in western/central Iowa that is moving towards eastern Iowa.

[Niko]

It starts cooling off significantly in early October as highs will likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

[Niko]

Jaster- looks like you might be in for quite a bit of rainfall today.

[jaster220]

Currently at 72F and mostly cloudy skies. A decent amt of rain could be in my forecast for later today and especially at night.

 

Jaster- looks like you might be in for quite a bit of rainfall today.

 

Yeah, so I hurried up and cut my grass in the hottest part of the day Saturday because NWS had upped my rainfall chances to 80% Heavy Rain for last night. What did I get? ..a ground dampening. Meanwhile, a bunch of heavy showers with high rates fired off all day over your way and nothing around here. Different event-same ol story as most of this summer. 

 

Seems like this front's been hung-up west of here for days and days. Now I see this morning that NMI has Flood Watch instead of SMI.     Tbh, my confidence in any forecast on this actually hitting mby is very low at the moment. After dancing around west of here for days, it'll prolly move thru here with a brief shower and 1/4" total of liquid..

[Niko]

Yeah, so I hurried up and cut my grass in the hottest part of the day Saturday because NWS had upped my rainfall chances to 80% Heavy Rain for last night. What did I get? ..a ground dampening. Meanwhile, a bunch of heavy showers with high rates fired off all day over your way and nothing around here. Different event-same ol story as most of this summer. 

 

Seems like this front's been hung-up west of here for days and days. Now I see this morning that NMI has Flood Watch instead of SMI.     Tbh, my confidence in any forecast on this actually hitting mby is very low at the moment. After dancing around west of here for days, it'll prolly move thru here with a brief shower and 1/4" total of liquid..

what else is knew w your weather this Summer eh.....Yesterday outta nowhere, a pop up torrential dowpour came on through and soaked my area for a good 10 minutes b4 ending. Lets see how lata tanite goes w this front.

[Niko]

[Niko]

Break out those Bermuda Shorts cuz Summer wants to hang around based the the above map.......

[james1976]

This sounds gross:

 

Looking into the extended forecast period, all signs point to a

return of unseasonably warm and humid weather from the end of the

coming week into the beginning of the following week. At 500 mb,

the trough responsible for the midweek cool front will swing

quickly eastward away from the region, while a series of northern

stream shortwaves coming ashore over the Pacific northwest coast

will quickly carve out a large western U.S. trough by Friday. From

then onward, through the foreseeable future, a blocking pattern

will set up with the persistent, large trough dominating the

western states and a large, hot high pressure system over the

southeastern U.S. slowly retrograding westward and dominating the

southern states through at least the early portion of the first

week of October. Within this steady pattern Iowa will reside

beneath persistent southwesterly flow aloft, supporting warm,

humid weather with intermittent chances for rain and storms

particularly as any shortwave impulses move through the

southwesterly flow. It appears summer is not yet quite over, and

may actually extend its grip into the first days of October.

[bud2380]

I’m with Sparky. I love this warm weather. I’ll never complain about warm weather in September or October. Even November for that matter. This is great. Bring it on. It’s not gonna snow here anytime soon anyways so may as well enjoy the shorts weather as long as you can.

[Niko]

I’m with Sparky. I love this warm weather. I’ll never complain about warm weather in September or October. Even November for that matter. This is great. Bring it on. It’s not gonna snow here anytime soon anyways so may as well enjoy the shorts weather as long as you can.

I agree. Might as well enjoy this warmth b4 the cold stuff arrives for good.

[Bryan1117]

Finished with a storm total of 2.85 inches of rain in my backyard last night and this morning. After months of seemingly being missed in all directions, Mother Nature finally delivered the goods this past week.

 

That puts my 7-day rainfall total around 5 inches of rain for the current week, which is unusual in this region as September usually is a drier month as the seasons start to change. Things should really green back up around here the next few days.

[BrianJK]

I’m with Sparky. I love this warm weather. I’ll never complain about warm weather in September or October. Even November for that matter. This is great. Bring it on. It’s not gonna snow here anytime soon anyways so may as well enjoy the shorts weather as long as you can.

Bingo!

[jaster220]

Finished with a storm total of 2.85 inches of rain in my backyard last night and this morning. After months of seemingly being missed in all directions, Mother Nature finally delivered the goods this past week.

 

That puts my 7-day rainfall total around 5 inches of rain for the current week, which is unusual in this region as September usually is a drier month as the seasons start to change. Things should really green back up around here the next few days.

 

Nice to finally break out of that rut isn't it? 'grats on that!

[Niko]

Currently at 84F w mostly sunny skies. Dew is not that bad. At 63F attm. RF is at 86F though. Tbh, it feels very nice outside. I am hoping Ma Nature can squeeze out a few severe storms as the CF approaches eastward towards my area.

[Niko]

Finished with a storm total of 2.85 inches of rain in my backyard last night and this morning. After months of seemingly being missed in all directions, Mother Nature finally delivered the goods this past week.

 

That puts my 7-day rainfall total around 5 inches of rain for the current week, which is unusual in this region as September usually is a drier month as the seasons start to change. Things should really green back up around here the next few days.

Nice soaker there.

[james1976]

Temp has slowly fallen to 64. Coolest it's been in a long time including overnight lows.

[Iowawx]

Exactly 1.00" of rain here. HRRR has some additional showers developing later this afternoon so we still may add to that total. 

[Hawkeye]

1.08" of rain here.  Woo!  I made it.

 

The upcoming pattern has good potential for more rain.  The latest Euro has another several inches across the region through day 10, with much of that coming later in the period when the western trough slowly ejects eastward.

[CentralNebWeather]

If forecasts verify, we may be pushing potential 90 degree highs and record high minimums next weekend. This has to be a bad joke. The ridge of death looks to rear its ugly head yet again.

[OKwx2k4]

Off topic but the KC Chiefs and Mr. MVP Mahomes still look fantastic. Go Chiefs. An 11 win season is pretty much in the bag, in my opinion.

[OKwx2k4]

If you are looking for hope that the heat breaks, I have an autumn for you to walk through one day at a time on nws maps. Go from Sept 1, 2013 to Halloween 2013, then run the next 16 days of the GFS. I think a lot of us will be happy to see the similarities in real time.

 

I know and knew that I've seen this before.

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20131104.html

 

There is hope. The ridge can't last forever.

 

Then, start at September 1, 2002 and repeat.

[Tom]

Both the GFS/Euro are showing some subtle, yet significant changes in the longer range ushering some very chilly air into the Plains/Upper MW towards the end of the month.  We may see a very similar set up like we saw last year where there was a stout SER battling a major trough across the central CONUS.  Early taste of winter for the Dakotas???  The 12z Euro is showing day time highs in the 40's for a couple days across the Plains (NE on north) to close out the month.  The GFS is showing something similar but a tad later and not as potent.

 

@ CentralNeb, this may be the change you are looking for my friend.  The ensembles are starting to show a bleeding Canadian HP coming down out of Canada later in the month and to open up October.  This trend in more blocking would make sense if you are to use the BSR and follow where the warming is happening at 10mb.

 

Notice how the warmer colors develop across S/C Canada suggesting to look for HP in this region right around the time we flip into October.

 

[james1976]

Today has been nice. Overcast and mid to upper 60s. Wow. My sat-sun rain total is 0.97" so far

[Tom]

If you are looking for hope that the heat breaks, I have an autumn for you to walk through one day at a time on nws maps. Go from Sept 1, 2013 to Halloween 2013, then run the next 16 days of the GFS. I think a lot of us will be happy to see the similarities in real time.

 

I know and knew that I've seen this before.

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20131104.html

 

There is hope. The ridge can't last forever.

 

Then, start at September 1, 2002 and repeat.

 

Great site!  I'm going to bookmark this site for future referencing while using the LRC.  Thanks bud!  I must say, I think your onto something regarding the pattern both the GFS/EURO are showing to open up October as they are looking very similar to Oct '13.

[james1976]

Don't tease with that '13 talk!! Lol

[james1976]

Man I'm enjoying this break from the heat. Strolling around the backyard with a drink and taking in the fresh air. Currently 66 with a nice NW breeze and thick overcast. Might be a perfect evening for a bonfire!

[jaster220]

what else is new w your weather this Summer eh.....Yesterday outta nowhere, a pop up torrential dowpour came on through and soaked my area for a good 10 minutes b4 ending. Lets see how lata tanite goes w this front.

 

6 pm on Sunday and I'm STILL WAITING for my "rainy weekend" to show up. What a joke..

 

Oh, and 3rd 86F high in a row. Don't remember that being in my grid either

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

How's this event been at your place? Have you scored as much as expected? 

[Niko]

6 pm on Sunday and I'm STILL WAITING for my "rainy weekend" to show up. What a joke..

 

Oh, and 3rd 86F high in a row. Don't remember that being in my grid either

So am I amigo. This is a joke. To top it all off, looks like the precip on the western part of the state is fizzling out. I hardly think it makes the trip across MI towards MBY. Tbh, idk, I could be wrong, but I would not be surprised at all if I don't even get a drop of liquid.

[Niko]

Currently at a warm 84F under mostly cloudy skies. Its a tad humid as well, but nothing unbearable, not like what we encounter in July or Aug.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Picked up 2-3 inches of rain total last night! Nice day finally in the low 70s!

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

How's this event been at your place? Have you scored as much as expected?

It’s been alright, but not as heavy as was forecast. Still managed to pick up well over 1”. Some spots just north scored 2-3” total. I was expecting to see this evenings wave to be much stronger. Not gonna complain. I’ve had enough rain over the last week or so. Looking forward to more seasonal temps tomorrow and drier weather.

[Niko]

Radar looks a little more impressive. Lets see if it holds together.

[james1976]

Down to 61 now! Another quick light shower just moved through. Gonna throw some brats on the grill now. Love this weather.

[jaster220]

So am I amigo. This is a joke. To top it all off, looks like the precip on the western part of the state is fizzling out. I hardly think it makes the trip across MI towards MBY. Tbh, idk, I could be wrong, but I would not be surprised at all if I don't even get a drop of liquid.

 

  You posted that you already got 1 or 2 hvy showers yesterday. I've had nil

[Iowawx]

Another line of showers is moving into the Cedar Rapids area. My total so far today is 1.04" of rain. 

[Tom]

@Jaster, getting some real heavy rain now. This is what I thought we would have last night but it ended up NW of here. Needless to say, I’m content with what I’ve received from this event. Don’t need the flash flooding and neither do those who have been hit hard up north.

[Hawkeye]

Another line of showers is moving into the Cedar Rapids area. My total so far today is 1.04" of rain. 

 

The heavier cells lifted just barely north of me, so I just got a moderate shower.