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September 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Both the GFS/Euro are showing some subtle, yet significant changes in the longer range ushering some very chilly air into the Plains/Upper MW towards the end of the month. We may see a very similar set up like we saw last year where there was a stout SER battling a major trough across the central CONUS. Early taste of winter for the Dakotas??? The 12z Euro is showing day time highs in the 40's for a couple days across the Plains (NE on north) to close out the month. The GFS is showing something similar but a tad later and not as potent.

 

@ CentralNeb, this may be the change you are looking for my friend. The ensembles are starting to show a bleeding Canadian HP coming down out of Canada later in the month and to open up October. This trend in more blocking would make sense if you are to use the BSR and follow where the warming is happening at 10mb.

 

Notice how the warmer colors develop across S/C Canada suggesting to look for HP in this region right around the time we flip into October.

 

temp10anim.gif

Looks like it. Looking at forecast models things may really start cooling from here north and west by Monday the 30th. GFS even painting 30’s at night. However that is 10 days away, so much can change. At least there’s hope. Thanks for the great maps.

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@Jaster, getting some real heavy rain now. This is what I thought we would have last night but it ended up NW of here. Needless to say, I’m content with what I’ve received from this event. Don’t need the flash flooding and neither do those who have been hit hard up north.

 

I didn't need any type of flooding either ofc, but maps yesterday showing 1.5 to 2" and 80% Hvy Rain likely sounded good since we are still digging out of a serious deficit here. It has finally begun to rain (very lightly) here and the night is not over, but this is looking and feeling like yet another in a long string of busts this summer. 

 

My current grid-cast:  New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

My $$ is on the underlined amt, and that my snarky comment earlier was sadly accurate. This pattern can't die soon enough, I'm so over it. It's takes the fun out of this hobby when you sit on the sidelines game after game.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:huh:  You posted that you already got 1 or 2 hvy showers yesterday. I've had nil

True...just that the more rain I receive, the better for my lawn.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Cant believe at this hour, my temp is at 79F. Ironically, dew is at a comfortable level of 60F. Skies are cloudy.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Cant believe at this hour, my temp is at 79F. Ironically, dew is at a comfortable level of 60F. Skies are cloudy.

 

We've dropped to a much more comfortable 70F, with 0.01" reported at the airport. Would be nice if that serious blob up by GR could come this way. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We've dropped to a much more comfortable 70F, with 0.01" reported at the airport. Would be nice if that serious blob up by GR could come this way. 

I just saw the radar and cannot believe that just north of you, there is hvy rain and probably storms w that as well. Talk about not wanting to rain IYBY.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I will always complain about warmth any time after August and before April lol. This is getting ridiculous. We're looking at upper 80s here on October 1. Let's go, I look more attractive in a hoodie and jeans.

 

Once again, it looks like in 2 weeks we won't get cold, but we'll at least see more seasonable temps. God I hope so.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Welcome to Autumn!  At 2:50am cst, we entered the Fall equinox and the weather will feel certainly feel like Autumn.  We are expecting breezy winds out of the WNW today along sunny skies and temps in the low 70's.  #perfection

 

As for the "heavy rain" event this past weekend, local reports of 1.5-2.0'' were common, but nowhere near to the 3-4" that were expected.  Some spots up north did manage to get 2-3".

 

Not a bad 7-day...a trend to cooler around these parts???  It was only yesterday the models were showing 80's for next weekend.  Let's see if it holds.

 

 

EFIuLblXYAAoOG3.jpg

 

 

 

The season's strongest push of cooler air coming for those up north???  Widespread 40's look pretty good for our friends up north....this may just be a precursor for what is coming down the road.

 

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_51.png

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Check this out....after briefly flipping through the models this morning I was struck by the contrast of the pattern the CFSv2 is forecasting between Week 2 & 3.  One will quickly notice the pattern of this year's LRC which showcased the SER, Blocking and SW Flow.

 

wk1.wk2_20190922.z500.gif

 

 

 

 

For the Week 3 forecast, as the saying goes, "Out with the old, in with the new"...the time stamp for the Week 3 500mb map below is Oct 7th-13th (right when the new LRC starts)...there is that SW ridge I've felt that would be an exhibit of next year's LRC pattern.  Let's see if it holds bc its been showing some varying solutions of late.

 

wk3.wk4_20190922.z500.gif

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Welcome to first full day of Autumn Ya'll. It sure does feel that way w those angry clouds out there and that hidden deep blue sky. More leaves are also showing colors as well.  The warmth returns later in the week w temps near 80F.

 

Currently at 70F under partly sunny skies. Its a little breezy as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The H/L yesterday at GRR was 80/68. That 68 sets a new record minimum for the date. The official rain fall yesterday at GRR was 2.56”. Here at my house just NW of Grand Rapids I recorded just 1.43” so the rain was much heaver to my SE. For today the average H/L is 70/50 the record high was a hot 96 in 2017 and the record low is 28 set in 1974. The warmest minimum is 66 set in 2017. And the record coldest maximum is 49 set in 1928. Last year the H/L was 71/45.


 


The timing of yesterdays rain fall is one of the issues I have with the CoCoRaHS reporting times. For  CoCoRaHS the standard reporting time is 7 AM give or take but the NWS their daily report is from midnight to midnight so that yesterday my CoCoRaHS report was 0.35” for Saturday and then 1.08” for Sunday.  And the official report at GRR was 2.56” for Sunday and just a trace for Saturday.

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The H/L yesterday at GRR was 80/68. That 68 sets a new record minimum for the date. The official rain fall yesterday at GRR was 2.56”. Here at my house just NW of Grand Rapids I recorded just 1.43” so the rain was much heaver to my SE. For today the average H/L is 70/50 the record high was a hot 96 in 2017 and the record low is 28 set in 1974. The warmest minimum is 66 set in 2017. And the record coldest maximum is 49 set in 1928. Last year the H/L was 71/45.

 

The timing of yesterdays rain fall is one of the issues I have with the CoCoRaHS reporting times. For  CoCoRaHS the standard reporting time is 7 AM give or take but the NWS their daily report is from midnight to midnight so that yesterday my CoCoRaHS report was 0.35” for Saturday and then 1.08” for Sunday.  And the official report at GRR was 2.56” for Sunday and just a trace for Saturday.

 

I didn't get much rainfall from this CF last night. Much of the heavier precipitation was north of me.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I just saw the radar and cannot believe that just north of you, there is hvy rain and probably storms w that as well. Talk about not wanting to rain IYBY.

 

I didn't get much rainfall from this CF last night. Much of the heavier precipitation was north of me.

 

Airport reported a whopping 0.16" for this "heavy rain" event. At least it came after dark maximizing soak-in potential, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Airport reported a whopping 0.16" for this "heavy rain" event. At least it came after dark maximizing soak-in potential, lol

:lol: :wacko:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Man, it is very breezy outside. Got outta the gym and the wind almost took me and pushed me to the side. Winds are sustain at 18mph w gusts to 30. It is gorgeous outside. No dew to speak of (52F) and temps are in the middle 70s. Absolutely splendid!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yeah I've been noticing that. Another thing that I'm noticing is more and more cold air building in Canada.

There is finally a light at the end of the tunnel. It's just a very long tunnel and until then we'll have to put up with more Summer.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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There is finally a light at the end of the tunnel. It's just a very long tunnel and until then we'll have to put up with more Summer.

Tbh, a little more Summer is fine by me, but not through all of October. I'd say around the 20th or so, then, I am ready to start seeing much colder weather, especially because we are heading towards Halloween.

 

Btw: How are ya coping w this new change in Ohio? Do ya like it?

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tbh, a little more Summer is fine by me, but not through all of October. I'd say around the 20th or so, then, I am ready to start seeing much colder weather, especially because we are heading towards Halloween.

 

Btw: How are ya coping w this new change in Ohio? Do ya like it?

Weather-wise, similar to Lincoln so far lol. This is my 4th straight unseasonably warm September. Though the coolness in August was really nice. I enjoy the lake breeze even though I live too far from the lake for temps to really be affected by it.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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99*.......feels like 107*. I mean, ...C'mon!

 

Partly cloudy

Humidity 38%

DP 66*

 

Somebody stick a fork in it.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Tbh, a little more Summer is fine by me, but not through all of October. I'd say around the 20th or so, then, I am ready to start seeing much colder weather, especially because we are heading towards Halloween.

 

Btw: How are ya coping w this new change in Ohio? Do ya like it?

 

I prefer it warm for Halloween, and not just for the kiddos. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I bit the bullet and subscribed to WeatherModels again. Looks like EPS is significantly less enthusiastic about a massive cooldown, instead overall showing temps around normal, if not slightly above for this area. Cooler out West but even that doesn't last too long. OP Euro looks like GFS. Nothing earth-shattering but it at least gets Summer out the door.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I bit the bullet and subscribed to WeatherModels again. Looks like EPS is significantly less enthusiastic about a massive cooldown, instead overall showing temps around normal, if not slightly above for this area. Cooler out West but even that doesn't last too long. OP Euro looks like GFS. Nothing earth-shattering but it at least gets Summer out the door.

I'm buying with the what the GFS/GEFS are showing.  I think this will be a classic battle between the American vs Euro...GFS is quicker ejecting the major trough out east while the Euro/EPS hang it back in the West.  I'm a little bias leaning towards the GEFS bc its been my long standing idea that the beginnings of the new LRC would favor more ridging in the W/SW.  Not only that, but by utilizing the BSR (pattern back in Sept) it would first favor a storm track across the northern tier during the opening few days of October then slowly push it south as I foresee more blocking in western Canada to develop.  My target dates of a storm system coming out of the central Rockies is between Oct 6th-10th and traversing the Plains/MW (should be a cold storm).  First storm of the LRC pattern???  Lot's of interesting variables coming together.

 

Encouraging, yes, but still a long ways out...there is that SW Ridge on the GEFS setting up in the desert SW....as a result, the North American [attern overall would favor a Nina-ish one coupled with an active STJ enhanced by a Nino-ish SW Flow???  Quite a fascinating pattern is on the horizon if the models are right as the new LRC pattern evolves.  Like I said yesterday, this is what excites me bc I can't recall having the atmosphere and oceans signal quite opposite global drivers of the wx pattern.  

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

 

 

Man, that's a firehouse of precip smack dab across the ag belt regions....

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

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As mentioned in a previous post a number of days ago, using the BSR, we should look for a storm to traverse the northern tier of our Sub during the opening days of October.  So, here we go, the GFS is suggesting a rather potent storm in the Day 9-10 range.  I like what I'm seeing and it fits some LR forecasting tools I use.  Buckle up, storm tracking is going to get a bit more exciting in the days/weeks to come.

 

This post is geared more towards October, but instead I'll post it here since we don't have one yet...prob should fire one up soon...maybe later today or sometime this week.

 

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

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Your success in storms is my hope. Eventually this will dip south with a strong NW push.

Nina-dry winters are harder on us than dry summers. The land is used to dry summers, but a lack of rain in winter months in Okla/Tx is rough on livestock, spring crops, and our attitudes.

 

I'm hoping to watch it start to slump south.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Here at Grand Rapids there now has been 14 days in a row of above average temperatures and for the month of September 17 of the first 23 days have been warmer then average.  Yesterday the H/L was 70/56. For today the average H/L is 70/49 (note the coldest it has been so far this September has been 48°) The record high for today is 94 set in 2017 and the record low is 29 set in 1976. The warmest minimum is 69 set in 1930 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 1942. Last year the H/L was 72/50.

It looks like the overnight low at GRR was 55 but that was 6° warmer then here at my house where the low dropped down to 49°

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Next week really cools off. Projected highs in the 50s. Now, that is some Autumn temps coming.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Weather-wise, similar to Lincoln so far lol. This is my 4th straight unseasonably warm September. Though the coolness in August was really nice. I enjoy the lake breeze even though I live too far from the lake for temps to really be affected by it.

Hopefully, you get to see some good snowstorms this Winter in Ohio. W the correct track, it will benefit my area as well ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm buying with the what the GFS/GEFS are showing. I think this will be a classic battle between the American vs Euro...GFS is quicker ejecting the major trough out east while the Euro/EPS hang it back in the West. I'm a little bias leaning towards the GEFS bc its been my long standing idea that the beginnings of the new LRC would favor more ridging in the W/SW. Not only that, but by utilizing the BSR (pattern back in Sept) it would first favor a storm track across the northern tier during the opening few days of October then slowly push it south as I foresee more blocking in western Canada to develop. My target dates of a storm system coming out of the central Rockies is between Oct 6th-10th and traversing the Plains/MW (should be a cold storm). First storm of the LRC pattern??? Lot's of interesting variables coming together.

 

Encouraging, yes, but still a long ways out...there is that SW Ridge on the GEFS setting up in the desert SW....as a result, the North American [attern overall would favor a Nina-ish one coupled with an active STJ enhanced by a Nino-ish SW Flow??? Quite a fascinating pattern is on the horizon if the models are right as the new LRC pattern evolves. Like I said yesterday, this is what excites me bc I can't recall having the atmosphere and oceans signal quite opposite global drivers of the wx pattern.

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

 

 

Man, that's a firehouse of precip smack dab across the ag belt regions....

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

Cpc and local noaa calling for alot of moisture soon. At this point it's overkill. The flood waters have close I29 again.
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