September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Stormhunter87]

Oh and the severe weather tonight I'll take a pass. Looking like a huge hail threat. Last time we had a nasty looking September severe threat we got some wicked hail damage. Missed my area by about 5 miles but my friend had two totaled cars and a new roof on their just finished home.

[Hawkeye]

The CAMs are showing tonight's storms crapping out before reaching ec/se Iowa.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Oh and the severe weather tonight I'll take a pass. Looking like a huge hail threat. Last time we had a nasty looking September severe threat we got some wicked hail damage. Missed my area by about 5 miles but my friend had two totaled cars and a new roof on their just finished home.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. HRRR has been mostly east of here, but 3km NAM gives us storms

[jaster220]

As mentioned in a previous post a number of days ago, using the BSR, we should look for a storm to traverse the northern tier of our Sub during the opening days of October.  So, here we go, the GFS is suggesting a rather potent storm in the Day 9-10 range.  I like what I'm seeing and it fits some LR forecasting tools I use.  Buckle up, storm tracking is going to get a bit more exciting in the days/weeks to come.

 

This post is geared more towards October, but instead I'll post it here since we don't have one yet...prob should fire one up soon...maybe later today or sometime this week.

 

 

 

 

I realize that in the first week of October, climo favors storms tracking NW of here, but this looks just like the current (past year's) LRC with the main axis of precip from E NE thru Iowa, MN, NWI, etc. I'm challenged to get excited about this. If this is turning over a new leaf, this must be a leaf with identical sides. 

[jaster220]

Cpc and local noaa calling for alot of moisture soon. At this point it's overkill. The flood waters have close I29 again.

 

The rich get...richer

[Stormhunter87]

The rich get...richer

Lol I pass you guys can have it.

[Andie]

96*. Feels like 104*. Partly cloudy.

 

DP 68*

Humidity. 44%

 

Same ol' same ol'

[OmahaSnowFan]

HRRR has consistently become drier and drier for storm coverage this afternoon. Hope this doesn’t turn into a bust

[Tom]

I realize that in the first week of October, climo favors storms tracking NW of here, but this looks just like the current (past year's) LRC with the main axis of precip from E NE thru Iowa, MN, NWI, etc. I'm challenged to get excited about this. If this is turning over a new leaf, this must be a leaf with identical sides. 

I wouldn't worry about it at this stage of the game. Much to early and its still days away.  All I care to see at this point are systems, and strong systems, bc the future track of these storms in the new LRC will easily be adjusted when the cold months come.

[Niko]

Mostly sunny skies and very pleasant outside w temps around 75F. Splendid day!

[Niko]

Lol I pass you guys can have it.

TY Sir!

[Niko]

First snowstorm of the season eyes the Rockies and Canada Prairies.

 

[jcwxguy]

Just took this picture

[Stormhunter87]

Tornado watch... Okay then

[james1976]

[Stormhunter87]

[james1976]

Definitely a signature on the cell by storm lake.

TWC reported at least 1 tornado on ground and also golf ball sized hail in a different storm.

[james1976]

Currently 79 and a strong west breeze. Getting dark out west. Storms are getting closer. Out on the deck grilling some burgers and watching it roll in. Every strong breeze a bunch of leaves fly off the trees. Gotta love when the seasons start clashing! This is a pretty potent cold front pushing in.

[OKwx2k4]

Good heavy rainfall last night and this morning. Definitely a flip from the rest of this month.

[St Paul Storm]

Man that was one intense storm that rolled through. Didn’t last long but Monsoon rains and extremely vivid lightning. Models did an excellent job forecasting the line to explode right over the eastern metro. Watching an awesome lightning show to the East from the deck now.

[St Paul Storm]

Wow. Ryan Maue just posted the number of 90F+ days for a list of cities this summer. Minneapolis only had four 90F days. I knew it was unusually ‘cool’ but I didn’t realize we had that few 90s.

[Andie]

89*. Feels like 91*

 

9pm

 

Uh,...I’m done.

[snowstorm83]

Daylight is starting to get noticeably shorter. It feels weird needing to turn on headlights before 7 pm. First signs of real fall weather are also appearing for the first week of October, this evening in particular felt very muggy for late September. 

[james1976]

Lame so far. Just some thunder with some wind. Stuff is really dying out as it heads east. I guess that was modeled though

[OKwx2k4]

Wow. Ryan Maue just posted the number of 90F+ days for a list of cities this summer. Minneapolis only had four 90F days. I knew it was unusually ‘cool’ but I didn’t realize we had that few 90s.

Yeah, in JBs free post he shared Saturday, he showed that the central CONUS has been below average for the past 120 days. Especially up north. I know I've complained, but my primary complaint has been the unrelenting humidity.

 

I've had 0 at 100°+ and only 34@ 90° and I know most (probably 14-17 of those) barely clipped 90°.

[Stormhunter87]

Finally got some storms that were riding the front. Not severe so I'll take it.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nice little surprise storms along the front this evening. Nothing severe but it doesn't take much to make me happy. 

[Hawkeye]

I wasn't expecting anything from tonight's remnants, but the heaviest cell in the line is moving over Cedar Rapids.  I'm getting some ok thunder and heavy rain.

[Tom]

Today is one of those very nice warm, breezy, autumn mornings I tend to enjoy, so long the DP's are comfortable.  Had the window cracked open the entire night and a nice breeze blowing into my west-facing window.  Gotta enjoy these warmer days bc they are going to be numbered very soon.

[Tom]

Models are targeting another potential heavy rain event for Fri/Sat hitting the same areas that got hit last weekend.  The 00z Euro showing 2-5" across E IA/N IL and similar amounts across E KS/W MO.  Looks somewhat like the NAM in terms of amounts and placement.

 

Sheesh, looking out ahead, the models are turning bolder with the cold push coming as we flip the calendar into October.  I think I'm going to start an October thread today as there will be plenty to discuss.

[Tom]

The long awaited storm (28th-30th) poised to hit the northern tier of the CONUS is in the works and may end up becoming a historic snowstorm for parts of MT and the N Rockies.  Boy, this is quite the way for Mother Nature to usher in Ol' Man Winter into the U.S.

 

 

 

Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
409 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019

MTZ009-010-044-046-048-049-260000-
/O.CON.KTFX.WS.A.0010.190928T0000Z-190930T0000Z/
Northern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Glacier-Toole-
Eastern Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Teton-
Including Logan Pass, Marias Pass, Browning, Heart Butte,
Cut Bank, Shelby, Sunburst, Brady, Conrad, Bynum, Choteau,
Augusta, Fairfield, and Dutton
409 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of
18 to 36 inches, with locally higher amounts in the mountains.
Record or near-record cold temperatures in the teens and 20s with
wind chills zero to 15 above zero. North to northeast winds 15
to 30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Rockies, Rocky Mountain Front, and adjacent
plains of north-central Montana.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Extreme impacts possible, including to power
infrastructure including power lines resulting in widespread
power outages, agricultural interests; outdoor recreational
interests including camping and hunting activities; and travel.
Widespread significant tree damage is possible with heavy wet
snow and strong winds impacting trees with foliage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This early-season winter storm and/or
blizzard has the potential to set a new benchmark for snow
accumulations, cold temperatures, and resulting impacts for
parts of the Northern Rockies and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
similar storm in 1934 produced prolific amounts of snow in late
September over north-central Montana. An extension and/or
expansion of Winter Storm Watches are likely.

* CONFIDENCE...High on accumulations, winds, and expected impacts.
There is low to moderate confidence on the timing of onset and
end of this winter storm event.

 

[Stormy]

A decent cell also passed over my location just before 2:00am. As Hawkeye stated, I wasn’t expecting much of anything. But cells intensified a bit and dropped a nice 0.40” here. I never found out it rained, but remember hearing it thunder and it sounded like a weak storm, so went on sleeping . Max rain rate briefly hit 4”+.

 

The WPC is on steroids again like yesterday morning! 7 day QPF is huge in eastern Iowa!

[Niko]

Skies are mostly cloudy here in SEMI w temps at 63F.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.35" from last night's storm.  My September total is up to 4.61".

 

Models generally agree we'll see good rain Thursday night & Friday.  However, early next week the GFS has more heavy rain around here while the Euro keeps the front and much of the rain farther northwest.

[Niko]

Looks like severe weather for MBY Friday and Saturday and again by next week b4 the real push of chilly air arrives (middle of next week or so) and ends the t'stm activity for the season, potentially.

[Niko]

Karen needs to be watched as she will take a few turns here and there and wobble in the Atlantic. Will be b a strange storm indeed. Hopefully, she fizzles out when she stalls.

[Hawkeye]

Our average high temp will drop below 70º this Saturday.  Our average low is 46º, but even the airport out in the boonies has only dropped to 49º twice.

[snowstorm83]

Karen needs to be watched as she will take a few turns here and there and wobble in the Atlantic. Will be b a strange storm indeed. Hopefully, she fizzles out when she stalls.

 

She's not going anywhere until she speaks to the manager of the Atlantic ocean 

[jaster220]

A decent cell also passed over my location just before 2:00am. As Hawkeye stated, I wasn’t expecting much of anything. But cells intensified a bit and dropped a nice 0.40” here. I never found out it rained, but remember hearing it thunder and it sounded like a weak storm, so went on sleeping . Max rain rate briefly hit 4”+.

 

The WPC is on steroids again like yesterday morning! 7 day QPF is huge in eastern Iowa!

 

Again showing 1-2" of much welcomed rainfall for mby...another CHANCE to break the 0.25" threshold but not gonna hold my breath. 

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids mean temperature for September so far is 67.3°.  The next 6 days will determine where this September ends up but it looks like we will end up is the top 15 or better. Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 75/55 and that is the 15 day in a row of above average temperatures.  For today the average H/L is now down to 69/49.  The record high is 91 set in 2017 and the record low is 29 set in 1947. The warmest minimum is 70 set in 1931 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 2001. Last year the H/L was 80/65’