Jump to content
The Weather Forums

September 2019 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 961
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Speaking of high water.... for the past 4 Falls I have done a canoe challenge ( OK it's  more like a race but BWCAW  ((Boundary Waters Wilderness) )regulations don't allow that) from Rainy Lake to Lak

Hanging with the new baby girl and hitting up oktoberfests all Sept long...Heres to 60's for highs and bonfires all night long

We have dropped from 94 degrees at 5:00 to 65 degrees at 7:40 pm. Hello autumn, nice to see you again.

Posted Images

Yesterdays official reported high at GRR was 61° this was reported just before midnight last night. While most of west Michigan did not get out of the 50’s. That reported H/L of 61/53 still was the first below average day at GRR in 19 days. And the coolest high at Grand Rapids since May 21st.   The mean for the month of September at GR is now 66.2 and it looks like GR will end the month with as the 12th warmest September of record.  For today the average H/L is now down to 67/47. The record high for today is 85 set in 1971 and the record low is 30 set in 1993. The warmest minimum is 64 set in 1905 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 1899. Last year the H/L was 50/42.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a foggy morning here (64F/64F), quite damp out there but this will burn off quickly as temps soar into the mid/upper 80's!  Bust out the shorts and cut-offs...suns out, guns out!

The current temperature here at my house is now 57. While the official high here at GR yesterday was a reported 61 (just before midnight) it did not get out of the 50's here at my hose and has been 56 or 57 since yesterday afternoon. it is now just 66 in the house.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Amazing. A winter CE in Sept

 

 

Civil Emergency Message

MTC035-073-301730-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
ENTER NAME OF AGENCY REQUESTING PRODUCT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT SUN SEP 29 2019

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF PONDERA
COUNTY DISASTER AND EMERGENCY SERVICES AND THE BLACKFEET NATION
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.

AS OF 1130 AM ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29, PONDERA COUNTY DISASTER AND
EMERGENCY SERVICES AND THE BLACKFEET NATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
CENTER HAS STATED ROADS ARE DANGEROUS AND REQUESTED LIMITED TRAVEL
TO EMERGENCY VEHICLES ONLY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

 
  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

We'll have a High of 96* on this last day of September.

October begins with a High forecast of 97*. Ugh.

 

Our first cool front won't make it until next Sunday.

We should see 89* this coming Sunday, then wake to low 60's!

Several days in the low 80's with low 60's morning. Rain in the forecast as well.

 

Bring it, Baby! Bring - it - on !!

  • Like 3

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites

The current temperature here at my house is now 57. While the official high here at GR yesterday was a reported 61 (just before midnight) it did not get out of the 50's here at my hose and has been 56 or 57 since yesterday afternoon. it is now just 66 in the house.

That's a little too chilly in the house for this thin blooded Texan!

But I'm so glad to see the heat break.

 

I thought we would see an early Fall and more rain this late summer, but woah, missed that bus!

  • Like 2

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites

27F was the low in Ely,MN Saturday AM. You probably were not too far away as the Ely airport is also on the South side.

Saturday morning I had a forecast low of 30, but only got to 38. Clouds moved in during the night. Places in northern Minnesota that stayed clear had a freeze. Obviously Ely stayed clear.

 

On another note, it can't seem to stop raining around here. Over 7.5" the last 3 weeks. Some spots near me measured 7"+ in 24 hours on Sept 20-21 and stories of 9"+ going around from that day/night.

If it were June the warm air and heart of the growing season would help dry things up. It being late September drying things up is a slow process dependant on clay soils that absorb slowly and gravity drainage in this flat area. Farmers might need the ground to freeze to harvest wheat and soybeans around here.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

For several days, this heavy rain band was predicted to be centered right through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  Now it's yet another on-the-edge event.  Earlier this month Dubuque received 5" of rain in one night.  Even though it has been raining all month here as well, it has taken all month to get 5" in my yard.

 

James is in a great spot for heavy rain.

 

EFtVIv2WoAAVY_a.jpg

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

EFtVIv2WoAAVY_a.jpg

 

Good, let's keep it NW of here this go-round

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's record is in danger. Forecasted high of 86*F, record at TOL is 85.

  • Like 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

For several days, this heavy rain band was predicted to be centered right through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Now it's yet another on-the-edge event. Earlier this month Dubuque received 5" of rain in one night. Even though it has been raining all month here as well, it has taken all month to get 5" in my yard.

 

James is in a great spot for heavy rain.

 

EFtVIv2WoAAVY_a.jpg

Hope you guys score bc I don’t need or want the rains! It’s crazy wet for late Sept standards around here. Grass is so lush and green. After these couple summery days, it’s going to grow like weeds.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

We just hit 91 with Dew in the low 60's, so it isn't terrible outside.  Cold front is to my northwest.  Rain and t storms ramp up this evening through tomorrow evening.  Tomorrows forecast has falling temps all day.  Looks like 30's by Thursday morning.  Forecasters aren't calling for frost.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

For several days, this heavy rain band was predicted to be centered right through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  Now it's yet another on-the-edge event.  Earlier this month Dubuque received 5" of rain in one night.  Even though it has been raining all month here as well, it has taken all month to get 5" in my yard.

 

James is in a great spot for heavy rain.

 

EFtVIv2WoAAVY_a.jpg

The Euro this afternoon appears to have shifted the heaver rains back into the Cedar Rapids area. It has 2-2.5" of rain in the Cedar Rapids area. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a temperature of 83 here with a DP of 72 for a very warm end of September. Will have to see what GRR comes up at the top of the next hour. The last reading there was 80° This is the 12th time the temperature has reached 80 or better on this date since 1892

Link to post
Share on other sites

30 to 90+   Even in spring that's not an every day occurrence, not @ 3 pm

 

20190930 3pm temps.png

  • Like 8

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty crazy forecast discussion from OAX this afternoon. FFW with potential up to 5" of rain or more by Wednesday morning.

 

The Gulf/tropical moisture available is above the climate records
for early October; above 2". Some of the model precipitable water
values in southeast Nebraska exceed 2.5". NAEFS show some 3.5 to 6
standard deviations related to PW and water vapor influx compared
to the climate normals. The combination of the slow moving front,
favorable thickness diffluence that promote back- building of
storms, warm cloud depths in excess of 4km that promote highly
efficient storms all favor heavy rainfall. Much of the area is in
the moderate category for excessive rainfall and we have a flash
flood watch in effect until Wednesday morning. Current rainfall
amounts are in the 1 to 3 inch range and we can expect some 1 to 2
inch per hour rates, thus 5+ inches in spots is possible. Some of
the models hint at a mesolow tracking northeast along the front
Tuesday afternoon. Features like this can quickly increase
rainfall rates.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro this afternoon appears to have shifted the heaver rains back into the Cedar Rapids area. It has 2-2.5" of rain in the Cedar Rapids area. 

 

The HRRR is just getting into range.  It has heavier rain farther southeast as well, although it has a sharp gradient... from 0 in Iowa City to 2-4" in Vinton.  The HRRR and 3k NAM both have some Tuesday morning activity getting into east-central Iowa.  Maybe that stuff can tug the front a bit more south.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Severe Thunderstorm in NE producing tennis ball sized hail. amazing for the last day of Sept.

  SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 700 PM CDT, tennis ball           sized hail was reported 6 miles northwest of Rockville.
  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Believe it will be 3rd warmest Sept on record here at DSM. ( I knew it was warm, but surprised me how far up the chart it will be).

 

39.32" total precip this year. A full 10" ahead of normal and on pace for top 5 wettest years on record. Not looking forward to the upcoming rain as ground is nearly saturated and expecting some basement wet spots.

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Growing line of storms headed into the west metro. Growing in size and intensity. Heat index still 90F at 6:35pm.

 

I think you said you live in northern St. Paul?  If so, the storms appear to be splitting around you.  The southern metro cell looks pretty potent.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think you said you live in northern St. Paul? If so, the storms appear to be splitting around you. The southern metro cell looks pretty potent.

Yep I’m 4 mi north of downtown St Paul. Best cells going north and south at the moment. Steady rain and a good light show though. That south cell is trying to expand north. We’ll see if it gets here in time.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep I’m 4 mi north of downtown St Paul. Best cells going north and south at the moment. Steady rain and a good light show though. That south cell is trying to expand north. We’ll see if it gets here in time.

 

Rain, rain...and more rain...lots of it.  That's what this storm cell is pretty much producing in my neck of the woods aside from a good lightning show and light rumbling of thunder.  No gusty winds or hail, which I'm ok with.  But man, am I getting tired of this rain!  Last night's storm was quite impressive though, especially for lightning and thunder! It was probably one of the the best from this season so far. Kind of concerned about our cabin though.  They were in the flood warning this morning, so hoping boats on the lift didn't sink or float away like 2012!

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Rain, rain...and more rain...lots of it.  That's what this storm cell is pretty much producing in my neck of the woods aside from a good lightning show and light rumbling of thunder.  No gusty winds or hail, which I'm ok with.  But man, am I getting tired of this rain!  Last night's storm was quite impressive though especially, for lightning and thunder! It was probably one of the the best from this season so far. Kind of concerned about our cabin though.  They were in the flood warning this morning, so hoping boats on the lift didn't sink or float away like 2012!

Yeah this summer has been a constant rainstorm it feels like. Last time I checked about 2 weeks ago we were nearly 11” above normal on precipitation for the year. I’m looking forward to some cool, dry weather for a bit. Although the dry part might not happen. A decent chance of rain for the next few days. The storms last night were rocking here too.

 

Good luck with the cabin. Where’s that located?

Link to post
Share on other sites

I like how some of the CAMS and global models have shifted the heavy stuff southeast with the jackpot again from sw. to east central Iowa. The Euro isn’t that great yet. CR. could really get clobbered according to some models. From my county on to the northwest is now included in a flash flood watch. Looking like I’m going to be right on the edge and it might be a deluge or not. It’s looking interesting including a severe threat. It’s very wet here and we don’t need rain right now, but as a storm enthusiast I’m looking forward to seeing how this evolves and hoping I can score a good strong storm.

 

Still tropical-like here today. Yesterday I had highs of 87°/75° with a max heat index of 95° !

https://www.weather.gov/dmx/dsshydro

 

DVN doesn’t sound to optimistic though for rainfall because of the warm air aloft and EML. Hopefully the front doesn’t stall to the north to far.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah this summer has been a constant rainstorm it feels like. Last time I checked about 2 weeks ago we were nearly 11” above normal on precipitation for the year. I’m looking forward to some cool, dry weather for a bit. Although the dry part might not happen. A decent chance of rain for the next few days. The storms last night were rocking here too.

 

Good luck with the cabin. Where’s that located?

 

Just west of Moose Lake about 20 miles in Cromwell.  I know the Soo Line trail got beat pretty hard around Moose Lake and washed out in quite a few areas. Hoping our logging road we take to go hunting didn't get washed out too bad, but I'm thinking it did in areas as well. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...