September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

God those seconds of sun sound like gold to you. Get over it man, move somewhere sunny. It will make everyone in your life happier I swear. Pretty sad to listen to it year round. Deny it all you want but we all read it day in and day out. Don’t convince us, convince yourself.

That was actually just a purely observational post. Strange response.

 

Didn't get laid tonight??

[Jesse]

Never really broke out of the clouds today. Was surprised at all the mudslides and fallen trees around Seattle from all the rain and thunderstorms the last few weeks. Almost forgot that rain and wind kills more trees around here than drought.

 

Maybe historically (not rain but definitely wind). Although that hasn't been the case in recent years.

[High Desert Mat?]

That was actually just a purely observational post. Strange response.

 

Didn't get laid tonight??

Weird response. Hiding something?

[TT-SEA]

So funny... Jesse is the one who routinely lashes out at people with any preference other than being sopping wet and cold all the time. I rarely say anything to anyone about their preferences. I gave that up years ago. Phil is also guilty of routinely attacking people who cheer for different weather.

 

And here they are... projecting as usual.

[Jesse]

Nice evening. Down to 63 after partly cloudy skies and a high of 71.

 

Hit 50 this morning with some clearing.

[TT-SEA]

Weird response. Hiding something?

I commented 5 hours ago about the current weather conditions.

 

If I say its cloudy... you attack me. If I say its sunny... you attack me. Either way you seem really angry tonight... you had been pretty mellow lately.

[TT-SEA]

Go Cougs!

[High Desert Mat?]

I commented 5 hours ago about the current weather conditions.

 

If I say its cloudy... you attack me. If I say its sunny... you attack me. Either way you seem really angry tonight... you had been pretty mellow lately.

The beat goes on and what you really say is there’s a sliver of hope for a sunray. All I’m saying is maybe go east 75 miles and you may be much happier? Same song and dance we all hear daily, could be a long winter, maybe not but I’m sure we’re gonna hear the same thing in October as March, that’s 5 months. Wow

[jcmcgaffey]

Maybe historically (not rain but definitely wind). Although that hasn't been the case in recent years.

. They actually predict more trees will be killed from rain than from warmer temps in the future.

[High Desert Mat?]

I didn’t get laid.

[Jesse]

. They actually predict more trees will be killed from rain than from warmer temps in the future.

. Crazy stuff

[TT-SEA]

The beat goes on and what you really say is there’s a sliver of hope for a sunray. All I’m saying is maybe go east 75 miles and you may be much happier? Same song and dance we all hear daily, could be a long winter, maybe not but I’m sure we’re gonna hear the same thing in October as March, that’s 5 months. Wow

I hear the same things from the same people all the time on here. All the time. I think some people should move to Juneau or Sitka.

 

I thought today was beautiful. I like to mention nice days. I have not been complaining on the rainy days.

 

You are just in a pissy mood.

[TT-SEA]

Cougs!!

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Heaven on Earth

Glad you like it!

 

Side note... it won't be raining that much. This is not a wet pattern for this area. There will be very little rain and probably a fair amount of sun from Monday-Wednesday.

[ShawniganLake]

. They actually predict more trees will be killed from rain than from warmer temps in the future.

Who is they?

[Timmy]

Lots of good stuff on here tonight

[MossMan]

I know you all have been on the edge of your seat all day about this...

Yes I did finally get to mow this evening before dark!

 

Currently 55 degrees and partly cloudy. 3.53” on the month so far.

[Jesse]

Who is they?

I was curious too. Maybe it’s the same person who wrote the article on the central Washington applegeddon this summer.

[Jesse]

Lots of good stuff on here tonight

jaya

[Anti Marine Layer]

Heaven on Earth:

 

 

 

 

Hell on Earth:

 

 

 

Washington D.C. does not look too bad after Monday.

[MossMan]

So did I hear that Phil is now predicting an El Niño?

[TT-SEA]

Lots of good stuff on here tonight

We were out to dinner... came back and see a few people did not like me mentioning the nice weather today.

[Jesse]

So did I hear that Phil is now predicting an El Niño?

Stronger than the 1982-83 event and the 1997-98 event combined if I’m reading right.

[jcmcgaffey]

Who is they?

Local climatologists. Climate change is supposed to cause warmer and wetter weather in general along with heavier rain events and more flooding. The NW is supposed to actually be affected far less than the rest of the world.

[ShawniganLake]

Local climatologists. Climate change is supposed to cause warmer and wetter weather in general along with heavier rain events and more flooding. The NW is supposed to actually be affected far less than the rest of the world.

Wetter winters and drier summers overall was what I had read. And yes warmer. Had not seen anything regarding the rain killing more trees than drought but could be possible

[Jesse]

Local climatologists. Climate change is supposed to cause warmer and wetter weather in general along with heavier rain events and more flooding. The NW is supposed to actually be affected far less than the rest of the world.

All the climate change in the PNW literature I have read points to lengthening summer drought/intensifying summer heat as having the biggest impact on forests going forward.

 

You will mostly just see riverside vegetation affected by increased wintertime rains and flooding. Whereas heat and drought (and related wildfire) affects vegetation across the entire region to varying degrees.

[Phil]

Washington D.C. does not look too bad after Monday.

It’s all relative..mid-80’s at the end of September are pretty horrific IMO.

 

And this torch has a looong way to run..probably won’t flip around until the 3rd week of October. Feels like 2018.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The rain is taking its sweet time to get here this evening. Still over 60F, the clouds that moved in later afternoon trapped a bit of the afternoon "warmth".

[Phil]

Local climatologists. Climate change is supposed to cause warmer and wetter weather in general along with heavier rain events and more flooding. The NW is supposed to actually be affected far less than the rest of the world.

Warmer and wetter? Based on what?

 

Note how the climate system changed from the Holocene thermal maximum ~ 7000kybp to the LIA (which was a period of overall cooling). More evidence for warmer/drier if there is continued substantial warming.

 

This was the last 7000yrs of global cooling.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It’s all relative..mid-80’s at the end of September are pretty horrific IMO.

 

And this torch has a looong way to run..probably won’t flip around until the 3rd week of October. Feels like 2018.

 

Could be worse, my parents are on their way to Doha. Sounds like 90F+ nights are not particularly uncommon at this time of year. The Persian Gulf has to be one of the least comfortable places to live, oppressive heat/humidity with little chance of a thunderstorm to cool things down. For some reason someone thought it'd be a good place to hold the World Athletic Championships.

[Phil]

During the Holocene thermal maximum, it was much drier across the PNW/BC (insanely warm too..borderline exothermic for a little while).

 

 

Glaciers:

 

[Phil]

Could be worse, my parents are on their way to Doha. Sounds like 90F+ nights are not particularly uncommon at this time of year. The Persian Gulf has to be one of the least comfortable places to live, oppressive heat/humidity with little chance of a thunderstorm to cool things down. For some reason someone thought it'd be a good place to hold the World Athletic Championships.

Yeah, I have no plans to move to Qatar anytime soon.

 

Sounds like a Tim paradise, though!

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, I have no plans to move to Qatar anytime soon.

 

Sounds like a Tim paradise, though!

Real estate is probably cheap

[jcmcgaffey]

All the climate change in the PNW literature I have read points to lengthening summer drought/intensifying summer heat as having the biggest impact on forests going forward.

 

You will mostly just see riverside vegetation affected by increased wintertime rains and flooding. Whereas heat and drought (and related wildfire) affects vegetation across the entire region to varying degrees.

I can see that point too but from what I read is that our summers are supposed to be hotter but wetter overall and the vegetation overall will thicken especially east of the mountains and the any tree die off is more from general change in vegetation. We are not turning into Southern California but more similar to Northern California.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I have no plans to move to Qatar anytime soon.

 

Sounds like a Tim paradise, though!

You seem weak and scared when you post like this.

 

Have you ever met anyone else who enjoys nice weather? There are a few of us in the world. It seems like you have never met anyone who likes 70s and low 80s in the summer. You sort of act my father-in-law who must be very afraid of muslims and gay people based on his extreme and irrational comments about them. But he is really old.

[Jesse]

I can see that point too but from what I read is that our summers are supposed to be hotter but wetter overall and the vegetation overall will thicken especially east of the mountains and the any tree die off is more from general change in vegetation. We are not turning into Southern California but more similar to Northern California.

 

This is like saying that people dying off is from a general change in population. It's a non-statement.

 

I can assure you that a shift to northern California-like weather patterns would by and large kill a lot of trees thanks to warm season heat and drought, not wintertime rains. Trees around here are already used to lots of rain in the winter. 

 

The vegetation in the Rogue Valley of southern Oregon, for instance, is the way it is because of much longer, hotter and drier summers down there. You aren't going to find a western red cedar or western hemlock within miles of the valley floor for that reason. They can't take prolonged periods of hot weather with no rain. Heat and drought tolerant stuff like live oak, incense cedar, sugar pine and madrona dominate.

[Jesse]

Another great GFS run.

[jcmcgaffey]

This is like saying that people dying off is from a general change in population. It's a non-statement.

 

I can assure you that a shift to northern California like weather patterns would by and large kill a lot of trees thanks to warm season heat and drought, not wintertime rains. Trees around here are already pretty used to lots of rain in the winter.

 

The vegetation in the Rogue Valley of southern Oregon, for instance, is the way it is because of much longer, hotter and drier summers down there. You aren't going to find a western red cedar or western hemlock within miles of the valley floor for that reason. They can't take prolonged periods of hot weather with no rain. Heat and drought tolerant stuff like live oak, incense cedar, sugar pine and madrona dominate.

I’m saying that with climate change comes a change in vegetation as well and that includes tree die off. I also don’t think the 2-3 years a of really dry and hot summers we had were not a result of climate change.

[Jesse]