September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Versus 2019.

 

Could it be that we're seeing lag still from the Nino last winter?

[TacomaWaWx]

This looks like it will go down as one of the more interesting Septembers in quite some time.  A good number of thunderstorm days, one top tier thunderstorm, lots of rain, and ending with a potentially historic cold pattern for this time of year.  I looked at the maps for September 1983, which brought the coldest September min temps I have witnessed, and it was not even close to being as cold of a pattern at 500b as this one is going to be.

 

Tonight I will take a look at years like 1971, 1972, 1985, and a few other to see if any of those were even close.  1971 has been coming up as the top analog and that year featured a major Arctic outbreak in late October that brought widespread lowland snow.  According to the CPC the upcoming pattern was a match to 1971 in late September and mid October.

This September has been the most exciting and interesting I can remember. Has me interested for what the next 6 months will end up like.

[Front Ranger]

Ok. Well I have seen both in different years, and I would argue that the colors that arrive on healthy, well-watered trees slowly cured by cool nights in October are generally prettier and more vibrant than the leaves of drought stressed trees who are desperately sucking in their chlorophyll and jettisoning dead organic weight.

Sometimes death can be a beautiful thing.

[Front Ranger]

Low solar.

 

Fall color.

 

UHI.

 

Penis.

Bill P.

[snow_wizard]

It would be pretty impressive if it did. The record of 42 was from 2008 actually not 2007, my weather records I have go back to 2005 for my house. Only thing is I live less than a mile from the Puget sound in one of the warmest spots in western WA. Some spots are going to definitely see some 30s around maybe we see upper 30s to around 40 here.

 

Yeah...I've had lots of 30s here in September with some frost since 2005.  This pattern is going to be so extraordinary for this time of year it's hard to know what kind of numbers we will end up with.  A rough guess would be upper 20s to low 30s for MBY and upper 30s for you.  Given the nature of what's coming we could end up even colder.

[snow_wizard]

One really interesting thing I see right off looking at the Landsburg records is all of the really early cold min temps are 1990 or before.  Pretty intriguing to see this is more of an old school thing.

[GHweatherChris]

Bill P.

Bull Penis?

[High Desert Mat?]

Snow fell on Halloween in Olympia in 2003 if I remember correctly, could be wrong.

That night in NE Portland it was 56 degrees and when I awoke on November 1st it was snowing heavy at 36 degrees. Albeit a very wet snow. That winter turned out great. Snowed several times that winter thanks to the gorge.

[BLI snowman]

Bill P.

 

Today is September 23.

[GHweatherChris]

That night in NE Portland it was 56 degrees and when I awoke on November 1st it was snowing heavy at 36 degrees. Albeit a very wet snow. That winter turned out great. Snowed several times that winter thanks to the gorge.

The little event in Oly where I lived at the time was super fun, first snowfall of my relationship with my now wife.

[Jesse]

That night in NE Portland it was 56 degrees and when I awoke on November 1st it was snowing heavy at 36 degrees. Albeit a very wet snow. That winter turned out great. Snowed several times that winter thanks to the gorge.

 

You're thinking of November 19, 2003. That was a fun event, though. Nice anafront setup.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Low solar.

 

Fall color.

 

UHI.

 

Penis.

And Kevin Martin.

[BLI snowman]

This looks like it will go down as one of the more interesting Septembers in quite some time.  A good number of thunderstorm days, one top tier thunderstorm, lots of rain, and ending with a potentially historic cold pattern for this time of year.  I looked at the maps for September 1983, which brought the coldest September min temps I have witnessed, and it was not even close to being as cold of a pattern at 500b as this one is going to be.

 

Tonight I will take a look at years like 1971, 1972, 1985, and a few other to see if any of those were even close.  1971 has been coming up as the top analog and that year featured a major Arctic outbreak in late October that brought widespread lowland snow.  According to the CPC the upcoming pattern was a match to 1971 in late September and mid October.

 

 

1985 was somewhat close, but the late September airmass was centered further east and we wound up getting backdoored. The northern Rockies had a historic September snowstorm.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us0927.php

 

That produced the last September reading in the 30s to date at PDX, 39 on 9/30.

 

Then we got slammed more directly about 10 days later with a very impressive airmass, the first of many that fall

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us1008.php

[seattleweatherguy]

1985 was all about November. Historically cold and snowy. It was then followed by a cold and dry December. Some place had snow on the 2nd or thereabouts.

Dry December interesting. Maybe my parents remembered wrong

[Timmy Supercell]

68/33 today. Couple of crickets as well to end the evening. 

[TT-SEA]

1985 was somewhat close, but the late September airmass was centered further east and we wound up getting backdoored. The northern Rockies had a historic September snowstorm.

//

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us0927.php

 

That produced the last September reading in the 30s to date at PDX, 39 on 9/30.

 

Then we got slammed more directly about 10 days later with a very impressive airmass, the first of many that fall

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us1008.php

 

 

I clearly remember it dumping snow in the middle of the afternoon in Burnsville, Minnesota on 9/24/85.     That was the earliest I have seen snow falling.

[High Desert Mat?]

You're thinking of November 19, 2003. That was a fun event, though. Nice anafront setup.

It was Halloween night. I was at a party and thinking it was warm out so I didn’t think anything of it and then woke up to wet snow that wasn’t sticking. Short lived but cool. Seems like November that year featured plenty of bouts with snow. December too. I remember most forecasters missing the east wind events so the next year they kept saying it was going to snow via the gorge and it never came.

[BLI snowman]

I clearly remember it dumping snow in the middle of the afternoon in Burnsville, Minnesota on 9/24/85.     That was the earliest I have seen snow falling.

 

Yeah, 0.4" at MSP that day. Earliest on record there.

[TacomaWaWx]

One year that snowwizard brought up is 1971, my grandparents have lots of stories about past weather events and one thing my grandpa remembers was the snow in October of 1971. He also remembers 1985 particularly well. Would be pretty interesting to see October snow happen again, it was only 2 years ago we had Measurable snow on November 3rd and 5th.

[Front Ranger]

Both 1971 and 1985 were not +ENSO. Throw them out.

 

- Phil Seymour Hoffman

[Deweydog]

Both 1971 and 1985 were not +ENSO. Throw them out.

 

- Phil Seymour Hoffman

RIP

[TigerWoodsLibido]

71-72 was ok for here. One blast in late Jan with a couple inches for the cold season. Plenty of winters worse than that one.

[snow_wizard]

71-72 was ok for here. One blast in late Jan with a couple inches for the cold season. Plenty of winters worse than that one.

 

That was one where Seattle owned Portland.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, 0.4" at MSP that day. Earliest on record there.

It covered the ground south of the airport where I was... at least for an hour or so. There was still patches of snow left when we got out of school about 3 hours later. Enough for snowballs.

[snow_wizard]

I'm getting more excited about this event the more I look into it.  It appears that getting both a fantastic 500mb pattern and a Canadian surface high dropping over us is tremendously rare this early in the season.  We could threaten some all time records for cold so early in the season.  Landsburg doesn't have a low on record below 29 until October 8.  Most of the years that did get to freezing in late Sept / early Oct went on to be very good winters.  I have some research to do!

[Omegaraptor]

71-72 looks pretty great in the mountains. Looks like Timberline Lodge had a 100" base by December 15.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

71-72 must have been a heavily north/south year. 2008-esque for down here.

[Timmy Supercell]

You're thinking of November 19, 2003. That was a fun event, though. Nice anafront setup.

 

I think I remember 11/19/2003. 11am-12pm noon, big wet snow flakes coming down and 33 degrees at my elementary school in Beaverton.

For that early in the year it was the only time I recall flakes falling in the middle of a day and not at night time, of course up until I moved east of the mountains.

[Timmy Supercell]

71-72 looks pretty great in the mountains. Looks like Timberline Lodge had a 100" base by December 15.

 

Wow. Most winters the powder barely starts building up by first week of December. That's crazy.

[ShawniganLake]

Snow fell on Halloween in Olympia in 2003 if I remember correctly, could be wrong.

I remember walking home from school in a whiteout in late October of 1991. October 27th I think. Could be a good analog given the budding nino currently.

[Jesse]

I'm getting more excited about this event the more I look into it.  It appears that getting both a fantastic 500mb pattern and a Canadian surface high dropping over us is tremendously rare this early in the season.  We could threaten some all time records for cold so early in the season.  Landsburg doesn't have a low on record below 29 until October 8.  Most of the years that did get to freezing in late Sept / early Oct went on to be very good winters.  I have some research to do!

 

We're still talking 5-7 days out until the really cold stuff, though. There have also been lots of model shifts the last 24 hours. So nothing is set in stone yet.

 

But I will agree that some of the runs today have been pretty. Would love to see them verify!

[Jesse]

It was Halloween night. I was at a party and thinking it was warm out so I didn’t think anything of it and then woke up to wet snow that wasn’t sticking. Short lived but cool. Seems like November that year featured plenty of bouts with snow. December too. I remember most forecasters missing the east wind events so the next year they kept saying it was going to snow via the gorge and it never came.

 

It did not snow in Portland on Halloween night 2003. That night was clear and cold with a low well down in the 20s the next morning.

 

I remember being at a homecoming game for my high school out at Kiggins Bowl. It was a clear and frosty night.

 

You're thinking of the event a few weeks later.

[BLI snowman]

It did not snow in Portland on Halloween night 2003. That night was clear and cold with a low well down in the 20s the next morning.

 

I remember being at a homecoming game for my high school out at Kiggins Bowl. It was a clear and frosty night.

 

You're thinking of the event a few weeks later.

 

 

Funny how fraught with inaccuracies people's memories often are. 

[Timmy Supercell]

It did not snow in Portland on Halloween night 2003. That night was clear and cold with a low well down in the 20s the next morning.

 

I remember being at a homecoming game for my high school out at Kiggins Bowl. It was a clear and frosty night.

 

You're thinking of the event a few weeks later.

 

Yeah I actually went Trick or Treating with a few friends on Halloween 2003, I would have remembered snow covered candy. 

[Deweydog]

Funny how fraught with inaccuracies people's memories often are.

I always default to the thought that we had three inches of snow on 12-1-07 for some reason. Old age...

[Front Ranger]

I remember a wild party in college where I woke up in the front yard to 3" of powder. Nearly lost my penis to frostbite, but was able to save it through vigorous frictional warming.

 

Believe this was July 2004.

[BLI snowman]

I always default to the thought that we had three inches of snow on 12-1-07 for some reason. Old age...

 

He made a forecast that made no sense

For the warm September did not commence

Now he's hoping to even the score

While with every trough, he'll cry some more

The frost will come, the leaves will turn

And much to his despair, the fires won't burn

[TacomaWaWx]

Latest gfs run has the 540 line at roughly Everett at hour 90 and into the SW interior at hour 96.

[BLI snowman]

I remember a wild party in college where I woke up in the front yard to 3" of powder. Nearly lost my penis to frostbite, but was able to save it through vigorous frictional warming.

 

Believe this was July 2004.

 

 

Cokehead

[seattleweatherguy]

Breezy here