September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Holy crap!  The 12z GFS is showing a trough as cold as this one about a week out now.  It's an open trough instead of a closed low so it will unfold slightly differently.  This is proving to be an amazing pattern shift.

 

One interesting thing to note is the emergence of cut off lows in the sweet spot under the Aleutian block again.  The same thing that was the hallmark of the late winter cold snaps we saw last winter.  It would appear that the historic propensity for the late winter patterns of the previous season to reappear in the early part of the next cold season is proving itself out once again.

Really hope that winter isn’t going to blow its load too early this year. But then again, 1985 did spread the wealth throughout the winter to some extent.

[TacomaWaWx]

51 and mostly cloudy at 11am. Should end up 55-57 again today most likely. Decent North breeze here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Do you remember the reports of snow to the lowest elevations of the eastern Gorge on 10/13/09. I ‘member.

Cold December is all I really remember about that winter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If this had happened in November over at my place it would of been a beast. I had 1.2 inches of rain before the snow level dropped.

[MossMan]

I just hit 50!

[ShawniganLake]

Congrats! Is this your first?

Second. We have a 2 year old.

[smerfylicious]

SR 20. US 20 is in Oregon.

You're correct. My bad! Still an unbelievable drive to and from Winthrop yesterday.

 

Washington Pass picked up another 2 inches of snow in the 6 hours that we had left the area. Got some beautiful pics to show off to my coworkers

[MossMan]

Frosty.

[kokaneekidz]

That is beautiful with the full fall foliage contrasting against the fresh snow. A week from now you look to be blessed with more heavenly white.

 

Was 28 at my cabin 4 inches of snow. Looks like December.

[MossMan]

Second. We have a 2 year old.

That’s right, I remember now. You are used to the fragmented sleep I’m sure then.

[BLI snowman]

Have picked up close to a half inch of rain here since midnight, with temps in the low 40s. That much rain with temps so cold is pretty much unheard of down here in September.

 

Last night was never forecast to be clear and cold, FWIW.

Yeah, about a half inch here as well. Much more than forecast.

 

Felt like some frontogenesis with the gradient switch. Awesome snowstorm here in a few weeks!

 

Still just 46 here. Pretty wild for 9/29.

[TT-SEA]

Thin high clouds here and filtered sun... no wind today.

[GHweatherChris]

Not testy at all. You seem testy though. I just found it interesting. You seem to take offense to that... as usual.

Lol, I never get offended, it is a weather forum for crying out loud, there is never anything for anyone to be offended over on here and never a reason to be defensive. Go Hawks!! See ya in the banter thread in an hour and a half.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, I never get offended, it is a weather forum for crying out loud, there is never anything for anyone to be offended over on here and never a reason to be defensive. Go Hawks!! See ya in the banter thread in an hour and a half.

 

 

Go Hawks!

[snow_wizard]

The dp is dropping steadily here and has dropped into the 30s.  Only 52 degreees currently.

 

In other news the 12z ensemble is colder on everything.  The spike between this trough and the next, the next trough, and the potentially major trough about a week out.

[Jesse]

The dp is dropping steadily here and has dropped into the 30s.  Only 52 degreees currently.

 

In other news the 12z ensemble is colder on everything.  The spike between this trough and the next, the next trough, and the potentially major trough about a week out.

 

Overcast and only 47 here with a moderate east wind and a DP of 37. Never have seen conditions like this this early in the season.

[snow_wizard]

Overcast and only 47 here with a moderate east wind and a DP of 37. Never have seen conditions like this this early in the season.

 

That is nothing short of astounding.

[Front Ranger]

Definitely amazing... but note the snow was on the elevated plateau west of town where the airport is... it does not look like city of Spokane got much if any.

Doesn't diminish the record for that location at all.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Overcast and only 47 here with a moderate east wind and a DP of 37. Never have seen conditions like this this early in the season.

 

Must be enjoying it.

[Jesse]

Must be enjoying it.

 

Yes although a little concerned about the frost bite potential. Once it drops below 65F you can start losing entire limbs.

[TT-SEA]

Doesn't diminish the record for they location at all.

No kidding. I said that.

[Omegaraptor]

Overcast and only 47 here with a moderate east wind and a DP of 37. Never have seen conditions like this this early in the season.

The east wind is extending all the way to HIO. 46 with a DP of 39 and 9 MPH east wind.

[Front Ranger]

Last night would have been a great snowstorm setup for the Portland area between late November and early March. Ample moisture moving in overnight with gradients switching to flat or offshore in a cold airmass.

Was thinking the same. The last 24-36 hours would have been great for a lot of areas.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

44 with light rain in Roseburg.

You coming thru the south valley?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cold December is all I really remember about that winter.

Yup. Sloppy snow day for Salem north late in the month. Nothing down this way tho. 1985 on the other hand was awesome regionally. I don’t think anybody had less than 6” for that winter.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF just skirts us with the next cold system in the 8-10 day period.

 

Its actually dry next weekend and through Monday as well. And that system on day 9 is quite dry as its passes by to the north.

 

Its the ECMWF though. Not as reliable as it used to be.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

56F here in southerly winds again. 10 degree temp gradient between here and the N valley. Hopefully this won’t be the norm this winter.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty snow at Allison Pass east of Hope:

 

 

Plenty of snow at Paulson Summit as well:

 

[Jesse]

56F here in southerly winds again. 10 degree temp gradient between here and the N valley. Hopefully this won’t be the norm this winter.

I’m seeing 52F at Eugene. About two degrees warmer than PDX on the hour.

[Front Ranger]

No kidding. I said that.

Then what was your point?

[Geos]

Made it down to 42 here this morning. 0.37" of rain. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’m seeing 52F at Eugene. About two degrees warmer than PDX on the hour.

 

Weird, usually it runs warmer. Still would have been cold rain for us last night if it were Dec but still chilly.

 

Edit: also looks like EUG is starting to see gradients calm and maybe turn northerly so it's just the east side of town down to about Cottage Grove still in southerly flow.

[TT-SEA]

Then what was your point?

 

 

To point out that Spokane itself where most of the people live did not really get any snow.    It was mainly up on the plateau where the airport is located.

 

Just like you frequently pointing out differences between SEA and Seattle.   KGEG got snow... Spokane did not for the most part.   The historic nature of the snow at KGEG is not diminished by what happened in the city of Spokane.  

 

You often mention the city of Seattle when I mention SEA stats.   So obviously you understand since you do it all the time.  

[TT-SEA]

Live view from Medical Lake near KGEG... incredible for the middle of the day in September.     Looks like just rain in Spokane though.

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF indicates the trough early next week will be more of a chilly clipper.  Those are great for cold nights.  No matter how you slice the first third to half of October looks to have very desirable patterns if you want a major cold wave in the early part of the winter.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF indicates the trough early next week will be more of a chilly clipper. Those are great for cold nights. No matter how you slice the third to half of October looks to have very desirable patterns if you want a major cold wave in the early part of the winter.

Definitely much drier and sunnier.

 

I am sensing a 2010-type Thanksgiving.

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely much drier and sunnier.

 

I am sensing a 2010-type Thanksgiving.

White thanksgiving .

[snow_wizard]

Definitely much drier and sunnier.

 

I am sensing a 2010-type Thanksgiving.

 

I could go for some sunny / chilly weather.  That can be delightful in October.  Not to mention the colors could be amazing this year if the details go right.

[TT-SEA]

High clouds seen to be thinning and moving west... becoming sunnier out here now.

[Deweydog]

Sun angle has steadily risen here today. It’ll be interesting to see if that continues throughout the afternoon.