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September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Alders are a stupid tree.

 

They start losing leaves in June but are often still green in early November. Then they just go bare overnight without ever changing colors.

Same with the mixed-breed London Plane cultivars we have lining our streets. Except they shed a bunch of bark along with the leaves starting around the summer solstice, and the leaves drop slowly from July to November. Probably the messiest tree I know of.

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Just a couple, many crazy strikes tonight.

Thanks. She was born at 1:32pm today. Wasn’t due till October 18th, so be prepared. It was a long tough pregnancy for my wife and the doctors finally recommended enough was enough. Her initials coi

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This leaf debate happens every year...Just like the emerging bulbs every January...And Matt’s MLK Day chilly blasts.

No really a debate. You can see yellow leaves and leaves falling every year in late summer.

 

I just said alders are stupid and make a mess for months.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No really a debate. You can see yellow leaves and leaves falling every year in late summer.

 

I just said alders are stupid and make a mess for months.

Others will say this is due to our extreme drought and that leaves are not supposed to fall until October.
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Jim Cantore is so not happy that it will most likely avoid a US mainland landfall...At least as a 5.

https://youtu.be/48r4IQTB3NE

I’m dead. :lol:

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Accidentally deleted that post a second ago with the link lol. Not trying to get into a page filling annual leaf debate or anything just an observation.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39”

Cold season rainfall-25.42”

Snowfall-Tr.

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Accidentally deleted that post a second ago with the link lol. Not trying to get into a page filling annual leaf debate or anything just an observation.

Leaf debates can be used to gradually acclimate us to the more serious debates for this upcoming winter season and you are entitled to your opinion :)

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Will anything be left of Grand Bahama Island after this? The Cat5 is m about to (essentially) stall out over the island for the next 8-12 hours.

 

Impossible to imagine what those people are going through right now.

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GFS has been slowly shifting westward with its track over the last 4 runs... here is the 00Z run.

 

gfs-florida-gust-sw-ath-mph-7738800.png

Jesus that’s a close call.

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Looking at the satellite... Dorian appears to have almost stopped moving right over Grand Bahama.   

 

And the 00Z ECMWF shows that on Tuesday evening its just slightly north of there.   

 

Hard to imagine a cat 5 storm parked will be parked over the same spot for the next 24 hours and then still pounding them with the southern bands even 2 days from now.   I can't believe people stayed.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What a complete nightmare for anyone on Grand Bahama Island. Wow.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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You would think Jeffrey Epstein lived on Grand Bahama given how God is destroying it right now. Maybe Bill Clinton vacationed there once. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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There’s been some pretty intense hurricanes I can recall in my lifetime, but I honestly am starting to believe this could end up being the worst of my lifetime. Really hope that doesn’t slam the SE US too.

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39”

Cold season rainfall-25.42”

Snowfall-Tr.

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Morning low of 57 here. Latest gfs run has a little rain on Friday, but nothing until D10 when the run shows a big fall type storm moving in.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39”

Cold season rainfall-25.42”

Snowfall-Tr.

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There are no words..

 

a38UuMQ.jpg

That would make a neat mirror wall picture!

 

Can’t even imagine as I freak out at a 60 mph gust! Add pounding rain, storm surge, a noise that is freighting all by itself and hidden tornadoes....NO TANkS

The more beautiful they look, the more destructive they are. I've always said I want to experience another Columbus Day Storm but deep down, I think I'll pass on it.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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The more beautiful they look, the more destructive they are. I've always said I want to experience another Columbus Day Storm but deep down, I think I'll pass on it.

The effects of a storm like that happening in 2019 would be worse than if it had happened in 1962 across the PNW. Windstorms can be a cool phenomenon but a serious windstorm is not a good thing, 12/14/06 was the last serious one.
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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39”

Cold season rainfall-25.42”

Snowfall-Tr.

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The good news is that Grand Bahama is largely unpopulated except for Freeport on southwest side of the island... and it appears that Freeport will be largely spared as Dorian is now starting to move north.   Freeport is currently reporting a 60 mph wind.

 

Some places on the island to the east of Freeport were actually in the eye of hurricane for about 12 hours.   That would have been crazy to experience.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Got down to 49 last night. First low in the 40s in about 10 days. Still a couple degrees above average. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The good news is that Grand Bahama is largely unpopulated except for Freeport on southwest side of the island... and it appears that Freeport will be largely spared as Dorian is now starting to move north. Freeport is currently reporting a 60 mph wind.

 

Some places on the island to the east of Freeport were actually in the eye of hurricane for about 12 hours. That would have been crazy to experience.

Is Freeport in the southern edge of the eye? The forecast I saw was for winds 100-130mph later today.
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Is Freeport in the southern edge of the eye? The forecast I saw was for winds 100-130mph later today.

 

 

Its not in the eye... its about 30-40 miles southwest of the eye wall and the storm is inching northward now and not towards Freeport.  

 

Its still going to be a mess there... but they are likely to escape catastrophic damage like Marsh Harbour experienced.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The good news is that Grand Bahama is largely unpopulated except for Freeport on southwest side of the island... and it appears that Freeport will be largely spared as Dorian is now starting to move north.   Freeport is currently reporting a 60 mph wind.

 

Some places on the island to the east of Freeport were actually in the eye of hurricane for about 12 hours.   That would have been crazy to experience.

Freeport Tim.

https://twitter.com/TylerJRoney/status/1168550144943546372?s=19

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65F now in downtown Springfield.  Got down to 54F last night.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Its not in the eye... its about 30-40 miles southwest of the eye wall and the storm is inching northward now and not towards Freeport.

 

Its still going to be a mess there... but they are likely to escape catastrophic damage like Marsh Harbour experienced.

Damage is pretty bad in Freeport right now unfortunately. Many parts of the city have been inundated by water.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39”

Cold season rainfall-25.42”

Snowfall-Tr.

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Damage is pretty bad in Freeport right now unfortunately. Many parts of the city have been inundated by water.

Ahhhh... storm surge. I was focusing on wind.

 

I suppose the constant strong wind from the NW is piling up the water into the north side of town.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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First time I've ever seen a loop like that.  This has to be the most perfect hurricane ever!  Absolutely no imperfection or wobble in the rotation.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The effects of a storm like that happening in 2019 would be worse than if it had happened in 1962 across the PNW. Windstorms can be a cool phenomenon but a serious windstorm is not a good thing, 12/14/06 was the last serious one.

Yeah, it would be catastrophic here on the West Coast.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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