September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Euro kind of goes off the rails with cutoff activity in the mid-long range. GFS will probably lead the way.

[TT-SEA]

Euro kind of goes off the rails with cutoff activity in the mid-long range. GFS will probably lead the way.

What rails?

 

You are sort of implying that a meandering cutoff pattern is impossible even though that is exactly what we had all weekend and still have now.

 

FWIW... even the GFS was showing organized rain for Labor Day about a week ago which prompted me to make reservations east of the mountains. The end of result was an "off the rails" cutoff scenario that resulted in a gorgeous weekend.

[TT-SEA]

The current pattern:

 

 

 

12Z ECMWF at day 10:

 

 

 

Does not seem too outlandish... although it will probably change many times. It at least seems to be on the "rails" given the current pattern.

[Deweydog]

Speaking of rails, we took the train to a Seahawks game one time. It was in 2006. Not a bad winter...

[TT-SEA]

79 and mostly sunny here... with some alto-cumulus floating around.    Pretty sky conditions today.

[Jesse]

Speaking of rails, we took the train to a Seahawks game one time. It was in 2006. Not a bad winter...

What rails!?!

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

Two years ago today the Eagle Creek Fire was really getting established. Within a day or two it was the smokiest I’ve ever seen here in town, with accumulating ash raining out of the sky one night. All with highs around 90 and lows in the mid 60s.

 

Today is much nicer. Clear blue skies and puffy clouds with a temp of 80 after a low of 56.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Two years ago today the Eagle Creek Fire was really getting established. Within a day or two it was the smokiest I’ve ever seen here in town, with accumulating ash raining out of the sky one night. All with highs around 90 and lows in the mid 60s.

 

Today is much nicer. Clear blue skies and puffy clouds with a temp of 80 after a low of 56.

 

Yup, was basically a Silent Hill-type event going down here too.  Even being indoors the AQ was awful.

[TacomaWaWx]

Warmer day here today than I was expecting. Currently 79 degrees here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Two years ago today the Eagle Creek Fire was really getting established. Within a day or two it was the smokiest I’ve ever seen here in town, with accumulating ash raining out of the sky one night. All with highs around 90 and lows in the mid 60s.

 

Today is much nicer. Clear blue skies and puffy clouds with a temp of 80 after a low of 56.

We had some accumulating ash and thick orange smoke here in August of last summer. I don’t think that happened the year before, but it was still very smoky.

[Front Ranger]

We had some accumulating ash and thick orange smoke here in August of last summer. I don’t think that happened the year before, but it was still very smoky.

My friends in Seattle definitely had accumulating ash in 2017.

[van city]

Looks like Dorian is just about done railing the Bahamas.

Freeport!!! Tim

 

https://twitter.com/MerrisBadcock/status/1168963150672252930?s=19

[Deweydog]

Freeport!!! Tim

 

https://twitter.com/MerrisBadcock/status/1168963150672252930?s=19

Looks about right for 60 mph winds.

[TT-SEA]

Looks about right for 60 mph winds.

 

 

I liked this comment...

 

Let's build it out of aluminum they said.

[ShawniganLake]

Thundery here in North Cowichan

[TacomaWaWx]

My friends in Seattle definitely had accumulating ash in 2017.

I think we had a tiny bit that year but I don’t remember it being bad here locally. I’m sure other places had accumulated ash that year as well, I just can only really remember it specifically being bad at my house last summer.

[TacomaWaWx]

Thundery here in North Cowichan

Nice, this is the first time you guys have got some t-storms up north this year right?

[ShawniganLake]

It’s pretty distant from where I am now. But most significant I think we’ve seen.

[Phil]

I liked this comment...

 

Let's build it out of aluminum they said.

The build codes are relatively strict in the Bahamas, for obvious reasons.

[Phil]

Finally, we have heard back from iCyclone.

 

The account from Josh is jaw-dropping and heartbreaking. This guy is the toughest chaser I know..he went through all of the recent big ones, including Patricia (EPAC), super typhoon Haiyan, Matthew, etc, and apparently Dorian blew them all away..literally. Most powerful cyclone he’s experienced in his 28 years of chasing.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/icyclone/status/1169009558167142402

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Finally, we have heard back from iCyclone.

 

The account from Josh is jaw-dropping and heartbreaking. This guy is the toughest chaser I know..he went through all of the recent big ones, including Patricia (EPAC), super typhoon Haiyan, Matthew, etc, and apparently Dorian blew them all away..literally. Most powerful cyclone he’s experienced in his 28 years of chasing.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/icyclone/status/1169009558167142402

 

Glad he made it through.

[Deweydog]

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the high temp for today will be 80. 17th 80+ of the year, much better than the last 5 years.

[El_Nina]

Looks more like dry air getting pulled into the storm to me.

shhhhhhhhhh

[Blizzard777]

Topped out at 81* today at 3:40 pm

Currently 79*

[Anti Marine Layer]

Cold ocean water creates gloomy marine layers and drizzle. Warm ocean water creates deadly hurricanes and heavy rain.

[Jesse]

Cold ocean water creates gloomy marine layers and drizzle. Warm ocean water creates deadly hurricanes and heavy rain.

Clearly, draining the ocean is the only answer.

[MossMan]

Speaking of rails, we took the train to a Seahawks game one time. It was in 2006. Not a bad winter...

A fantastic winter!

[MossMan]

Looks more like dry air getting pulled into the storm to me.

Forks.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Clearly, draining the ocean is the only answer.

In-between water in the 70s would be perfect.

[TT-SEA]

Played 9 holes of "super-twilight" golf with my son at Mt Si Golf Course this evening. Gorgeous evening and sunset... not even the hint of a breeze out there. It was quite warm and felt humid.

 

[MossMan]

Played 9 holes of "super-twilight" golf with my son at Mt Si Golf Course this evening. Gorgeous evening and sunset... not even the hint of a breeze out there. It was quite warm and felt humid.

 

Definitely a perk of your son working at a golf course...you can pretty much play for free anywhere!

[El_Nina]

Cold ocean water creates gloomy marine layers and drizzle. Warm ocean water creates deadly hurricanes and heavy rain.

You could use the same argument for the air over the water.

[jakeinthevalley]

Played 9 holes of "super-twilight" golf with my son at Mt Si Golf Course this evening. Gorgeous evening and sunset... not even the hint of a breeze out there. It was quite warm and felt humid.

 

He's standing on the wrong side of the ball!

 

#leftysrule

[GHweatherChris]

He's standing on the wrong side of the ball!

 

#leftysrule

Conundrum, my wife is a lefty but plays golf righty...

[ShawniganLake]

Conundrum, my wife is a lefty but plays golf righty...

I play golf right but swing a baseball bat left.

[MossMan]

I play golf right but swing a baseball bat left.

I do everything with my right except write.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like a severe t-storm warning went up today up around yale BC.