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October 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Ended of next week looking quite chilly, if not cold at night w temps falling into the 30s and highs not rising any higher than the low 50s. This potent CF coming by midweek means business.

 

At least for a minute, per TOL_Weather's post(s)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Taking a look at what the models are now showing for the opening week of October, it's going to remain active and quite cool depending on your location.  Last night's Euro has trended much colder around the GL's for later this week/weekend and has daytime highs struggling to get out of the 40's for parts of WI/U.P.!  Not only that, but it's starting to "sniff" out the long awaited storm I've been predicting sometime between the 6th-8th.  I must say, I'm encouraged to see the models trending towards a favorable blocking pattern and somewhat of a slight SER component and not to extreme like we saw last October.  IMO, this is a key difference I'm seeing at this stage.  Needless to say, our members down south are still in the game in terms of storm track and getting shots of cooler air this month.  Let's see how this all unfolds. 

 

Interestingly, the GFS/GEFS have been steadfast on this pattern in the longer range and to see the Euro/EPS trend towards the American is something to consider and keep in the back of my mind going forward.  Both models are showing a penetrating CF down the heartland when the potential "cutter" develops around the 6th of the month.  This is likely the beginnings of the new LRC and a good sign for our Sub Forum.  Prior to this system, however, is an interesting development among the models showing a wave of energy hanging back near the TX Panhandle region that forms along the stationary CF across the S Plains into the GL's.  This storm system was being shown on the GFS last week in the longer range and spitting out some snow.  Let's see if it trends back towards that idea for the Northwoods region.

 

 

That's a nice "Banana" type HP placement....

 

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_12.png

 

 

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_15.png

 

 

Following this potential system, the next one on deck using the East Asian Theory/Rule, we have a re-curving Typhoon tracking near Japan on the 3rd/4th which suggests a storm track coming out of the N Rockies (10th-13th) and prob cutting hard NW during this period.  However, depending on how the blocking pattern sets up, or lack thereof, this storm may be a colder one for parts of the Plains/Upper MW.  Lot's of exciting elements of this pattern are coming together and will keep things active going forward.  Plenty of storms and CF's traversing the entire central CONUS. 

 

 

Wonder why I don't think this SER will break down any time soon this month?  Quite simply, if you have a consistent HP pattern just S/SE of the Aleutians, this signals a SER in the longer range.  So long this ridge doesn't pop in the means farther west or north into the Bearing Sea, we won't see a massive EC ridge develop but moreso a subdued one in the means across the deep SE.  Let's see how this all shakes out.

 

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Crazy to see unfold up there. Even the plainsy locations of Montana are seeing blizzard conditions and a foot of snow.

Yes. Truly a special event for those folks. Probably one of those that they'll remember for the rest of their lives.

 

Meanwhile, on the opposite end of the scale (and for the sake of balance in writing/objectivity) we're all probably going to remember this neverending +6° to +10° early autumn we central and midwest/lakes folks have had. I wish that last 7 days of August would have never happened. Such a tease. Lol.

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Yes. Truly a special event for those folks. Probably one of those that they'll remember for the rest of their lives.

 

Meanwhile, on the opposite end of the scale (and for the sake of balance in writing/objectivity) we're all probably going to remember this never-ending +6° to +10° early autumn we central and midwest/lakes folks have had. I wish that last 7 days of August would have never happened. Such a tease. Lol.

 

Not sure 'bout that buddy. Per WestMichJim's post(s), as warm as it's been, this won't even crack top-10 here in SWMI. The hotter (90s) and extended heat into Oct of 2017 will be remembered. At least by me. Now watch it scream up to 95F here tomorrow cuz I wrote this.. :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We somehow managed to go through this oppressively warm month of September without touching any records, but that may come to a halt tomorrow as a 122 year old record is in danger. The forecasted high is 90, the record at TOL is 90 set back in 1897.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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@ Jaster, I think the Euro is listening to your thoughts and flashing one of those legendary storm tracks out of the GOM up into Toledo-Land...@TOL-Weather's magnet may be turned on... B)

 

:lol:  :D  Nice to see that, any time, any place, even in cyber world of wx models.  I missed Octo-bomb circa 2010 since I was working in TX at that time. I know that was windy cuz my (then young) daughter asked me why it was so windy for like two days? But there weren't shingles missing from roof tops like the Nov '98 beast. That storm was intense similar to the Nov 1940 storm that sank all those ships in Lake Mich. Wild times ahead? Oh, and I 2nd the motion about TOL-Weather firing up his storm magnet. Need Niko to turn up his Amplifier as well..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not sure 'bout that buddy. Per WestMichJim's post(s), as warm as it's been, this won't even crack top-10 here in SWMI. The hotter (90s) and extended heat into Oct of 2017 will be remembered. At least by me. Now watch it scream up to 95F here tomorrow cuz I wrote this.. :rolleyes:

Thank you for the correction. And truthfully, aside from the last 16 days down here, on the eastern flank of OK, it really hasn't been as "alarming" as it has been west and SW in Andie's neighborhood. I'm just pouting because I got head-faked in mid-late July and late August.

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New Euro weekly run is out, and well, it sucks. After the slight glimmer of hope next week, the ridge moves back in and is actually more powerful at times than it was at any point this month. The only hope projected by this run is the ridge starts to slowly push towards the East near the end of the run, around Veterans Day. It'll be a long month and a half of anticipation.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I'm in a flash flood watch through Wednesday. I would love to have a nice heavy rain event. Crazy week of weather comin up. DMX had a pretty good afternoon read. We go from low 90s today to heavy rain and then a potential for frost Thursday night! Temps look to remain below normal into next week after the front blows through Wednesday!

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The HRRR is gradually sagging the heavy rain band farther southeast.  Here's the 00z run.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_34.png

 

 

The 00z 3k NAM is still showing the heavier rain farther nw of the front compared to the HRRR, although it's a bit farther southeast than the last several runs.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_14.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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a little OT, but the part at 2:25 into this wx vid cracked me up. I know we Americans always have gotten a kick out of watching risky stunts. Folks bought tickets to such back in the day after all, but I personally feel some of the on-air storm chasing for ratings is, well, what this guy's comment says. And needlessly risky if you ask me. There, I said it.. 

 

https://youtu.be/ip62Dn-CpbY

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thank you for the correction. And truthfully, aside from the last 16 days down here, on the eastern flank of OK, it really hasn't been as "alarming" as it has been west and SW in Andie's neighborhood. I'm just pouting because I got head-faked in mid-late July and late August.

Yeah, were finishing up September with a record warm and dry. Everyone looks at the sky like "why me?"

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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As Sparky mentioned in another topic, DVN is cautious regarding heavy rain making it too far south today/tonight.  Overnight I watched several outflow boundaries push southeast from the storms to the nw, only to quickly wash out when they hit the front.  The front has made zero progress south since last night.

 

Though confidence on the moisture is 100%, the stout EML is also
going to make our possible high impact forecast, far less than what
I would like. Today could be a dry day for most of the CWA, with a
capped warm sector, with very warm and humid conditions again. In
fact, for the south, that is by far the most likely scenario, but
the far north, today is very challenging, as the front may arrive
early, but stall immediately, or just remain north of the CWA. In
any case, I do not believe the cold front will make any farther
progress than near Highway 20 before late afternoon. I do think
that the surface based storms will be inhibited in the warm sector,
but north of the front, they should be widespread. Thus, a gradient
from slight chance near I-80 will rise to categorical pops along the
far northwest through early evening. If storms can be routed along
the surface boundary, as SPC outlooks, we may have a good set up for
supercells, with a full array of severe weather including tornadoes!
If we`re not capped. Most models seems to show the EML holding,
with storms firing roughly 40 miles northwest of the surface
boundary. Looking at radar tonight, that`s been the case to the
west already. The flash flood watch is already in place north, but
an expansion south west may be in order given WPC and SPC
preference for surface based storms and a southern placement. The
antecedent conditions are generally wet anyhow. Tonight, the
front will sag south, especially after Midnight. This will allow
the rains to spread southward with time, but convection is likely
to wane later tonight, and the rain rates should reduce to typical
moderate rain of 0.10 to 0.25 / hour. I did leave some embedded
thunder chance in the grids late tonight, as any active updrafts
on the southern flank of the rain should allow for in-cloud
lightning over a large area of the CWA. Thus, in our area, rains
tonight may total 1 to 2 inches with a narrow swath of 2+ in the
northwest, all assuming the boundary can sink far enough south
today we get into the rain. The southern 1/2 of the CWA is more
likely to remain dry, thus, I am very low on QPF there. Either
you`re in heavy rain tonight, or you`re not getting any rain at
all.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I knew we were not going to get any rain until at least morning, so I did not get my gauge or downspouts prepared.  Just a bit ago a cell popped right over me and it started to pour.  I had to run out and throw my gauge onto the patio.  I picked up a quick tenth.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yesterday H/L at Grand Rapids was 84/57. That high of 84 is the 2nd warmest reading for any September 30th at Grand Rapids. So far the low here at GRR has been 69 and if it stay above 69 until midnight we will set a new record warm minimum for October 1st  For today the average H/L is now down to 66/47. The record high is 89 set way back in 1897 and the record low is 27 set way back in 1899. The warmest minimum is 68 set in 1971 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 1974. Last year the H/L was 57/47.

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Its beautiful outside, but it feels very humid. 73/70F

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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a little OT, but the part at 2:25 into this wx vid cracked me up. I know we Americans always have gotten a kick out of watching risky stunts. Folks bought tickets to such back in the day after all, but I personally feel some of the on-air storm chasing for ratings is, well, what this guy's comment says. And needlessly risky if you ask me. There, I said it.. 

 

https://youtu.be/ip62Dn-CpbY

WOW!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I forgot that it’s October already and posted in the wrong thread. I’ll copy my post here as well.

 

 

I like how some of the CAMS and global models have shifted the heavy stuff southeast with the jackpot again from sw. to east central Iowa. The Euro isn’t that great yet. CR. could really get clobbered according to some models. From my county on to the northwest is now included in a flash flood watch. Looking like I’m going to be right on the edge and it might be a deluge or not. It’s looking interesting including a severe threat. It’s very wet here and we don’t need rain right now, but as a storm enthusiast I’m looking forward to seeing how this evolves and hoping I can score a good strong storm.

 

Still tropical-like here today. Yesterday I had highs of 87°/75° with a max heat index of 95° !

https://www.weather.gov/dmx/dsshydro

 

DVN doesn’t sound to optimistic though for rainfall because of the warm air aloft and EML. Hopefully the front doesn’t stall to the north to far.

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I knew we were not going to get any rain until at least morning, so I did not get my gauge or downspouts prepared.  Just a bit ago a cell popped right over me and it started to pour.  I had to run out and throw my gauge onto the patio.  I picked upa a quick tenth.

I still haven’t put out my gauges. In case you’re wondering why I don’t keep them outside....solar radiation and exposure is hard on some plastics etc so usually take them indoors when rain threats are past to increase lifespan of the gauges.

 

I’ll post my September rainfall in that months thread.

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It's a shame there is a cap over much of Iowa that is preventing storm development.  I don't usually think of capping being a problem in October.

 

I still haven’t put out my gauges. In case you’re wondering why I don’t keep them outside....solar radiation and exposure is hard on some plastics etc so usually take them indoors when rain threats are past to increase lifespan of the gauges.

 

I don't have a permanent gauge stand in the yard.  I built a little mobile stand with small 2x4s.  When it's going to rain or snow I insert the gauge onto the stand and place the stand in the middle of yard (requires placing pieces of mulch under the legs to level it).  I don't even keep the downspouts prepared all the time because they kill the grass.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hopefully some severe weather coming w this CF later tanite. Rain looks to continue tomorrow and into the early parts of Thursday w much colder air arriving.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As I am sitting outside on my patio drinking coffee and working on my laptop, I sense a very uncomfortable breeze. Thankfully, this heat lasts only 1 day. C'mon Ma Nature, its October for gods sake. Btw: its 79/70 and RF is 83F. UGH!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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53/48 with light rain starting to fall. Now this is how October should start.

Wish I had that. Instead, I'm stuck at 78.6*F with a dew point of 69*F. Could be worse but it's still disgusting. Record high will likely be broken today.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Got just under an inch of rain this morning. Wasn't expecting anything until later.

 

Where are you located?  You should update your profile to add your location.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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South shift noted by SR models..

 

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

We did add Allegan and Barry counties to the the flood watch with
the morning update. There has been a tendency for the convection
to build more south and east rather than build northeast. Watching
the convection in Wisconsin...it does appear that it will roll
into the CWA this afternoon and evening. Some high res models try
to show the bulk of the QPF over far northern parts of the CWA
through tonight...but we are favoring a more southern track of the
storms...which would put these two counties in an increased risk
for flooding. Allegan in particular has very saturated conditions
from all the recent rain...which would support efficient runoff.
Already the storms in Muskegon county have produce upwards of 1.5
inches of rain in an hour. This gives an indication of how
efficient the rainfall rates will be for this event.

As for the severe risk...deep layer effective shear is supportive
of organized convection. Forecast guidance attempts to build
surface based instability over 1500 j/kg. Thus depending on how
much instability we do build...severe weather could become an
increasing concern.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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