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October 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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12z ICON...Lovely...Bombs away!!!! The model is "seeing" the secondary piece as the main show which I alluded to yesterday. Nice eye candy...

Any change at all in the timing of that cold down here could mean white stuff or no white stuff. That close. It's October. Holy crap. It's going to be darn cold, that's for sure.

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Man, this system will be packing a lot of wind. NE IA looks to get hammered w this one.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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How long before we start a thread for this? I know it's a ways out and it's now starting to look like 2 separate systems, but everyone but the GFS is on this.  That ICON run....wow.  

Maybe after today's 12z Euro run???  Probably include both pieces...looks like a 2-part storm at this range...sorta similar to the GHD-1 Blizzard...Analog???

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The GFS is trying to hold the energy farther west a bit each run, but it still has a LONG way to go to match the foreign models.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z ICON...Lovely...Bombs away!!!!  The model is "seeing" the secondary piece as the main show which I alluded to yesterday.  Nice eye candy...

 

Amazing closeness of outcome with prior GEM run I had posted.

 

GEM

 

20191023 0z_gem_mslp_pcpn_h234.png

 

ICON

 

20191024 12z_ICON_mslp_pcpn_h174.png

 

Euro 

 

20191024 0z ecmwf_z500_mslp_192hr.png

 

 

EDIT:  Pretty robust consensus that IF there's a secondary wave that does blow up, it likes Tom's place for a pathway. Classic early winter Chicago SLP magnet. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The GFS is trying to hold the energy farther west a bit each run, but it still has a LONG way to go to match the foreign models.

Crazy to see the GFS this far off from the other models. I would think it would have something around the same thing as the others but to show absolutely nothing is something else. Question comes down what wins out: combo, foreign models, or GFS???

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Crazy to see the GFS this far off from the other models. I would think it would have something around the same thing as the others but to show absolutely nothing is something else. Question comes down what wins out: combo, foreign models, or GFS???

 

..and yet, my fantastic office likes the GFS 

 

There have been some timing differences in terms of the arrival of

the coldest air. At this time we believe the most likely outcome

is that the coldest air will arrive by Tue night and Wednesday

rather than later in the week. This is based on a consensus of

the latest GFS/JMA/German ICON medium range guidance solutions in

terms of the evolution of the upper level pattern by then. The

less progressive ECMWF deterministic and ensemble solutions have

been an outlier in this regard.

 

:huh:  :huh:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thundersnow and 10 tornados.....yup, it's Texas.

 

Man, what an outbreak. We have ~2" of rain on the way today.

We get nothing for months, then Mother Nature backs up the truck!

 

The NWS said preliminary indications are that the tornado will be rated an EF-0 with winds hitting 80 mph. The weather service will provide more information on the tornado later.

Nine other tornadoes were confirmed to have touched down in North Texas on Sunday including the following:

 

North Dallas & Richardson - EF-3 with maximum wind speeds of 140 mph; path length 15.75 miles. Initial damage near I-35E and Walnut Hill. Path continued east between Walnut Hill and Royal Lane, through Preston Hollow, to near Central Expressway. Additional damage found near Audelia and Buckingham roads in Richardson.

Garland - EF-2 with winds to 135 mph; path length of 2.5 miles along the southwestern side of the city.

Rockwall - EF-1 with winds to 90 mph; path length of 1.96 miles with some straightline wind damage.

Rowlett, Sachse & Wylie - EF-1 with winds up to 100 mph; path length of 6 miles. NWS survey crews found EF-1 tornado damage on Hickox Road (Rowlett) near the President George Bush Turnpike and on Eastview Drive (Sachse). Additional tornado damage was observed on Larkin Lane in Rowlett, elsehwere in the Pleasant Valley area of Sachse, and on Elm Grove Lane in Wylie.

Midlothian - EF-1 with max winds to 100 mph.

Kaufman County #1 - EF-0 with max winds to 80 mph.

Kaufman County #2 - EF-1 with max winds to 105 mph.

Ferris - EF-0 with max winds to 85 mph.

Wills Point - EF-0 with wind speeds to 80 mph; path lenght of .63 miles. NWS survey crews found tornado damage along County Road 3849 north of Wills Point (Van Zandt County).

 

FBA748D3-59B9-4950-B2E9-421B97DF68BC-3929-00000345F5001825.jpg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like I will pick up near an inch of rainfall w the weekend's system. Had it be snow, well, near 10" right there. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Would be totally shocked (if the Euro is on) if this snow event doesn't move N and esp NW considering the timer of year. Lots of climo data to back my saying. 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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What the hell happens between hr 168 and 192?? My god. 1011mb to 979?!

 

That track suggests a trend toward IL/WI getting the heavy snow rather than eastern IA.

 

Of course, this is still a week away and will change many times.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Jaster, the GGEM/NAM starting to trend towards a nice storm for the Lower GL's this weekend...Back-to-Back storms over the next week???  #FollowTheLeader

 

 

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_46.png

 

..Back-to-Back storms over the next week???

 

Looks like this would be an amazing stretch with winter temps in place. '78-79 like for Chi-town!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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..Back-to-Back storms over the next week???

 

Looks like this would be an amazing stretch with winter temps in place. '78-79 like for Chi-town!

I would like to see all of us in the game this season. With that in mind, I don’t think I’ve ever experienced a big snow for Halloween. Would be cool to witness if it does happen.

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12Z Euro

1572782400-GZfixyTqGwI.png

Congrats to those in parts of IA and WI peeps on here. Euro wants to destroy your area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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