October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Stepped out to a surprise - ongoing showers. Phenomenal clouds and a FULL RAINBOW at sunrise as I rolled into Jackson. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Absolutely pouring rain here.  As hard as I've seen it rain since July.  One cell over town is dumping.  Won't last long but wow.  More rain continues to develop as this long line on rain moves north.

[Bryan1117]

Absolutely pouring rain here.  As hard as I've seen it rain since July.  One cell over town is dumping.  Won't last long but wow.  More rain continues to develop as this long line on rain moves north.

Haven't seen much rain in the Omaha metro this morning outside of a few light showers and drizzle, however it looks like that will be changing here pretty quickly as a large swath of precipitation is building to our southwest and moving this way.

 

The NWS forecast is still showing 1-3 inches of rain across Eastern Nebraska with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches the rest of the today into tomorrow. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Haven't seen much rain in the Omaha metro this morning outside of a few light showers and drizzle, however it looks like that will be changing here pretty quickly as a large swath of precipitation is building to our southwest and moving this way.

 

The NWS forecast is still showing 1-3 inches of rain across Eastern Nebraska with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches the rest of the today into tomorrow. 

It is a cold rain for sure.  Lots coming your way.

[bud2380]

HRRR keeps meandering back and forth on whether or not the  Iowa City/CR corridor will be in the heavy rain bands later or not.

 

 

[Niko]

Looks like all the hvy precip is moving to my north. Hopefully, the front will sag to more south later today.

[Hawkeye]

The euro and hrrr are not on the same page.  The euro keeps the heavy rain well north of CR/IC and doesn't get any rain in here til late tonight.  The HRRR progresses the line more eastward and brings storms in here by evening.  Models have been struggling with this.

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

218 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2019

 

...NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...

 

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE AKRON CANTON

REGIONAL AIRPORT WAS 90 DEGREES AT 207 PM EDT, WHICH EXCEEDS THE

PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES SET IN 1927.

 

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT CLEVELAND HOPKINS

AIRPORT WAS 92 DEGREES AT 207 PM EDT, WHICH EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS

RECORD HIGH OF 87 DEGREES SET IN 1952.

 

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE ERIE INTERNATIONAL

AIRPORT WAS 89 DEGREES AT 1251 PM EDT, WHICH EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS

RECORD HIGH OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 1927.

 

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE MANSFIELD LAHM

AIRPORT WAS 88 DEGREES AT 209 PM EDT, WHICH EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS

RECORD HIGH OF 87 DEGREES SET IN 1927 AND 1937.

 

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TOLEDO EXPRESS

AIRPORT WAS 91 DEGREES AT 203 PM EDT, WHICH EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS

RECORD HIGH OF 90 DEGREES SET IN 1897.

 

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE YOUNGSTOWN WARREN

REGIONAL AIRPORT WAS 88 DEGREES AT 115 PM EDT, WHICH EXCEEDS THE

PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1952.

[St Paul Storm]

HRRR keeps meandering back and forth on whether or not the  Iowa City/CR corridor will be in the heavy rain bands later or not.

 

 

Looks like a snowfall map with a nasty gradient on the northern and southern edges. Almost time to saddle up!

[CentralNebWeather]

My brother in KC couldn't believe our temperature.  We are sitting at 51 degrees with a cold rain and raw north wind.  In KC he said as of 1:30 it was 88 degrees with heat index of 96.  It is only a 5 hour drive from here to his house on the west side of the KC metro on the Kansas side.

[Hawkeye]

The last couple HRRR runs have really dried up CR/IC.  We've gone from 2" to less than a half inch.

 

I think I saw one of the local mets this morning say our record October dewpoint is 71º.  It is currently 72 at the airport.  The school station closest to my house says 74.

[Clinton]

My brother in KC couldn't believe our temperature.  We are sitting at 51 degrees with a cold rain and raw north wind.  In KC he said as of 1:30 it was 88 degrees with heat index of 96.  It is only a 5 hour drive from here to his house on the west side of the KC metro on the Kansas side.

My hope is this is the last hot day we have this year!  I'm ready for fall temps.

[St Paul Storm]

Wind chill down to 47F. The heat index at this time yesterday was 90F.

[Stormy]

One tornado warned cell in far se. Nebraska. Storms are gaining a bit of steam down that way. I’m afraid it will bust for me.

[Tom]

ORD set a record morning low of 73F and it also ended up being the warmest ever overnight low temp for the month of October...#makin'history

[Iowawx]

The last couple HRRR runs have really dried up CR/IC.  We've gone from 2" to less than a half inch.

 

I think I saw one of the local mets this morning say our record October dewpoint is 71º.  It is currently 72 at the airport.  The school station closest to my house says 74.

The latest HRRR has 1.2" of rain in Cedar Rapids. The really heavy band is in northern Linn County, so any slight shift south puts Cedar Rapids in that heavy band. I feel good about this, looks like areas south of interstate 80 may not get much from this. 

[CentralNebWeather]

My hope is this is the last hot day we have this year!  I'm ready for fall temps.

Hopefully you get a taste of this amazing temp.  We actually just dropped to 49 degrees as the rain continues to pour down.  Wind still blowing out of the north between 15-20 mph.  We are going to have our football practice in one of our gyms after school as our practice field has standing water in places and we don't want to take any chances of an injury due to slipping.

[Stormy]

The 3k NAM is looking great for me now! But who knows. I hope this tropical air doesn't all go to waste. Haha

 

Supercells are roaming sw. Iowa.

[Stormy]

Tiny cells beginning to fire in central Iowa east of Des Moines. I think CR should be in the band eventually?

[james1976]

Closing in on me!!

Received 0.22" fron this morning's round

[Hawkeye]

What I'm concerned about is several models (euro, gfs, icon, hrrr) are showing the same scenario.... elevated storms stream north of CR/IC, then the surface storms farther south quickly dry up as they reach the CR/IC area.

[Iowawx]

What I'm concerned about is several models (euro, gfs, icon, hrrr) are showing the same scenario.... elevated storms stream north of CR/IC, then the surface storms farther south quickly dry up as they reach the CR/IC area.

How do you like the look of the radar for Cedar Rapids? I think it looks good for us, and it should begin to move more towards the east at least according to the HRRR. 

[Hawkeye]

How do you like the look of the radar for Cedar Rapids? I think it looks good for us, and it should begin to move more towards the east at least according to the HRRR. 

 

So far, everything is proceeding as the models predicted.  It's the 7-10pm period that matters for our area.

[james1976]

Big round just arrived. Here we go

[Stormy]

What I don't like is the front has stalled and is even trying to move north briefly according to DMX. Another thing is once the sun sets then the storms will likely loose strength again.

 

* lose Lol

[OKwx2k4]

Hope you folks north of Kansas enjoy the cooldown a little below seasonal norms over the next 72 hours. I'm jealous. I've still got to wait a few days but it does finally appear that cooler air is on it's way. Feels like I've been waiting forever.

 

Opened the month of October with 90-92 degree high temp readings all along the Red River. Been a few years since that happened. Warm day here as well at 86°F.

[Bellona]

Wow! Just had two inches of rain in that severe storm in twenty minutes!

[Hawkeye]

So far everything is going as expected.  The first round of strong/severe cells are just barely missing Cedar Rapids to the north.

[Iowawx]

So far everything is going as expected.  The first round of strong/severe cells are just barely missing Cedar Rapids to the north.

I am getting missed by a severe thunderstorm that is 3 miles to my north! I sure hope we get some strong storms in Cedar Rapids.

[Hawkeye]

I am getting missed by a severe thunderstorm that is 3 miles to my north! I sure hope we get some strong storms in Cedar Rapids.

 

Yep.  This was going to be the problem for us.  The front got stuck to the north, so all the elevated, training convection is missing north.  Now we have one chance for a good storm and that's from the line from Des Moines southward.  The HRRR continues to show that line crapping out just before reaching our area.  The latest HRRR shows very little rain for CR/IC.

[Hawkeye]

Tornado warning now just nw of Cedar Rapids.

 

There are a series of potent cells up there.  Somehow, there's also a cell in the capped air east of CR, too.

[Stormy]

That lone storm east of CR appears to be a supercell. I saw that cloud develop near my place and it looked like a surface based cell then. I was right in assuming that it would develop into a storm.

[Stormy]

The DVN sounding doesn't really show a cap. Don't know why these storms couldn't really go for it.

[james1976]

just general rain here...had a few heavy downpours

[East Dubzz]

Starting to see some lightning.

[snowstorm83]

About 2.40" in Lincoln today, still some more rain to the west. Not a great day for outdoor activities or anything, but feels so much better than yesterday. Hopefully these periods of active weather continue into winter. Meanwhile in Memphis, todays high was 96, breaking the all time October high of 95, and might break it again tomorrow with a forecast of 97. There's only been 0.12" of rain there since August 27th, which is very unusual since its typically very wet. 

[Hawkeye]

At 7pm on October 1st, it is 81º with a dewpoint of 73º.  It feels like a July evening.

[Niko]

I was driving along and suddenly a hvy downpour came for a few minutes. Once the rain ended shortly, this double pair rainbow appeared. I took it from my car as I was driving. I thought I'd share this w the forum.

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Pretty heavy cell about to hit Dubuque.

[East Dubzz]

Pretty heavy cell about to hit Dubuque.

Can confirm.