Jump to content

April 2014 Observations and Discussion


clintbeed1993

Recommended Posts

Still cant believe we are only in winter weather advisory. One of the toughest drives I have had to make in years. I think highway 6 should be closed, imo.

I wasn't in a WWA until it was too late. Conditions went from rain/sleet/heavy sleet/to pasting snow in a matter of 30 minutes. There is an unconfirmed report of 15 car wrecks around the area with one that I witnessed on the way back home tonight from Rising City; which is about 7 miles to my East. The WWA was issued around 4:30 and I left at 2 and conditions were horrid at that time. I will gladly take the precip, should end up with over an 1" of liquid precip including 3" of snow! 

887018_10101315919039663_3908657438931854419_o.jpg

1912169_10101315919718303_6890793024329806675_o.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Andie, in Nebraska this winter and spring that is just someone breathing normally, ha ha.  Wind is only 10 MPH here in Central Nebraska right now.  I might fall over since we have been leaning into it for months.

I hear ya. I've noticed how our weather generally, has changed. Most extreme weather seems to have shifted forming a new tornado alley. To my eye it's further north and east. Texas has dodged the bullet the last few years while Oklahoma has been getting it.

Texas has however been very windy. Maybe it's just my perception but its been different here. Meantime, our drought persists.

We just aren't getting enough rain to have runoff, so lakes are low.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still lots of snow around here.  Thought it would melt quicker than it is.  There are even large piles of snow that were moved off of streets and lots making it look like Dec.  Melted down moisture between rain and snow in Holdrege was 1.98 inches,  Most of any location on the NWS Hastings site.  NWS Hastings also had a really cool loop of the storm yesterday. We are feeling really blessed here right now and hoping for more on Thursday after this horribly dry winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still lots of snow around here.  Thought it would melt quicker than it is.  There are even large piles of snow that were moved off of streets and lots making it look like Dec.  Melted down moisture between rain and snow in Holdrege was 1.98 inches,  Most of any location on the NWS Hastings site.  NWS Hastings also had a really cool loop of the storm yesterday. We are feeling really blessed here right now and hoping for more on Thursday after this horribly dry winter.

 

It was great to finally get some moisture!  You guys sure did get hammered!  It would be nice to get some more Thursday, latest GFS totally lost the system though.  Keeps it all down in Kansas.  We shall see I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Officially got 2.3" in Lincoln. Just awesome, especially given we were only supposed to get an inch or less!! Those thunderstorms really helped us out here, and we got lucky as we got bullseyed by two of them. Hopefully Thursday can provide some more relief to this incredible dry spell we have had. Would love another t-storm event, but the snow really helped green up the grass I feel like. It's crazy how much more spring-like it looks like around here just because of this storm yesterday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I heard there were places that didn't do as well.  I just hope the south wind doesn't starting working to eliminate this moisture we just received.  12Z GFS has disappeared with the Thursday storm.  Just a few days back it had 12-18 inches of snow.  Hard to take some of the models seriously when their errors are that egregious. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's looking like things get real active starting next week. 6z GFS had a nice looking trough swinging thru in the middle of next week. Looks like we could see a couple days of severe weather starting early next week. Here is a look at the vort max 500 mb run from the 12z GFS, not as impressive but it's good to see consistency. 

gfs_namer_183_precip_ptot.gif

gfs_namer_180_500_vort_ht.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hastings disco mentions this is a time frame to watch also..

 

CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT A LARGE-
SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SET UP IN SOME WAY/SHAPE/FORM BY
MID-WEEK...PUTTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN WARM AND POTENTIALLY
WINDY SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. ALTHOUGH WAY TOO EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER THE LOCAL AREA SEES A LEGITIMATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE CALENDAR SUGGESTS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm really getting pretty excited. The models have been real consistent and things are looking pretty darn good. Right now looking at Wednesday from central Nebraska down into Kansas. Hodos look amazing!! Things seem to come out slower, but I am hoping Wednesday will be the day as I have other commitments on Thursday and can't go out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm really getting pretty excited. The models have been real consistent and things are looking pretty darn good. Right now looking at Wednesday from central Nebraska down into Kansas. Hodos look amazing!! Things seem to come out slower, but I am hoping Wednesday will be the day as I have other commitments on Thursday and can't go out.

Yeah I didn't post the Hodos but Henry Marguisity posted them in his video today; they are really high!! Long ways to go but it looks like next week could be a very busy one. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hope for some good moisture chances Saturday night into Easter Sunday.  Then we can watch intently the storm coming out mid part of next week.  Can't believe how green things are around here with last Sundays rain and snow storm.  We are building a new elementary school in Holdrege and just last week they had water trucks spraying down the dirt due to the blowing dust.  Yesterday when I drove by there was a significant amount of standing water.  Go figure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Things are looking a lot less impressive for next Wednesday and Thursday now. Moisture has backed off and the system is holding back more on Wednesday and Thursday it ejects through really quickly. We might get something late on Wednesday in central Nebraska but the front should blow through early on Thursday with no chance of severe weather :angry:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Things are looking a lot less impressive for next Wednesday and Thursday now. Moisture has backed off and the system is holding back more on Wednesday and Thursday it ejects through really quickly. We might get something late on Wednesday in central Nebraska but the front should blow through early on Thursday with no chance of severe weather :angry:

Too early for predictions, will change at least two more times till then. Lot more forecasting to go until next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Moisture return still a big problem with the next system on Wednesday. Looking like 'nil tornado chances with high based storms bring hail and wind threat.

 

 

I was extremely disappointed with the weekend system.  If that is any indication of how this week's system will go, I won't be getting too excited.  Models were spitting out insane numbers, most places only got less than a quarter inch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Holdrege had a whopping .29 inches of rain this morning.  That was all for a weekend where forecasters were predicting 90% for Sat-Sun.  How do they miss this badly?  I know of churches that changed their sunrise services based on the rainy and stormy forecast.  Only profession where you can miss and you blame mother nature.  Many people were counting on this forecast and NWS Hastings missed again.  (that is many misses this winter and spring.  Including last Sunday's blizzard conditions that they were very late to the party forecasting.  They were still not forecasting it when it was happening).  I know many on this board that would be correct more often than these supposed trained professionals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Holdrege had a whopping .29 inches of rain this morning.  That was all for a weekend where forecasters were predicting 90% for Sat-Sun.  How do they miss this badly?  I know of churches that changed their sunrise services based on the rainy and stormy forecast.  Only profession where you can miss and you blame mother nature.  Many people were counting on this forecast and NWS Hastings missed again.  (that is many misses this winter and spring.  Including last Sunday's blizzard conditions that they were very late to the party forecasting.  They were still not forecasting it when it was happening).  I know many on this board that would be correct more often than these supposed trained professionals.

All of the forecast models were showing precip and quite a bit of it all the way up to this weekend. Sometimes the models are off and therefore the meteorologists are off. I think people forget, meteorologists don't just make up stuff for the fun of it. If mother nature does something different than what ALL of the computer models were outputting, than I don't blame the humans, I blame Mother Nature.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All of the forecast models were showing precip and quite a bit of it all the way up to this weekend. Sometimes the models are off and therefore the meteorologists are off. I think people forget, meteorologists don't just make up stuff for the fun of it. If mother nature does something different than what ALL of the computer models were outputting, than I don't blame the humans, I blame Mother Nature.

 

I agree, nobody is a psychic when it come to what the weather will do.  All the professionals do is look at weather models and interpret them.  It's pretty much the same thing we do, only they probably have access to more data.  At the end of the day they are just humans, and weather will do what it wants.  The models were completely off.  They had a very off winter as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trying not to get my hopes up too big but it's good to see the consistency. Looks like early on could see discrete supercells tomorrow then very quickly going linear and possibly creating an MCS for Eastern Nebraska. I would love to see a good 1-2" squall line come thru for everybody! Here is the updated precip forecast for tomorrow, I'm located right over the 2.3" bullseye! 

d12_fill.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boy this would help things around here, this includes storms tomorrow and this weekend! 

Dude, wow! That'd be insane. I'd love love love for that to pan out. A slight risk barely includes me tomorrow, but I think we  get a nice squall line to roll through Lincoln; would be awesome to get a severe t-storm! Speaking of the weekend storm, I think it's going to be the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year. Unfortunately we wont get in on the severe weather but heavy rain definitely looks plausible. Strong wording already for 4-5 days out from SPC:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

 

DISCO: IF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree. It's cool out there and no daytime heating. I don't think it will hinder precipitation by any means, but lack of instability is going to hinder our severe weather development for sure. Hopefully this lame area of showers break up really soon!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A dangerous multiple-day severe weather outbreak will begin this weekend over the South Central states and will include the potential for nighttime tornadoes in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

A storm will move slowly across the United States over the next seven to 10 days. The storm will affect Southern California with locally drenching rain and mountain snow on Friday. Its next stop will be the Central states this weekend.

While the central and southern Plains are in need of rain, it will come with the price tag of violent storms.

Since the storm will not arrive on the scene until late in the day Saturday, most storms are not forecast to ignite until the late-day and nighttime hours.

Accuweather.com

 

image.jpg

 

We need rain bad, but I'm not crazy about nighttime tornados and hail. The thing about them is you can hear them but unless there's a flash of lightning you can't see them. Possibly one of the scariest weather phenomenon s we have.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jealous, still raining here. Getting very worried we won't break the 60s today... ugh. Gabel I think you're golden dude, models have been hammering your area tonight, would definitely say you'll get at minimum 1.5"-3".

 

EDIT: I'm all in on severe weather since we got no snow this year, but when the NWS is hinting at strong tornadoes 4 days out, that's scary. We actually are now in the Day 5 risk out here as well. Biggest outbreak of the year without a doubt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jealous, still raining here. Getting very worried we won't break the 60s today... ugh. Gabel I think you're golden dude, models have been hammering your area tonight, would definitely say you'll get at minimum 1.5"-3".

 

EDIT: I'm all in on severe weather since we got no snow this year, but when the NWS is hinting at strong tornadoes 4 days out, that's scary. We actually are now in the Day 5 risk out here as well. Biggest outbreak of the year without a doubt.

I don't know; I'm a little worried about dew points at the moment. They are only in the low to mid 40's. Clouds have almost completely cleared out here so that should help instability around these part. Midwest, have you received any significant rain today or just more of a nuisence in Lincoln? I've seen some pretty decent returns on radar around there and up towards Omaha.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know; I'm a little worried about dew points at the moment. They are only in the low to mid 40's. Clouds have almost completely cleared out here so that should help instability around these part. Midwest, have you received any significant rain today or just more of a nuisence in Lincoln? I've seen some pretty decent returns on radar around there and up towards Omaha.  

Ehh somewhat, probably no more than .5" tops. Sun finally coming out though. I agree with the dew points though, only at 45 here. Need to juice that up quite a bit if were going to get anything in terms of severe weather. I'll take a nice heavy rain any day though! This weekend is looking intense though, especially for Andie. Dallas looks like it  could be right in the heart of this outbreak. NWS now mentioning strong tornadoes possible. This is a few days out keep in mind. Wow. Hopefully we don't see another Moore tornado event from this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dewpoints are rising as we speak.  Kearney has low 50's already.  I think we will be fine.  I don't see any large outbreak of severe weather, but I think we could see some isolated severe storms.  Sun is out in full force to the west.  Storms should begin to fire over the next several hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just issued by NWS Hastings- Severe Thunderstorm Watch.  What is concerning is our dewpoint is only 46 in Holdrege.  The NTV weather forecaster, Tim Reith, said that might be the only problem we have with severe storms is the difficulty in getting the dewpoint high enough this afternoon.  He is a very good meteorologist and I usually trust his forecasts.  I hope I am wrong, but won't trust it until it actually occurs. Boy this past winter has made me cynical.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...