October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Lol. Have the models gone to crap or something? I’ve been taking a beating in here for a few days now.

 

I have no idea what's going on.  We are in an historic cold wave for this early and people aren't happy.

[Phil]

1978-79 was surrounding a solar maximum as well.

 

A real lack of blocking with that one.

Well, if you treat everything equally, of course you’ll have a hard time picking up the effects of solar forcing on PNW climate. But nothing works in isolation in the climate system.

 

If you filter for ENSO/QBO, the solar effect is quite substantial..stronger than ENSO alone, actually. There are only a few years since 1950 that have managed to buck the correlations.

[Geos]

Already 39 here. 

[BLI snowman]

I didn’t read his post, but I’d argue that the system’s response to solar forcing has indeed changed (and substantially) since the 1930s. These correlations are never static..they vary just as the climate system itself does.

 

Jared seems to believe they are static, at least as far as it fits his confirmation bias (i.e. 2008-09 was cold and low solar so this winter must be as well). And if the correlation isn't represented in a particular year then it's because it predates some system overhaul and the results are rendered irrelevant to now.

[snow_wizard]

As for the solar / blocking connection....obviously nothing is true all the time and the same is true in regard to high solar producing a lot of blocking.  A lot of the current theories on it are derived from behavior during the Maunder Minimum which seems to have featured an abnormal amount of blocking over the NE Pacific and NE Atlantic.  In recent times the past four solar mins have all treated us well (that's counting last winter as one of the two deepest solar min winters in this cycle).  All I can say is given the current combination of low solar and observed weather I would bet my next paycheck we will have at least one good month this winter.  This combo is pretty rock solid.

[snow_wizard]

Jared seems to believe they are static, at least as far as it fits his confirmation bias (i.e. 2008-09 was cold and low solar so this winter must be as well). And if the correlation isn't represented in a particular year then it's because it predates some system overhaul and the results are rendered irrelevant to now.

 

To be fair the previous 2 solar mins were also great for us.  That's 3 in a row for sure and this one is likely.

[Blizzard777]

46* last night at this time

currently 43*

[Phil]

Those epic PNW years during solar maximum are almost always +QBO and neutral/-ENSO. It actually works out very consistently.

 

But good luck trying to score with an El Niño/+QBO during solar maximum. And for the same dynamic reasons, the combo of -QBO/Niño in solar minimum often works out better than niña/-QBO in solar maximum. Constructive interference vs destructive interference.

[Front Ranger]

Jared seems to believe they are static, at least as far as it fits his confirmation bias (i.e. 2008-09 was cold and low solar so this winter must be as well). And if the correlation isn't represented in a particular year then it's because it predates some system overhaul and the results are rendered irrelevant to now.

It's funny how much this bothers you.

 

Would you like to see the 500mb for the lowest solar winters the past 4 decades? And are you disputing the fact that low solar promotes high latitude blocking? Because if you are, you are fighting a much larger battle than me.

[BLI snowman]

Well, if you treat everything equally, of course you’ll have a hard time picking up the effects of solar forcing on PNW climate. But nothing works in isolation in the climate system.

 

If you filter for ENSO/QBO, the solar effect is quite substantial..stronger than ENSO alone, actually. There are only a few years since 1950 that have managed to buck the correlations.

 

Do it, I'd be interested to see the actual results. And please show the resulting winter 500mb patterns/extremes across the whole hemisphere. One would think that solar correlations would also transcend our region by a demonstrable margin.

[Front Ranger]

Those epic PNW years during solar maximum are almost always +QBO and neutral/-ENSO. It actually works out very consistently.

 

But good luck trying to score with an El Niño/+QBO during solar maximum. And for the same dynamic reasons, the combo of -QBO/Niño in solar minimum often works out better than niña/-QBO in solar maximum. Constructive interference vs destructive interference.

It's definitely a confluence of factors on a year by year basis. Low solar is just weighting the dice more on one side.

[Phil]

Jared seems to believe they are static, at least as far as it fits his confirmation bias (i.e. 2008-09 was cold and low solar so this winter must be as well). And if the correlation isn't represented in a particular year then it's because it predates some system overhaul and the results are rendered irrelevant to now.

That’s a fair point. It’s definitely not a 1-to-1 correlation and it never will be.

 

I think there’s evidence that, for now, solar minimum generally promotes a system state that is more favorable for PNW winters. But that hasn’t always been the case..and it won’t always be the case.

[Front Ranger]

To be fair the previous 2 solar mins were also great for us. That's 3 in a row for sure and this one is likely.

2018-19 got us off to a very nice start, eventually. And there's a lot of evidence that there's a lag when it comes to atmospheric effects, so I think the overall blocking will be much greater this cold season...-AO/-NAO/-EPO.

 

Personally, I think the last low solar min perturbed things greatly from 2008-11. So we're probably just getting started this time around.

[Phil]

Do it, I'd be interested to see the actual results. And please show the resulting winter 500mb patterns/extremes across the whole hemisphere. One would think that solar correlations would also transcend our region by a demonstrable margin.

Alright. You’ll have to give me 45mins or so to drum it up on NOAA ESRL, though.

[Jesse]

I once helped save a guy’s life with an AED. Pretty proud of that, but it didn’t make me a doctor.

Good point. On the flip side, this sort of stuff DEFINITELY makes you a lawyer.

[BLI snowman]

It's funny how much this bothers you.

 

Would you like to see the 500mb for the lowest solar winters the past 4 decades? And are you disputing the fact that low solar promotes high latitude blocking? Because if you are, you are fighting a much larger battle than me.

 

The winters that surround the solar minimums the last four decades were 1975-76, 1976-77, 1985-86, 1986-87, 1995-96, 1996-97, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2018-19. The winters that surrounded the maximums were 1978-79, 1979-80, 1988-89, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2013-14, and 2014-15.

 

I bolded the years that to my knowledge seemed to feature a substantial amount of regular arctic air transport into the lower 48, which corresponds with anomalous blocking. Looks about even to me.

[jakeinthevalley]

How about some short rib poutine?

 

20190323_193137.jpg

 

Very nice, but I am going with meatless tonight. I didn't want to spend anymore time. Almost pulled out some elk steak from the freezer

[Front Ranger]

As for the solar / blocking connection....obviously nothing is true all the time and the same is true in regard to high solar producing a lot of blocking. A lot of the current theories on it are derived from behavior during the Maunder Minimum which seems to have featured an abnormal amount of blocking over the NE Pacific and NE Atlantic. In recent times the past four solar mins have all treated us well (that's counting last winter as one of the two deepest solar min winters in this cycle). All I can say is given the current combination of low solar and observed weather I would bet my next paycheck we will have at least one good month this winter. This combo is pretty rock solid.

Since 1950, the only low solar period that hasn't treated the PNW well is the 1970s one. And there were some epic winters elsewhere in the NH with that.

[Phil]

The winters that surround the solar minimums the last four decades were 1975-76, 1976-77, 1985-86, 1986-87, 1995-96, 1996-97, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2018-19. The winters that surrounded the maximums were 1978-79, 1979-80, 1988-89, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2013-14, and 2014-15.

 

I bolded the years that to my knowledge seemed to feature a substantial amount of regular arctic air transport into the lower 48, which corresponds with anomalous blocking. Looks about even to me.

FWIW, Nov/Dec 1989 was insanely cold here.

 

Definitely different styles of blocking, though. The solar minimum years you referenced had much more -NAO, while the solar maximum years had more -EPO. That’s a correlation that has held up since the late 1950s (in terms of the derivative especially).

[BLI snowman]

FWIW, Nov/Dec 1989 was insanely cold here.

 

Definitely different styles of blocking, though. The solar minimum years you referenced had much more -NAO, while the solar maximum years had more -EPO. That’s a correlation that has held up since the late 1950s (in terms of the derivative especially).

 

Yeah, I thought about bolding that one based on how December 1989 went but the rest of the season didn't stand out as much and the flow was relatively zonal across NA.

 

It is interesting how historically cold 2013-15 were in the East without the benefit of any substanial -NAO blocking.

[Jesse]

It is interesting how historically cold 2013-15 were in the East without the benefit of any substanial -NAO blocking.

I think a massive +PNA helped them at points.

[Front Ranger]

The winters that surround the solar minimums the last four decades were 1975-76, 1976-77, 1985-86, 1986-87, 1995-96, 1996-97, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2018-19. The winters that surrounded the maximums were 1978-79, 1979-80, 1988-89, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2013-14, and 2014-15.

 

I bolded the years that to my knowledge seemed to feature a substantial amount of regular arctic air transport into the lower 48, which corresponds with anomalous blocking. Looks about even to me.

The greatest effects from solar tend to feature about a 1 year lag.

 

2007-08 was just entering low solar...and it started to feature anomalous cold in late winter/early spring. Similar to last year.

 

1978-79 was definitely before solar max.

 

And the deeper the solar min, the longer the effects. 2009-10 should definitely be on that list, and 2010-11 is debatable.

[Jesse]

The greatest effects from solar tend feature about a 1 year lag.

 

2007-08 was just entering low solar...and it started to feature anomalous cold in late winter/early spring. Similar to last year.

 

 

2007-08 had a pretty chilly SON, too. I think that was one of the coldest falls this century so far for the region.

[Deweydog]

Daddies don't let your sons grow up to be lawyers?

 

Side Note: I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once...

My son wants to be a pilot. Ugh.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I thought about bolding that one based on how December 1989 went but the rest of the season didn't stand out as much and the flow was relatively zonal across NA.

 

It is interesting how historically cold 2013-15 were in the East without the benefit of any substanial -NAO blocking.

Goes to show, ultimately -EPO is King for North America.

[BLI snowman]

I think a massive +PNA helped them at points.

 

In 2014-15, definitely.

 

Extremely blocky high solar winter, BTW. We were just on the wrong side of most of it.

[Front Ranger]

In 2014-15, definitely.

 

Extremely blocky high solar winter, BTW. We were just on the wrong side of most of it.

Extremely +PNA/-EPO. But not exceptionally blocky for the northern hemisphere.

[BLI snowman]

The greatest effects from solar tend to feature about a 1 year lag.

 

2007-08 was just entering low solar...and it started to feature anomalous cold in late winter/early spring. Similar to last year.

 

1978-79 was definitely before solar max.

 

And the deeper the solar min, the longer the effects. 2009-10 should definitely be on that list, and 2010-11 is debatable.

 

I have the monthly data here

 

http://sidc.be/silso/datafiles#total

 

1978-79 was definitely higher solar (235.9 in January vs. 266.9 max in September), and the whole 1978-82 period was pretty pronounced high solar, as was 1988-92. (last truly historic midwinter arctic airmasses in the PNW)

 

The sun entering 2007-08 was quite dead already, we saw a 5.4 spot count in April 2007 and a 1.5 in October. I would agree that 2009-11 would still count as low solar years.

[BLI snowman]

Extremely +PNA/-EPO. But not exceptionally blocky for the northern hemisphere.

 

February 2015 certainly was, as was November 2014.

[The Swamp]

I'm going to call for a massive ridge to build in for the month of November.

 

When the pattern flips, and it will, that's what we will get.  Death ridge with fog and fake cold.  For all of November and maybe December.

 

Winter is blowing it's load two months too early.

[Front Ranger]

[BLI snowman]

Phil will tell you...spot count is not the whole story. And continue to ignore the lag.

 

Again. NH 500mb anomalies tell the tale. I'm on my phone, otherwise I'd post the maps, but supposedly Phil is working on it.

 

Sounds like a convenient and ill-defined/subjective scapegoat for what amounts to a pretty uneven correlation.

[TacomaWaWx]

Cold day up in the mountains today hit 49 at home for a high temp.

[Front Ranger]

Sounds like a convenient and ill-defined/subjective scapegoat for what amounts to a pretty uneven correlation.

Let's see how the blocking the next couple winters go. I like my odds.

 

And the record cold waves this fall are not shocking.

[Jesse]

Blow solar.

[Phil]

Yeah, I thought about bolding that one based on how December 1989 went but the rest of the season didn't stand out as much and the flow was relatively zonal across NA.

 

It is interesting how historically cold 2013-15 were in the East without the benefit of any substanial -NAO blocking.

Yeah, our most extreme cold tends to coincide with Alaskan blocking just like out west, but better snowfall chances come with -NAO (along with more persistent cold and less volatility).

[Phil]

Sounds like a convenient and ill-defined/subjective scapegoat for what amounts to a pretty uneven correlation.

I personally care more about geomagnetic activity than sunspots/TSI. It can have a much more profound photochemical impact, and at crucial times (activity tends to peak at equinoxes).

[BLI snowman]

Let's see how the blocking the next couple winters go. I like my odds.

 

And the record cold waves this fall are not shocking.

 

I actually think we will see a regional arctic airmass this coming season at some point. Just seems like a good time for one.

 

2020-21 will probably be a Nino turd.

[Jbolin]

Blow solar.

Heh'

 

Blow!

[Front Ranger]

I have the monthly data here

 

http://sidc.be/silso/datafiles#total

I would agree that 2009-11 would still count as low solar years.

The 2008-11 period was the blockiest 3 winter period for the NH in quite a while. And it had the full range of ENSO, to boot.