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October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Fascinating solution on the 0z GFS alright. It appears the chance of cold blocking next week is pretty well over, but there has been some consistency on recent GFS runs (as well as the 12z ECMWF) showing the blocking pattern pinching off and restructuring in a favorable way as we approach day 10.

December.

A forum for the end of the world.

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My monthly average ended up at 47.9 for October.  That is really cold for this area.  1984 and 2013 are the only other ones where I have recorded an October below 48.0, and 2013 was mainly due to inversions.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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December.

 

Some kind of an event in November wouldn't shock me.  This October was a lot like 1946 and that November delivered a major snowstorm.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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00z GEM much closer with the cold air. Montana of course gets blasted. Of course. You know who you are! :P Enjoy! A bit of cool air sneaks into Eastern Washington too.

 

gem_T850_nwus_27.png

 

I think the pattern reset after that is going to be a better opportunity.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Almost no doubt I will reach ten freezing minimum temps for this season at an earlier date than any year I have kept records.  That goes back to 1978.  Amazingly almost all of them so far have been 30 or below.

 

SEA ended up with 5 mins of 35 or lower.  You might have to go back a long way to find a year that beats that.  To me this is really impressive when you consider the increased urbanization around the airport since the good old days.  I am truly impressed by this October.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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November time

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Morning low of 36 in Tacoma today. Just got back from orcas island late last night. Really excellent weather up there for late october. Would share some photos of the amazing views and scenery but I broke my phone screen last night and I'm without a phone for a few days unfortunately.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Morning low of 36 in Tacoma today. Just got back from orcas island late last night. Really excellent weather up there for late october. Would share some photos of the amazing views and scenery but I broke my phone screen last night and I'm without a phone for a few days unfortunately.

 

 

That happened to me last week... I dropped it and it somehow landed just right to shatter the screen despite being protected.

 

Its November now BTW... wrong thread.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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October ended up a rather chilly month. Had 4 sub 50 the last 4 days of the month and 3 freezes. Some of the noteable chilly days were 10\1 59\36, 10\2 60\39, 10\9 49\39, 10\10 54\32, 10\11 60\39, 10\26 52\38, 10\27 52\36, 10\28 48\32, 10\29 46\34, 10\30 49\30, 10\31 48\32.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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That happened to me last week... I dropped it and it somehow landed just right to shatter the screen despite being protected.

 

Its November now BTW... wrong thread.  :)

 

Oops 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The best I can do! TONS of snow coming for BC as the firehose of moisture is pointed at them as a very cold air mass 850s ~-20c to -28c is in place.

 

gfs_asnow_ak_65.png

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_65.png

So as I read this, somewhere around 40+" near Big White ski resort, an hour East of Kelowna Canada about 5500 ft up? 

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Ended October with eight freezes, and 12 mornings with at least some frost (sub-35). The most I can ever remember seeing for that month.

 

Average temperature ended up just a hair below 50. Easily the coldest October I have ever personally witnessed, which makes sense since the last one even approaching anything this cold was in the fall before I was born (1985).

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Crap, Salem only hit 26 on 10/31/06. I must issue a correction. It is the coldest Halloween morning at SLE since 2002!

I’ll dispel the fear over 2002 later, but interestingly enough the severe weather/QLCS we had last night was the first late Oct/early Nov event here since..2002. Lol. Not to mention, 2002 was also the last year with a South Pole SSW and early/dynamic FW as well. Those are pretty rare down south.

 

But, no need to fret..in reality, the only thing 2002 has going for it is the fantastic QBO alignment. But that doesn’t predict what happens regionally by itself. We can’t repeat the mid-latitude wavetrain of 2002, even with an El Niño this year, because solar maximum in conjunction with the cold strat hangover from the 1990s in 2002 produces a non-homogenous NAM/NPO. So it’s a non-starter.

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15-day precip anomaly:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf-anom-15day-

Something is up with the pattern this year, man.

 

Not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but never in recorded history has a “severe” drought established here in 10 weeks, then get completely erased in 2 weeks during one of the driest months of year climatologically (October). There’s no precedent for it at all.

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This post makes Phil VERY angry.

Grrrr!!

 

I look at that list and see a combination of ENSO and early-season WHEM MJO transits (phase 8/1 in October is actually cold west/warm east, hence 57/58, 68/69, 72/73, etc).

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...RECORD COLDEST OCTOBER 2019, UPDATED...

 

OCTOBER 2019 WILL GO DOWN AS THE COLDEST OCTOBER EVER FOR SEVERAL

LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST.

 

AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE

LOCATION OCT 2019 PREVIOUS RECORD RECORDS BEGAN

==================================================================

HOLDEN VILLAGE 37.4 38.0 (1985) 1962

TURNBULL NWR 38.1 39.5 (2009) 2007

NEZPERCE 39.1 40.8 (2013) 1901

SANDPOINT 39.2 40.1 (1919) 1910

WALLACE 39.2 40.3 (1946) 1941

DEER PARK 39.3 39.7 (2002) 1998

NWS SPOKANE 39.5 41.1 (2009) 1996

CHEWELAH 39.9 40.3 (2009) 1925

WINTHROP 41.8 42.6 (1984) 1906

SPOKANE AIRPORT 42.3 42.8 (1905) 1881

RITZVILLE 42.7 43.7 (1990) 1916

FELTS FIELD 43.7 44.6 (1998) 1998

KAMIAH 44.1 46.6 (2009) 1979

GRAND COULEE DAM 45.4 46.0 (2002) 1934

EPHRATA 45.8 46.3 (1984) 1949

WENATCHEE AIRPORT 45.5 46.4 (1984) 1959

WENATACHEE WATERPLANT 47.5 47.7 (1946) 1931

 

 

 

...RECORD COLDEST OCTOBER 2019, UPDATED...

 

OCTOBER 2019 WILL GO DOWN AS THE COLDEST OCTOBER EVER FOR SEVERAL

LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST.

 

AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE

LOCATION OCT 2019 PREVIOUS RECORD RECORDS BEGAN

==================================================================

HOLDEN VILLAGE 37.4 38.0 (1985) 1962

TURNBULL NWR 38.1 39.5 (2009) 2007

NEZPERCE 39.1 40.8 (2013) 1901

SANDPOINT 39.2 40.1 (1919) 1910

WALLACE 39.2 40.3 (1946) 1941

DEER PARK 39.3 39.7 (2002) 1998

NWS SPOKANE 39.5 41.1 (2009) 1996

CHEWELAH 39.9 40.3 (2009) 1925

WINTHROP 41.8 42.6 (1984) 1906

SPOKANE AIRPORT 42.3 42.8 (1905) 1881

RITZVILLE 42.7 43.7 (1990) 1916

FELTS FIELD 43.7 44.6 (1998) 1998

KAMIAH 44.1 46.6 (2009) 1979

GRAND COULEE DAM 45.4 46.0 (2002) 1934

EPHRATA 45.8 46.3 (1984) 1949

WENATCHEE AIRPORT 45.5 46.4 (1984) 1959

WENATACHEE WATERPLANT 47.5 47.7 (1946) 1931

 

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • 1 month later...

Day 15 EPS.  Nice GOA ridge signal, but I'm hoping we can do away with so much trough digging into the SW.  The control on the 0z showed us getting blasted so it's in the realm of possibility.

 

 

 

 

post-222-0-19554500-1576446432_thumb.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phew...November and the first half of December was just a bad split flow nightmare and we could still have a November 1985 redux! It was such a bad nightmare you guys! Puppies and Koalas were even injured...It was so sad!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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