October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

18z GFS Analog Composite - Day 8-14. Potential for MAJOR backdoor cold! Check out some of those years popping up. Let's get that up over 95% though. C'MON!!!!

 

A good percentage of those were not Ninos. Phil says throw them out!

[snow_wizard]

Cliff mass is all about the blob.

 

F the blob.  It has moved westward anyway.

[Guest CulverJosh]

F the blob. It has moved westward anyway.

He said that. He is pissed we dont have a coastal radar in Oregon. Jesus.

[snow_wizard]

You mean like in Bozeman this morning?   

 

 

 

 

Kayla seems less excited about the crazy snow and cold there than we do over here about highs in the upper 40s coming up.  

 

That being said... I definitely think the pattern over the last month is a good indication that we will have some craziness eventually as well.

 

Nice comeback!  You managed to be old Tim and new Tim at the same time!  You nicely make the point why I'm stoked about this and it's a pretty big deal.  BTW...where are the people?

[ShawniganLake]

We should have a counter at the top of the November thread. Something that keeps track of "historic" "snap" "moved east a tick" "moved west a tick" "remarkable".

 

It's hard for me to digest. I just look outside and sure as s**t, I can't build a snow monster. The excitement about 55/32 is a little over the top.

 

The sunny streak headed out way sure looks nice.

 

When will it snow and how much?

 

Frost monsters suck.

Frosty here but not enough to build a monster.

[MossMan]

Cliff mass is all about the blob.

Didn’t he say it was dying?

[snow_wizard]

He said that. He is pissed we dont have a coastal radar in Oregon. Jesus.

 

I know he was one of the people who really pushed for Langley Hill in WA.  That one was very needed.

[GHweatherChris]

Very true.

 

I have no idea how a person interested in weather can be unimpressed by what has happened this month though.

I am somewhat impressed, but the only time I get truly excited about cold temps is when there is snow on the ground.

[The Swamp]

The persistent blocking has me excited for snow monsters this winter. Would love to build some for Thanksgiving.

[GHweatherChris]

The persistent blocking has me excited for snow monsters this winter. Would love to build some for Thanksgiving.

Potential starts 11/20/2019!

[TT-SEA]

Nice comeback!  You managed to be old Tim and new Tim at the same time!  You nicely make the point why I'm stoked about this and it's a pretty big deal.  BTW...where are the people?

 

Its not old Tim or new Tim. 

 

There are many different views on here.    I understand the point Chris is making and the point you are making.    Both can be valid.

[snow_wizard]

Only got down to 35 this morning before clouds rolled in. Currently cloudy and 37.

 

Mark Nelsen's recent blog post notes how dry October will end up.

 

It sure hasn't dry here.  Not only a cold October, but quite active up here.  A great mix of different incarnations of cold.  That is something lacking in the cold Octobers that don't lead to good winters.

[TacomaWaWx]

We should have a counter at the top of the November thread. Something that keeps track of "historic" "snap" "moved east a tick" "moved west a tick" "remarkable".

 

It's hard for me to digest. I just look outside and sure as s**t, I can't build a snow monster. The excitement about 55/32 is a little over the top.

 

The sunny streak headed out way sure looks nice.

 

When will it snow and how much?

 

Frost monsters suck.

I can understand someone not being interested in this pattern considering a 55/32 day isn’t all that rare from November to February. Having this pattern go on from late September into late October now is very exciting for us who like to keep track of the statistics of this event and it’s implications for the rest of the winter. Could be some snow monsters soon!

[Blizzard777]

Low of 38* currently 42*

Sitting at 3.16 precipitation for the month 

average temp 49.5

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is utterly insane with the cold Tuesday morning.  I doubt it will actually verify as cold as it shows, but wow!

[snow_wizard]

Low of 38* currently 42*

Sitting at 3.16 precipitation for the month 

average temp 49.5

 

You and Tacoma both ended up colder than my place last night.  Not fair!

[Deweydog]

Next weekend looks nice.

[TacomaWaWx]

It sure hasn't dry here. Not only a cold October, but quite active up here. A great mix of different incarnations of cold. That is something lacking in the cold Octobers that don't lead to good winters.

September and October were both pretty active up in western Washington anyways.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 38* currently 42*

Sitting at 3.16 precipitation for the month

average temp 49.5

Wow only 3.16” over there? I had 4.04”, guess we just got luckier with the rain than federal way did.

[ShawniganLake]

It sure hasn't dry here. Not only a cold October, but quite active up here. A great mix of different incarnations of cold. That is something lacking in the cold Octobers that don't lead to good winters.

Washington has been a wet sandwich with dry to

North and south. I just checked 5 stations in SW BC and only YVR has reached average

[Deweydog]

The only thing worse than not having any exciting weather is having exciting weather and people not reacting appropriately to it.

[MossMan]

Next weekend looks nice.

I need to go back into my pics archives and see when I put up the Christmas lights over the last many years...analogs! Please standby.

[Deweydog]

I need to go back into my pics archives and see when I put up the Christmas lights over the last many years...analogs! Please standby.

That would be absurdly early.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG at -2.3F avg for the month.

 

Highs around 60F on Tuesday coming up. Slightly above normal.  Pleasant and seasonable.

[ShawniganLake]

That would be absurdly early.

It’s best to just leave them up. Then you’re always prepared.

[TT-SEA]

EUG at -2.3F avg for the month.

 

Highs around 60F on Tuesday coming up. Slightly above normal.  Pleasant and seasonable.

 

No way it gets up to 60 there on Tuesday.

 

00Z ECMWF showed upper 40s there that day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

No way it gets up to 60 there on Tuesday.

 

00Z ECMWF showed upper 40s there that day.

 

Morning operational GFS looked like it was close to 60F to me. Blob of yellow in all the green.

[TT-SEA]

Morning operational GFS looked like it was close to 60F to me. Blob of yellow in all the green.

 

 

Not sure what you are seeing... but it does not show 60 there on Tuesday.

 

Here are the afternoon temps on Tuesday.    I know the operational GFS is crap for surface temps... but it does not show what you are saying.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The much more reliable ECMWF surface maps do not even show it getting up to 50 there that day.  

[jcmcgaffey]

Forecast has definitely been dangling the carrot of a dry day since Monday. They keep showing the next day as dry and ends up cloudy and wet for the most part. Today was supposed to be sunny and dry and has been cloudy with rain so far.

[TT-SEA]

Forecast has definitely been dangling the carrot of a dry day since Monday. They keep showing the next day as dry and ends up cloudy and wet for the most part. Today was supposed to be sunny and dry and has been cloudy with rain so far.

Yeah... today has been just a gloomy mess like yesterday so far.

 

But clearing is moving quickly southward now.

 

Check out Bellingham...

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The only thing worse than not having any exciting weather is having exciting weather and people not reacting appropriately to it.

Happens here pretty often. Even when we get a rare big rainstorm, almost no one says anything.

[jcmcgaffey]

It is perfect timing for dry weather the next week.

[MossMan]

Yeah... today has been just a gloomy mess like yesterday so far.

But clearing is moving quickly southward now.

 

Check out Bellingham...

 

Sun came out about an hour ago, the dogs have missed it as much as I have.

46 degrees currently.

[Front Ranger]

Cloudy and kinda muggy the past 36 hours here in Atlanta, with a fair amount of rain last night. Flying home now...then scheduled to leave for Vegas tomorrow evening, but expecting a delay with the snow.

[Timmy Supercell]

Even the incredible cold in November 1985 was preceded by a very wet period in late October into the first half of November.

 

Both 1985 and 2010 started a lot different than this year, as of a week ago the PNW would already be getting lots of rainfall, continuing through the next couple weeks at least. This period looks to be trending dry and cool.

[MossMan]

Well we had an atmospheric river last week so Chris’s 11/20 prediction is actually a possibility since more times than not we get some sort of snow situation 2-4 weeks after a AR event.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Kyle Dittmer is saying huge snows for Gov. Camp starting February through maybe even June.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Over an inch below normal precip for EUG so far in Oct. It's been very north/south with it for sure.

[TT-SEA]

Kyle Dittmer is saying huge snows for Gov. Camp starting February through maybe even June.

It's all a crap shoot. Nobody knows.

[Phil]

I tell you guys....I'm feeling it for this winter. Any October I've ever seen with behavior anything like this ended up delivering a great winter. There are many reasons to be very optimistic about this one.

Just to troll a bit, the last time a World Series game was played in DC was back in...1933.

 

Low solar, epic autumn in the West, even an ideal ENSO setup (unlike 2019)...then poof. Analog?