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October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Sun coming out here now. Rain is done for quite awhile.

 

A looooong while... 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Only got down to 35 this morning before clouds rolled in. Currently cloudy and 37.

 

Mark Nelsen's recent blog post notes how dry October will end up.

 

Expect a Flatiron rebuttal to this.

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September and October were both pretty active up in western Washington anyways.

 

More lightning than I've ever seen in those two months.  Besides what I actually witnessed there has been thunderstorm activity in the general area on other days as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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EUG at -2.3F avg for the month.

 

Highs around 60F on Tuesday coming up. Slightly above normal.  Pleasant and seasonable.

 

I don't think many people are going to be saying that on Tuesday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That would be absurdly early.

November 8th 2009 appears to be my earliest light erection. We did have an arctic blast that December but it was a mostly snowless dumb one. Perhaps I should wait.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Long range ensembles are not as good. Still potential though.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just to troll a bit, the last time a World Series game was played in DC was back in...1933. ;)

 

Low solar, epic autumn in the West, even an ideal ENSO setup (unlike 2019)...then poof. Analog?

 

1933 is an enigma for sure.  To be accurate though even though that solar minimum was pretty deep it didn't have the duration of this one and it wasn't preceded by an uber deep min on the previous cycle..  I think there is some cumulative / lag aspect to the solar piece of the puzzle.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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November 8th 2009 appears to be my earliest light erection. We did have an arctic blast that December but it was a mostly snowless dumb one. Perhaps I should wait.

Don’t blow your load before ma’ nature climaxes. It’s called climo for a reason.

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The trend on the Tuesday cold shot has been amazing.  Now the mean is -5 on the 12z ensemble.  The quite cold GEM is even slightly colder vs the 0z.  This could be a really impressive event.  Looks like the next week could easily run 6 to 10 degrees below normal.  The early November cold wave will depend how the two pieces of high pressure come together.  Those are tricky to model.

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Don’t blow your load before ma’ nature climaxes. It’s called climo for a reason.

 

I think climo is going to take a back seat for much of the country this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1933 is an enigma for sure. To be accurate though even though that solar minimum was pretty deep it didn't have the duration of this one and it wasn't preceded by an uber deep min on the previous cycle.. I think there is some cumulative / lag aspect to the solar piece of the puzzle.

To be clear, I was 99% kidding with that post.

 

And I actually don’t think this will be a frontloaded winter at all in the West. Aside from potential November backdoor action it looks to me like the real Arctic potential will wait until mid-January onwards, with December being a full +PNA month.

 

This winter is unlikely to follow the 1976-2012 script we’ve come to know and love (or hate, depending on your perspective).

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It looks like the ECMWF bottoms out at around -6 for the East Puget Sound Lowlands now!  Besides that it insists the pressure graident goes quite weak Tuesday night.  Could be an historically cold night for some.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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To be clear, I was 99% kidding with that post.

 

And I actually don’t think this will be a frontloaded winter at all in the West. Aside from potential November backdoor action it looks to me like the real Arctic potential will wait until mid-January onwards, with December being a full +PNA month.

 

This winter is unlikely to follow the 1976-2012 script we’ve come to know and love (or hate, depending on your perspective).

 

I figured you were mostly kidding.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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If the Tuesday thing keeps trending colder we could see 850s bottom out around -8.  That is just plain crazy for this early.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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More lightning than I've ever seen in those two months.  Besides what I actually witnessed there has been thunderstorm activity in the general area on other days as well.

 

Regionally September was the most impressive for t'storms/lightning in many years, including my area. I beat myself up for not pulling out the camera and tripod for Aug 10th and Sep 5th.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It appears the NWS has completley missed the model trends for Tuesday.  No mention of it at all.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It appears the NWS has completley missed the model trends for Tuesday. No mention of it at all.

They took the weekend off to rest up for 11/20.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12z WRF

Winter in late October? Yeah. 12z GFS continued the trend of the last 12 GFS runs to progressively shift the arctic trough westward. The result is this run is substantially colder than the cold 00z WRF last night. This looks ridiculously chilly for Tuesday! OH, and the 4km Sounding over PDX shows the east winds ramping up to very strong levels with 50kt wind barbs near the surface and a touch stronger up to 2500'. I have to wonder if this may result in a Wind Advisory for 50mph gusts east of I-205 and I wouldn't rule out a High wind Watch either. Both the 12z GEM and EURO were also colder showing modified arctic air Gorge/east. The fact that we're just 2-3 days away and seeing maps like these is unbelievable for this time of year if not historic! WOW! 1f62e.png
 
72770496_10218855408127958_152374500380373161296_10218855411568044_4782361524779
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They took the weekend off to rest up for 11/20.

 

I'd like to try 11/20, is it like 04/20?  :P

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12z ECMWF

 

Ohhhhhh look what develops at Day 7 and what drops south towards us Day 9-10! HERE WE GO!!!! C'MON!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

The surprisingly superior GEM vehemently disagrees.    ;)

 

gem_z500a_us_41.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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OMG on the day 10 ECMWF!  Snow could be possible with that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The MJO is awake. Note the reflection of the propagation in the 850mb zonal wind anomalies @ 5N/S latitude, which I marked with the arrow.

 

The “background state” is still incredibly stable and is dominated by the +IOD cell, with the easterlies in the IO and subsidence over the Maritime Continent. I marked this with the black line.

 

chJI78A.jpg

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If the Tuesday cold snap and the thing the ECMWF is showing at day 10 verifty we are talking pretty rarified territory for the late Sept to early Nov period this year.  The context says this is not a case of using everything up early either.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The MJO is awake. Note the reflection of the propagation in the 850mb zonal wind anomalies @ 5N/S latitude, which I marked with the arrow.

 

The “background state” is still incredibly stable and is dominated by the +IOD cell, with the easterlies in the IO and subsidence over the Maritime Continent. I marked this with the black line.

 

chJI78A.jpg

 

Truly remarkable the IO trade wind blast continues while the ENSO regions join in also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The MJO brings a trade wind burst and the potential for a backdoor Arctic blast for the West next month as the axis of convergence propagates over the Maritime Continent during a regime of AAM decrease above 30N. So a very weak, impotent, under-developed NPAC jet and tendency towards meridional flow/high latitude blocking dominates.

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The MJO brings a trade wind burst and the potential for a backdoor Arctic blast for the West next month as the axis of convergence propagates over the Maritime Continent during a regime of AAM decrease above 30N. So a very weak, impotent, under-developed NPAC jet and tendency towards meridional flow/high latitude blocking dominates.

 

This language sounds nearly pornographic to me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Guest CulverJosh

Overview of the meeting. We are definitely ENSO neutral and will stay that way through spring 2020 at least. So whoever is saying differently (not mentioning any names but rhymes with "grill"), needs to stop the nonsense.

 

Every single forecaster said above average snowfall for the western valleys and normal mountain snowpack.

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Euro looks good at day 10, but don’t want to get too excited about anything considering there’s not a lot of consensus on where that cold air will end up. Euro seems like it’s on its own with that solution at the moment. Either way it’s going to be really interesting to see what ends up happening.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Then later in November, the MJO/intraseasonal forcing moves back into the Western Hemisphere and renews constructive interference with the background state.

 

So following the -EPO/cold blast, a WWB regime kicks off swiftly, and while it looks to remain blocky (perhaps even more so with downstream surf and a renewed AAM and EAMT cycle), the move will probably be towards more +PNA and/or +TNH in late November/early December.

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Overview of the meeting. We are definitely ENSO neutral and will stay that way through spring 2020 at least. So whoever is saying differently (not mentioning any names but rhymes with "grill"), needs to stop the nonsense.

 

Every single forecaster said above average snowfall for the western valleys and normal mountain snowpack.

What are you basing this on? Gut feeling?

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Overview of the meeting. We are definitely ENSO neutral and will stay that way through spring 2020 at least. So whoever is saying differently (not mentioning any names but rhymes with "grill"), needs to stop the nonsense.

 

Every single forecaster said above average snowfall for the western valleys and normal mountain snowpack.

 

We likely still have a member or two pushing the El Nino agenda. Not me though ;) I remember posting a month ago how ENSO was either trending to be neutral or negative.

 

If lowlands see above average snow that usually means above for me too. Well the only exception to that would be the '13-'14 season.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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