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October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Only 45 right now. Will probably be a cold night in the upper 20s if it clears out. Can't believe Oklahoma lost to K-State. lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Does anyone have ENSO 3.4 anomaly data in numeric table format prior to 1950?  The site I used messed everything up and I can only find a pretty much worthless graph.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 highly skilled and talented meteorologists including Mark Nelsen and Cliff Mass. You want to rebuke them?

Who are the other two?

 

And just because I’ve reached a different conclusion scientifically does not mean I’m “rebuking” them. It’s called a prediction..hypothesis testing. That’s what science is all about.

 

If we were all in lockstep, that would be a bad sign.

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Niño 3.4 has warmed ~ 1C since September on CDAS.

 

Again, I think this is a borderline case. Not a healthy niño by any means if it becomes one. Whether this ends up warm neutral or weak niño is probably irrelevant. But there is no denying the +ENSO lean to things, IMO.

 

nino34.png

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Does anyone have ENSO 3.4 anomaly data in numeric table format prior to 1950? The site I used messed everything up and I can only find a pretty much worthless graph.

Eric Webb (posts here as WebberWeather) has a website with all of this and more.

 

Second link might be what you’re looking for.

 

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/inter-dataset_sst_standard_deviation__1851-2019_.xlsx

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The 1850-1900 period was loaded with those warm neutral/weak niño type winters, many of which produced bigly in the PNW.

 

Proxies (both sediment-based and tree-ring based across the Pacific from the Indo Pacific to to the West Coast) actually suggest weak-amplitude, multiyear +ENSO was the dominant background state throughout the LIA period..which makes sense given Hadley/Walker dynamics. Very wet in the SW US, frequent -NAO and the corresponding SW-Canada cold pool bleeding into the PNW.

 

Inverse of the warm climate tendency towards the broad Hadley/ITCZ/4CH and +NAO/strong+poleward NPAC jet observed now and during the MWP.

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So there is a case to be made that the “true” system response to low solar under current orbital/continental boundary conditions is weaker, more-frequent +ENSO with the Pacific ITCZ/Hadley cell contracted/intensified (from a multidecadal standpoint) and a drawn down IPWP.

 

And you could argue that, in the long run, this type of system state could produce more regularly in the PNW irrespective of ENSO than a high solar/warm climate type regime with the broadened ITCZ/HC and the more +NAM/poleward-consolidated jet, which would become more ENSO-reliant.

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Another snowfall in Spokane this morning - 3rd one by Oct. 26th. Has to be some kind of record. 

 

They have almost similar winters and transition seasons as I do and I am still waiting for my first measurable snow in Klamath Falls right now.

 

It was either their last one or first, sections of Spokane measured a half foot of snow. That is unbelievable for there I imagine.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The cold shot into Montana looks pretty ridiculous on Tues-Weds. Lots of monthly records will be in jeopardy, for low maximums and for minimums. Places like Butte may see their first October maximums in 0's on record.

 

And Bozeman MSU. Record earliest is Oct 30th from 1935 which looks to be in jeopardy. Should be at least 10+ inches of snow on the ground here aiding in maximum airmass potential.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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And Bozeman MSU. Record earliest is Oct 30th from 1935 which looks to be in jeopardy. Should be at least 10+ inches of snow on the ground here aiding in maximum airmass potential.

 

I think Great Falls beat their earliest 0 record by a couple weeks on Oct 10th. 

 

Plus with some of the late September snow, Montana has had one hell of a Fall entrance I imagine.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Guest CulverJosh

They have almost similar winters and transition seasons as I do and I am still waiting for my first measurable snow in Klamath Falls right now.

 

It was either their last one or first, sections of Spokane measured a half foot of snow. That is unbelievable for there I imagine.

My oldest brother will be there working after next summer for at least a couple years. Any words of wisdom for him?

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I think Great Falls beat their earliest 0 record by a couple weeks on Oct 10th. 

 

Plus with some of the late September snow, Montana has had one hell of a Fall entrance I imagine.

 

That's correct. We're talking highs in the 0's though this go-around, the Great Falls record was a low. 

 

If only we could get some clearing Tuesday night then we'd likely see lows drop into the -10's but it looks to stay pretty cloudy at this point.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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My oldest brother will be there working after next summer for at least a couple years. Any words of wisdom for him?

 

Usually things are mild before Halloween (don't use 2019 as a normal). There is about a 5 month window for wintery weather, probably until mid March. Think they can still hit freezing lows in April but their weather is quite tolerable around 6-7 months out of the year. Since I am higher in elevation I believe Spokane can get a few degrees hotter for highs in July and slightly cooler lows in Dec. 

 

Despite what many locals have said here, it doesn't just go from summer to winter in a week. They don't know what they are talking about. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Yeah druncle sliding east.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Guest CulverJosh

It was very interesting driving back from Portland after the meeting today. It got down to 37 or so over Government camp...got up to 42 around Blue Box...then the temp rose to 44 or so the next 10 miles and it started to snow/graupel/hail almost all the way to Warm Springs. Looks like we have some convection firing up near me here in Culver so maybe I get a surprise dusting....who knows? Definitely fun for late Oct.

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They have almost similar winters and transition seasons as I do and I am still waiting for my first measurable snow in Klamath Falls right now.

 

It was either their last one or first, sections of Spokane measured a half foot of snow. That is unbelievable for there I imagine.

 

Yeah, their snowstorms on Sept 28-29 (3.3") and Oct 8-9 (3.6") were their two biggest snowfalls on record for so early in the season. Kind of unreal on a whole new level. 

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Now 222 spotless days so far in 2019, surpassing last year’s total of 221.

 

There were 268 in 2008. We have a chance to surpass that in December, needing just 47 additional spotless days with 65 days remaining in 2019.

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Yeah, their snowstorms on Sept 28-29 (3.3") and Oct 8-9 (3.6") were their two biggest snowfalls on record for so early in the season. Kind of unreal on a whole new level. 

 

Most winters my first measurable ones are mid-November, and my earliest 1" was 10/21/2017. Never had more than one inch before Halloween. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Most of the west coast is free of any precipitation into the middle of November on the 18z GFS.

 

72y6aqV.png

XYEQi01.png

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