April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Tell me about it NebraskaWx, this is why I pointed that out yesterday.  We saw this all to often this winter and that the models would eventually shift it to a 4 corners Pan Handle Hook.  It's just the pattern the LRC has in store this winter.

[Jaycee]

Yeah man you definitely mentioned that, and we all just assume thats what storms are going to keep doing. Hell, blowing dust for 14 hours?? Has that ever happened in chicago?? This is the second time in two years. I just dont get how we get missed, every storm. It has 3 waves for christs sake, and we can't get hit by one?!

[gosaints]

Wish the frost was out of the ground.  Basically adds no moisture to the soil when it happens here this time of the year

[Tom]

I don't recall Chicago or even its suburbs having that severe of blowing dust.  Although, I think we had something similar back in 2012 when we had the heat and dryness in the Spring.

[Money]

euro with about 15-18+ of snow here lol. 850's look cold enough up here.

[CentralNebWeather]

I have seen more blowing dust, wind advisories, and high wind warnings than I can ever recall living in Central Nebraska.  We have been in some sort of fire weather watch or warning most of the winter.  I haven't seen or heard much written about Nebraska's dryness nationally but if things don't change it will hit all of our wallets.  The little bit of rain and snow from this morning has settled the dust but the wind is now howling from the north.

[Jaycee]

Yeah the wind is really what's made living there a nightmare this year. A cold dry winter, might as well make it windy right?! Haha, looks like lincoln's getting a decent storm right now atleast.

[clintbeed1993]

I'm just ready to enjoy weather again.  My passion is enjoying big storms, and I'm starting to go into remission.

[Geos]

I don't recall Chicago or even its suburbs having that severe of blowing dust.  Although, I think we had something similar back in 2012 when we had the heat and dryness in the Spring.

 

Yeah up here we did during late June 2012. Didn't last long though.

[Jaycee]

Yeah up here we did during late June 2012. Didn't last long though.

2012 was a terrible year. I dont think i could survive out here if we end up going through that again. Man that was rough. 100+ temps from june-august, and a trace of precip for the entire month of july. Never again please.

[Money]

GB/MKE pretty bullish. Both have "snow likely" in the grids for Wed. night with 70% chance of precip

[Money]

GGEM Ensembles: http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=168&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

 

Many are farther north than the suppressed op 

[DominicR]

Interesting, GFS still has something going despite lack of cold air but might be enough cold air to work with if we can get a deep and organized system going here. Liking EURO/GGEM constancy lately.

[Tom]

12z Euro Control....

 

[james1976]

if the Euro were to verify i would be getting destroyed. only need 1.9" to break all time record.

[james1976]

wow...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[DominicR]

I am just hoping we can squeeze enough to break 2nd place over next 10 days. Might be our last chance.

[Tony]

12z Euro Control....

Just the Euro showing this much snowfall for such a wide area is amazing in itself. Whether the snow pans out or not there will be a ton of precip for our forum next week. 

[Jaycee]

12z Euro Control....

Hey tom, is the reason for SE Neb lacking snow on that map because of temps or is there just no precip?? Its hard for me to tell using instantweathermaps!

[Tom]

12z Euro Control is to warm for snow, but a lot of rain...

[Money]

Tom, is it too warm for snow up here in E/C WI? 

[Tom]

No, looks to be good for snow production.  Once the Thu/Fri stronger wave moves into lower lakes, 850' s really drop as storm intensifies.

[gosaints]

On a side note after the back and forth earlier today.  It would really be something if all the energy next week could come out at once...

[Money]

18z GFS gonna be much better than 12z. Stronger L but a stronger high to the north-northeast to bring colder air in the area. 

[Tom]

I was thinking the same thing GoSaints...if this can wind up and merge into 1 big storm this would be a giant event.

 

On a side note, CFSv2 seeing the cold coming next week and also a snowy pattern around Easter weekend.

[gosaints]

If it all came out in one, the severe sector would probably be a large story as well

[Money]

997 in N. OK at HR 150. MN getting hit good.

[Money]

Big freezing rain event in S. WI. MN gets 8-10+ 

[DominicR]

Looks like it passes across C IL but pretty close here...nice tight thermal boundary setting up in IL with mid 30s far north to mid-upper 60s across south.

[DominicR]

D**n tight 994mb southern tip of LM.

[Money]

Looks a LOT like the 12z euro.

 

About .4 QPF of FZR rain here followed by a good amount of snow as the low passes through/just south of Chicago.

 

MN gets hammered.

[Money]

D**n tight 994mb southern tip of LM.

 

Yup gets to S. tip of LM and pretty much goes NNE. 992 at HR 180.

[DominicR]

I thought it looked a lot colder on instantweathermaps but I guess nevermind looking at NCEP. Wraps in lot of warm. Way to warm. Need to be way SE to keep it cold enough over here. Though C IA/MN/N WI looks good right now.

[gosaints]

Just north and west of here toasted.  concrete mixer.  will have to look closer at sounds but looking like a good amount of sleet freezing rain here.  The freezing rain threat is starting to scare me.

[Money]

Just north and west of here toasted.  concrete mixer.  will have to look closer at sounds but looking like a good amount of sleet freezing rain here.  The freezing rain threat is starting to scare me.

 

Classic FZR set-up imo with the high to the north trying to funnel in colder-air and the storm coming NNE from the south. 

 

Even though it's harder to get freezing rain in the spring, this is looking quite likely with warm 850 mb temps and 2m temps around 30.

[Geos]

If it all came out in one, the severe sector would probably be a large story as well

 

It would probably crank itself pretty far NW too. - coming out in one piece. Ice threat the highest for you between 162-168 (night time).

[Money]

bufkit for OSH:

 

140403/0900Z 159 07017KT 29.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140403/1200Z 162 08014KT 28.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.04 0| 2| 98
140403/1500Z 165 07017KT 30.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.046 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.09 0| 0|100
140403/1800Z 168 07015KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.099 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.19 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/2100Z 171 04017KT 29.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 0.101 0:1| 0.0|| 0.20|| 0.19|| 0.29 2| 98| 0
140404/0000Z 174 05017KT 28.3F SNPL 2:1| 0.1|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.038 2:1| 0.1|| 0.26|| 0.19|| 0.32 20| 80| 0
140404/0300Z 177 01010KT 27.8F SNOW 13:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.428 12:1| 5.7|| 0.26|| 0.19|| 0.75 100| 0| 0
140404/0600Z 180 36012KT 27.0F SNOW 5:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.204 10:1| 6.7|| 0.26|| 0.19|| 0.96 100| 0| 0

 

 

For GRB

 

140403/0900Z 159 06015KT 27.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140403/1200Z 162 07015KT 27.6F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01 0| 11| 89
140403/1500Z 165 07017KT 28.8F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.03|| 0.031 0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.04|| 0.04 0| 13| 87
140403/1800Z 168 06017KT 29.0F SNPL 2:1| 0.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.089 2:1| 0.2|| 0.14|| 0.04|| 0.13 26| 74| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/2100Z 171 03018KT 27.6F SNOW 6:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.175 5:1| 1.3|| 0.14|| 0.04|| 0.30 100| 0| 0
140404/0000Z 174 04018KT 27.2F SNPL 2:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.032 5:1| 1.4|| 0.19|| 0.04|| 0.34 21| 79| 0
140404/0300Z 177 03014KT 27.6F SNOW 12:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.278 8:1| 4.7|| 0.19|| 0.04|| 0.61 100| 0| 0
140404/0600Z 180 01016KT 28.3F SNOW 5:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.461 7:1| 6.9|| 0.19|| 0.04|| 1.07 100| 0| 0

 

 

LSE:

 

140403/0300Z 153 04010KT 28.7F SNOW 9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.170 9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0
140403/0600Z 156 08015KT 27.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.060 9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.23 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/0900Z 159 07014KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.40|| 0.385 9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.47|| 0.61 0| 0|100
140403/1200Z 162 07013KT 29.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.081 9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.55|| 0.70 0| 0|100
140403/1500Z 165 04010KT 30.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.47|| 0.447 9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 1.02|| 1.14 0| 0|100
140403/1800Z 168 03014KT 29.0F SNOW 10:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.378 10:1| 5.4|| 0.00|| 1.02|| 1.52 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/2100Z 171 03015KT 28.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 9:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 1.02|| 1.58 100| 0| 0
140404/0000Z 174 01009KT 27.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 9:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 1.02|| 1.62 100| 0| 0
140404/0300Z 177 35010KT 26.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 10:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 1.02|| 1.68 100| 0| 0
140404/0600Z 180 34012KT 24.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 6.9|| 0.00|| 1.02|| 1.69 100| 0| 0

[Money]

So far no major differences through HR 108. Storm developing out in the west, same location/strength as 18z. Storm for monday looks nearly exactly the same. 

[Money]

0z GFS is 4-7 from LSE to GB and NW. About 2-3 here with freezing rain (0.3-0.5) across S. WI

[Geos]

Ice would be limited close to the lake in that setup. South central WI could be in trouble that night.