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April 2014 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I'm seeing the GFS starting to take on a lower lakes cutter and that would fit the SW Flow of the LRC cycle.  Doesn't look like its going to be a CO Low type feature.  This system will eject out of the 4 corners region.  12z GFS has a 6-12" band in N KS/N MO.

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Again Nebraska swings and misses. Tom do you think there is any chance of this shifting to a CO Low feature?  What needs to happen for a change?

It very well could still. Theres just so much time for things to change I wouldnt lose hope for yourself.

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Chicago Bufkit

 

140402/1500Z 123 07008KT 36.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140402/1800Z 126 07011KT 38.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140402/2100Z 129 04012KT 30.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.014 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140403/0000Z 132 06013KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.023 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.04 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/0300Z 135 02014KT 31.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.091 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.13 0| 0|100
140403/0600Z 138 06014KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.16 0| 0|100
140403/0900Z 141 05014KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.21 0| 0|100
140403/1200Z 144 05015KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.184 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.39 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/1500Z 147 05016KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.47 0| 0|100
140403/1800Z 150 03018KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.50 0| 0|100
140403/2100Z 153 04017KT 33.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.50 0| 0| 0
140404/0000Z 156 03014KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.50 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0300Z 159 04012KT 31.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140404/0600Z 162 05014KT 30.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140404/0900Z 165 04019KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.014 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140404/1200Z 168 05017KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.04 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/1500Z 171 04022KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.04 0| 0| 0
140404/1800Z 174 04021KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.108 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.15 0| 0|100
140404/2100Z 177 03016KT 32.3F SNPL 10:1| 3.6|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.369 10:1| 3.6|| 0.18|| 0.16|| 0.52 76| 13| 11
140405/0000Z 180 03016KT 31.9F SNOW 9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 10:1| 4.7|| 0.18|| 0.16|| 0.65 100| 0| 0

 

 

4.7 SN

0.16 FZR

0.18 Sleet

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Wow, the Canadian Model came south.  I am south of I-80 about 18 miles and 30 miles north of the Kansas border in South Central Nebraska.  This would be very close to a great situation for us.  Rain or snow would be much appreciated.  Thanks for your help Tom.  I have learned a lot by following your posts.

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After this system next week, the GFS shows a zonal flow straight through till 384 hours. Been showing the same thing for the last several runs. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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After this system next week, the GFS shows a zonal flow straight through till 384 hours. Been showing the same thing for the last several runs. 

 

It showed the same thing for this upcoming week like 3-4 days ago and we've seen what happened.

 

I wouldn't believe anything the models say until like 5-6 days out

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Next Wednesday/Thursday could be pretty cold and wet.

 

And the Euro isn't optimistic about any warmth beyond that.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014032812!!chart.gif

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12Z Euro shifted the snow way NW. It's mostly confined to the Dakotas now. It's now looking like all rain around here. It also looks like we may be done with snow for this winter, but anything can happen. A SE trend has to happen or else we are just going to get a lot of rain. 

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12Z Euro shifted the snow way NW. It's mostly confined to the Dakotas now. It's now looking like all rain around here. It also looks like we may be done with snow for this winter, but anything can happen. A SE trend has to happen or else we are just going to get a lot of rain. 

It is the only model showing this right now and we all know how well the Euro has done this winter. Maybe it will be right but most likely outcome will be that it trends farther south.

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It is the only model showing this right now and we all know how well the Euro has done this winter. Maybe it will be right but most likely outcome will be that it trends farther south.

 

GFS is siding with it now as far as the cold air is disconnected from the system. Major rain producer.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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nothing worse than a cold rain

 

Much of Iowa needs a good soaking, but the cold and wind with the rain sucks.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Better than cold and wind with no precipitation..

 

Rain will get the lakes opened up and the ground dethawed the rest of the way.

 

April has its fair share of those kinds of days in any year.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS Bufkit:

 

MKE

 

140402/1200Z 108 05009KT 28.8F SNPL 7:1| 0.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.041 7:1| 0.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.04 64| 36| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140402/1500Z 111 07015KT 27.6F SNPL 6:1| 1.2|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.202 6:1| 1.5|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.24 52| 48| 0
140402/1800Z 114 08015KT 27.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 6:1| 2.1|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
140402/2100Z 117 09015KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.019 6:1| 2.1|| 0.22|| 0.02|| 0.37 0| 0|100
140403/0000Z 120 05017KT 30.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.080 6:1| 2.1|| 0.22|| 0.10|| 0.45 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/0300Z 123 06016KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.060 6:1| 2.1|| 0.22|| 0.17|| 0.51 0| 0|100
140403/0600Z 126 07014KT 31.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.048 6:1| 2.1|| 0.22|| 0.22|| 0.55 0| 0|100
140403/0900Z 129 05014KT 31.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 6:1| 2.1|| 0.22|| 0.23|| 0.56 0| 0|100
140403/1200Z 132 04014KT 30.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 2.1|| 0.22|| 0.23|| 0.56 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140403/1500Z 135 05013KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 2.1|| 0.22|| 0.23|| 0.56 0| 0| 0
140403/1800Z 138 03012KT 31.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140403/2100Z 141 03014KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140404/0000Z 144 02012KT 31.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/0300Z 147 02014KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140404/0600Z 150 04015KT 31.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140404/0900Z 153 05015KT 30.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140404/1200Z 156 05019KT 30.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/1500Z 159 04024KT 30.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
140404/1800Z 162 03021KT 31.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
140404/2100Z 165 02023KT 30.8F SNOW 9:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.333 10:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0
140405/0000Z 168 01020KT 30.3F SNOW 15:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089 11:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140405/0300Z 171 02021KT 29.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 10:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 100| 0| 0
140405/0600Z 174 02018KT 29.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 0| 0| 0
140405/0900Z 177 02017KT 28.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 0| 0| 0

 

1st wave:

 

0.23 FZR

0.22 SLT

2.1 SN

 

2nd Wave:

 

6.0 SN

 

ORD

 

140404/0300Z 147 03011KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140404/0600Z 150 04013KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140404/0900Z 153 04014KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140404/1200Z 156 05019KT 30.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.025 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.04 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140404/1500Z 159 04022KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.05 0| 0|100
140404/1800Z 162 03014KT 32.3F SNPL 6:1| 2.1|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.352 6:1| 2.1|| 0.34|| 0.04|| 0.40 52| 40| 8
140404/2100Z 165 03022KT 32.1F SNOW 4:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.530 5:1| 4.4|| 0.34|| 0.04|| 0.93 100| 0| 0
140405/0000Z 168 02016KT 31.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 5:1| 4.7|| 0.34|| 0.04|| 0.98 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140405/0300Z 171 02017KT 30.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 5:1| 4.8|| 0.34|| 0.04|| 1.01 100| 0| 0
140405/0600Z 174 01014KT 29.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 5:1| 4.9|| 0.34|| 0.04|| 1.02 100| 0| 0
140405/0900Z 177 01012KT 28.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 5:1| 4.9|| 0.34|| 0.04|| 1.02 0| 0| 0
140405/1200Z 180 01012KT 26.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 5:1| 4.9|| 0.34|| 0.04|| 1.02 0| 0| 0

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